the current situation. what we thought would happen the “bumpy plateau”
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Current SituationThe Current Situation
![Page 2: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What We Thought Would Happen
The “Bumpy Plateau”
![Page 3: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What Actually Happened
![Page 4: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Peak Oil Crashed The Financial System
![Page 5: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Without Increased Energy InputsThere’s No Economic “Growth”
![Page 6: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Without growth, the financial system is not sustainable
![Page 7: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Without “Growth,” Debt Can’t Be Repaid
![Page 8: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
US Is Broke at All Levels
Unable To Service Debt
![Page 9: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The USA Blew It
Frankenstein Securities = Experiment That Failed
![Page 10: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Frankenstein Securities Are Dead
No More Ability to Generate Further Massive Credit
![Page 11: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Revolving Credit EconomyIs Gone Forever
=
![Page 12: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Without Lavish Credit
Middle Class Ceases To Exist
![Page 13: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Capital is Flying Out of the System
![Page 14: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
America’s Oil Problem
![Page 15: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The Old Theory
![Page 16: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
A New Wrinkle
Credit Dmitry Orlov for Ingenius Chart
![Page 17: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Financial Crisis > Commercial Crisis > Political Crisis
Global Oil Production Collapses Much Faster
![Page 18: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Problems We Already Know About:
• Oil Export Crisis
• Oil Nationalism
• Sclerotic Infrastructure
• Aging Oil Workforce
• Geopolitical Friction
• Canceled Projects
![Page 19: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
The Zombie Economy
![Page 20: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Why Are These People Laughing?
![Page 21: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
I Will Give You More Bonds Tomorrow
For a Hamburger Today
![Page 22: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What Now ? ? ?
![Page 23: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Complex Systems Break Down
![Page 24: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
The Way We Produce Our Food
![Page 25: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
The Way We Do Commerce
![Page 26: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
The Way We Move Across The Landscape
![Page 27: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
The Way We Inhabit The Landscape
![Page 28: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
AlsoBankingOil MarketsSchoolingMedicineEt Cetera. . . .
![Page 29: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
So-Called “Solutions” or “Intelligent Responses”
Fuggeddabowdit(Techno-grandiosity)
Intelligent Response:Urban Edge Meets
Productive Farmland
“Solution” - Electric Car
![Page 30: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Demographic Shifts Coming
![Page 31: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Where the Action Will Be
![Page 32: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Where The Action Will Be Also
![Page 33: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Where the Action Won’t Be
![Page 34: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Future Urban Development
Smaller IncrementHuman ScaleFiner Details
Project: Broekpolder District The Netherlands
Rob Krier, Architect
![Page 35: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Fuhgeddabowdit
![Page 36: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Toast
![Page 37: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Example of Compound FailureThe Demise of Happy Motoring
![Page 38: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
The Future of Happy Motoring
![Page 39: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
We’re Too Dumb To Do This
Not “Cutting Edge” Enough
![Page 40: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
De-Complexifying the Hard Way
![Page 41: The Current Situation. What We Thought Would Happen The “Bumpy Plateau”](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f2b5503460f94c46b83/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Downscaling And Relocalization