the delphi method final ppt
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
INTRODUCTION
![Page 2: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
DELPHI METHOD
• The Delphi Method seeks to achieve a consensus amonggroup members through a series of questionnaires.
• The series of questionnaires sent either by mail or viacomputerized systems, to a pre-selected group ofexperts.
• Nobody ‘looses face’ because the questionnaires areanswered anonymously and individually by each memberof the group.
• The answers are summarized and sent back to the groupmembers along with the next questionnaire.
![Page 3: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• This process is repeated until a group consensus is reached.
This usually only takes two iterations, but can sometimes takes
as many as six rounds before a consensus is reached
![Page 4: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
DELPHI METHOD IS MOST SUITABLE• The Delphi method is especially useful for futuristic
Projects (long-range forecasting 20-30 years), as expertopinions are the only source of information available.Ex.Master plan
• Top secret and complex military projects
• When time & cost constraints make frequent face-to-facemeetings difficult to arrange.
• When the heterogeneity of the participants must bepreserved and anonymity assured.
• In situations where there is no clear-cut resolution of agiven policy issue
![Page 5: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
DELPHI POSITIVE• Anonymity can be guaranteed, anonymity for participants
make contributions of ideas a safe activity
• Conducted in writing and does not require face-to-face meetings
• responses can be made at the convenience of the participant
• Opportunities for large number of experts to participate
• Opportunities for participants to reconsider their opinions
• Gives access to groups of widely dispersed experts
Continued
![Page 8: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
• Time for reflection, improving the strength of opinion.
• Participants have an equal say
• Greater acceptance of Delphi results than other consensus
methods.
• Learning and motivating experience for participants.
• Highly cost-effective, when conducted by experts
• Relatively free of social pressure, personality influence, and
individual dominance and is, therefore, conducive to independent
thinking and gradual formulation of reliable judgments or
forecasting of results
![Page 9: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
DELPHI NEGATIV’S
• Large amount of time to conduct several rounds
• The complexity of data analysis
• The difficulty of maintaining participant enthusiasmthroughout process
• Potential of Low Response Rates Due to the multiple feedback processes
• The power of persuasion or prestigious individuals to shape group opinion
• The vulnerability of group dynamics to manipulation
![Page 10: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
• Manipulation, the responses can be altered by the
monitors in the hope of moving the next round
responses in a desired direction. Care needed in
this regard
• The bandwagon effect of a majority opinion
• Ambiguity regarding panel size and consensus
levels required
![Page 11: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
APPLICABLE FOR
• Water supply
• Transport
• Land value
• Proximity to facilities
![Page 12: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
TRADE OFF GAME
• A trade-off (or tradeoff) is a situation that
involves losing one quality or aspect of
something in return for gaining another quality or
aspect.
• if one thing increases, some other thing must
decrease
![Page 13: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
• For example:
BRTS:20C/Km
MRTS:50C/Km
SUBURBAN:150C/Km
METRO:300C/Km
Benefits satisfied and costly
![Page 14: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
SIMULATION MODEL
Simulation means reproduction
Reproducing the spatial pattern
Creating and analyzing a digital prototype of a physical
model
To predicts its performance in the real world.
![Page 15: The delphi method final ppt](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022102614/55a6ac031a28abd5018b47b7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)