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THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND THE GREATPOPULATION THEORISTSThe demographic transition model (DTM)It is a model of population change based upon effects of economic development.Based on the experience of the western world.Used for decades as a model to predict what should/would happen to developing countries eventually.This model consists of four stages.

2Stage oneDeath and birth rates are high and roughly in balance, equaling little or no population increase.The number of people in each age group is less than the previous one.High infant mortality rate so parents have more children to compensateHigh death rate due to disease, famine, lack of heath-careIs evidence of a pre-industrial society.

In pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates were both high and fluctuated rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. Family planning and contraception were virtually nonexistent; therefore, birth rates were essentially only limited by the ability of women to bear children.

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Stage twoDramatic decline in death rates, but there are high birth rates. Onset of industrialization and related health and medical advancesProduction of food risesMany developing countries are currently in this stageThe changes leading to this stage in Europe were initiated in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th century and were initially quite slow.The decline in the death rate is due initially to two factors:First, improvements in the food supply brought about by higher yields in agricultural practices and better transportation prevent death due to starvation and lack of water. Agricultural improvements included crop rotation, selective breeding, and seed drill technology.Second, significant improvements in public health reduce mortality, particularly in childhood. These are not so much medical breakthroughs (Europe passed through stage two before the advances of the mid-20th century, although there was significant medical progress in the 19th century, such as the development of vaccination) as they are improvements in water supply, sewerage, food handling, and general personal hygiene following from growing scientific knowledge of the causes of disease and the improved education and social status of mothers.5

Stage threeLow death rates, and declining birth rates due to voluntary decisions to reduce family size aided by improved contraception, improved standards of living and education.Fewer labourers needed due to mechanizationEquality of womenMany developing countries are currently in stage 3In rural areas continued decline in childhood death means that at some point parents realize they need not require so many children to be born to ensure a comfortable old age. As childhood death continues to fall and incomes increase parents can become increasingly confident that fewer children will suffice to help in family business and care for them in old age.Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society. Urban living also raises the cost of dependent children to a family. A recent theory suggests that urbanization also contributes to reducing the birth rate because it disrupts optimal mating patterns7

Stage fourLow steady death and birth rates, therefore the population is stableLow natural increase rateMany developed countries are in stage four

Population theories (optimistic views)CornucopiansDesire to expand population questions still remains whether Earth can support it.Faith in human ability to find technological innovations that will produce revolutionary increases in the carrying capacity.

Population theories (optimistic views)D.J. Bogue- 1960sTheory of demographic regulation - over an extended period of time, a society naturally limits its population. Population only grows in response to Earths ability to support larger populationsDemographic transition model developed countries the process has been completed, developing countries the process continues.E.g. China 1 child policy

Population theories (optimistic views)Esther Boserup A Danish agronomistBased research in various land use systems, ranging from extensive shifting cultivation in the tropical rainforests to more intensive multiple cropping, as in South East AsiaShe published The Conditions of Agricultural Growth (1965) where she claimed that demographic pressure promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labour (tools, better techniques). Her key quote is Necessity is the mother of invention i.e. when humans are anticipating shortages of natural resources e.g. food, water and land etc. they find ways , they innovate, to provide these resources.

When population growth finds us pressed for food, people find ways to get more food production out of the land. They cultivate the land more intensively, they add extra manure, extra water and improve their crops. Theyinventtheir way out of the Malthusian crisis. Indeed, the Malthusian trap may even have driven the development of technology.She believed that a growth in population would stimulate a growth in agriculture and technology13Population theories(pessimistic views)Thomas Malthus-British clergyman and Economist who created a theory to provide a possible warning for the future.Lived from 1776- 1834He wrote An essay on the principle of population in 1798It was quite revolutionary and controversial in his timeHis essay is often times described as pessimistic and barbaric, as it predicted nothing short of a catastrophe for the human race.

Just write down who is is and what his essay is called

14MAIN POINTS OF HIS THEORY:Malthuss theory was based on the assumption that the power of population is much greater than the power of the earth to provide subsistence for man. Meaning, he believed that the population would soon surpass its food supply.This, in his belief, could only lead to disease, high infant mortality, famine, starvation, and war.Checks were then necessary to prevent this.

Malthus states that:Population, if left unchecked, will grow arithmetically:1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32

Whereas food supply increases geometrically as the amount of land is finite:1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

there would be a Malthusian catastrophe:And therefore he said PopulationFood supplyTimeFood supplyPopulationAt the point where population reaches its limit of food supply there will be war, famine and disease.Preventative and Positive checksPreventative Checks:Positive Checks:AbortionDelays in marriageStrict celibacy

Which all would lower the fertility rateWarDiseaseFamine

Which would increase the mortality rate and reduce life expectancyWas Malthus Right?Did his rather gloomy theory have any basis in truth? Critics argue that Malthus did not foresee the advancements mankind has made in technology and agriculture. So is his theory relevant to todays society?CattonIntroduced the concept of Earths carrying capacity which states can only be exceeded at the expense of environmental damageSuggests the earth has been exceeding its carrying capacity for many years but excess has only been possible because we are using the worlds finite non-renewable resourcesOur descendants will need industrial raw materials in the future but their wont be anymodernized the views of MalthusThis creates a phantom carrying capacity that is non-sustainable and eventually leads to economic and ecologic collapseA Comparison:Malthus believed:Boserup believed:Food supply limits population sizePopulation growth would soon outstrip food supply.This would lead to famine, war, and disease.Preventative and positive checks would be needed.

With a growth in population people would find new ways of acquiring food.This would lead to technological and agricultural advances.There would be no need to reduce population size.

If Boserup was right, then the most technologically advanced places would be the ones closest to a Malthusian crisis. This is not so. As the places with the larger populations and near starving people, have low tech agriculture.If Malthus was right, places with large populations that are still increasing, will eventually surpass their food supply and become famine and war stricken. Or would have already done so.A Comparison: