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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MULTIDISCIPLINARY ADVANCED RESEARCH TRENDS ISSN : 2349-7408 VOLUME IV, ISSUE 1(3) JANUARY, 2017

217

THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF PULSES AND ITS

IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY IN INDIA

K. SOLMON RAJU PAUL

Assistant Research Officer, CCS

Ch. SATISH KUMAR, B. SARATH BABU PG Student, Department of Agricultural Economics,

Agricultural College, ANGRAU, Bapatla.

ABSTRACT

Pulses are popularly known as “Poor man’s meat” & are important sources

of proteins, vitamins and minerals known as grain legume and “rich man’s

vegetable”, that contribute significantly to the nutritional security of the country.

India is the largest producer, consumer and also the largest importer of pulses in the

world. The total production of pulses in India was 18.5 million tons during the year

2014-15. The world total production of pulses is around 72 MT in the year 2014-15.

India has an average productivity of 911kg/ha for the year 2014-15. Food production

is the base for the food security. Food security issues depend on several factors such

as growth trends in population, per capita income, urbanization, changes in taste in

the era of globalization and future growth of the bottom-most section of the

population. Food security is defined as an economic access to food along with food

production and food availability. Food security is a situation in which both food

supply and effective demand are sufficient to cover nutritional requirements.

Indicators of food security are household food availability, household food

consumption and nutritional status. The per capita consumption of the pulses has

been declining regardless of fall in the per capita demand, it is evident that, the total

demand for pulses (feed, seed, industrial use and waste). Empirical study on the

dynamics of the supply and demand of the pulses is very crucial from the point of

view of food security and often services insight to policy planners regarding the

existing state of affairs and future directions of the food self-sufficiency. The study

had estimated compound growth rates of area, production and productivity of india

during 1990-91 to 2014-15 and also estimated the demand and supply of pulses and

had carried out the projection for pulse under for different scenarios of economic

growth rates (6,7,8 and 9 per cent) for years 2019-20 to 2025-26. The study

estimated that, the Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for total pulses with

respect to area, production & productivity in India during 1990-2015 was found to

be 0.09%, 0.77% & 0.96% respectively. The results had suggested that the demand

for pulses will be met with surplus under scenario of six and seven per cent of

economic growth. However, the pulses grain shortest in supply of demand in the

coming years under third and fourth scenarios (8 and 9 percent of economic growth

rates) of the study. There-fore, the policies that can help in maintaining the growth

in the long-run are needed that will be able to keep a balance between domestic

production and demand for pulses.

Key words: Pulses Demand, Supply, Food Security and Demand-Supply gaps.

Introduction

The growth of Indian agriculture over last few decades has helped the country

in achieving food security at National level. The next big challenge faced by the

country in general and Indian agriculture in particular is to sustain this growth and


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achieve nutritional security as well. Pulses for being environment friendly, major

source of protein and complementing cereals both in production and consumption

will have a vital role to play under the circumstances. In the production process,

pulses improve soil fertility, requires less water than cereals. On the consumption

side, pulses are relatively cheaper source of protein. (Joshi and Saxena 2002). Pulses

will form a major source of protein for a huge section of India particularly for the

poor, backward classes and most of the traditionally vegetarian population (Reddy,

2004). India is the largest producer and consumer of pulses in the world economy of

pulses farming. The major pulse crops grown in India are chickpea, pigenopea,

urdbean, mungbean, lathyrus, mothbean, horsegram, lentil and peas. The common

pulses grown in Rabi season are chickpea, lentil, field pea, lathyrus (Khesari) and

rajmash. The major pulses cultivated during Kharif season are arhar, moong and urd

(black gram). Pulses accounted for 14.33 percent of gross cropped area of the country

during 1952-53 and with fluctuations in between the years; it remained to around 12

per cent during 2007-08. The area under pulses cultivation decreased by 3.95 per cent

and production increased by 17.67 per cent during 1962-63 and 2007-08. This reflects

more or less stagnant conditions of pulses production. There is a demand and supply

gap in pulses, and depending on the domestic short fall in pulses production, India’s

net imports of pulses have ranged from 1 to 3 million tonnes during 2001-02 to 2008-

09. The per capita availability of pulses declined from 61 grams in 1951 to 36 grams

in 2007. To enhance adoption of improved technology in pulses farming, various

programmes of government like National Pulses Development Project (NPDP),

Technology Mission for Oilseeds and Pulses (TMOP), Integrated Scheme of

Oilseeds, Pulses, Oil palm and Maize (ISOPOM) are in operation from time to time.

Considering the importance of pulses in food security, the National Food Security

Mission (NFSM) was launched during the eleventh Five-year plan targeting

important food grain crops rice, wheat and pulses. In recent reports it has been found

that India has achieved a record pulses production of 18.45 million tonnes (MT) in

the 2012-13 as compared with 17.09 MT in 2011-12. In a nation, continuous growth

in demand over time aggravates food problems and hence it is essential to assess its

impact on future prospects of demand-supply balance. Analysis of food consumption

patterns and how they might respond to changes in income, population, prices, and

other factors is essential to formulate remedial policy measures. In order to tackle this

issue of food security, researchers have made use of different approaches to estimate

demand and supply of agricultural products. These estimations also enable nations to

assess their future demand and supply and accordingly formulate appropriate long-

term policies. This paper aims at forecasting demand and supply of pulses for the

period 2019-20 to 2025-26.

Materials and Methodology

The study primarily based on the secondary data collected from published

sources like Directorate of Economics and Statistics, various annual reports of All

India Coordinated Research Projects of concerned crops and Expert committee on

pulses. The following analytical techniques are used to estimate the demand and


219

supply of pulses in India. Growth rates of area, production and productivity of pulses

over the period from 1950-51 to 2014-15.

Analytical Techniques:

Compound growth rate (CAGR)

In order to examine the growth of area, production and productivity of pulses

in India compound growth rates has been calculated. Compound growth rate (C.G.R.)

was calculated by using the regression equation in the exponential form as:

Yt = ABt

Where,

Yt = Production pulses for the year t

A = Intercept indicating Y in the base period (t = 0)

B = (1 + r)

r = Compound growth rate per annum

t = Time period

The model was linearized by means of logarithmic transformation, which

was given as

ln Yt = ln A + t (ln B)

The slope coefficient of B measures the relative changes in Y for a given

absolute change in the value of explanatory variable in period t. Therefore, the

compound growth was estimated finally by using the following equation;

ln B = ln (1 + r)

r = [antilog (ln B) -1]

CGR = [antilog (ln B) -1] ×100 or [r×100]

Projections for supply of pulses:

The supply projections for pulses were estimated by analyzing trend equation

(the linear regression form). Projections for supply of pulses for year 2019-20, 2020-

21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25 and 2025-26 have been calculated in the

linear regression form, whose algebraic form is as follows:

y = a + bt

Where,

y = Production of pulses

a = Constant term

b = Regression coefficient of time

t = Indicates the time (years)

Projections for demand of pulses

The total domestic demand projections for pulses were arrived at by adding

up the direct demand (human demand) and the indirect demand (seed, feed industrial

use and waste). The expenditure elasticities used in the projection model were taken

primarily from past studies (Kumar et. al. 2009; Srivastava et. al, 2013).


220

The demand Projections for the pulses were obtained through;

Dt = d0 × Nt (1 + y × e) t

Where,

Dt = The aggregate demand of a commodity in year t

d0 = The per capita consumption of the commodity in the base year

Nt = The projected population in year t

y = Growth in per capita income

e = the expenditure elasticity of demand for the commodity.

The household food demand is primarily driven by growth in population,

income and change in income distribution (Kumar, 1997). The total domestic demand

projections for pulses were arrived at by adding up the direct demand (human

demand) and the indirect demand (seed, feed industrial use and waste).

Conventionally, the indirect demand was assumed to be 12.5 per cent of the total food

grains production- an assumption which has been used since 1950‘s for all official

estimates. Lately, (Kumar et al. 2007, 2009) have computed the shares of seed, feed,

waste and other uses as 9.5 per cent of total production of rice, 13.5 per cent of wheat,

41 per cent of coarse cereals, and 16.85 per cent of pulses. Theses parameters were

used in the present study, and the seed, feed, industrial use and waste allowances were

estimated. Although there are no authentic estimates available for “home away

demand”, based on some guess estimates (Kumar et. al, 2009) had assumed 5 per cent

of total direct demand as “home away demand”. Using the same parameters, the total

“home away demand” for pulses was estimated.

Income Growth:

Income growth is another important factor in demand projections. Growth

rate in per capita income was obtained by subtracting population growth rate from

income growth rate and was used in projections (Kumar et. al, 2009). GDP growth

rate in 2013 was 7.5 per cent and population growth rate was1.2 per cent, resulting in

a net growth of 6.3 per cent. Based on recent trends, it was assumed that the Indian

economy would grow at a much higher growth trajectory and population growth rate

would also decline. So, in the simulation present demand projections were made using

four scenarios with income growth rates in GDP, viz. 6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent.

Results and discussion:

Area, production and productivity of pulse in india

The status of area, production and productivity of pulses in india over the

years i.e. 1949-50 to 2014-2015 is presented in Annexure-I.

The area, production and productivity of pulses have been hovering in the

same range over the years but have shown some sign of progress during the last

decade the area under pulses has increased from 22.00 M.ha. in 2000-01 to 23.55

M.ha. registering an increase of 1.35 M.ha. the yield has also increased by about 16

per cent during the last decade. This has resulted mainly due to focused efforts of the

government through various initiatives like NFSM.


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From the below Table 1, Area, production and productivity of pulses

showed progressive growth during the entire study period i.e. 1949-50 to 2014-15,

but their preference was rather poor and insignificant as compared to other food

crops and we can observe that during the period of 2007-08 to 2014-15 the area of

pulses has registered a negative growth.

Table 1: Compound Growth Rate of Area, production and productivity.

Compound Growth Rate (CGR)

1949-50 to

2014-15

1949-1950 to

1965-66

1966-67 to

2006-07

2007-08 to

2014-15

Area(in 000 ha) 0.0024 0.0079 0.0003 -0.0005

Production(000 ton) 0.0116 0.0129 0.0119 0.0217

Productivity (in kg/ha) 0.0092 0.0052 0.0116 0.0220

Source: Author’s calculation

Figure 1: Total area pulses in india from 1949-50 to 2014-15.

We can observe from the Figure 1, the total pulse growing area is not much

changed but some extent of land is increased from 1949-50 to 2014-15.

Figure 2: Total production of pulses in india from 1949-50 to 2014-15.

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

19

49-5

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Total area of pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15

0.005.00

10.0015.0020.0025.00

Pro

du

ctio

n (

MT)

Years

Total production of pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15


222

We have depicted from the Figure 2, increase in total pulse production from

1949-50 to 2014-15. Because of the releasing of good varieties and management

practices.

Figure 3: Total productivity of pulses in india from 1949-50 to 2014-15.

We can see from the Figure 3; the total pulse productivity is also increasing

from 1949-50 to 2014-15. The productivity increase because of the suitable climatic

conditions for growing the pulse in india.

Major pulse producing states in India in 2014-15

In India major pulse producing state are presented in Table 2. From the table

2; we can conclude that, in the total pulse production and in area, Rajasthan stands

first position followed by Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. In productivity Andhra

Pradesh occupies first position followed by Jharkhand and Tamil nadu. In Andhra

Pradesh the climate is suitable for pulses and the farmer follows the good

management practices and releasing of good verities for better productivity.

Table 2: Area, Production and Productivity in major Pulse Producing States

during 2014-15. State Production Per cent share

in india

Area

(M.ha)

Per cent

share in india

Yield

(kg/ha)

Rajasthan 95.33 39.63 202.56 38.51 471

Madhya Pradesh 50.8 21.12 104.2 19.81 488

Maharashtra 20.5 8.52 66.9 12.72 306

Karnataka 16.6 6.90 49.2 9.35 337

Tamil nadu 13.1 5.45 19.4 3.69 675

Odisha 12.44 5.17 32.28 6.14 387

Jharkhand 12.06 5.01 14.9 2.83 805

Gujarat 10.7 4.45 16 3.04 669

Chhattisgarh 4.94 2.05 15.64 2.97 316

Andhra Pradesh 4.1 1.70 4.9 0.93 836

Total 240.57 100 525.98 100

Source : www.indiastat.com

0

100

200

300400

500

600700

800900

19

49-5

01

951

-52

19

53-5

41

955

-56

19

57-5

81

959

-60

19

61-6

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963

-64

19

65-6

61

967

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19

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-72

19

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Pro

du

ctiv

ity

( k

g/h

a)

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Total productivity pulses in India from 1949-50 to 2014-15

http://www.indiastat.com/


223

Table 3: Shares of Different Pulse Crops in total Pulse Production of India

during 2014-15. Crop Production (MT) Share %

Bengal gram 7.33 50.10

Lentil 1.04 7.07

Mung Bean 1.50 10.27

Pegion pea 2.81 19.18

Urd Bean 1.96 13.38 14.636 100

Source: www.indiastat.com

Figure 4: Share of major pulse in India

Per Capita Availability of Pulses in India

The net availability of pulses in India has been depicted in Table 4. Pulses

are an important component of diet for being rich vegetarian source of protein and

making diet nutritionally balanced. In spite of this, the net per capita availability of

pulses has come down over years from 60.7 grams per day per person in 1951 to 47.2

grams per day per person in 2014. Owning to continuous increase in population and

stagnant production of pulses, the availability of pulses has come down since

independence. This indicates that the growth in production and availability of pulses

in not in pace with the growth in population of the country. The availability of pulses

need to increase to make them available as per the recommendations of ICMR.

Table 4: Per capita net availability gram per day from 1951 to 2014.

Years

Per Capita Net

Availability Per Day

(in gram)

Years

Per Capita Net

Availability Per

Day (in gram)

1951 60.7 1956 70.3

1952 59.1 1957 71.8

1953 62.7 1958 58.5

1954 69.7 1959 74.9

1955 71.1 1960 65.5

Bengal gram, 50.10

lentil, 7.07

Mung Bean, 10.27

Pegion pea, 19.18

Urd Bean, 13.38

Per cent share



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Years

Per Capita Net

Availability Per Day

(in gram)

Years

Per Capita Net

Availability Per

Day (in gram)

1961 69.0 1990 41.1

1962 62.0 1991 41.6

1963 59.8 1992 34.3

1964 51.0 1993 36.2

1965 61.6 1994 37.2

1966 48.2 1995 37.8

1967 39.6 1996 32.7

1968 56.1 1997 37.1

1969 47.3 1998 32.8

1970 51.9 1999 36.5

1971 51.2 2000 31.8

1972 47.0 2001 30.0

1973 41.1 2002 35.4

1974 40.8 2003 29.1

1975 39.7 2004 35.8

1976 50.5 2005 31.5

1977 43.3 2006 32.5

1978 45.5 2007 35.5

1979 44.7 2008 41.8

1980 30.9 2009 37.0

1981 37.5 2010 35.4

1982 39.2 2011 43.0

1983 39.5 2012 41.7

1984 41.9 2013 43.3

1985 38.4 2014 47.2

1986 43.9

1987 36.4

1988 36.7

1989 41.9

Source:www.indiastat.com

Figure 5: Per capita net availability of pulses from 1951 to 2014.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

51

19

54

19

57

19

60

19

63

19

66

19

69

19

72

19

75

19

78

19

81

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

gm/d

ay

Years


225

Table 5: Growth of pulses vis-a-vis food grain from 1950-51 to 2014-15.

Area (M.ha.) 1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2010-11 2014-15

Food grains 97.321 115.641 124.316 126.667 127.835 121.048 126.671 124.299

Index 100 118.82 126.33 128.22 129.14 123.83 128.48 126.60

Pulses 19.091 23.563 22.534 22.457 24.662 20.348 26.407 23.552

Index 100 123.42 119.06 118.72 128.53 111.04 140.82 130.01

Production (MT)

Food grains 50.825 82.018 108.422 129.588 176.39 196.814 244.482 252.023

Index 100 161.37 193.57 213.09 249.20 260.78 285.00 288.09

Pulses 8.411 12.704 11.818 10.627 14.265 11.076 18.24 17.152

Index 100 151.04 144.07 133.99 168.22 145.87 210.55 204.58

Productivity (kg/ha)

Food grains 522 710 872 1023 1380 1626 1930 2028

Index 100 136.02 158.83 176.15 211.05 228.87 247.57 252.65

Pulses 441 539 524 473 578 544 691 728

Index 100 122.22 119.44 109.71 131.91 126.02 153.04 158.40

Source: www.indiastat.com and author’s calculations

From the table 5, we can conclude that, the total area, production and

productivity of food grains growth is more than the pulses.

Projection of pulses demand of India and different components of demand for

pulses

India’s predominance of food grains in the agricultural consumption and

production pattern had changed (Amarasinghe et. al., 2007). Sustained economic

growth, increasing population and changing lifestyles had caused significant changes

in Indian food basket, away from staple food grains towards high value horticultural

and animal products (Kumar et al., 2009 and Mittal, 2007). While per capita

consumption of food grains had declined, their total consumption has increased due

to increasing population. Also, changes in the dietary pattern towards animal products

have led to an increased demand of food grains as animal feed.

Nonetheless, food grains particularly rice and wheat, continue to be the main

pillars of India’s food security. The success of the Green Revolution in India brought

tremendous increase in food production. The past few decades had witnessed

significant amount of technological changes causing tremendous increase on the

production of various crops, particularly cereal crops. Thus, on the supply side,

stimulated by the public investment in irrigation and rural infrastructure and rapid

spread of high-yielding varieties of rice and wheat, together with improved crop

production practices, India had achieved an impressive growth in food grains (Kumar

et al., 2004 and Kumar and Mittal, 2006).

Demand for pulses:

The future demand for pulses in India will not only come from increases in

population but will also originate from the increase in demand for animal feed.

According to an estimate, the share of calorie supplies of food grains, non-grain crops



226

and animal products will change from 63 per cent, 29 per cent and 8 per cent in 2000

to 48 per cent, 36 per cent and 16 per cent in 2050, respectively in India (Amarasinghe

et. al., 2007).

In India, the demand for grains for animals feed increased by 9 per cent per

annum in 1990s against one per cent rise in demand for food (Rosegrant et. al., 1995).

As a result, the per capita monthly food grain demand in India is projected to increase

from 16.7 to 19.9 kg over the next 50 years (Amarasinghe et. al., 2007). India’s

current population is about 1.21 billion; it is expected to increase to 1.65 billion by

2050 i.e. an increase of 40 per cent. As per estimates, India would need to increase

its food grain production from current 251million tonnes to 276 million tonnes by

2021 and to more than 450 million tonnes by 2050 (Kang, 2011).

Figure 6: Shows component of total demand for pulses.

Expenditure elasticity

Food, being a necessary item, exhibits inelastic demand. However, within the

food basket, different items respond differently with change in income of households.

The expenditure elasticity of food items was higher for rural households than their

urban counterparts. The expenditure elasticity of cereals was positive but lowest

among the food commodities in all-India in both rural and urban India indicating that

increase in income of households will lead to only a marginal increase in cereal

consumption (Table 6). On the other hand, the expenditure elasticities for high value

food commodities such as milk and milk products (MMP), non-vegetarian products

(Egg/fish/meat) and fruits was comparatively higher than others. Thus, high value

food items are relatively income elastic and with increase in income (expenditure),

demand for these commodities will be higher than staple foods. This indicates the

fact that food demand will be comparatively higher in rural areas with per unit rise in

income.

Total demand for pulsess

Direct demand

House hold demand for

pulse

Indirct Demand

Seed, feed, wastage and

Industrial usage

Home away demand for food grains


227

Table 6: Expenditure elasticity of food commodities (2004-05).

Food group All-India Rural Urban

Cereals b 0.24 0.15 0.15

Rice a 0.04 0.064 0.016

Wheat a -0.068 -0.056 -0.08

Coarse cereals a -0.158 -0.151 -0.165

Pulses b 0.51 0.56 0.46

Edible oils b 0.53 0.54 0.52

Milk liquid b 0.91 1.00 0.82

Sugar b 0.835 0.83 0.84

Vegetables b 0.44 0.43 0.045

Fruits b 1.21 1.31 1.09

Source: a Kumar et al., 2009; b Srivastava et al., 2013.

Population growth

According to Registrar -General of Census, Government of India (2011), the

total population of the country is likely to increase from 1201.9 million in 2011 to

1326 million in 2020 and further to1399.84 million in 2026 (Table 7).

Table 7: Projected population from 2020–26.

Year 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Total

population

(Million)

1326.16 1339.74 1352.7 1365.3 1377.44 1388.99 1399.84

Source: India, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, 2006.

Table 8: Projected population growth rate as of March 1, 2001–2026

Population growth during 2001–05 2006–10 2011–15 2016–20 2021–25

Growth rate (% per year) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 Source: India, Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, 2006.

Note: Although population projections are given as on March 1st, we have assumed them as

mid-year projections.

Income growth

Income growth is another important factor in demand projections. Growth

rate in per capita income was obtained by subtracting population growth rate from

growth rate of GDP and were used in projections (Kumar et al., 2009). GDP growth

rate in 2013 was 7.5 per cent and population growth rate of 1.2 per cent, owing to

growth of 6.3 per cent.

Demand projection of pulses

Based on recent trends, it was assumed that the Indian economy would

grow at a much higher growth trajectory and population growth rate would also


228

decline. So, in the simulation present demand projections were made using four

scenarios with income growth rates in GDP, viz. 6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent.

Table 9: Projected demand for pulses in india in different scenarios of

economic growth (6%,7%,8% and 9% and base year is 2009-10) 2009-

10

2019-

20

2020-

21

2021-

22

2022-

23

2023-

24

2024-

25

2025-

26

Scenario I (6% economic growth)

Direct House hold

demand 9.96 16.91 17.07 17.23 17.38 17.53 17.67 17.75

Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79

Home away demand of

pules 0.50 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89

Total indirect demand 2.97 4.40 4.44 4.49 4.54 4.59 4.63 4.68

Total domestic demand 12.93 21.31 21.51 21.72 21.92 22.12 22.30 22.43

Scenario II (7% economic growth)

Direct House hold

demand 9.96 17.57 17.75 17.93 18.09 18.25 18.41 18.55

Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79

Home away demand of

pules 0.50 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93



Scenario III (8% economic growth)

Direct House hold

demand 9.96 17.74 17.91 18.07 18.25 18.41 18.55 18.67

Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79

Home away demand of

pules 0.50 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93



Scenario IV (9% economic growth)

Direct House hold

demand 9.96 18.57 18.75 18.93 19.09 19.25 19.41 19.55

Indirect demand 2.47 3.55 3.59 3.63 3.67 3.71 3.75 3.79

Home away demand of

pules 0.50 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98



Source: Author’s calculation Note: Assumption: Seed, feed, wastage and industrial uses were taken as 16.85 per cent of pulses

production (Kumar et al, 2007). Home away demand was assumed to be 5 per cent share in total

household demand pulses (Kumar et al., 2009).

Direct demand

The household food demand is primarily driven by growth in population,

income and change in income distribution (Kumar, 1997). The total domestic demand


229

projections for pulses were arrived at by adding up the direct demand (human

demand) and the indirect demand (seed, feed, industrial use and waste).

There has been significant decline in the consumption of pulses (as direct

demand) in the past. During 1993-94 to 2011-12, monthly per capita consumption of

pulses declined considerably from 0.76 kg to 0.63 kg in rural India and from 0.86 kg

to 0.72 kg in urban India.

The direct household demand for pulses was projected to be increased to as

16.91 MT in 2019-20, 17.07 MT in 2020- 21, 17.23 MT in 2021 -22, 17.38 MT in

2022-23, 17.53 MT in 2023-24, 17.67 MT in 2024-25 and 17.75 MT in 2025-26, if

economy grows at 6 per cent (Table 9). In the second scenario of study if economy

grows at 7 per cent, projections for the same were as 17.57 MT in 2019-20, 17.75 MT

in 2020-21, 17.95 MT in 2021- 22, 18.09 MT in 2022-23, 18.25 MT in 2023-24, 18.41

MT in 2024-25 and 18.55 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).

Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth, projections

made for direct household demand were as 17.74 MT in 2019-20, 17.91 MT in

2020-21, 18.07 MT in 2021-22, 18.25 MT in 2022- 23, 18.41 MT in 2023-24, 18.55

MT in 2024-25 and 18.67 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).Likewise, in the fourth scenario

of 9 per cent economic growth, projections made were as 18.57 MT in 2019-20,

18.75 MT in 2020-21, 18.93 MT in 2021-22, 19.09 MT in 2022-23, 19.25 MT in

2023-24, 19.41 MT in 2024-25 and 19.55 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9 )

Indirect demand

Conventionally, the indirect demand was assumed to be 12.5 per cent of the

total food grains production- an assumption been used since 1950‘s for all official

estimates. Lately, Kumar et al. (2007, 2009) have computed the shares of seed, feed,

waste and other uses as 16.85 per cent of pulses. This parameter was used in the

present study, and the seed, feed, industrial use and waste allowances had been

projected as 3.55 MT in 2019, 3.59 MT in 2020-21, 3.63 MT in 2021-22, 3.67mt in

2022-23, 3.71 MT in 2023-24, 3.75 MT in 2024-25 and 3.79 MT in 2025-26, in all

the scenarios of economic growth i.e. 6,7,8 and 9 per cent. This demand constitutes

about 16.7 per cent of total domestic demand of pulses and about 16.8 per cent of

pulse production in the country.

With the stupendous rise in income (increase in employment opportunities

specifically for women and per capita income), urbanization (fast growing urban

population) and sedentary lifestyles are causing significant rise in home away demand

‘for food grains. Although, there are of authentic estimates available for ‘home away

demand ‘, based on some guesstimates, (Kumar et. al., 2009) had assumes 5 per cent

of total direct demand as home away demand ‘. Using the same parameters, the total

home away demand ‘for pulses was projected as 0.76 MT in 2019-20, 0.77 MT in

2020-21, 0.77 MT in 2021-22, 0.78 MT in 2022-23, 0.79 MT in 2023-24, 0.79 MT in

2024-25 and 0.80 MT in 2025-26 if economy grows at 6 per cent (Table 9).


230

In the second scenario of study, if economy grows at 7 per cent projections

for the same were as 0.80 MT in 2019-20, 0.80 MT in 2020-21, 0.81 MT in 2021-22,

0.82 MT in 2022-23, 0.83 MT in 2023-24, 0.83 MT in 2024-25 and 0.84 MT in 2025-

26 (Table 9). Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth projections

made were as 0.84 MT in 2019-20, 0.85 MT in 2020-21, 0.85 MT in 2021-22, 0.86

MT in 2022-23, 0.87 MT in 2023-24, 0.88 MT in 2024-25 and 0.88mt in 2025-26

(Table 9). Likewise, in the fourth scenario of 9 per cent economic growth, projections

made were as 0.88 MT in 2019-20, 0.89 MT in 2020-21, 0.90 MT in 2021-22, 0.90

MT in 2022-23, 0.91 MT in 2023-24, 0.92 MT in 2024-25 and 0.93 MT in 2025-26

(Table 9)

Total domestic demand for pulses:

The total domestic pulses demand projections which were estimated as sum

of total direct and total indirect demand of pulses. The projections for the total

domestic pulses demand for the first scenario, if economy grows at 6 per cent were

as 19.48 MT in 2019-20, 19.68 MT in 202021, 19.88 MT in 2021-22, 20.07 MT in

2022-23, 20.25 MT in 2023-24, 20.43 MT in 2024-25 and 20.60 MT in 2025-26

(Table 9).

In the second scenario, if economy grows at 7 per cent, projections for the

same were as 20.28 MT in 2019-20, 20.49 MT in 2020-21, 20.79 MT in 2021-22,

20.90 MT in 2022-23, 21.09 MT in 2023-24, 21.28 MT in 2024-25 and 21.45 MT in

2025-26 (Table 9).Similarly, in third scenario of 8 per cent of economic growth,

projections made were as 21.12 MT in 2019-20, 21.34 MT in 2020-21, 21.56 MT in

2021-22, 21.76 MT in 2022-23, 21.97 MT in 2023-24, 22.16 MT in 2024-25 and

22.34 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).Likewise in the fourth scenario of 9 per cent economic

growth, projections made were as 22.00 MT in 2019-20, 22.23 MT in 2020-21, 22.45

MT in 2021-22, 22.67 MT in 2022-23, 22.88 MT in 2023-24, 23.08 MT in 2024-25

and 23.27 MT in 2025-26 (Table 9).

Table 10: Total Demand of pulses in India in 2025-26 (Million tonnes).

Scenario I

(6% economic

growth)

Scenario II

(7% economic

growth)

Scenario III

(8% economic

growth)

Scenario IV

(9% economic

growth)

22.35 23.19 23.35 24.27 Source: Authors calculations

Supply of pulses:

Pulses indicate a sluggish growth or even decline in output. The government

policy in terms of production, market support and distribution had also impacted

substantially on supply of and demand for various pulses. Similarly, the assured

procurement, support price and public distribution has also impacted substantially on

supply of and demand for various cereals. The supply projections for pulses were

estimated by analyzing trend equation (the linear regression form).


231

India has achieved an impressive growth in pulse production. Production of

pulses has increased to stupendous 17.2 million tonnes (Annexure-I) in 2014-15. The

growth rate of pulses (production) in India from1950-1951 to 2014-2015 was 1.15

per cent. Per capita annual production of pulses decreased from 18.91 kg during early-

1970s to 14.37 kg by mid-1990s, even though country’s population increased more

than 50 per cent during this period (Economic Survey, 2007). After mid1990s, per

capita pulse production started declining due to deceleration in the total factor

productivity growth, with growth rate of -0.70 per cent during 1994-95 to 2003-04

(Table ?).

So, pulse production in India observed varying growth rates with time. As it

is a matter of concern for Indian food-security. This changing scenario of

consumption and production will have a significant influence on the demand and

supply prospects of food (Kumar et al., 2009). The production (supply) projections

for pulses in India were as 21.08mt in 2019-20, 21.32 MT in 2020-21, 21.56 MT in

2021-22, 21.80 MT in 2022-23 and 22.04 MT in 2023-24, 22.28 MT in 2024-25

and22.52mt in 2025-26 (Table 11)

Table 11: Projections for Supply (Production) of pulses in India (2019-20 to

2025-26) (Million tonnes).

Year 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.8 22.04 22.28 22.52 Source: Author’s calculations

Table 12: Availability of pulses in India Year Production

MT

Exports

MT

Imports

MT

Total supply

MT

Imports as %

of total supply

1980-81 10.63 0.001 0.17 10.80 1.60

1981-82 11.51 0.001 0.13 11.64 1.10

1982-83 11.86 0.002 0.10 11.96 0.86

1983-84 12.89 0.006 0.23 13.12 1.74

1984-85 11.96 0.004 0.24 12.20 1.93

1985-86 13.36 0.001 0.43 13.79 3.13

1986-87 11.71 0.005 0.62 12.33 5.07

1987-88 11.04 0.009 0.61 11.65 5.26

1988-89 13.85 0.010 0.76 14.60 5.17

1989-90 12.86 0.013 0.47 13.33 3.53

1990-91 14.27 0.015 1.27 15.54 8.20

1991-92 12.01 0.026 0.31 12.33 2.54

1992-93 12.81 0.034 0.38 13.20 2.90

1993-94 13.30 0.044 0.63 13.93 4.51

1994-95 14.04 0.051 0.55 14.59 3.80

1995-96 12.31 0.061 0.49 12.80 3.80

1996-97 14.24 0.055 0.65 14.90 4.39

1997-98 12.98 0.171 1.01 13.99 7.21


232

Year Production

MT

Exports

MT

Imports

MT

Total supply

MT

Imports as %

of total supply

1998-99 12.16 0.104 0.56 12.73 4.43

1999-00 13.42 0.192 0.25 13.67 1.85

2000-01 11.08 0.244 0.35 11.43 3.07

2001-02 13.37 0.162 2.23 15.60 14.31

2002-03 11.13 0.151 2.00 13.12 15.21

2003-04 14.91 0.154 1.72 16.63 10.36

2004-05 13.13 0.271 1.34 14.47 9.26

2005-06 13.38 0.447 1.70 15.08 11.25

2006-07 13.38 0.251 2.27 15.65 14.51

2007-08 14.76 0.164 2.84 17.60 16.11

2008-09 14.57 0.136 2.48 17.05 14.55

2009-10 14.66 0.100 3.51 18.17 19.31

2010-11 18.24 0.208 2.70 20.94 12.89

2011-12 17.09 0.174 3.36 20.45 16.45

2012-13 18.34 0.202 1.54 19.89 7.76

2013-14 19.25 0.344 3.18 22.43 14.16

1999-00 13.42 0.192 0.25 13.67 1.85

2013-14 19.25 0.344 3.18 22.43 14.16

Change 5.83 0.151 2.92 8.91 12.31

% Change 65.48 1.698 32.82 100.00 Source: www.indiastat.com

Figure 7: availability of pulses in India

The total supply of pulses in India have increased from 13.67 MT to 22.43

MT during the last 15 i.e. between 1999-2000 and 2013-14 (Table 12). Though, the

production during the same period has increased by 5.83 MT i.e. from 13.42 MT in

1999-2000 to 19.25 MT in 2013-14. Hence, the imports also have played a vital role

in the total supply of pulses in the country. It is assumed that the production, imports

and exports of the pulses contribute to its total supply. The import has increased from

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

19

80

-81

19

81

-82

19

82

-83

19

83

-84

19

84

-85

19

85

-86

19

86

-87

19

87

-88

19

88

-89

19

89

-90

19

90

-91

19

91

-92

19

92

-93

19

93

-94

19

94

-95

19

95

-96

19

96

-97

19

97

-98

19

98

-99

19

99

-00

20

00

-01

2

00

1-0

2

20

02

-03

2

00

3-0

4

20

04

-05

2

00

5-0

6

20

06

-07

2

00

7-0

8

20

08

-09

2

00

9-1

0

20

10

-11

2

01

1-1

2

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

Val

ue

s in

MT

Years

Production MT Exports MT Imports MT Total supply MT


233

0.25 MT in 1999-2000 to 3.18 MT in 2013-14 and are responsible for increase in total

supply of pulses which increased from 1.85 per cent to 14.16 per cent of total supply

during the same period. The import of pulses during 1990s was less than 1 MT except

for the year 1990-91 and 1997-98 where it was marginally higher at 1.27 and 1.01

MT. But, during the last 15 years the imports have consistently been in the range of

2 MT or above and have touched the highest mark of 3.51 MT in 2009-10. The table

also reveals that out of the increase of 8.91 MT in the total supply of pulses during

the last 15 years, 2.92 MT has been the contribution of imports. This reveals that

mainly imports are responsible for increase in supply which constitutes more than 32

per cent of increase in total supply. On the contrary, increase in domestic production

contributes is 65 per cent for the total increase in supply of pulses.

Demand-Supply gaps

There are many studies on supply-demand mismatch of food commodities

with strikingly diverse conclusions for food security outlook in India (Kumar et al.,

1995; Bhalla et al., 1999; Chand, 2007; Mittal, 2006 and Amarasinghe et al., 2007).

Empirical study on the dynamics of supply and demand of food grains is indeed

valuable for the country like India from the point of view of food security, and often

serves insights to policy planners regarding the existing state of affairs and future

directions of food self-sufficiency. The study had estimated the demand and supply

of pulses and carried out the projections under four different scenarios of economic

growth rates (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent). The results had suggested that the pulses grains

would be short in supply of demand in the coming years under third and fourth

scenarios (8 and 9 per cent economic growth rates) of the study. Therefore, the

policies that can help in maintaining the growth in the long-run are needed that will

be able to keep a balance between domestic production and demand for pulses. A

comparison of supply-demand gap of pulses under different economic growth

scenarios (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent) in India from 2019-20 to 2025-26 (Table 12) revealed

that the surplus in supply and demand of pulses declines as economy advances at

much higher growth rates. In all scenarios observed the demand is more than supply

of pulses. Therefore, the policies that can help in maintaining the growth in the long-

run are needed that will be able to keep a balance between domestic production and

demand for pulses. A comparison of supply-demand gap of pulses under different

economic growth scenarios (6, 7, 8 and 9 per cent) in India from 2019-20 to 2025-26

revealed that the demand and supply and of pulses declines as economy advances at

much higher growth rates. In short the need of an hour is to switch from stressed

agriculture to specialized agriculture. Prerequisite for which is knowledge based

agriculture, innovations and policies which could providing local solutions by global

experiences. Coming out of the technological fatigue can work miracles for Indian

agriculture in this changing scenario. If not, it could create serious imbalances

between domestic production and demand. But if growth rate in domestic production

of pulses fails to rise to the required level, it would eventually lead to increased

dependence on import of pulses for meeting domestic demand (Chand, 2009).


234

Table 13: Demand and supply of pulses from 2007-08 to 2014-15

Year Demand Supply Gap

2007-08 16.77 14.76 2.01

2008-09 17.51 14.57 2.94

2009-10 18.29 14.66 3.63

2010-11 19.08 18.24 0.84

2011-12 19.91 17.69 2.22

2012-13 20.90 18.34 2.56

2013-14 21.71 19.00 2.71

2014-15 22.35 17.2 5.15

Figure 8: Demand and supply of pulses in India.

Table 14: Projected Supply-demand for pulses in india in different scenarios of

economic growth (6%,7%,8% and 9% and base year is 2009-10) Scenario I (6% economic growth)

2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26

Demand 21.22 21.43 21.64 21.83 22.03 22.22 22.35

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.8 22.04 22.28 22.52


Demand 21.92 22.15 22.38 22.58 22.79 23.00 23.19

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.8 22.04 22.28 22.52


Demand 22.13 22.35 22.56 22.78 22.99 23.18 23.35

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.80 22.04 22.28 22.52


Demand 23.00 23.23 23.46 23.67 23.88 24.08 24.27

Supply 21.08 21.32 21.56 21.80 22.04 22.28 22.52 Source: Author’s calculation

0

5

10

15

20

25

Val

ue

in M

T

Years

Demand and supply of pulses in india

Demand

Supply


235

Figure 9: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 6% economic growth.

Figure 10: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 7% economic growth

Figure 11: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 8% of economic growth.

20.00

20.50

21.00

21.50

22.00

22.50

23.00

Val

ue

in M

T

Years


Demand

Supply

19.50

20.00

20.50

21.00

21.50

22.00

22.50

23.00

23.50

Val

ue

in M

T

Years


Demand

Supply

19.50

20.00

20.50

21.00

21.50

22.00

22.50

23.00

23.50

24.00

Val

ue

in M

T

Years


Demand

Supply


236

Figure 12: Demand and supply of pulses in India at 9% of economic growth

Table 12 Demand supply gap from 2019-20 to 20125-26 with respect to the

economic growth of 6%, 7%, 8% and 9%. Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario IV

(6% economic

growth)

(7% economic

growth)

(8% economic

growth)

(9% economic

growth)

2019-20 0.23 0.92 1.10 1.97

2020-21 0.19 0.91 1.08 1.96

2021-22 0.16 0.90 1.04 1.95

2022-23 0.12 0.86 1.03 1.91

2023-24 0.08 0.83 1.00 1.88

2024-25 0.02 0.80 0.95 1.85

2025-26 -0.09 0.75 0.87 1.80

Source :Author’s calculations

Figure 13: Demand supply gap from 2019-20 to 2025-26.

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Val

ue

in M

T

Years


Demand

Supply

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2 0 1 9 - 2 0 2 0 2 0 - 2 1 2 0 2 1 - 2 2 2 0 2 2 - 2 3 2 0 2 3 - 2 4 2 0 2 4 - 2 5 2 0 2 5 - 2 6

Val

ue

in M

T

Years

Demand-supply gap




237

Concern for food security

The demand for pulses was found to be increasing due to population growth,

changing tastes and consumption patterns. For meeting food security in long run, we

need to understand the definition of food security. Food security issues depend on

several factors such as growth trends in population, per capita income, urbanization,

changes in taste in the era of globalization and future growth of the bottom-most

section of the population. Food security is defined as economic access to food along

with food production and food availability. Food security is a situation in which both

food supply and effective demand are sufficient to cover nutritional requirements.

Indicators of food security are household food availability, household food

consumption and nutritional status. But the question of food security has a number of

dimensions that go beyond the production, availability and demand for food. It is the

ability of all people to access food at the same time for healthy life. At the household

level, food security refers to the ability of a household to secure adequate food to meet

the dietary needs of all the members of the household. Looking into the supply and

demand balance for pulses, it appeared that demand will be met in future with a

surplus of pulses. But when we talk about the issues of household food security then

per capita net availability is a better measure. Empirical facts from the literature

predicted that per capita production will decline during the next two decades. But the

per capita availability, which is net of stocks and trade, will take care of the increasing

per capita demand of pulses in the country. However, if the per capita production

shows a decline it remains an issue of concern. To improve food security at the

national level we need to either increase agricultural production or increase imports.

Since agricultural growth is limited, imports can act as a commercial means to

improve the country’s food security. Primarily, for domestic agricultural growth we

need to lay emphasis on productivity improvement, public investment in irrigation,

infrastructure development, and efficient use of water and plant nutrition. We also

need to put in resources for research and development (Kumar 1998; Fan et al., 1999;

Evenson et al., 1999 and Mittal, 2006).

Conclusions:

1. In India the total pulse growing area is stagnating from over the years and the

pulses production and productivity also not having significant growth from

the 1949-50 to 2014-15.

2. The pulses demand is increases due to changes in income and expenditure on

commodities.

3. Demand-supply gap is increasing with respect to the increase in economic

growth rates of the country. Because of the increasing the population from

year to year but the production is constant. the growth in production not much

increasing from the 1949-50 to 2014-15.

4. Importing of the pulses is increasing year by year to meet our food

requirements.


238

Suggestions and policy implications:

1. To improve food security at the national level, we need to either increase

agricultural production or increase imports of food. Since agricultural growth

is limited, imports can act as a commercial means to improve the country’s

food security. Primarily, for domestic agricultural growth we need to lay

emphasis on productivity improvement, public investment in irrigation,

infrastructure development, and efficient use of water and plant nutrition.

2. There is also need to put in resources for research and development for

increasing agricultural production.

3. Efforts should be made to regulate price through effective price control

mechanisms like MSP and MRP for high value commodities.

4. Long-term food security demands that research in production technology of

non-cereal food, through technology access to the poor small producers,

should be promoted.

5. While increasing population would necessitate increased production of

cereals, despite per capita decline in consumption, there will be significant

increase in demand for vegetables, fruits as well as fodder for animals. It will

necessitate crop diversification.

6. The extend of diversification due to structural changes in consumption will

be compounded by increased demand for export market especially for fruits,

vegetables and marine products as a result of new economic policies and

globalization. Diversification can raise incomes of producers.

7. The diversified food basket will provide the food security and improve

quality of life by adding to nutritional status

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Demand to 2020: Food, Agriculture and the Environment. Discussion Paper

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[20] www.indiastat.com

ANNEXURE-I

Area, production and productivity of pulses in India (1949-50 to 2014-15) Year Area (M.ha) Production (MT) Productivity (kg/ha)

1949-50 20.20 8.20 405

1950-51 19.09 8.41 441

1951-52 18.78 8.42 448

1952-53 19.85 9.19 463

1953-54 21.73 10.62 489

1954-55 21.91 10.95 500

1955-56 23.22 11.05 476

1956-57 23.32 11.55 495

1957-58 22.54 9.56 424

1958-59 24.31 13.15 541

1959-60 24.83 11.80 475

1960-61 23.56 12.70 539

1961-62 24.24 11.76 485

1962-63 24.27 11.53 475

1963-64 24.19 10.07 416

1964-65 23.88 12.42 520

1965-66 22.72 9.94 438

1966-67 22.12 8.35 377

1967-68 22.65 12.10 534

1968-69 21.26 10.42 490

1969-70 22.02 11.69 531

1970-71 22.53 11.82 524

1971-72 22.15 11.09 501

1972-73 20.92 9.91 474

1973-74 23.43 10.01 427

1974-75 22.02 10.01 455

1975-76 24.45 13.04 494

1976-77 22.98 11.36 494

1977-78 23.50 11.97 510

1978-79 23.66 12.18 515

1979-80 22.26 8.57 385

1980-81 22.46 10.63 473

1981-82 23.84 11.51 483

1982-83 22.83 11.86 519

1983-84 23.54 12.89 548

1984-85 22.74 11.96 526

1985-86 24.42 13.36 547

1986-87 23.16 11.71 506



241

Year Area (M.ha) Production (MT) Productivity (kg/ha)

1987-88 21.56 11.04 512

1988-89 23.15 13.85 598

1989-90 23.42 12.86 549

1990-91 24.66 14.27 578

1991-92 22.54 12.01 533

1992-93 22.36 12.81 573

1993-94 22.25 13.30 598

1994-95 23.03 14.04 610

1995-96 22.28 12.31 552

1996-97 22.45 14.24 635

1997-98 22.87 12.98 567

1998-99 23.50 12.16 634

1999-00 21.12 13.42 635

2000-01 20.35 11.08 544

2001-02 22.01 13.37 607

2002-03 20.50 11.13 543

2003-04 23.46 14.91 635

2004-05 22.76 13.13 577

2005-06 22.39 13.38 597

2006-07 22.39 13.38 597

2007-08 23.63 14.76 625

2008-09 22.09 14.57 659

2009-10 23.28 14.66 630

2010-11 26.41 18.24 691

2011-12 24.46 17.09 691

2012-13 23.26 18.34 789

2013-14 25.21 19.25 764

2014-15 23.55 17.15 728 Source: www.indiastat.com


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