The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 1

Industry skills leadership

The demand for skills

presentation to

ITF conference 2013

Dr Ganesh NanaChief Economist

Business and Economic Research Ltd

12 June 2013

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 3

NZ population 2003 cf 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+

000s

2003 2013

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 4

Change in populationover past ten years (2003 to 2013)

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+

000s

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 5

Change in populationover next ten years (2013 to 2023)

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+

000s

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 6

Change in populationand over ten years hence (2023 to 2033)

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90+

000s

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 7

Summary population changesover ten year intervals

000sTotal popn

WAP (15+) 15-25 25-50 50-70 70+

2003-13 451 448 70 36 253 89

2013-23 441 411 -21 110 134 188

2023-33 382 364 22 140 -43 245

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 8

Change in labour forceover next ten years (2013 to 2023)

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

000s

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 9

Labour force changes2013 to 2023 (000s)

Total 15-25 25-50 50-70 70+

301 -4 95 148 62

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 10

Across the industries –issues, prospects and potential

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 11

0

3

6

9

12

15

Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13

$bn

Dairy export receipts12-month totals

3

4

5

6

Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13

$bn

Meat export receipts12-month totals

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13

$bn

Wine export receipts12-month totals

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 12

Agriculture

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• age of existing workforce• image

* remote / location• business expertise

* succession

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 13

0

1

2

3

Mar 04 Mar 07 Mar 10 Mar 13

$bn

Forestry export receiptsannualised totals

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 14

Forestry

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• age of existing workforce• turnover of existing workforce• safety• remoteness

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 15

Mining and oil & gas

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• mitigation environment effects• safety• remoteness

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 16

Manufacturing

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• wages and competitiveness• business expertise• primary processing• new markets

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 17

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13

milion m2

Non-residential building consents12-month total area

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 18

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Mar 03 Mar 05 Mar 07 Mar 09 Mar 11 Mar 13

000s000s

Statistics NZ

Residential bldg consents3-month totals

Rest of NZ (LHS) Canterbury (RHS)

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 19

Building and construction

prospects/potential

the future of NZ economy for next decade is in your hands

issues/skill requirements• competition for workforce from abroad• safety• building regulations

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 20

Foreign visitor nights dive

11

12

13

14

Sep 08 Mar 10 Sep 11 Mar 13

million

Statistics NZ

NZ international guest nights12-month totals

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 21

Yes, visitor numbers are climbing

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13

millions

Statistics NZ

International visitorsannual totals

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 22

But, market is changing

20

30

40

50

Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13

%

Statistics NZ

International visitorsmarket share from Australia

20

24

28

32

36

Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13

%

Statistics NZ

International visitorsmarket share of VFR

0

3

6

9

12

Mar 01 Mar 05 Mar 09 Mar 13

%

Statistics NZ

International visitorsmarket share from China

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 23

Resulting in falling yields

4

5

6

7

8

Dec 03 Dec 06 Dec 09 Dec 12

$bn

Tourism export revenuesannualised totals

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 24

Tourism

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• customer service focus• the market (is changing fast)• business expertise

* SMEs cf larger corporates

• wages

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 25

Other servicesdomestic economy

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• wages / staff turnover• seen as short-term option, not career• competition for workforce

* from other industries* from abroad

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 26

Population serviceseg. education and health

prospects/potential

issues/skill requirements• wages• age of existing staff• competition for workforce from abroad

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 27

More generally

• proactive sector leadership* even in absence of growth, training required

to replace existing workforce* response to ageing, mentoring, succession* response to standards and related aspects

• use/attraction of recent migrants* skill requirements* familiarise with NZ context

• ethnicity dimension

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 28

Summary population changes2013 to 2023

000sTotal popn

WAP (15+) 15-25 25-50 50-70 70+

Māori 90 69 4 21 29 15

Total 441 411 -21 110 134 188

Statistics NZ cyclic migration and Series 6 scenarios

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 29

Economic dependency ratioratio of total popn to labour force

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2013 2023 2033 2043 2053

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario

The demand for skills – ITF conf – 120613slide 30

NZ 2023 population

161

155

156

156

165

179

187

161

139

127

142

142

145

126

107

83

53

27

14

153

148

148

149

150

165

179

163

149

140

158

155

157

135

115

94

64

37

25

200 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 200

0-4 years

5-9 years

10-14 years

15-19 years

20-24 years

25-29 years

30-34 years

35-39 years

40-44 years

45-49 years

50-54 years

55-59 years

60-64 years

65-69 years

70-74 years

75-79 years

80-84 years

85-89 years

90 years plus

000s

male female

Statistics NZ cyclic migration scenario