the current russian fashion market from recession via ... · 629 334400 53 198 404 132 511 275...

The current Russian Fashion Market from

recession via stabilization and transition to

a new growth phase

Reinhard E. Döpfer

Senior Advisor and Liaison Officer of SCHNEIDER GROUP for the European Fashion Industry

UK & Russian fashion markets – Growth kicks off again?

London, March 30

Import dynamics in USD from 2014

until 2016, H1 2016

2 accounting | ERP | import | legal | tax

- 18%

- 39%

- 8%

0%

- 35%

- 5%

- 10%

-32%

-8%

2014/2013 2015/2014 2016/2015

Обувь Одежда Ткани

About -40% in average for 3 years.

Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service

Apparel, footwear, fabrics’ retail price

dynamics, relative to 1H of the

previous year, 2012-2016


5.0% 4.7% 5.5%

15.6%

12.6%

6.4% 5.3% 4.7%

9.6% 10.4%

5.1% 4.8%

4.7%

9.7%

12.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

1H 2012 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2015 1H 2016

Ткани Одежда и белье Обувь Over the whole period

of decline – since

November 2014 –

consumer prices grew

by 21.5%, coinciding with the

index for non-food

products

Food prices increase

during this period

reached 24.1%, service

prices growth – 17.1%.

Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service

Negative import dynamics for

Russia


-2.4%

-5.3%

-39.2%

-45.0%

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014

Apparel import dynamics, US dollars

7.9%

-19.4%

-41.1%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014

Shoe import dynamics, US dollars

Significant finished goods and raw materials imports decline

-19.6%

-2.5%

-43.3%

-50.0%

-45.0%

-40.0%

-35.0%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

2013/2012 2014/2013 2015/2014

Fabric import dynamics, US dollars

– 43% fabrics

– 41% shoes

– 39% apparel

Footwear & Apparel Exports from EU-28,

Germany, Italy, UK to Russia 2014-2016

in 1000 €


Footwear 2014 2015 %

16/14 2016

%

16/15

EU-28 1.051.390 689.534 - 34 689.504 - 0

Germany 83.430 56.677 - 32 67.563 + 19

Italy 503.365 340.697 32 328.595 - 4

United Kingdom 7.106 5.055 29 4.035 - 20

Apparel 2014 2015 % 16/14 2016 %

16/15

EU-28 2.963.045 2.102.162 - 29 2.061.950 - 2

Germany 633.095 444.392 - 30 400.052 - 10

Italy 1.041.128 719.931 - 9 766.056 + 6

United Kingdom 166.643 88.122 - 47 59.480 - 33

Fashion market volume & dynamics

2012 – 2017p in billion Rubles


Source: FCG estimation

Fashion market volume (apparel,

footwear, accessories) in 2016:

2295 billion rubles ($34.3 billion).

Dynamics of the market in 2016:

1% by 2015 in rubles (10.2% in $).

Optimistic forecast of the market

growth (2017FO) - up to 9% in rubles

(11.5% in dollars) can be realized in

case of macroeconomic and political

situation improvement and further

strengthening of ruble.

Pessimistic forecast (2017FP) is

up to 5% in rubles (4.8% in dollars) in

case of slow pace of economic

development and stabilization of

oil prices.

2362.0 2448.0 2497.0 2272.3 2295.6 2410.4

6.0%

3.6%

2.0%

-9.0%

1.0%

5.0%

9.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2150.0

2200.0

2250.0

2300.0

2350.0

2400.0

2450.0

2500.0

2550.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F

Volume (bln. rub) Dynamics, % (rub) 2017FP

Dynamics, % (rub) 2017FO

Fashion market volume and

dynamics 2012-2017p in billion USD


EURO 1H 2H 2013 40,74 42,27 2014 47,96 50,46 2015 63,99 67,43 2016 78,25 75,11

US Dollar

1H 2H

2013 31,00 31,82

2014 34,97 37,97

2015 57,20 60,66

2016 70,10 66,90

Average nominal exchange rate

of US dollar and euro to ruble for

the period from the beginning of

the year (Source: cbr.ru)

76.0 76.9 65.8 37.5 34.3 36.0

0.1% 1.2%

-14.5%

-43.0%

-10.2%

4.8%

11.5%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017FP

Volume (bln. $) Dynamics, % ($) 2017FP

Dynamics, % ($) 2017FO

Source: FCG estimation

Market structure by fashion

segments


Retail market structure –

apparel, footwear and

accessories segments

shares – remains

practically unchanged

over the past 5 years. 61.4%

27.0%

11.6% apparel

footwear

accessories

Fashion market structure

(apparel, footwear, accessories) 2016, %

Product categories’ shares generally coincide with the ones of developed markets of Europe

and the US, and will remain unchanged in the long term period.

TOP 12 apparel retail players’

market shares


Source: FCG estimation based on Retailer.ru rating

Inditex group of

companies 21%

Ostin LLC 11%

Gloria Jeans CJSC

8% Centrobuv

8%

Kari LLC 7%

H&M 8%

Mercury Group 7%

Bosco di Ciliegi

6%

Factor LLC 5%

Moneks Trading

LLC 5%

SK Trade LLC 5%

LPP S. A. 5%

Kaltsru LLC 4%

Market volume by age and gender


391.7 424.5 409.0 413.2

661.0 674.2

613.5 619.8

1395.4 1396.3

1249.8 1262.6

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

2013 2014 2015 2016

Women

Men

Children

55%

27%

18%

Women Men Children

Market volume by age-gender

segments, 2013-2016F, billion rubles Market shares by age-gender

segments, 2016F, %

Fashion retail price point

segmentation


MARKET SEGMENTS CORE PRICE EXAMPLES OF BRANDS

HIG

H

LUXE

LUXE

DESIGNER

PRET-A-PORTE

from 35 000 RUB PRADA, CHANEL, CHRISTIAN DIOR,

BALMAIN, CAROLINA HERRERA

PREMIUM

DESIGNERS

PRET-A-PORTE

+ BRIDGE BRANDS

21 000 RUB ESСADA, MAXX MARA, HUGO BOSS

BASLER, MARCCAIN, LUISA CERANO

MID

DL

E MIDDLE UP BETTER 12 000 RUB

KAREN MILLEN, PENNY BLACK, BETTY

BARСLAY, GERRY WEBER, PATRIZIA

PEPE

MIDDLE GOOD 3500 RUB

BENETTON, RIVER ISLAND, ZARA,

TOPSHOP, MEXX, GAP, MANGO,

CONCEPT CLUB, RESERVED, BAON

LO

WE

R

(e

co

no

my/

bu

dg

et)

LOWER MODERATE 1200 RUB

H&M, SAVAGE, NEW YORKER,

GLORIA JEANS, OODJI

FAMILIA, O’STIN, SELA

ECONOMY BUDGET till 700 RUB STOCK CENTER, AUCHAN


Tendencies of Russian and international

clothing retail chains’ development


137

242

570

383

171 138

260

648

313

150 217

404

131

236

504

319

171 139

253

629

334

53

198

404

132

220

511

275

138 121

236

632

333

46

179

410

0100200300400500600700

2014

2015

2016

Russian players 2014-2016

Global players 2014-2016


84 71

37 39

67 58

76 75 85 87

96 115

36 43 40

59

79 78 88

97 103 117

36 51

37

67

89 86 94

020406080

100120

2014

2015

2016

UK apparel exports to Russia by

best selling categories, 2016 vs. 2015

13 accounting | ERP | import | legal | tax Source: European Fashion + Textile Export Council (EFTEC), 2016

MEN‘S & BOYS‘ OUTERWEAR, WOVEN & KNITTED

MEN‘S TROUSERS

WOVEN SHIRTS, BUSINESS + CASUAL

COATS + OUTDOOR

JACKETS

MEN‘S SINGLE

JACKETS

DRESSES

TROUSERS

BLOUSES

SWEATERS, CARDIGANS, TWIN-SETS

COATS + OUTDOOR JACKETS

DENIM TROUSERS

MEN‘S + BOYS

UNDERWEAR

FEMALE UNDERWEAR

WOMEN‘S & GIRLS‘ OUTERWEAR, WOVEN & KNITTED

INTIMATE APPAREL FOR MEN & WOMEN

€ 4,000 mn. € 8,000 mn. € 0 mn.

€ 6,188 (- 16%)

€ 1,582 mn. (- 17%)

€ 2,052 mn. (- 17%)

€ 2,244 mn. (52%)

€ 2,390 mn. (43 %)

€ 4,522 mn. (- 27%)

€ 5,074 mn. (- 36%)

€ 6,502 mn. (- 38%)

€ 1,096 mn. (- 26%)

€ 3,441 mn. (- 21%)

€ 1,955 mn. (- 27%)

€ 1,293 mn. (- 14%)

14

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the copyright permission. © SCHNEIDER GROUP www.schneider-group.com

Reinhard E. Döpfer

Senior Advisor and Liaison Officer of SCHNEIDER

GROUP for the European Fashion Industry

[email protected]


http://www.schneider-group.com/







www.schneider-group.com

accounting | ERP | import | legal | tax

russia

ukraine

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kazakhstan

germany

poland

the current russian fashion market from recession via ... · 629 334400 53 198 404 132 511 275...

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