the daily forecaster 2nd april 2009

7/29/2019 The Daily Forecaster 2nd April 2009

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Improve your profitability by simple

changes to your trader's mind

The analysis utilized in The Daily Forecaster is primarily based around the Elliott Wave Principle which identifies both the manner in which price moves and also the

common ratios in projections and retracements. Ian Copsey identified an incorrect assumption made in R.N. Elliotts observations and has adapted the structures in a

manner which provide superior support and resistance levels. The key to the technique is that, with the background of cyclic behavior, as long as the current position is

recognized it will not only imply how price will develop but also provide a framework of support & resistance levels that should hold while that structure is valid. Therefore,

not only is it possible to trade on these levels but also to trade on breaks which indicate either that the underlying directional move is continuing or indeed breaking

down. The most profitable subscribers to The Daily Forecaster often make their most profitable trades on these breaks. Thus take note of the guidelines just below the

daily bias for examples of what trades should be considered.

all that impressive and does still generate blocks in my mind that maybe well see one small attempt higher

but not too far beyond what weve seen maybe 1.3070-92 EURUSD and 1.1552-80 USDCHF

The situation in the Europeans needs some TLC so best be cautious than reckless but also remember as we go

forward there is an increasing risk of the Dollars downtrend resuming. Overall I have targets around 1.43

EURUSD and 1.0740 USDCHF

Elsewhere the JPY crosses look mixed and need to break out of their ranges. AUSUSD may well have problems

getting through 0.7030-54 initially at least while USDCAD looks more and more as if its going to retest the

1.2189-00 lows

Good luck.

Please note that The Daily Forecaster will take a break around Easter from 10th April to 14th April.

DISCLAIMER: Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated

trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your

trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not

result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views

expressed in Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses

incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.

i n f o@fx- f o recas ter . comw w w . f x - f o r e c a s t e r . c o m

Ian Copsey

After a mostly directionless day we are left in pretty much the same position as I described yesterday. There

are a few more clues but still the conflict between wanting one more Dollar rally and the imminence of what

should soon be a solid decline keeping us hanging in a void.

Firstly, USDJPY remained locked into the range of the single sharp drop seen at the start of Asian trading

yesterday. There are no points awarded for guessing that a break of the 98.21-99.46 range has a high chance

of producing a decent move. If there is any stronger argument it is on the downside but while Im getting more

& more nervous of what I feel is the impending drop I will only look for the 97.10-26 area and from there the

final rally should develop.

The Dollar drifted lower to sideways against EURUSD and USDCHF but lost out more heavily in GBPUSD. I

almost feel that the lack of any push higher yesterday should imply that we have seen the Dollar highs and

thus the downtrend can resume. However, yesterdays weakness was not

2 n d A p r i l 2 0 0 9

Genera l Ou t look

h t t p : / / w w w . f x - f o r ec as t e r .c o m / D a il y Fo r e ca s t .h t m l

F o r t he t r ade s e t - ups a t t h e h i gh l i gh ted po ten t i a l t r ade l ev e l s in y es te r day ' s r epo r t p l eas e s ee:
mailto:[email protected]://www.fx-forecaster.com/http://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.htmlhttp://www.fx-forecaster.com/DailyForecast.htmlhttp://www.tradeamillion.com/index.php?section=177&page=88&aff=tmiancop01mailto:[email protected]://www.fx-forecaster.com/


2/6

S u m m a r y

USDJPY Resistance

1 0 1 . 0 6 - 3 0

1 0 0 . 6 6

9 9 . 9 6

9 9 . 4 6 - 5 6

9 9 . 0 5

1 Go to detailed analysis 9 8 . 7 3

EURUSD Resistance

1 . 3 5 3 8 - 7 2

1 . 3 4 8 4

1 . 3 4 0 2 - 3 0

1 . 3 3 8 4

1 . 3 3 1 8 - 4 4

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 . 3 2 8 6

USDCHF Resistance

1 . 1 6 3 1 - 5 21 . 1 5 7 9

1 . 1 5 3 0 - 5 2

1 . 1 5 0 5

1 . 1 4 7 3


GBPUSD Resistance

1 . 4 7 3 1 - 7 7

1 . 4 6 8 1

1 . 4 6 2 0 - 4 0

1 . 4 5 7 2

1 . 4 5 4 1

2 Go to detailed analysis 1 . 4 5 0 2 - 2 5

AUDUSD Resistance

0 . 7 2 6 8

0 . 7 2 0 6

0 . 7 1 7 70 . 7 1 3 0

0 . 7 0 9 2

1 Go to detailed analysis 0 . 7 0 3 6 - 5 4

USDCAD Resistance

1 . 2 7 4 3

1 . 2 4 1 3

1 . 2 6 7 0 - 7 5

1 . 2 6 3 5

1 . 2 6 0 5


EURJPY Resistance

1 3 4 . 5 1

1 3 3 . 9 1 - 1 0

1 3 3 . 3 1

1 3 2 . 6 0

1 3 1 . 9 0

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 3 1 . 3 3 - 5 0

GBPJPY Resistance

1 4 7 . 4 7

1 4 6 . 1 0

1 4 5 . 4 1

1 4 5 . 0 7

1 4 4 . 4 0

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 4 3 . 5 0 - 7 2

1 . 1 1 5 7 - 6 8

1 . 3 0 7 0 - 9 2

Suppor t

1 4 0 . 2 0 - 3 0

The cap just 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and decline is threatening to allow the larger downtrend to resume. Still

there are some support areas to break to provide final confirmation. A move below 1.1420-25 would extend the

downside to 1.1380 again and while it may cause a correction I feel that we shall eventually see follow-through below

the 1.1340-56 pivot support and corrective low. Once seen expect additional declines to 1.1222-40 which should hold for

a correction. Next supports are at the 1.1157-67 lows...1 . 1 2 4 0

1 . 1 2 2 2

1 . 4 4 3 0

1 . 3 1 6 6 - 9 0

1 . 3 1 4 5

1 . 1 3 4 0 - 5 6

1 . 1 3 1 3

Suppor t

1 . 1 3 8 0

The so f t dec l i ne yes te rday l ooks l i ke caus ing a b reak h ighe r t oday

1 . 4 3 2 7

9 7 . 6 8

I f ee l t he re i s we igh t enough t o send th i s back t o 97 .10 -26 ( max 96 .77 )

9 8 . 2 1

9 5 . 9 8

9 7 . 1 0 - 2 6

Price moved sideways yesterday but is edging lower this morning and I feel that it is just a matter of time before the

98.21-38 lows are broken and confirm a deeper correction to the rally from 95.98. Take care as there may be one last

attempt back towards 98.73-99.05. Thus only look to sell at break of the 98.20 level and once seen we should see

losses extend to 97.68 and later to 97.10-26. I think this will hold but keep in mind lower support at 96.50-77. Only

breach of this support extends the decline back to the 95.98 low.

Suppor t

1 . 3 2 4 7

9 6 . 7 7

Suppor t

9 7 . 9 0

No break of 1.3160-65 failed to see the expected losses and this has allowed price to recover to 1.3286. Indeed, if this

high breaks it will look more and more like the uptrend is resuming. Thus breach would imply follow-through to 1.3318

at least and I suspect 1.3342-44 where a correction is possible. While this remains above 1.3280 I will expect follow-

through above 1.3344 up to 1.3402-30. Take care here again. Only breach will provide the next step higher to 1.3484-

98 at least and more likely 1.3538-72.

Lack o f f o l l ow- th rough h ighe r yes te rday l eaves t he down s ide vu lne rab le

1 4 2 . 2 1

1 4 1 . 7 3

1 4 1 . 3 0

1 4 0 . 6 8

1 . 3 2 2 0

1 . 3 1 1 2

I f ee l t he 0 .7036-54 a rea shou ld s ta l l t he ra l l y - on l y above ex tends t o 0 .7092 and poss ib ly h i gh Suppor t

This barely saw any downside at all yesterday and the depth of gains seen thus far certainly looks as if we have seen the

extent of the downside. I see support at 1.4430-50 and while this holds the upward momentum should take price higher

through 1.4501-25 (may stall briefly) and on towards 1.4572 and 1.4620-40 where I expect a cap to develop for a

correction lower. Only above 1.4640 would put pressure on the 1.4777 high.

1 . 4 2 3 4 - 5 2

1 . 4 3 8 6 - 0 0

1 . 4 3 5 3

1 . 2 5 5 3 - 6 1

1 . 2 3 8 9

I t ' s a b i t d i f f i cu l t t o cat ch t h i s m id - ra l l y bu t w h i l e 1 .4430-50 suppor t s we shou ld see ga ins t o 1 .4

The move above 0.6910-25 has generated a solid rally which has approached the 0.7030-50 resistance. Take care here

as I feel there is some risk of a pullback. Thus only look for follow-through if the 0.7054 corrective high is broken and if

seen this would extend the rally to the 0.7092 high. Again, this should be treated with caution and only a move throughhere and 0.7110 would maintain the upward momentum for 0.7177-06 and possibly all the way to the 0.7267 high.

0 . 6 9 9 5 - 0 0

0 . 6 9 7 4

0 . 6 9 5 00 . 6 5 0 5 - 2 5

0 . 6 8 5 5

1 . 4 4 5 0

1 . 2 3 1 3 - 4 0

We cou ld s t i l l be i n a s i deways conso l ida t i on be fo re t he n ex t l eg h i ghe r Suppor t

0 . 6 8 1 5 - 2 0

I f ee l w e a re seeing a d rop t owards t he 1 .2453-82 a rea en rou te t he 1 .2313-40 p i vo t suppor t Suppor t

The 1.2630 area held for a while but breach is providing a more bearish structure. There is minor support at 1.2540 that

has potential to generate a correction but while this remains below 1.2605 I feel it will not be long before we see a

break below 1.2540 for a retest of 1.2501 at least. Take care her as this could cause a correciotn. Breach would extend

the decline to 1.2453-82 which should produce a correction.

1 . 2 5 4 0

1 . 2 5 0 1

1 . 2 4 8 2

1 2 7 . 7 2

Whi le 142 .75 suppor t s a b reak above 143 .50 -72 w ou ld see 144 .00 and 144 .40 a t l eas t

1 2 6 . 4 3

Price remained in quite a tight range yesterday and this morning's recovery is somewhat encouraging for a bullish

structure but I'm not sure we're going to break higher today. There is resistance in the 131.33-50 area and this needs to

break for price to retest the 131.90 high. Even this could hold in a flat correction. Thus if bullish we're going to have to

wait for a break above 131.90 and only if seen would I look for the underlying rally to extend towards 133.31 at least

and probably 133.91-10.

1 3 0 . 7 0

1 2 9 . 8 6 - 1 1

1 2 9 . 1 6

1 2 8 . 5 2

It was actually GBPUSD which dragged price higher here and this has broken above the 142.80 peaks this morning. The

break does seem to suggest follow-through. Thus while the 142.75 area supports I suepct we'll see a move back above

the 143.50-72 resistance to 144.00 at least and I suspect 144.40. Also note the 145.07 high but I am rather doubtful

we'll see it this high or break. Only above 145.07 woudl see price extend to 145.41 and 146.10.

Suppor t

1 4 2 . 7 5


3/6

9 8 . 5 3

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore it is likely that any losses are corrective only. Note support levels thatcould stall any decline. Consider bullish set up patterns at key support levels or should price threaten to break above any key resistance levels thatwould indicate a possible resumption of the move higher. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break.

99.56-67 or 97.10-26 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t :

Dai ly Bu l l ish

2

Dai ly Bear ish

1

1.3266

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is bullish. Caution is advised but there is a mild preference for gains within a consolidation.

However, be aware of the risk of choppy price action that could hit stops. Therefore take note of both daily & MT S&R and confirm any bullish tradewith bullish set up patterns. It would also be advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support bullish trades.

1.3344 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t :

Dai ly Bu l l ish

1

Dai ly Bear ish

3

99 .96

9 9 . 4 6 - 5 6

Med te rm

Bear ish

99 .05

95 .98

I f ee l t he r e i s w e i gh t enough to s end th i s back t o 97 .10 - 26 ( max 96 .77 )

96 .77

97 .90

98 .73

97 .68

USDJPY 2nd Ap r i l 2009Pr ice

1 0 1 . 0 6 - 3 0

100 .66

9 7 . 1 0 - 2 6

Suppo r t

98 .21

Resistance

2nd April: I remain looking for a major high and feel the 102-103 area is the likely top. Only an earlier break below 95.98 and 95.51 would send price

much lower to retest the 93.54 low and probably beyond.

EURUSD Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

2nd April: We are coming towards the major cycle high and thus I see strength over the next week but above the 99.67-95 area to go on to reach

the 102.46-103.20 target. However, do note a short target at 101.30. Anything above here risks a sharp reversal.

Med Term

Bul l ish

Price moved sideways yesterday but is edging lower this morning and I feel that it is just a matter of time before the 98.21-38 lows are broken and

confirm a deeper correction to the rally from 95.98. Take care as there may be one last attempt back towards 98.73-99.05. Thus only look to sell at

break of the 98.20 level and once seen we should see losses extend to 97.68 and later to 97.10-26. I think this will hold but keep in mind lower

support at 96.50-77. Only breach of this support extends the decline back to the 95.98 low.

Given the tight range trading yesterday we are pretty much in the same position described yesterday but the weakness being seen this morning is

shifting the risk to the downside. A break below the 98.21 low should provide better buying levels and I feel this will be in the 97.10-26 area and at

most 96.50-77. Only an earlier break back above 98.73 & 99.05 would extend the upward momentum above the 99.46-63 area and onto 100.54-76

and probably the 101.06 resistance. From here expect a correction. Resistance also at 101.30.

1 . 3 3 1 8 - 4 4

1 .3286

Suppo r t

1 .3247

1 . 3 0 7 0 - 9 2

T he s o f t dec l i ne y es te r day l ook s l i k e c ausi ng a b r eak h i ghe r t oday

No break of 1.3160-65 failed to see the expected losses and this has allowed price to recover to 1.3286. Indeed, if this high breaks it will look more

and more like the uptrend is resuming. Thus breach would imply follow-through to 1.3318 at least and I suspect 1.3342-44 where a correction is

possible. While this remains above 1.3280 I will expect follow-through above 1.3344 up to 1.3402-30. Take care here again. Only breach will provide

the next step higher to 1.3484-98 at least and more likely 1.3538-72.

Resistance

1 . 3 5 3 8 - 7 2

1 .3484

Med Term

Bul l ish

2nd April: There seems to be a significant risk that we have seen the low or any dip will be contained by the 1.3070-62 area. Thus any break above

1.3286 and 1.3344 will begin to generate steady gains through 1.3538-72 at least. Above there will be the 1.3737 high.

I was a bit disappointed by the lack of decline yesterday but with no break of 1.3160-65 the signs were there I do see one minor risk of a dip but if

this is seen it should be shallow and stall around the 1.3070-92 area. To see this we need the 1.3286 high to hold and for a drop below 1.3220-47

and most important 1.3166. If seen then it will open the risk for a push back to the 1.3112 low and just below at 1.3070-92 which should support.

Only breach resurrects the 1.2930-45 target.

1 . 3 4 0 2 - 3 0

1 .3384

1 .3220

1 . 3 1 6 6 - 9 0

1 .3145

1 .3112

98.20

Cons ider buy se t ups a t :

Med te rm

Bear ish

1st April: While yesterday's high holds there still remains room for losses to 1.2990, 1.2930-45 and possibly what appears to be a favored target now

at 1.2864. Only below 1.2800 would suggest deeper losses

1.3165



4/6

1.1428

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore the main risk is lower. Ensure that key resistances levels hold.Note key support levels that would suggest continuation of the bearish move. Consider confirming this with a bearish set up pattern in price oran indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal higher should key MT resistance break and is supported by a bullish set up in price or an indicator.

1.1510 or at 1.1340-50 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 1.1335

Dai ly Bu l l ish

2

Dai ly Bear ish

2

1.4491

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore it is likely that any gains are corrective only. Note resistance levels that

could stall any rally. Consider bearish set up patterns at key resistance levels or should price threaten to break below any key support levels thatwould indicate a possible resumption of the move lower. Only consider a possible larger reversal higher should key MT resistance break.

1.4430-50 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 1.4620-40

Dai ly Bu l l ish

1

Dai ly Bear ish

2

I was rather disappointed we didn't see further losses and for now the bearish stance is best left aside until there is some evidence of stronger

weakness. There is resistance at 1.4502-25 and this could cause a correction and if so then I doubt we'll get much below 1.4430 if at all. Thus only

look for stronger losses again if we see a break below 1.4420 and if seen would highlight the risk of a push back to 1.4353 and the 1.4234-52 area.

Med te rm

Bear ish

2nd April: The downside scenario appears to be losing its grip and thus only a break back below 1.4320 and 1.4252 would begin to rise the chance of

a push back towards the 1.4110 low

This barely saw any downside at all yesterday and the depth of gains seen thus far certainly looks as if we have seen the extent of the downside. I see

support at 1.4430-50 and while this holds the upward momentum should take price higher through 1.4501-25 (may stall briefly) and on towards

1.4572 and 1.4620-40 where I expect a cap to develop for a correction lower. Only above 1.4640 would put pressure on the 1.4777 high.

Med Term

Bul l ish

2nd April: The breaks back above 1.4390 & 1.4440 are providing a stronger picture that should bring a retest of the 1.4777 high again. On the way

there is resistance at 1.4620-40 which should cause a correction.


1 . 4 2 3 4 - 5 2

I t ' s a b i t d i f f i c u l t t o c at c h t h i s m i d - r a l l y bu t w h i l e 1 .4430- 50 s uppor t s w e s hou l d s ee gai ns t o 1 .4620- 40

1 .4430

1 . 4 3 8 6 - 0 0

1 .4353

1 .4327

GBPUSD Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

The cap just 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and decline is threatening to allow the larger downtrend to resume. Still there are some support

areas to break to provide final confirmation. A move below 1.1420-25 would extend the downside to 1.1380 again and while it may cause a correction

I feel that we shall eventually see follow-through below the 1.1340-56 pivot support and corrective low. Once seen expect additional declines to

1.1222-40 which should hold for a correction. Next supports a re at the 1.1157-67 lows...

Med te rm

Bear ish

1st April: If we reach the 1.1652-74 area I feel this will provide a cap and therefore look for a reversal pattern. Any earlier break below 1.1340 would

threaten direct losses that should stall in the 1.1157-1.1222 area for a pullback and then lower again.

Yesterday's gains stalled 6 pips above the 1.1499 resistance and since then there have been steady losses which do seem to put any bullish stance in

the background. If there is any chance of another push higher then the 1.1380 lows must remain intact. Then a break back above 1.1442-73 will

provide the basis for a break above yesterday's 1.1505 high and extend the rally to 1.1530-52 at least and probably 1.1579. Next major resistance is

at 1.1631-52 & 1.1674.

Med Term

Bul l ish

2nd April: We may well have seen the top already at 1.1548 and only a move back above 1.1530-48 would maintain the potential for the recovery

reaching 1.1579 and 1.1652-74. However, it does seem to be growing more unlikely.


1 .1222

1 . 1 1 5 7 - 6 8

Lack o f f o l l ow - th r ough h i ghe r y es te r day l eav es t he dow ns i de v u l ne r ab l e

1 .1380

1 . 1 3 4 0 - 5 6

1 .1313

1 .1240

1 .1442

Suppo r t

1 .1579

1 . 1 5 3 0 - 5 2

1 .1505

1 .1473

Resistance

1 . 4 7 3 1 - 7 7

1 .4681

1 . 4 6 2 0 - 4 0

1 .4572

1 .4541

1 .4450

Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

1 . 4 5 0 2 - 2 5

Suppo r t

Resistance

1 . 1 6 3 1 - 5 2

USDCHF


5/6

0.7024

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needsconfirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is veryimportant that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks.

0.7060 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 0.7033-54

Dai ly Bu l l ish

3

Dai ly Bear ish

1

1.2547

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported

However, be aware of the risk of choppy price action that could hit stops. Therefore take note of both daily & MT S&R and confirm any bearish tradewith bearish set up patterns. It would also be advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support bearish trades.

1.2453-61 (with care) Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 1.2580

Dai ly Bu l l ish

2

Dai ly Bear ish

3

This morning's fall below 1.2572 appears to have broken the bullish structure so we should be expecting a stronger decline. We are currently testing

the 1.2501-40 support and this broad area is the last chance that a bullish structure cann develop. We shall need to see the 1.2580 resistance boken

to avoid further falls and only if seen will it mean additional gains back towards 1.2605. However, at this point I feel it should cap. Thus only breach

will allow a stronger recovery back to 1.2670-75 at least and possibly the 1.2704-13 highs.

Med Term

Bul l ish

2nd April: I was too bullish it seems with this morning's losses appearing to be too much to retain a bullish stance. Only a break back above 1.2605

would bring relief for 1.2670-75 and the 1.2713 high en route 1.2783-1.2806..

The 1.2630 area held for a while but breach is providing a more bearish structure. There is minor support at 1.2540 that has potential to generate a

correction but while this remains below 1.2605 I feel it will not be long before we see a break below 1.2540 for a retest of 1.2501 at least. Take care

her as this could cause a correciotn. Breach would extend the decline to 1.2453-82 which should produce a correction.

Med te rm

Bear ish

1st April: The bounce from 1.2501 is more bullish and thus only a break back below 1.2575 followed by 1.2487-00 would raise the risk of sharper

losses back into the 1.1189-1.2340 range.

1 . 2 3 1 3 - 4 0

I f ee l w e a r e s ee i ng a d r op t ow ar ds t he 1 .2453- 82 a r ea en r ou te t h e 1 .2313- 40 p i v o t s uppor t

1 .2482

1 .2580

Suppo r t

1 .2540

1 .2635

1 . 2 5 5 3 - 6 1

1 .2389

If there is any hope for some downward movement then the 0.7030-54 area can provide a correction at least. There is pivot support at 0.6995-00 and

this needs to break to generate a stronger correction lower. If seen then look for the downside to extend further towards support at 0.6950 at least.

Take care here as a push back higher is possible. Below 0.6945 maintains the downward momentum for 0.6905-25 and at most the 0.6855 corrective

low.

Med te rm

Bear ish

31st March: Higher support targets have already been achieved and with a bullish divergence we have to be cautious about further losses. Thus only

back below 0.6865 would suggest potential for 0.6734 and 0.6630

Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

1 .2501

Resistance

1 .2743

1 .2413

1 . 2 6 7 0 - 7 5

1 .2605

The move above 0.6910-25 has generated a solid rally which has approached the 0.7030-50 resistance. Take care here as I feel there is some risk of

a pullback. Thus only look for follow-through if the 0.7054 corrective high is broken and if seen this would extend the rally to the 0.7092 high. Again,

this should be treated with caution and only a move through here and 0.7110 would maintain the upward momentum for 0.7177-06 and possibly all

the way to the 0.7267 high.

Med Term

Bul l ish

1st April: We are stuck between two alternatives and require a swift resumption of the upside above 0.6910-25 and 0.6968 to maintain the upward

momentum for 0.7030-50 and potentially the 0.7092 high again. Above sees resistance at 0.7268-0.7308.

0 .6855

0 . 6 8 1 5 - 2 0

I f ee l t he 0 .7036- 54 a r ea s hou l d s ta l l t he r a l l y - on l y abov e ex tends t o 0 .7092 and pos s i b l y h i ghe r


0 . 6 9 9 5 - 0 0

0 .6974

0 .6950

0 . 6 5 0 5 - 2 5

Resistance

0 .7268

0 .7206

0 .7177

0 .7130

0 .7092

0 . 7 0 3 6 - 5 4

Suppo r t

AUDUSD Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

USDCAD



6/6

131.05

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needsconfirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is veryimportant that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks.

131.60 (with care) Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 131.33-50 (with care) or at 128.50

Dai ly Bu l l ish

3

Dai ly Bear ish

1

143.08

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Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs

confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is veryimportant that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks.

142.75 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 145.00 (with care)

Dai ly Bu l l ish

3

Dai ly Bear ish

1

I have been a bit surprised with the break higher this morning and thus I'll be cautious about the downside. There is pivot support at 142.75 now and

this must break to generate any meaningful losses. If seen then it would appear that we have seen a false break higher and thus the next move

should be lower for 141.30 but take care as this should generate a correction at least. next support is then seen at 140.20-30.

Med te rm

Bear ish

2nd April: I'm concentrating on the 144.00-40 resistance and also 145.07 to see what reactin we see. A break below 141.30 and then 140.20 is

needed to start talking about a larger decline.

It was actually GBPUSD which dragged price higher here and this has broken above the 142.80 peaks this morning. The break does seem to suggest

follow-through. Thus while the 142.75 area supports I suepct we'll see a move back above the 143.50-72 resistance to 144.00 at least and I suspect

144.40. Also note the 145.07 high but I am rather doubtful we'll see it this high or break. Only above 145.07 woudl see price extend to 145.41 and

146.10.

Med Term

Bul l ish

2nd April: The consolidation area seems to be breaking and thus a test of 144.00 and the 145.07 high is possible. If broken the higher target lies at

146.10 which should cap.


140 .68

1 4 0 . 2 0 - 3 0

Whi l e 142 .75 s uppor t s a b r eak abov e 143 .50 - 72 w ou l d s ee 144 .00 and 144 .40 a t l eas t

142 .75

142 .21

141 .73

141 .30

Resistance

147 .47

146 .10

145 .41

145 .07

144 .40

1 4 3 . 5 0 - 7 2

Suppo r t

GBPJPY Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

Med te rm

Bear ish

1st April: We've seen a solid recovery and I still feel there should be one more high here. Thus only below 127.04 would begin to pressure the 126.43

low and potentially 125.07 below which stronger losses will beckon

No break lower yesterday but we may just still be within a sideways consolidation. If the 131.33-50 area caps then look for losses to move back

130.70 and probably the 129.86-11 area. At this point I feel it will hold. Any breach would actually look more bearish and if seen would extend the

decline to 129.16-23 at least and at most 128.52. At this point I feel it will hold. Only break of 128.50 would generate stronger losses.

130 .70

1 2 9 . 8 6 - 1 1

129 .16

128 .52

We c ou l d s t i l l be i n a s i dew ay s c ons o l ida t i on be fo r e t he nex t l eg h i ghe r

Price remained in quite a tight range yesterday and this morning's recovery is somewhat encouraging for a bullish structure but I'm not sure we're

going to break higher today. There is resistance in the 131.33-50 area and this needs to break for price to retest the 131.90 high. Even this could

hold in a flat correction. Thus if bullish we're going to have to wait for a break above 131.90 and only if seen would I look for the underlying rally to

extend towards 133.31 at least and probably 133.91-10.

Med Term

Bul l ish

1st April: The recovery has been firm and to avoid a sideways consolidation we're going to need a break above the 131.90 high today. If seen I can

see room for a follow-through into the 133.91-134.51 area but probably then a correction.

132 .60

131 .90

1 3 1 . 3 3 - 5 0

Suppo r t

134 .51

1 3 3 . 9 1 - 1 0

EURJPY Pr ice 2nd Ap r i l 2009

127 .72

126 .43

133 .31

Resistance


the daily forecaster 2nd april 2009

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