the demographic promise of expanded female education? · schools from existing decs –tripled...
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The Demographic Promise of
Expanded Female Education? Trends in Age at First Birth in Malawi
Monica J. Grant
University of Wisconsin-MadisonDepartment of Sociology
Center for Demography and Ecology
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Education and Age at First Birth
• Education gradient in age at first birth (AFB)
– Most consistent association with secondary
school (Jejeebhoy 1995; Bledsoe et al. 1999;
Gupta and Mahy 2003)
• How education affects AFB
– Ideational changes
– Labor market prospects
– Autonomy development
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Education Policy Change and AFB
• How association between education and
AFB changes over time (Gupta and Mahy 2003;
Lloyd 2005)
• Changing age of compulsory education
– Turkey (Kirder et al 2009); Ecuador (De Paoli 2009); Great Britain (Braakman 2011); Kenya (Ferre 2009)
• Variation in age at graduation
– Sweden (Skirbekk, Kohler, & Prskawetz 2004)
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The Promise of Expanded Female
Education
• Jomtien 1990: “Education for All”
• Female education embraced as a population
policy at ICPD 1994
• Female education for economic development
– Girls Count
– “The Girl Effect”
– WDR 2012: Gender Equity and Development
– WDR 2007: Development and the Next Generation
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Education not always empowering
• Gender biased classrooms
• Sexual harassment and abuse at
school
• Limited labor market outcomes for
educated women
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• 1994: Free primary education policy
– 1993/4 enrollment: 1.9 million
– 1994/5 enrollment: 2.9 million
• 1998: Secondary school expansion
– Created Community Day Secondary
schools from existing DECs
– Tripled number of secondary school
students
Education Change in Malawi
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• Did the education gradient in age at
first birth persist after Malawi’s
education policy changes?
• What factors have contributed to a
changing pattern of association?
Research Questions
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Data
• Malawi DHS• 1992, 2000, 2004, 2010
• Age at first birth (months)
• Highest grade attended
None, Lower Primary,
Upper Primary,
Secondary
• Malawi Ministry of
Education, Science, and
Technology (MOEST)
data
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Survey
year
Age when
free primary
introduced
Age when
CDSS
created
Exposure to
education
policies
1992 22-26 26-30 None
2000 14-18 18-22 Partial late
2004 10-14 14-18 Partial early
2010 4-8 8-12 Full
Women 20-24 Years Old at Time of Survey
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Survey year Median years
of schooling
completed
Median age
of first birth
N
1992 2.9 18.9 953
2000 3.9 19.3 2957
2004 5.2 19.0 2870
2010 5.8 18.9 4555
Women 20-24 Years Old at Time of Survey
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(1) (2) (3)
Coef S.E. Coef S.E. Coef S.E.
Survey year (ref. 1992)
2000 -0.01 0.01
2004 -0.01 0.01
2010 -0.02 0.01 *
Lower primary
Upper primary
Secondary or higher
Interaction terms
2000 * Lower primary
2000 * Upper primary
2000 * Secondary or higher
2004 * Lower primary
2004 * Upper primary
2004 * Secondary or higher
2010 * Lower primary
2010 * Upper primary
2010 * Secondary or higher
Accelerated Failure Time Regression: Age at First Birth
Note: All models control for urban/rural and region * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
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(1) (2) (3)
Coef S.E. Coef S.E. Coef S.E.
Survey year (ref. 1992)
2000 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.01 **
2004 -0.01 0.01 -0.04 0.01 ***
2010 -0.02 0.02 * -0.05 0.01 ***
Lower primary 0.00 0.01
Upper primary 0.01 0.01
Secondary or higher 0.15 0.01 ***
Interaction terms
2000 * Lower primary
2000 * Upper primary
2000 * Secondary or higher
2004 * Lower primary
2004 * Upper primary
2004 * Secondary or higher
2010 * Lower primary
2010 * Upper primary
2010 * Secondary or higher
Accelerated Failure Time Regression: Age at First Birth
Note: All models control for urban/rural and region * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
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(1) (2) (3)
Coef S.E. Coef S.E. Coef S.E.
Survey year (ref. 1992)
2000 -0.01 0.01 -0.02 0.01 ** -0.01 0.01
2004 -0.01 0.01 -0.04 0.01 *** -0.03 0.02
2010 -0.02 0.02 * -0.05 0.01 *** -0.03 0.02
Lower primary 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02
Upper primary 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
Secondary or higher 0.15 0.01 *** 0.22 0.03 ***
Interaction terms
2000 * Lower primary -0.02 0.02
2000 * Upper primary -0.01 0.02
2000 * Secondary or higher -0.08 0.03 *
2004 * Lower primary -0.01 0.02
2004 * Upper primary -0.01 0.02
2004 * Secondary or higher -0.09 0.03 **
2010 * Lower primary -0.04 0.02 *
2010 * Upper primary -0.02 0.02
2010 * Secondary or higher -0.08 0.03 *
Accelerated Failure Time Regression: Age at First Birth
Note: All models control for urban/rural and region * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
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• Selection
• Enrollment patterns and grade
progression
• School quality
Why has AFB declined among
secondary school attenders?
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Passed Malawi Secondary Certificate Exam (MSCE)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1975 1985 1995 2005
Pe
rce
nt
of
stu
de
nts
wh
o p
asse
d M
SCE
Year
Total
Girls
Boys
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(1) (2)
OLS First Stage (Yrs schlg) Second Stage (AFB)
Coef. SE Coef. SE Coef. SE
Years of schooling 0.29 0.01 ***
Exposure to Policy
1980-84 (vs. 1976-79)
Ethnicity (ref. Chewa)
Tumbuka -0.25 0.24
Lomwe -0.50 0.17 **
Yao 0.06 0.22
Ngoni -0.03 0.19
Other -0.16 0.18
Religion (ref. Catholic)
Protestant -0.03 0.11
Muslim -0.40 0.21
Other/none 0.10 0.59
Urban 0.03 0.15
Constant 17.47 0.25 ***
Linear Regression: Age at First Birth, Women Born 1976-1984
Note: All models include district-level fixed effects. * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
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(1) (2)
OLS First Stage (Yrs schlg) Second Stage (AFB)
Coef. SE Coef. SE Coef. SE
Years of schooling 0.29 0.01 ***
Exposure to Policy
1980-84 (vs.
1976-79) 0.57 0.12 ***
Ethnicity (ref. Chewa)
Tumbuka -0.25 0.24 1.47 0.32 ***
Lomwe -0.50 0.17 ** 0.08 0.25
Yao 0.06 0.22 0.26 0.31
Ngoni -0.03 0.19 0.73 0.26 **
Other -0.16 0.18 0.01 0.27
Religion (ref. Catholic)
Protestant -0.03 0.11 -0.79 0.16 ***
Muslim -0.40 0.21 -1.64 0.30 ***
Other/none 0.10 0.59 -2.48 0.52 ***
Urban 0.03 0.15 2.71 0.20 ***
Constant 17.47 0.25 *** 5.63 0.35 ***
F-test (Exposure to policy) 23.48 ***
Linear Regression: Age at First Birth, Women Born 1976-1984
Note: All models include district-level fixed effects. * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
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(1) (2)
OLS First Stage (Yrs schlg) Second Stage (AFB)
Coef. SE Coef. SE Coef. SE
Years of schooling 0.29 0.01 *** -0.44 0.21 *
Exposure to Policy
1980-84 (vs. 1976-79) 0.57 0.12 ***
Ethnicity (ref. Chewa)
Tumbuka -0.25 0.24 1.47 0.32 *** 0.83 0.43
Lomwe -0.50 0.17 ** 0.08 0.25 -0.44 0.26
Yao 0.06 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.27 0.31
Ngoni -0.03 0.19 0.73 0.26 ** 0.52 0.32
Other -0.16 0.18 0.01 0.27 -0.14 0.25
Religion (ref. Catholic)
Protestant -0.03 0.11 -0.79 0.16 *** -0.61 0.24 *
Muslim -0.40 0.21 -1.64 0.30 *** -1.62 0.48 ***
Other/none 0.10 0.59 -2.48 0.52 *** -1.78 0.82 *
Urban 0.03 0.15 2.71 0.20 *** 2.02 0.65 **
Constant 17.47 0.25 *** 5.63 0.35 *** 21.84 1.34 ***
F-test (Exposure to policy) 23.48 ***
Linear Regression: Age at First Birth, Women Born 1976-1984
Note: All models include district-level fixed effects. * p<0.05 ** p<0.01 *** p<0.001
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15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1 2 3 4
Ave
rage
age
of
curr
en
tly
en
rolle
d s
tud
en
ts
Year of secondary school
1992
2000
2004
2010
Average Age Currently Enrolled Secondary School Students
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School Quality
• Heterogeneity by type of secondary
school
– Differences in resources, teacher
qualifications, learning outcomes
– Schoolgirl pregnancy
– Labor market prospects
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• What would have happened if
secondary expanded without FPE?
• How well does the experience of
Malawi predict what will happen
elsewhere?
Additional Questions
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0
.05
.1.1
5
Den
sity
10 20 30 40 50afb
Distribution of AFB
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pro
po
rtio
n a
ble
to
re
ad c
om
ple
te s
en
ten
ce
Highest Grade Completed
2000
2004
2010
Grade-specific literacy rates
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