the daily forecaster 31st march 2009[1]

7/29/2019 The Daily Forecaster 31st March 2009[1]

1/6

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The analysis utilized in The Daily Forecaster is primarily based around the Elliott Wave Principle which identifies both the manner in which price moves and also the

common ratios in projections and retracements. Ian Copsey identified an incorrect assumption made in R.N. Elliotts observations and has adapted the structures in a

manner which provide superior support and resistance levels. The key to the technique is that, with the background of cyclic behavior, as long as the current position is

recognized it will not only imply how price will develop but also provide a framework of support & resistance levels that should hold while that structure is valid. Therefore,

not only is it possible to trade on these levels but also to trade on breaks which indicate either that the underlying directional move is continuing or indeed breaking

down. The most profitable subscribers to The Daily Forecaster often make their most profitable trades on these breaks. Thus take note of the guidelines just below the

daily bias for examples of what trades should be considered.

lower. However, once it reaches my target Ill be looking for a sizeable recovery then.

The exception to the Dollars strength was USDJPY which failed to overcome the required break level to send it

higher. This triggered losses which promptly moved to just a little below my 96.20 support. I am ever-aware of

the daily cycle high due at any time but until yesterdays low breaks Ill still prefer a scenario that calls for a

move above 102.00 over the course of this week. That event should signal a reversal

The losses in USDJPY spilled over into the JPY crosses which extended losses more than I had anticipated. It

does make me a touch uncomfortable but they do look bullish today.

USDCAD rallied exceptionally well and to even just above the 1.2630 target. We should see a pullback at the

very least but we need take care as it is smack in the middle of a very indecisive area since I feel it should rally

just at the time where Im expecting the Dollar to be generally weak.

Good luck.

DISCLAIMER: Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated

trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your

trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not

result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views

expressed in Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses

incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.

i n f o@fx- f o recas ter . comw w w . f x - f o r e c a s t e r . c o m

Ian Copsey

Well, so much for expecting a correction before the Dollar made further gains It made its intentions well

know early in European trading and blew a hole through all the resistance levels I thought would hold and in

many cases extended those gains to the levels that I thought wed be seeing today or tomorrow.

At the Dollars peaks yesterday we did see bearish divergences form so its not impossible that we have already

seen the full extent of the correction from the Dollar lows seen around 10 days ago. A resumption of the

medium term Dollar decline against the Europeans hasnt quite been confirmed so we should hold back a little

until these confirmations have been seen. Until then there is still the slight chance that we could see one more

rally.

One of the reasons for my caution is that I am not totally convinced that we have seen the low in GBPUSD. My

favored target remains between 1.3842 and 1.3948. Yesterdays 1.4110 low was a valid projection but it does

leave the low in an area which doesnt seem to fit in with the larger picture. Thus while the 1.4347-67 (max

1.4421) area holds any pullback beware of another spike

3 1 s t M a r ch 2 0 0 9

Genera l Ou t look

h t t p : / / w w w . f x - f o r ec as t e r .c o m / D a il y Fo r e ca s t .h t m l

F o r t he t r ade s e t - ups a t t h e h i gh l i gh ted po ten t i a l t r ade l ev e l s in y es te r day ' s r epo r t p l eas e s ee:
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2/6

S u m m a r y

USDJPY Resistance

1 0 1 . 3 0

1 0 0 . 5 4 - 7 6

9 9 . 5 2 - 6 7

9 8 . 8 6

9 8 . 6 0

1 Go to detailed analysis 9 8 . 3 0 - 3 6

EURUSD Resistance

1 . 3 4 2 5 - 3 0

1 . 3 3 7 1

1 . 3 3 5 1

1 . 3 2 8 0 - 0 5

1 . 3 2 4 4

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 . 3 2 2 5

USDCHF Resistance

1 . 1 6 9 61 . 1 6 5 2 - 7 4

1 . 1 6 2 3

1 . 1 5 8 0

1 . 1 5 4 8

2 Go to detailed analysis 1 . 1 5 1 0 - 1 5

GBPUSD Resistance

1 . 4 6 2 0 - 4 0

1 . 4 5 1 5 - 2 0

1 . 4 4 4 4

1 . 4 4 2 1

1 . 4 3 6 7

2 Go to detailed analysis 1 . 4 3 2 2 - 4 7

AUDUSD Resistance

0 . 7 0 4 9

0 . 7 0 1 6

0 . 6 9 6 90 . 6 9 4 6

0 . 6 8 9 2 - 0 3


USDCAD Resistance

1 . 2 8 4 2

1 . 2 7 3 0 - 7 0

1 . 2 7 1 2

1 . 2 6 7 9

1 . 2 6 4 6


EURJPY Resistance

1 3 2 . 6 0

1 3 1 . 8 2

1 3 1 . 4 2

1 3 1 . 0 6

1 3 0 . 6 0

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 3 0 . 0 8

GBPJPY Resistance

1 4 5 . 0 7

1 4 3 . 5 0 - 7 2

1 4 2 . 8 6

1 4 1 . 9 5

1 4 1 . 4 9

1 Go to detailed analysis 1 4 0 . 7 1 - 0 0

1 . 1 2 4 9

1 . 2 9 3 0 - 6 4

Suppor t

1 3 6 . 8 0 - 0 0

The high at 1.1548 has come with a bearish divergence and this does seem to suggest that we have seen the end of the

recovery. This morning's break below 1.1475 has a minimum target at 1.1402 and normally we'd expect a small

correction from around this area. Any extension below 1.1400 would risk follow-through to 1.1320-53 which is also a

pivot supprot area and thus take care as a pullback is possible from here. Breach would open the floor for losses to

extend to 1.1249 and possibly all the way to the 1.1157 low.1 . 1 3 2 0 - 5 3

1 . 1 2 8 7

1 . 4 2 3 5

1 . 3 1 1 2

1 . 3 0 6 8

1 . 1 4 0 2

1 . 1 3 7 5

Suppor t

1 . 1 4 4 6

A b reak above 1 .3225 shou ld ex tend ga ins t o 1 .3305 and poss ib l y h i gher

1 . 4 1 1 0 - 3 0

9 7 . 0 3 - 1 4

Whi le 97 .78 suppor t s l ook f o r ga ins c l ose t o 98 .86 aga in

9 7 . 7 8

9 5 . 3 1

9 6 . 7 5

The 98.30-37 resistance was not touched yesterday and instead we saw losses deepen all the way to the 96.20 support

and just below at 95.98. However, this low should now be the spring board for the final rally to the 102.-103 target.

Today should see 97.78 support and extend the immediate rally to the 98.86 high. However, this should trigger a

correction and I suspect this is going to stall around the 97.42-78 area again. A break above 98.86 would provide the

momentum for a retest of the 99.67 high at least...

Suppor t

1 . 3 1 7 3 - 0 0

9 5 . 9 8

Suppor t

9 7 . 4 2

The loss of 1.3171-1.3210 opened the floodgates for stronger losses that stalled just above the 1.3070-92 support.

There is a bullish divergence in the hourly chart and this morning's push above 1.3208 is threatening a break of 1.3225

which should prompt follow-through. Take a little care at 1.3244 but I feel this move should reach 1.3305 at least.

Indeed, this area is likely to cause a small correction but then allow the rally to extend towards 1.3371 and 1.3425-30 at

least.

The b reak be low 1 .1475 shou ld see l osses t o 1 .1402 a t l eas t and may i nd i ca te 1 .1320-53

1 3 9 . 3 0

1 3 8 . 9 5

1 3 8 . 5 6

1 3 7 . 6 0 - 9 0

1 . 3 1 4 4

1 . 2 9 9 5 - 1 0

A decen t pu l l back has been seen and on l y above 0 .6873 w i l l ex tend ga ins t o 0 .6903 & 0 .6946 Suppor t

Losses were strong and the break of 1.4170 supplied the leg down to 1.4110. There was no bullish divergence and with

my targets much lower I am reluctant to turn bullish just yet. There is resistance around 1.4322-47 which I feel may

hold (max 1.4367) and from here a break back below 1.4270 shoudl extend losses once again to 1.4210 and 1.4110-30

initially and while this could cause a pullback I feel the larger risk is still lower. Note support at 1.4011-49 and 1.3948...

1 . 4 0 1 1 - 4 9

1 . 4 2 1 0

1 . 4 1 6 7

1 . 2 4 1 8

1 . 2 3 6 4

I ' m more m ixed he re and see res i s tance a t 1 .4347-67 tha t m us t b reak t o sus ta i n ga ins

Break of the 0.6865 low triggered a strong follow through to stall 4 pips above the 0.6865 support. We have seen a

move higher already this morning but I feel that the 0.6873 high may be tough to break on this test. Thus wait for break

which should maintain the bullish momentum for 0.6903 at least and potentially 0.6946. Around this higher resistance

(and possibly just below) we should see a correction lower. Thus only above 0.6950 would trigger further gains to

0.6969 and 0.7016 at least.

0 . 6 8 4 0

0 . 6 8 1 0

0 . 6 7 6 90 . 6 7 3 4

0 . 6 7 1 6

1 . 4 2 7 0

1 . 2 3 3 0 - 4 0

I l ook f o r t he 128 .56 -91 a rea t o suppor t and fo r ga ins back above 130 .08 f o r 131 .42 Suppor t

0 . 6 6 3 0 - 7 1

Mixed - wa i t i ng f o r b reaks Suppor t

The break above 1.2444 did indeed generate strong gains as expected that reached the 1.2630 target and just above at

1.2646. There is quite a firm bearish divergence and thus we have to be cautious about the upside and would require a

break back above 1.2606 to return to the 1.2646 high and in turn a break there should trigger stronger follow-through

to 1.2679 minimum and I suspect further to the 1.2730-70 resistance. I feel this will cap if seen and generate a

correction. Further resistance is found at 1.2842-68.

1 . 2 5 3 5 - 5 0

1 . 2 4 8 7

1 . 2 4 5 5

1 2 7 . 5 3

We shou ld see the 139 .30 a rea (max 138 .95 ) suppor t f o r ga ins t o 140 .71 -00 and poss ib l y 141 .9

1 2 6 . 4 3

Losses were more aggressive than expected reaching just below the 126.69 support, stalling at 126.43. The recovery

from there has been constructive and I feel there is further to go but not before a correction. I see early trading

extending the pullback to the 128.56-91 area which I feel will support. From there look for a return to this morning's

130.08 high and while it should cause a small pullback I feel there is risk for the rally to extend to 131.06 at least and

more likely the 131.42 area where I feel we will see a cap.

1 2 9 . 4 0

1 2 8 . 9 1

1 2 8 . 5 6

1 2 8 . 2 0

Losses were slightly stronger than expected yesterday and this really does cause some confusion. However, having

stalled just above the 134.87 swing low I do feel that we should see a push higher first. I see resistance at 140.71-00

and while this caps any pullback should remain above the 138.95-139.30 support. From here (or directly) a break back

above 141.00 would maintain gains for 141.95 at least. Take care around here. Next resistance is at 142.86 and then

stronger at 143.50-72.

Suppor t

1 3 9 . 9 0


3/6

9 7 . 9 6

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold.Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price oran indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator.

97.40-60 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t :

Dai ly Bu l l ish

1

Dai ly Bear ish

1

1.3218

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is bullish. Caution is advised but there is a mild preference for gains within a consolidation.

However, be aware of the risk of choppy price action that could hit stops. Therefore take note of both daily & MT S&R and confirm any bullish tradewith bullish set up patterns. It would also be advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support bullish trades.

1.3305-15 (with care) Cons ider se l l se t ups a t :

Dai ly Bu l l ish

1

Dai ly Bear ish

3

9 9 . 5 2 - 6 7

98 .86

Med te rm

Bear ish

98 .60

95 .31

Whi l e 97 .78 s uppor t s l ook f o r ga i ns c l ose t o 98 .86 aga i n

95 .98

97 .42

9 8 . 3 0 - 3 6

9 7 . 0 3 - 1 4

USDJPY 31s t March 2009Pr ice

101 .30

1 0 0 . 5 4 - 7 6

96 .75

Suppo r t

97 .78

Resistance

27th March: The rally continues and I feel the most we are likely to see on the downside is around 96.00-25. Thus only begin to look at stronger

losses below here and 95.30 If seen it should cause a retest at 93.54.

EURUSD Pr ice 31s t March 2009

30th March: We are coming towards the major cycle high and thus I see strength over the next 5-8 days but above the 99.67-95 area to go on to

reach the 102.46-103.20 target.

Med Term

Bul l ish

Breach of 97.70 and then 97.38 had a big enough impact to send price all the way down to just below the 96.20 support. I am aware of the larger

daily cycles finding a high and thus we do need to understand that any drop now below 97.40 and 97.03 could prove fatal. If seen then expect a

retest of the 95.98 low and if it breaks then I feel we may have seen a major high already and thus expect stronger losses to 95.31, 94.80 and finally

to the 93.54 low...

The 98.30-37 resistance was not touched yesterday and instead we saw losses deepen a ll the way to the 96.20 support and just below at 95.98.

However, this low should now be the spring board for the final rally to the 102.-103 target. Today should see 97.78 support and extend the immediate

rally to the 98.86 high. However, this should trigger a correction and I suspect this is going to stall around the 97.42-78 area again. A break above

98.86 would provide the momentum for a retest of the 99.67 high at least...

1 .3244

1 .3225

Suppo r t

1 . 3 1 7 3 - 0 0

1 . 2 9 3 0 - 6 4

A b r eak abov e 1 .3225 s hou l d ex tend ga i ns t o 1 .3305 and pos s ib l y h i ghe r

The loss of 1.3171-1.3210 opened the floodgates for stronger losses that stalled just above the 1.3070-92 support. There is a bullish divergence in

the hourly chart and this morning's push above 1.3208 is threatening a break of 1.3225 which should prompt follow-through. Take a little care at

1.3244 but I feel this move should reach 1.3305 at least. Indeed, this area is likely to cause a small correction but then allow the rally to extend

towards 1.3371 and 1.3425-30 at least.

Resistance

1 . 3 4 2 5 - 3 0

1 .3371

Med Term

Bul l ish

30th March: The pullback should continue into mid week but the favored support will either be at 1.3070-90 or 1.2930-45 and from there look for

additional gains. Only a prior move back above 1.3450 would threaten an earlier resumption of gains.

Having almost reached the 1.3070-92 support the downside has become lower risk but I can't rule it out completely. There is resistance at 1.3225-44

and while this caps any reversal back below 1.3173-00 should provide another test lower to retest yesterday's 1.3112 low and then 1.3068 at least.

Take care as this is a valid support and could generate a larger reversal higher. Below 1.3065 triggers losses to the next larger support at 1.2930-64

but if this is seen I feel this would be the final low...

1 .3351

1 . 3 2 8 0 - 0 5

1 .3144

1 .3112

1 .3068

1 . 2 9 9 5 - 1 0

98.86 (with care)

Cons ider buy se t ups a t :

Med te rm

Bear ish

25th March: We seem to be seeing the pullback but while this remains above 1.3334 I still see more upside risk. Thus, only a breach of 1.3325 would

reverse and prompt initial losses to 1.3232 and later to 1.3070-90 and possibly 1.2930.

None



4/6

1.1478

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is bearish. Therefore the main risk is lower. Ensure that key resistances levels hold.Note key support levels that would suggest continuation of the bearish move. Consider confirming this with a bearish set up pattern in price oran indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal higher should key MT resistance break and is supported by a bullish set up in price or an indicator.

1.1400 (with care) Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 1.1657-84

Dai ly Bu l l ish

2

Dai ly Bear ish

2

1.4310

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bearish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needs

confirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move lower. It is veryimportant that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks.

None Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 1.4347-67 (with care)

Dai ly Bu l l ish

3

Dai ly Bear ish

2

Losses were strong and the break of 1.4170 supplied the leg down to 1.4110. There was no bullish divergence and with my targets much lower I am

reluctant to turn bullish just yet. There is resistance around 1.4322-47 which I feel may hold (max 1.4367) and from here a break back below 1.4270

shoudl extend losses once again to 1.4210 and 1.4110-30 initially and while this could cause a pullback I feel the larger risk is st ill lower. Note support

at 1.4011-49 and 1.3948...

Med te rm

Bear ish

30th March: I was quite satisfied with Friday's losses but these have not been deep enough to suggest a retest of 1.3653. However, while the 1.4358-

90 (max 1.4436) resistance caps I feel it is possible to eventually reach the 1.3842-1.3948 area.

Losses were much stronger than anticipated but overall this supports my view. I see resistance at 1.4322-47 that should be tested at a minimum and

at most 1.4367. However, to generate a stronger rally we'll need breach of 1.4370 which would then trigger follow-through to 1.4421. Take a little

care here as it could cap. However, I feel that any break above 1.4367 should imply a stronger recovery to 1.4444 and probably 1.4515-20. Also note

resistance at 1.4555 and 1.4620-40.

Med Term

Bul l ish

30th March: We are seeing losses and I suspect these should continue over the early part of this week. Only back above 1.4390 & 1.4440 would

begin to bring back more bullish potential and if so then note the 1.4522 and 1.4570-00 resistance.


1 . 4 0 1 1 - 4 9

I 'm m or e m i x ed he r e and s ee r es i stanc e a t 1 .4347- 67 tha t m us t b r eak t o s us ta i n ga i ns

1 .4235

1 .4210

1 .4167

1 . 4 1 1 0 - 3 0

GBPUSD Pr ice 31s t March 2009

The high at 1.1548 has come with a bearish divergence and this does seem to suggest that we have seen the end of the recovery. This morning's

break below 1.1475 has a minimum target at 1.1402 and normally we'd expect a small correction from around this area. Any extension below 1.1400

would risk follow-through to 1.1320-53 which is also a pivot supprot area and thus take care as a pullback is possible from here. Breach would open

the floor for losses to extend to 1.1249 and possibly all the way to the 1.1157 low.

Med te rm

Bear ish

31st March: A peak at 1.1548 and this looks very likely to cause direct losses that should eventually break below the 1.1157 low and eventually

target the 1.0682-1.0739 area. However, this could be complicated since the low is not expected until mid-April.

Price initially struggled in early trading but finally broke above 1.1494 but then also through 1.1505 to reach 8 pips above the higher 1.1540

resistance. A bearish divergence has formed in the hourly chart and thus it is probable that we saw the final corrective high at 1.1548. Only a break

back above 1.1510-15 would trigger a second test at 1.1548 and above there implies a move through to the 1.1657-74 area for a high.

Med Term

Bul l ish

30th March: The move we are seeing now is a correction and should stall around the 1.1657-74 area (max 1.1696.) Thus only above here extends to

1.1774 and maybe then the 1.1966 high.


1 .1287

1 .1249

T he b r eak be l ow 1 .1475 s hou l d s ee l oss es t o 1 .1402 a t l east and m ay i nd i c a te 1 .1320- 53

1 .1446

1 .1402

1 .1375

1 . 1 3 2 0 - 5 3

1 . 1 5 1 0 - 1 5

Suppo r t

1 . 1 6 5 2 - 7 4

1 .1623

1 .1580

1 .1548

Resistance

1 . 4 6 2 0 - 4 0

1 . 4 5 1 5 - 2 0

1 .4444

1 .4421

1 .4367

1 .4270

Pr ice 31s t March 2009

1 . 4 3 2 2 - 4 7

Suppo r t

Resistance

1 .1696

USDCHF


5/6

0.6859

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is neutral. This may indicate price consolidation or an unclear wave structure that needsconfirmation. Note key MT support & resistance levels that may break the MT trend or would suggest a resumption of the move higher. It is veryimportant that you consider either bullish or bearish set up patterns in indicators or lower time frame charts to support S&R breaks.

0.6950 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 0.6940-46 with care

Dai ly Bu l l ish

3

Dai ly Bear ish

1

1.2569

Go to :

Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is neutral while the daily bias is neutral. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported

by bullish or bearish set up patterns. It is advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support a trade in either direction.It may well be advisable to take profits when seen or if there is a larger break out to consider using a trailing stop to protect profits.

1.2455-87 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 1.2450

Dai ly Bu l l ish

3

Dai ly Bear ish

3

The break above 1.2444 did indeed generate strong gains as expected that reached the 1.2630 target and just above at 1.2646. There is quite a firm

bearish divergence and thus we have to be cautious about the upside and would require a break back above 1.2606 to return to the 1.2646 high and

in turn a break there should trigger stronger follow-through to 1.2679 minimum and I suspect further to the 1.2730-70 resistance. I feel this will cap

if seen and generate a correction. Further resistance is found at 1.2842-68.

Med Term

Bul l ish

31st March: We have reached the lower target resistance at 1.2630 and a small breach to 1.2646. Only a break above here would maintain the

upward momentum for 1.2712 minimum and potentially 1.2730-70 which I feel would provoke a correction if seen.

With a bearish divergence having formed at just above the 1.2630 resistance I feel there is a good argument for a bigger pullback. We shall need the

1.2606-46 area to cap. A break below the 1.2549 seen thus far and also 1.2535, the larger risk will be lower to 1.2487-00 at least and I suspect

1.2455. Take care here as this should cause a correction higher. Thus only below 1.2450 maintains losses for 1.2418, 1.2364 and stronger pivot &

Fibonacci support at 1.2330-40.

Med te rm

Bear ish

31st March: Having reached 1.2630-46 there is every risk that we'll see a pullback at the very least. A break below 1.2535 followed by 1.2455

would see 1.2330-40 at least. If this breaks a retest of the 1.2189-00 lows is likely.

1 . 2 3 3 0 - 4 0

Mi x ed - w a i t i ng f o r b r eak s

1 .2455

1 .2606

Suppo r t

1 . 2 5 3 5 - 5 0

1 .2679

1 .2418

1 .2364

Once the 0.6865 support gave way losses were quite direct and reached the 0.6865 support area swiftly. We have already seen a pullback higher to

0.6873 and this places us right in the middle of a trading area where we could see a move in either direction... If we see a move to 0.6940-46 I

suspect this will generate a peak and thus look for selling opportunities. Any earlier break below 0.6810 would return price to the 0.6769 low and

possibly further to 0.6734 at least. Only breach then sees 0.6630.

Med te rm

Bear ish

31st March: Higher support targets have already been achieved and with a bullish divergence we have to be cautious about further losses. Thus only

back below 0.6865 would suggest potential for 0.6734 and 0.6630

Pr ice 31s t March 2009

1 .2487

Resistance

1 .2842

1 . 2 7 3 0 - 7 0

1 .2712

1 .2646

Break of the 0.6865 low triggered a strong follow through to stall 4 pips above the 0.6865 support. We have seen a move higher already this morning

but I feel that the 0.6873 high may be tough to break on this test. Thus wait for break which should maintain the bullish momentum for 0.6903 at

least and potentially 0.6946. Around this higher resistance (and possibly just below) we should see a correction lower. Thus only above 0.6950 would

trigger further gains to 0.6969 and 0.7016 at least.

Med Term

Bul l ish

30th March: I do feel that we shall eventually see a move above 0.7092 but more likely we shall see better buying levels - and feel these may be

around the 0.6734-65 area. Only an earlier break above 0.7005 area would threaten an earlier retest of 0.7092...

0 .6716

0 . 6 6 3 0 - 7 1

A dec en t pu l l back has been s een and on l y abov e 0 .6873 w i l l ex tend ga i ns t o 0 .6903 & 0 .6946


0 .6840

0 .6810

0 .6769

0 .6734

Resistance

0 .7049

0 .7016

0 .6969

0 .6946

0 . 6 8 9 2 - 0 3

0 .6873

Suppo r t

AUDUSD Pr ice 31s t March 2009

USDCAD



6/6

129.88

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Summary

USDJPY

EURUSDUSDCHF

GBPUSD

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EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold.Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price oran indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator.

128.56-91 Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 131.06-42

Dai ly Bu l l ish

1

Dai ly Bear ish

1

140.42

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Summary

USDJPY

EURUSD

USDCHF

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

USDCAD

EURJPY

GBPJPY

Bias

The underlying direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold.

Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price oran indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator.

141.05 with care Cons ider se l l se t ups a t : 141.95 or 143.50-72

Dai ly Bu l l ish

1

Dai ly Bear ish

1

After a strong down day yesterday I don't see much room for losses today. If the 140.71-00 resistance caps then we could see a pullback and if so

then a move back below 140.50 and 139.90 should allow a test of 139.30. However, beyond that I have my doubts. Thus only if this area breaks

would there appear to be risk of another decline to 138.56. Break there opens up 137.60-90 and the 136.80-00 area.

Med te rm

Bear ish

31st March: Losses were stronger than expected but remained above the key 134.87 major corrective low and while I don't think we shall see a new

high I feel we'll have to be patient for a few more days to see stronger losses.

Losses were slightly stronger than expected yesterday and this really does cause some confusion. However, having stalled just above the 134.87

swing low I do feel that we should see a push higher first. I see resistance at 140.71-00 and while this caps any pullback should remain above the

138.95-139.30 support. From here (or directly) a break back above 141.00 would maintain gains for 141.95 at least. Take care around here. Next

resistance is at 142.86 and then stronger at 143.50-72.

Med Term

Bul l ish

31st March: I feel we are going to see some consolidation but this does imply initial gains. I suspect these will reach 141.95 at a minimum and

possibly 142.86 and maximum 143.50-72. Only above this area would raise the risk of a closer retest of the 145.07 high.


1 3 7 . 6 0 - 9 0

1 3 6 . 8 0 - 0 0

We s hou l d s ee the 139 .30 a r ea ( m ax 138 .95 ) s uppor t f o r ga i ns t o 140 .71 - 00 and pos s ib l y 141 .95

139 .90

139 .30

138 .95

138 .56

Resistance

145 .07

1 4 3 . 5 0 - 7 2

142 .86

141 .95

141 .49

1 4 0 . 7 1 - 0 0

Suppo r t

GBPJPY Pr ice 31s t March 2009

Med te rm

Bear ish

25th March: I feel we may have seen an intermediate (but not final) high at 134.50. If so then there is risk of losses to 127.30 & 126.68 which I think

will hold. However, note the next support at 125.06. Only below here would trigger stronger losses.

Losses were very strong and pushed the lower supports, stalling a little way below the 126.69 support. I feel this has probably completed the

correction. Currently we have seen a peak at 130.08 and this does seem to suggest a pullback lower to 129.40 at least and probably down to the

128.56-91 area. I feel this will hold for further gains. Thus only below 128.50 would t rigger follow-through for yesterday's 126.43 low and potentially

125.07.

129 .40

128 .91

128 .56

128 .20

I l ook f o r t he 128 .56 - 91 a r ea t o s uppor t and fo r ga i ns bac k abov e 130 .08 f o r 131 .42

Losses were more aggressive than expected reaching just below the 126.69 support, stalling at 126.43. The recovery from there has been

constructive and I feel there is further to go but not before a correction. I see early trading extending the pullback to the 128.56-91 area which I feel

will support. From there look for a return to this morning's 130.08 high and while it should cause a small pullback I feel there is risk for the rally to

extend to 131.06 at least and more likely the 131.42 area where I feel we will see a cap.

Med Term

Bul l ish

31st March: Having seen the downside reach 126.42 I feel we should now be in store for a move to new highs. This should see the 128.56-91 area

support for extension to 131.42 at least and maybe further with the 134.51 high the obvious first target.

131 .06

130 .60

130 .08

Suppo r t

132 .60

131 .82

EURJPY Pr ice 31s t March 2009

127 .53

126 .43

131 .42

Resistance


the daily forecaster 31st march 2009[1]

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