the productivity and financial viability of dairy
farms in Pakistan
Sahibzada Shafi ullah
B.Sc. (Honours) Animal Husbandry
B.A. (Bachelor of Arts)
A thesis submitted to the Charles Sturt University for the
degree of Master of Philosophy
Faculty of Science, School of Animal and Veterinary Sciences
Charles Sturt University
Book chapters .............................................................................................................. vii
Reports ........................................................................................................................ vii
Trainings ...................................................................................................................... ix
2.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 8
2.2.1. Smallholder dairy production system........................................................ 10
2.2.2. Mixed farming ........................................................................................... 11
2.3. Key factors affecting smallholder farming ....................................................... 13
2.3.1. Overview ................................................................................................... 13
2.3.5. Trends of intensification in smallholder farming ...................................... 15
ii
2.4.1 Overview ................................................................................................... 16
2.4.3 Poor genetics ............................................................................................. 18
2.4.4 Informal marketing ................................................................................... 19
2.4.6 Poor extension services and lack of technology adoption ........................ 20
2.5. An overview of livestock production in Pakistan ............................................ 21
2.5.1. Overview ................................................................................................... 21
2.5.2. An introduction to dairy livestock sector in Pakistan ............................... 22
2.5.3. Role of smallholder dairy farming in Pakistan ......................................... 23
2.5.4. Characteristics of smallholder farming system ......................................... 24
2.5.4.1. Dairy breeds in Pakistan .................................................................... 24
2.5.4.2. The productivity of buffalo ................................................................ 25
2.5.4.3. Cattle production ............................................................................... 26
2.5.4.5. Land utilization and fodder production ............................................. 30
2.5.4.6. Family structure and labour profile ................................................... 33
2.5.5. Constraints in Pakistani dairy production ................................................. 33
2.6. Computer simulation modelling ....................................................................... 36
2.6.1. What is modelling? ................................................................................... 36
2.6.2. Why integrated simulation model ............................................................. 37
2.6.3. An overview of simulation modelling ...................................................... 39
2.6.4. Crop-livestock components interactions ............................................ 42
Chapter 3 Introduction to the IAT and development of the PIAT .................................. 47
3.1 Background of the original IAT (Integrated Analysis Tool) ............................ 47
3.2 Introduction to the original IAT model ............................................................ 48
3.3 Development of the Pakistani version of the IAT (PIAT) ............................... 49
3.4 Uses of the PIAT .............................................................................................. 51
3.5 Function of the PIAT ........................................................................................ 51
iii
4.1 Climate zone ..................................................................................................... 54
4.5 Crops information ............................................................................................. 55
4.5.1 Harvest information for each crop for 5 years .......................................... 56
4.5.2 Fixed input costs and labour demands ...................................................... 56
4.6 Vegetables, spices and other crops ................................................................... 61
4.7 Plantation and fruit trees information ............................................................... 61
4.8 Animal information .......................................................................................... 61
4.8.2.1 Seasonal availability of feed resources .............................................. 62
4.8.2.2 Animal diets ....................................................................................... 62
4.9 Chickens and other animal information (non-ruminants) ................................ 63
4.10 General farm management information............................................................ 63
5.1.1 APSIM ...................................................................................................... 67
5.1.2 Crop ........................................................................................................... 67
5.1.3 Fodder ....................................................................................................... 68
iv
5.2.1.1 Dynamics of forages production ........................................................ 71
5.2.1.2 Dynamics of livestock growth ........................................................... 71
5.2.1.3 Dynamics of milk production ............................................................ 73
5.2.1.4 Dynamics of Livestock Holdings ...................................................... 75
5.2.1.5 Dynamics of reproduction and disease Incidence ............................. 75
5.3 Socio-economic model and its function ........................................................... 76
5.4 Linking of various models to develop the PIAT .............................................. 79
Chapter 6 Conclusion and recommendations.................................................................. 81
6.2 Limitations of the PIAT ................................................................................... 82
6.3 Further studies .................................................................................................. 84
Appendices ...................................................................................................................... 98
Appendix-II Input data for the PIAT ........................................................................ 110
Appendix-III Production technology of fodder crops ............................................... 115
Appendix-IV Outputs of a real farm scenario on the PIAT ...................................... 119
Appendix-V The PIAT User Manual ........................................................................ 129
v
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 The gross value of livestock products in developing countries. ...................... 2
Figure 2.1 Calving pattern in Sahiwal, Sahiwal-Friesian crossbreds and Nili-Ravi
buffaloes .......................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 2.2 A general, schematic representation of the components of agricultural
systems and their interactions ......................................................................................... 43
Figure 2.3 Schematic representation of the smallholder farming system and associated
resource flows in Pakistan. .............................................................................................. 46
Figure 3.1 Structure of the IAT. ...................................................................................... 49
Figure 5.1 The IAT Predicted (lines) and observed (points) liveweight of Bali cattle. .. 72
Figure 5.2 The PIAT Predicted (lines) and observed (points) liveweight of Sahiwal
cattle ................................................................................................................................ 73
Figure 5.3 The PIAT predicted (lines) and observed (points) milk curve of Sahiwal
cattle at various farms. ................................................................................................... 74
Figure 5.4 The PIAT predicted (lines) and observed (points) milk curve of a single
Sahiwal cattle breed. ....................................................................................................... 74
Figure 5.5 The principal interactions associated with the dynamics of livestock holdings
for milk production ......................................................................................................... 76
Figure 5.6 Schematic representation of the complexity of the smallholder systems. ..... 78
vi
Table 2.2 Feed by Products ............................................................................................. 29
Table 2.3 Common crop and forage grown in Pakistan .................................................. 32
Table 4.1 Crop input database sheet for 5 years. ........................................................... 58
Table 4.2 Forage input database sheet of 6 harvests per year for 5 years. ...................... 59
Table 4.3 Example data required regarding available labour ........................................ 64
Table 4.4 Example of the data required regarding who is permitted to do which
activities .......................................................................................................................... 65
Table 5.1 A list of crops, forage, concentrate, and residues the IAT support ................. 69
vii
Book chapters
1. Shafiullah, S. (2009). Feeding management of dairy buffaloes In U.
Krishnamoorthy (Ed.), A handbook of dairy animals: American Soybean
Association.
2. Shafiullah, S. (2009). Management of dairy animals under hot environment. In
U. Krishnamoorthy (Ed.), A handbook of dairy animals: American
Soybean Association.
Journal articles and proceedings
1. Shafiullah, S., & Wynn, P. (2011). The development of a simulation model to
analyse the productivity and financial viability of dairy farms Paper
presented at the International Workshop on Dairy Science Park, Agricultural
University Peshawar, Pakistan. http://en.engormix.com/MA-dairy-
cattle/articles/the-development-simulation-model-t2070/p0.htm
2. Chand, N., Muhammad, D., Durrani, F., Qureshi, M. S., & Ullah, S. S. (2011).
Protective Effects of Milk Thistle (Silybum marianum) against Aflatoxin B1
in Broiler Chicks. Asian-Australasian journal of animal sciences, 24, 1011 -
1018.
3. Khan, S. S., Warriach, M. H., McGill, D. M., Bush, R. D., & Wynn, P. C. (2010,
11–15 July 2010). Effectiveness of the Provision of Extension Services for
Small-holder Dairy Farmers in Two Regions of the Punjab in Pakistan.
Paper presented at the The 28th Biennial Conference of ASAP, University
of New England, Armidale, New South Wales.
Reports
Shafiullah, S. (2006). Role of community based resource management project
regarding livestock production (pp. 1-124). Buner: Swiss development &
cooperation
Conferences/Workshops
viii
“Global food security – challenges and opportunities for animal science” 13
October, 2011, Charles Sturt University, Wagga.
“Research Higher Degree Symposium 2011”, 1-2 nd
December 2011, Charles
Sturt University, Wagga Wagga campus.
“The Seven Secrets of highly successful research students” presented by Hugh
Kearns, 18th October for Research Higher Degree Students, Charles Sturt
University, Wagga Wagga.
31 August 2011, Charles Sturt University, Albury.
Crawford Fund Annual Parliamentary Conferences „The Supermarket
Revolution in Food: Good, Bad or Ugly for the World's Farmers,
Consumers and Retailers?14, 15 & 16 August, 2011, Parliament House,
Canberra.
What's Changed? 19th August 2011, Charles Sturt University, Wagga
Wagga.
Wagga Wagga.
„Ask the expert: Difficulty in expert estimation of transmission of MRSA between
the environment, pets and people, 1 st February 2011, Charles Sturt
University, Wagga.
„The Universitys Role in a Changing World, 8 th
February 2011, Charles Sturt
University, Wagga Wagga.
„The trouble with Epidemiology: The tyranny of numbers 22 February 2011,
Charles Strut University, Wagga Wagga.
„Contemporary issues in wildlife management in Africa today, 10 th
March 2011,
Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga.
„Bulls, bugs and sex, 21 st June 2011, Charles Sturt University, Wagga.
„Milk, is there anything more important? 26 th
July 2011, Charles Sturt
University, Wagga Wagga.
„The Annual Graham Centre Beef Field Day August 4 2011, Convention
Centre, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga campus.
„The Annual Graham Centre Beef Field Day August 5 2011, Convention
Centre, Charles Sturt University, Wagga campus.
ix
Shafiullah, S. (2010, 9-10th December 2010). The development of an assessment
tool to analyse the productivity and financial viability of dairy farms in
Pakistan. Paper presented at the 2010 Research Higher Degree Symposium,
CSU Convention Centre, Wagga Wagga.
“Research Higher Degree Symposium 2010”, 9-10th December 2010, Charles
Sturt University, Wagga Wagga campus.
„The Annual Graham Centre Beef Field Day December 1 2009, Joyes Hall,
Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga campus.
„International Livestock & Poultry Congress and Expo 2008
22-23 April 2008, Aiwan-e-Iqbal Complex Lahore
Organized and conducted „Livestock investment conference with collaboration
of Sarhad Chamber of Commerce (SCC) and Livestock Research & Dairy
Development (LR&DD) Pesh. at Pearl Continental Hotel Peshawar.
„Education for Wildlife Sustainability 30- 31 January 2008, UVAS-Lahore.
„Rabies and Free Anti-Rabies Vaccination Campaign 29November, 2007,
UVAS-Lahore
Animal Husbandry Association (PAHA), Islamabad.
„Feeding management of dairy animals 24 March 2005, by American Soybean
association (ASA), at KP Agricultural University Peshawar.
Trainings
„Writing in the Sciences workshop 20-27 th
July and 3-10 th
University, Wagga Wagga campus.
May-10 th
„Artificial insemination training workshop September 14-16, 2009, at School of
Animal and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Wagga Wagga.
„Dairy nutrition training workshope March 23 to April 1, 2009, organized by
Agricultural sector linkages program, at Charles Sturt University, Wagga
Wagga.
x
„Curricula development for dairy training center One month training in 2008
by Piet Tesselor from PTC + Oenkerk Netherlandsat at UVAS.
„Fodder & Forages 13-18 th
Department (LR&DD), Peshawar.
„Milk value added products and technology 21-25 June 2005, at Livestock
research & development department (LR&DD), Peshawar.
„Artificial Insemination and breeding 31 July-19 August 2006, at the Govt.
cattle & dairy farm harichand, Charsedda.
xi
I Sahibzada Shafi ullah
Hereby declare that this submission is my own work and that, to the best of my
knowledge and belief, it contains no material previously published or written by
another person nor material which to a substantial extent has been accepted for the
award of any other degree or diploma at Charles Sturt University or any other
educational institution, except where due acknowledgment is made in the thesis.
Any contribution made to the research by colleagues with whom I have worked at
Charles Sturt University or elsewhere during my candidature is fully
acknowledged.
I agree that the thesis be accessible for the purpose of study and research in
accordance with the normal conditions established by the University Librarian for
the care, loan and reproduction of the thesis.*
Signature Date 20, November 2012
* Subject to confidentiality provisions as approved by the University
HD7 CERTIFICATE OF
THESIS DOCTORAL AND
MASTER BY RESEARCH
The content and preparation of this dissertation represents assistance of numerous
persons. The funding support of AusAID is dually acknowledged. I feel pride in
expressing my profound and cordial gratitude to my adored supervisor Prof. Dr. Peter
Wynn for his splendid support during my candidature. My acknowledgement is
extended to Mr. Cam Mcdonald with deep gratitude for his intellectual and untiring
support in the model development. My thanks also extended to Mr. Ted Wolf for his
inspiring guidance and concrete suggestions in thesis writing.
I sincerely acknowledge the valuable contribution of the whole ASLP team including
Mr. David McGill and Dr. Hassan Warriach who made this research possible to be
accomplished. I express my heartiest regards to all staff and colleagues at school of
Animal and Veterinary Sciences, CSU, especially Liz Anschaw. I am very grateful to
the many colleagues who have shared their data. I am also very thankful to all those not
recognised who have made significant contribution to this research.
I take this opportunity to express my deep sense of obligation to Prof. Dr. Muhammed
Subhan Qureshi for his encouraging attitude and inspiring guidance.
I am heartily grateful to my friends Muhammed Riaz Khan, Muhammad Shoaib Tufail,
and Sosheel Godfrey for their cooperation, assistance and moral support during my
research.
This thesis is dedicated to my loving parents, brothers, and sisters for their kind support.
“There is no tomorrow”
Professional Editorial Assistance
Some editorial assistance was obtained in reviewing and correcting drafts of the thesis
by Mr. Ted Wolf. The services provided included suggestions for improvements and
revising English expression, formatting, grammar and style.
xiv
Abbreviations
PIAT The Pakistani version of Integrated Assessment Tool
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
ASLP Agricultural Sector Linkages Programme
APSIM The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator
DM (%) Dry matter
CP (%) Crude protein
EE (%) Either extract
CF (%) Crude fibber
TM (%) Total minerals
1
Abstract
Livestock play a vital role in the global economy. It is an important component of the
livelihood systems for the rural poor in developing countries including Pakistan where
the demand for meat and dairy products is increasing. In these countries livestock
farming is a subsistence activity carried out by smallholder farmers. In Pakistan dairy
livestock is a dominant farming practice and milk is the most important commodity for
farmers. These smallholder dairy farmers face a lot of challenges including low
production, high input cost, poor quality feed, fodder shortage, drought period, long
calving interval and outdated farming practices.
It is hard to comprehend this system because of the complexity and highly significant
interactions that occur between the various components of smallholders systems. Due
to this complexity any managemental changes to the system often result in counter-
intuitive production, economic and social impacts. In order to understand and analyse
these impacts, an integrated systems approach is required.
The current study is based on the development of a decision support simulation model
called PIAT (Pakistani Integrated Analysis Tool) for smallholder dairy farming in
Pakistan. The PIAT is a whole-farm simulation model which will be developed to such
an extent that it can reliably simulate the key processes and interactions within the
smallholder, crop-livestock farming systems in Pakistan. The PIAT will be developed
from an already developed simulation model called IAT (Integrated Analysis Tool)
which has been developed for the smallholder beef farms in Indonesia. The original IAT
will be modified in such a way that it can reliably simulate the key processes and
interactions within the dairy system of smallholders in Pakistan.
The PIAT model will be used as a forecast tool to calculate the economic and
environmental effects of the implementation of any intervention on dairy farms. The
aim of the model is to evaluate alternative farm management strategies including crop,
forage, and livestock options.
This thesis describes the process of the PIAT development. The required data collection
and parameterization is also explained in this study.
2
Chapter 1 Introduction
Globally, the livestock sector provides over 40 percent of agricultural gross domestic
product and it provides almost 33% of protein intake to the human population (C.
Matthews, 2006). In some developing countries, livestock accounts for up to 80% of
agricultural gross domestic products (Pica, Pica-Ciamarra, & Otte, 2008). Livestock is a
unique subsector of agricultural economies in developing countries (Fig 1.1). Figure
shows that livestock is billions of dollars industry in the developing countries especially
in Asia and Pakistan is one of them where livestock in the core industry for the majority
of the population (Economic Survey of Pakistan, 2010).
Figure 1.1 The gross value of livestock products in developing countries.
(Source: Thornton & Herrero 2001)
The world demand for livestock products is expanding due to the growth in both the
population and incomes, along with changing food preferences towards meat, milk,
cheese and egg products. Collectively, the livestock industries provide a livelihood for
about 1.3 billion people. These industries comprise the largest subsector of the
agricultural economies of most developing and transition countries. The livestock sector
3
is evolving very quickly in developing countries, where the demand for meat and dairy
products is increasing and where more affluent consumers are increasingly demanding
healthy food.
Livestock farming plays a vital role to the livelihoods of more than 1 billion poor in
developing countries (Cain, Anwar, & Rowlinson, 2007). Livestock are an important
component of the livelihood systems for the rural poor in these countries as they provide
food, draft power, bio-fertilizer, energy, fibre, while also serving other economic and
social functions (Staal, 2002). Current economic and social policies of many countries
within an ever changing global economy tend to favour livestock production in
developing countries. Per capita demand for milk and meat is increasing at a faster rate
in developing countries as compared to developed countries (McDermott, Staal,
Freeman, Herrero, & Van de Steeg, 2010). The rapidly growing demand for livestock
and livestock products and the high importance of farm animals in households assets in
developing countries provide extraordinary opportunities to utilize livestock as an
instrument for the intensification and development of sustainable pathways for poverty
alleviation (McDermott, Randolph, & Staal, 1999). While growing markets provide an
opportunity for poverty alleviation, there is still a need to preserve the traditional
systems of production. Although food imports and large-scale local production of meat
and milk are needed to meet part of increasing demand for livestock products, there
remains a need to work steadily with smallholder livestock producers to ease them
towards a program of modernisation and efficiency in production.
This thesis deals with the smallholder production systems of dairy farmers in Pakistan,
where livestock are raised as subsistence farming and where milk is the most important
commodity for the farmers. The majority of the farming in Pakistan (more than 95%) is
based on smallholdings with less than 10 animals per household (Afzal, 2010;
McDermott, et al., 2010). Smallholders most often feed their animals with low quality
feed. They tie up their livestock in a stall and feed them with cut and carried fodder and
crop residues. Animals are usually underfed and consequently they are not able to yield
milk according to their genetic potential. On-farm family work is a year-round practice
while additional labour is often hired to assist with harvesting and land preparation
activities. Although livestock farming provides a main income source of smallholder
dairy farmers, supplementary income may be sought from off-farm activities that are
either agricultural or non-agricultural in nature. Smallholder dairy farmers in Pakistan
4
generally operate a mixed farming system. The system consists of a tightly integrated
package of elements that might include crop-livestock, land, labour, economic, social,
and cultural activities. To comprehend and analyse this complex system an integrated
systems approach is required. To assist smallholder farmers for better production,
modelling offers the only realistic way of identifying and quantifying the subtle but
often highly significant interactions that occur between the various components of the
smallholder farming system (Thornton & Herrero, 2001).
The research question address by this thesis is: Can we develop model to predict
productivity of a farm following implementation of changes in measuring strategies on
smallholder farms in Pakistan. The null hypothesis is-the implementation of PIAT is not
useful for prediction of outcomes productivity in smallholder farmers to change
strategies.
Computer simulation is an actual system model, which is largely unaffected by
experimental conditions, time and space constraints, while at the same time retaining
great flexibility. Nowadays, simulation modelling is often used in various areas of the
agricultural and livestock sector. It is an important tool for extension education and
research into the farming industries. There are many computer models being used
currently in developed countries, but very few are being used in developing countries. A
number of integrated simulation models have been developed in developing countries
to capture the key processes and interactions of various farming components of small
holder farming operations in a single model (Herrero, Fawcett, Dent, McGregor, &
Sibbald, 1996; MacLeod, McDonald, Lisson, & Rahman, 2007; Thorne, 1998; Thornton
& Herrero, 2001). The Pakistani situation is, however, different from the rest of the
world. There are no studies of simulation modelling for the smallholder dairy industry
and for other agricultural and livestock systems. A few software packages (mostly
nutrition based) were imported but they are not active and they have not gained
popularity in the country. Because most of the models were not based on local
information, they were not able to generate realistic outputs; and thus have not been
adopted by the research, extension, or farming communities.
The objective of the current research is to develop a computer simulation model for
smallholder dairy farmers in Pakistan to identify their constraints and possible solution.
The model will be called the “Pakistani integrated analysis tool” with the acronym
PIAT. The PIAT will be used to explore the opportunities and constraints with the aim
5
of increasing the productivity of smallholder dairy farms in Pakistan. The model uses
local agricultural, livestock, environmental, and social information to produce more
acceptable outputs. All the required data will be collected from literature, surveys, and
interviews. The establishment of the current simulation model PIAT could have a far-
reaching strategic significance and important practical consequences.
The present research strategy is built on the considerable advances that were made in
the AusAID funded ASLP programme in Pakistan. This project is working with
smallholder dairy farmers in two districts of Punjab (Okara and Bhakkar) in Pakistan. In
the initial studies of the project a greater emphasis was placed on building relationships
with the key stakeholders and then to develop an understanding of the crop-livestock
production systems through benchmarking, surveying, monitoring and general
observation. In the first phase of the project, the focus was on improving the
smallholder dairy productivity by improving general animal husbandry practices
including feeding practices and particularly forage availability and quality. In the
second phase of the project emphasis is being given to the development of an integrated
simulation tool necessary to assess the production, economic, environmental and social
benefits and risks experienced at the smallholder farm level. In future the tool will be
used to undertake desktop studies to develop and test crop-forage-livestock options in
partnership with the smallholder farmers and the extension workers who provide their
advice on production systems. The simulation tool will be developed out of the original
tool which has already been developed by Mcdonald (2010) and his team of CSIRO for
smallholder beef farming systems in Indonesia called IAT (Integrated analysis tool)
(McDonald, et al., 2010). A number of necessary changes will be made to the original
IAT to make it adoptable for Pakistani smallholder dairy system. The role of the
Pakistani project team is to redesign the input and output forms, to modify the input
coefficients, to collect necessary data and to incorporate that data into the original IAT.
The team will also have to validate the PIAT once it is developed. The author will have
a leading role in the development of the model. The role of the author is to review
smallholder farming system in Pakistan to understand the big picture of the system and
the interaction of various component of the system which are necessary for the PIAT
development. The author will also collect all the necessary information required to
modify the original IAT. The author will describe the development of the PIAT in
detail. Once the model is developed the team will run a few scenarios for validation of
the model.
6
One of the primary aims of the PIAT is to understand the effect of different
management and on-farm interventions on smallholders and their families, who are at
least partially dependent on the farm and its resources for their livelihoods. The purpose
of using the model is to understand smallholder farm production systems in order to
identify suitable approaches to increase farmers incomes with a special focus on milk
production. It will help the extension workers, research workers, and progressive
farmers to improve management and aid in decision-making for both farmers and policy
developers. The tool will be used to estimate the economic impact of alternative farming
management and production strategies. The PIAT model could be used as a prediction
tool to forecast the impact or outcome of certain on-farm trials. For example, the model
could also be used to predict farm production (crops, fodder, milk) before making any
intervention on a farm i.e. introducing new crops or fodder varieties, increasing or
decreasing cropping areas, increasing or decreasing number of animals, and introducing
a new animal breed into the farm.
This research describes an approach to develop an integrated analysis tool (PIAT) to
explore opportunities to increase the dairy production of smallholders in Pakistan. The
topic of this thesis is “the development of an assessment tool to analyse the productivity
and financial viability of smallholder dairy farms in Pakistan”. This topic will be
investigated first from a review of the relevant literature that deals with the
characteristics of dairy farming at the smallholder level, using literature that draws on
experience in developing countries across Asia and Africa. The literature will then be
used to derive a list of key factors that affect small farming operations in developing
countries. Key issues in smallholder dairy production will then be discussed. The
characteristics and role of smallholder farmers in Pakistans dairy industry will be
discussed and the major constraints to the volume of milk produced and efficiency of
dairy production will be stated. Feeding and feed management of dairy animals will also
be discussed in relation to land utilization and fodder production practices.. The
literature will also be used to describe modelling and the development and uses of key
integrated simulation models. The interaction of various components of the mixed
livestock smallholding system which is important for model development will also be
reviewed. The use and potential application of simulation models will then be assessed,
initially in general terms and then specifically for their potential for use in the context of
Pakistan.
7
In the chapter following, the original IAT will be defined and a brief background and its
uses will be discussed. The function of the model will also be explained. In the next
chapter the mechanisms for data collection and parameterization will be discussed. The
collection of information and its integration into the model will also be explained. This
information includes climate zones, seasons, soil type, labour, social and economics
required for the model development. The information needed for the crop and livestock
models will also be given in detail. Data collection on feeding and feed quality will also
be explained. The development of technical coefficients will also be discussed in the
same chapter.
In subsequent chapters, a simulation model that may be useful in representing the
production from small dairies in Pakistan, the PIAT, will be described. The PIAT
development and modification will be explained. The structure of the model and various
sections will be given. The mechanism of linking various models to develop the PIAT
will also be explained. This model, in the form of an excel spreadsheet; will be applied
to selected situations in Pakistan.
In the final section of this thesis, limitations of the PIAT will also be given. From the
conclusion of this exercise, suggestions will be made on necessary steps towards the
application of simulation modeling and its future use to assist the development of the
dairy industry in Pakistan.
2.1. Introduction
The first step involved in developing a successful tool for mapping and developing
smallholder production models is the developing of a clear understanding of how the
farming systems in these sites function, and quantifying the associated resource flows
and farm productivity. It is obvious from various literatures that the modelling process
starts from the background understanding of a system (Black, Davies, & Fleming,
1993). Building a complete understanding of the biological, social and economic
aspects of these systems is a necessary ingredient for determining intervention points
and the development of appropriate technologies for smallholder farmers. This review is
focussed on agriculture, livestock and rural information, all of which are very important
components for the setting up of the prediction model. Because smallholder livestock
production is a complex system which interacts with other agricultural and social
components, it is necessary to understand the smallholder livestock system and its
characteristics in some detail before developing the simulation model for them.
In this chapter smallholder livestock farming characteristics and their various aspects
will be reviewed. The reasons why milk production is an important activity in
developing countries will be explored. Sustainability, future opportunities and
challenges for smallholder farmers will also be discussed. It is very important for the
success of the model to know the characteristics of the smallholder farming system that
it is intended to serve (Du, Li, Li, & Shen, 2011). Computer simulation modelling will
be reviewed in the subsequent section of this chapter. The importance of an integrated
simulation model in mixed farming system will be explained. At the end, the interaction
of crop livestock component will also be described in detail.
2.2. The characteristics of small farming
In developing countries, livestock are maintained by smallholder farmers who form the
major part of any rural farming system: their holdings are usually less than 2 ha. These
farms support various crops and a small herd of mixed-species cattle and buffaloes
consisting of 1-5 animals (Herrero et al., 2009; Pica, et al., 2008; Rahman et al., 2008).
Smallholder farmers live on an income of less than $1 a day. Moll et al. (2007) found
out that small dairy farming is usually run as an intensive production system where
9
animals are raised and stall fed with cut and carried fodders or grasses from a small self-
grown or irrigated area. A small quantity of concentrates is fed to animals. Paterson et
al., (1998) also have reviewed smallholder farming system in developing countries.
They found that feeding of livestock was mainly cut-and-carry with planted fodders and
crop residues, supplemented by forage gathered from common properties around the
farm and purchased from neighbours. Smallholder dairy farmers utilise family labour
while casual labourers are also hired by some farmers for land preparation and
harvesting (Staal, 2002).
Access to veterinary and extension services is very limited. Consequently, the per
capita production is very low at around 1600 litres per lactation (Bashir, 2006; McGill
& Wynn, 2011). Managing dairy livestock is generally a labour intensive activity
depending on the use of family labour and sometime hired labour. Cows are generally
milked by hand and milk is transported by bicycles or by foot to the points of sale
(Staal, 2002). Smallholder livestock farming is an iconic practice in developing
countries; farmers earn more than 80% of their total incomes from livestock farming
(Rodriguez, 2008; Seo & Mendelsohn, 2007). Moll et al. (2007) reported that livestock
provide a great opportunity for owners to express their status in the community as
people are known for the size of their herd. Their animals are a part of their life as it
provides them with a livelihood. Although smallholder livestock farming is a popular
farming activity, it is essentially a subsistence activity.
The first objective of smallholder farming is the provision of food and a basic income
while large profits are a secondary consideration (Waithaka, Thornton, Herrero, &
Shepherd, 2006). Dairy cattle provide farm families with food, manure to maintain soil
fertility, traction power for farms, cash income, trading, a mean of transportation, and a
mean of saving and investment (B. Khan & Iqbal, 2009; McDermott, et al., 1999;
Thorpe, Muriuki, Omore, Owango, & Staal, 2000). Milk from dairy animals supplies
quality protein, minerals and vitamins to rural poor. Those families who have no
livestock to raise suffer more from nutritional deficiencies than those having livestock
because they cannot afford to buy milk and milk products to fulfil their basic nutritional
requirements (Afzal, 2010). According to Moll et al. (2007) the combination of low
opportunity cost for labour, shortage of cultivable land, and locally developed milk
markets ensures dairy farming is a competitive business over other farming businesses.
10
Livestock can be easily converted to cash or used as an insurance to borrow cash from
others for unexpected regular expenses such as hospitalization, weddings or school fees.
Farm yard manure is used as inorganic fertilizer for crops production as well as a fuel
source by making dried dung cakes; it is also used for biogas production. These
smallholders have some typical characteristics that are almost the same in the majority
of developing countries. Some common features of smallholders livestock farmers are
now discussed.
2.2.1. Smallholder dairy production system
Dairy livestock farming is one of the dominant activities in rural livestock farming
(Cain, et al., 2007). Stall (2002) reported that by 2020, developing countries would
produce more than 50% of total global milk, increasing from 38% in 1997. Dairy
farming is expanding in developing countries due to the growing human population of
urban areas, the increasing income levels and the improving knowledge of the benefits
of animal proteins in the human diet (Qureshi, 2008). Studies have shown that more
than 85% of farmers practice dairy farming in developing countries (Staal, 2002;
Thorpe, et al., 2000). This sector offers opportunities for many millions of poor: it
provides employment opportunities in rural and peri-urban areas to eradicate poverty
through the generation of supplementary income. Studies have shown that in regions
where cattle predominate smallholders farmers prefers dairy over beef farming (Thorpe,
et al., 2000). Milk has the virtue of generating income constantly and accumulating
capital. The estimated annual growth in milk and other dairy product across developing
countries has increased by 3.3% due to population growth, urbanisation and increased
consumers purchasing power in the last decades (Thorpe, et al.).
For poor farmers, dairy farming provides a more accessible source of constant income
than crop farming as income from crop selling is seasonal while day to day family
expenditure is usually met by selling milk. It is open to a majority of small farmers as
there is always a big demand for the milk. They found that average cash income from
selling animals is about 59% of the total annual income. Stall (2002) concluded that
high income from milk has a positive effect on child and womens welfare and
nutrition, since the finance is often retained by the wife.
The daily average milk production is 10 litres per farm, of which a quarter is kept for
home consumption and the rest is sold in local markets to neighbours or retailers (A.
11
Iqbal, Mirza, & Raza, 2010; McDermott, et al., 2010; Thorpe, et al., 2000). Milk
produced by these smallholder dairy farmers is marketed through informal market
systems. In some region where cooperative societies have been developed milk is also
marketed through formal chains but it represents only 12% of the total milk produced
(Thorpe, et al., 2000).
Smallholder dairy farmers in developing countries operate a mixed farming system,
with close interaction between the dairy enterprise and food and cash crops. This system
is also one of the dominant systems in the world. Globally, two-thirds of the world
farming population is practicing some form of mixed farming system. It is believed that
much of the future farming growth will occur in smallholder mixed farming
(McDermott, et al., 2010). Mixed farming constitutes the backbone of much agriculture
in the tropics. It is believed that this system provides over 90% of the worlds milk and
is the most common form of livestock operation in developing countries; in addition,
mixed systems include some 70% of the poor livestock keepers (McDermott, et al.,
2010; Thornton & Herrero, 2001). Mixed farming systems employ many millions of
people on farms and in formal and informal markets, processing plants, and other
components of long value chains (Herrero, et al., 2009). Furthermore, mixed crop-
livestock systems could be the key to future food security. Thornton and Herrero (2001)
reported that in developing countries, increasing integration of crops and livestock is
going to occur over at least the next 30 years. The interaction between cropping and
livestock husbandry offers many opportunities to sustainably increase production by
raising productivity and increasing efficiency of resource utilization in both households
and over regions (Herrero et al., 2010).
Livestock form a very important component of a mixed system and the keeping of
livestock serves multiple purposes (Rahman, et al., 2008). In mixed farming, livestock
provide a buffer against crop failure; it also has a diverse cultural and religious role in
the society. Studies have shown that the increase in the number of livestock kept on
farms in developing countries is partly attributed to several years of crop failure, with
the livestock enterprise used as a risk management tool (Cain, et al., 2007).
12
2.2.3. Sustainability and future opportunity
Smallholder farming associated with low productivity results in low income, but in
many contexts, smallholders are more competitive and resilient in their local situation as
compared to larger producers. Smallholder farming systems are more appropriate in
developing countries where farmers have free access to grazing of communal land. The
opportunity cost for land and capital is zero and so most of the pasture lands are under-
utilized being used mostly for livestock keepers who have free access to those natural
pastures. . Also the reliance on family labour and low overheads make them competitive
in informal and traditional markets. McDermott et al. (1999) showed that smallholder
dairy farmers producing 20 litres of milk per day were more efficient than larger scale
farmers producing more than 150 litres a day. Since family labour is cheap and crop
residues almost so, the smallholders will remain dominant in the dairy industry for
many years, although they will need to adopt change in the processes of investing of
their products (McDermott, et al., 2010).
In agricultural based countries, people in rural and urban areas have low incomes. They
cannot afford to pay extra amounts involved in dairy product processing. Therefore
informal milk markets are a predominant activity in developing countries which also
favour smallholder dairy farmers (Staal, 2001; Thorpe, et al., 2000). McDermott et al.
(2010) reported that smallholder livestock represent about 20% of the world population
and they cultivate most of the agricultural land in the tropics. It is clear from their report
that the increases in future demand for the livestock in developing countries provides
extraordinary opportunities to livestock production as an instrument for poverty
reduction and sustainable environmental improvement. There is clear evidence that
smallholder livestock farming opportunities increase day by day due to an increase in
per capita income. With a growing population and growing human urbanization, the
consumption of animal products will increase significantly in all developing countries
by 2020 (Staal, 2002). It has been predicted that the consumption of meat and milk will
grow by up to 50% in the period from 1983 to 2020, to about 44 and 87 kg/capita/year,
respectively (Delgado, Rosegrant, & Meijer, 2001).
Natural resources and high-potential agricultural lands across the globe are shrinking as
soils become infertile, land is degraded, water sources are depleted, soil carbon lost,
farm sizes shrink, and farm productivity decreases (Waithaka, et al., 2006). Recent
investigation suggests that most of these lands will not respond to fertilization.
13
Therefore, livestock and crop integration is necessary for the future improvement and
sustainability of productivity. Herrero et al. (2010) reported that in developing
countries, the pressures on so-called "high-potential" cultivable lands are very high
leading to infertility and lower crop yield. In recent decades the return of livestock to
farming systems has improved the sustainability of farms.
2.3. Key factors affecting smallholder farming
2.3.1. Overview
There are many factors contributing to smallholder farming systems in various ways.
For example, the consumers preference for locally available raw milk is important to
smallholder dairy farming. Similarly, an increase in per capita income leads to greater
demand for livestock and livestock products that in turn encourages smallholders in a
region to increase their production. On the other hand, some factors have negative
impacts on the smallholder such as price inflation, inappropriate regulatory policies, and
climate change.
These factors also inhibit smallholders to adopt new technologies. There are a number
of challenges faced by smallholders to compete with large and extensive farming. Due
to the lack of resources and poor infrastructure smallholders cannot afford the high
input costs required to compete with the larger farmers in the area. Consequently this
increases the market power of intermediaries. The first important thing to improve the
smallholders capacity is to provide them with basic infrastructure such as such as
roads, railway networks, product storage facilities, transportation, markets and
processing facilities. This leaves individual farmers with more room to bargain, because
input suppliers and output buyers would face more competition. In these cases, much of
the profit from improved agricultural technologies may be captured by smallholder
farmers. Since all of these factors play an important role in analysing the efficiency of
any farming system within a region, their influence is detailed here.
2.3.2. Consumers’ preferences
In developing countries consumers prefer raw milk which provides a competitive
advantage for smallholder farmers who are unable to process the milk for the market
level. According to McDermott et al. (1999) smallholders provide 40% of total milk
produced in urbanized markets. He stated that in urbanized markets larger dairy farmers
14
were less competitive as they were dependent largely on less reliable hired labour and
high priced inputs.
2.3.3. Economic growth and high demand drivers
The per capita income of a country has a great effect on smallholding livestock
production. According to Herrero et al. (2009), the demand for livestock products
increased very quickly in countries where daily per capita income increases. He found
out that households having a daily income of more than US$2 were obtaining their basic
caloric need from livestock and their products. In countries where family income level
is less than US$2 people obtain their caloric needs from a cheaper source, like cereals
and roots and tubers.
Nevertheless, economic growth in developing countries has a positive impact on
improving the rural lifestyle: however, it also has some negative effects on smallholder
farming systems. Increasing economic growth tends to encourage more rural migration
from livestock and agricultural farming to other businesses or modes of employment.
The end result is greater urbanization. However, this migration may have a positive
impact on livestock farming as farms would be consolidated and become more
specialized and commercialized (McDermott, et al., 1999).
In Pakistan there is little hope of ignoring these demand drivers, which broadly
determine the need for progress. This may include the scaling up of the local dairy
industry, so that it becomes more efficient in response to both on and off farm factors.
2.3.4. Government policies and control
Government policies play a great role in small farming systems. Without balanced,
equitable and pro-active policies, smallholders will have a lot more difficulty in taking
part in these complex and demanding value chains (McDermott, et al., 1999). Policy
interventions can alter the opportunities and incentives for smallholder farming systems.
For example setting fixed livestock product prices is one such biased government
policy. On the one hand, commodity prices may be regulated by government agencies.
Whereas on the other, farm inputs cost or prices are uncontrolled and a free market
system operates. This control can drastically affect the livestock sector in these
countries. A free market is a preferable option in developing countries, as high demand
and low supply will encourage farmers to increase their farm production. According to
15
Zia (2007), who analysed trends in milk marketing chains in Pakistan where both input
and output price fluctuation occurred within 5 years, input costs increased by 100-200%
whereas there was no significant increase in the farm output price. This imbalance
severely affected on-farm production because farmers even could not recover their cost
of production. This situation has not only discouraged new investment in dairy
production but also caused the existing dairy farms to shut down. The key points to
improve effective dairy production are to organize farmers, to integrate their production
with the marketing, to update milk marketing chains by adoption of modern product
handling technology, and to improve the earning power of farms. In order to achieve
these objectives the participation of farmers or their representatives must be insured in
policy making.
2.3.5. Trends of intensification in smallholder farming
There is an increasing trend for farming intensification in developing countries due to
certain pressures. These include a high demand for livestock products and a substitution
of capital for labour and land resources as enterprises shift from smallholder to
commercial systems (Staal, Pratt, & Jabbar, 2008). McDermott et al. (2010) have also
reported that the increasing demand for food in developing countries is related to the
intensification of livestock production systems. This is evident in south Asia where
farmers have moved away from crop and ruminant production to embrace intensive
poultry production. Some of the scientists believe that this intensification is the only
solution to feeding the fast growing population in developing countries. Other scientists
believe that this pathway would caused imbalances in the system and could lead to
resource depletion (Sundrum, 2001). This shifting and intensification of livestock
industries will have a negative impact on the environment through pollution and
increasing disease outbreaks in both livestock and human populations (Herrero, et al.,
2010). This type of intensification could lead the world towards complications (Gregory
& Ingram, 2000). The world has already experienced such outcomes in the last 20 years
through the incidence of bird flu and swine flu. Intensification of livestock farming will
also increase feed and water demand leading to soil carbon loss due to over-grazing and
water scarcity. In most developing countries highly productive irrigated areas have
reached their limits of productivity, whereas a growing population is dependent on them
for their food (Eswaran, Beinroth, & Reich, 1999).
16
McDermott et al. (1999) outlined the impact that water scarcity is having on agriculture.
The scarcity of fresh water is becoming alarming in most developing countries due to
the high demand and irregular use in the agricultural and livestock sector. According to
them each calorie of food produced takes approximately 1 litre of water. Economic
growth and other structural changes are leading these countries to greater competition
for the water between crops, livestock and other non-agricultural systems.
In developing countries, factors like changing consumers preferences, seasonal demand
for livestock products, and input and output price fluctuation make it very hard to
analyse smallholder systems in a simple way (McDermott, et al., 2010). Therefore, there
is a need to adopt a model-based approach to evaluate the impact of such factors on
smallholder farming. The objective of the present research is to describe technologies
for sustainable dairy production in Pakistan that may help to ensure a long term success.
The model will be used to evaluate alternative farm management strategies based on
resource availability, and to assess changes in farm profitability resulting from changes
in input costs and output prices.
2.4. Key issues in smallholder dairy production
2.4.1 Overview
Although smallholder dairy farming in developing countries is potentially a sustainable
farming practice, it faces a lot of problems. Poor nutrition, seasonal fodder shortages,
low quality pastures, low farm production, and inadequate extension services are on the
top of a list of factors that lead to lower farm profitability (A. Iqbal, et al., 2010). The
livestock management standards vary a lot with the size of herd, farmers level of
education, location, and especially with available resources. Farmers are very reluctant
to adopt improved technology. They practice improper traditional management
practices. Most of the livestock and livestock products are traded through marketing
systems that are informal and potentially exploitative (McDermott, et al., 2010). Poverty
and illiteracy rates are also very high amongst farmers. There is also a lack of national
improvement programs in these countries which are most often based on top-down
management strategies employed by governments. Smallholder farmers generally do
not pay serious attention to feeding, breeding and genetics, and animal welfare (Cain, et
al., 2007). Animals are usually restrained by tying, with stall feeding and little access to
water and fodder. There is a rare understanding of proper housing and management
17
system in smallholder farming. Farms are established without specific planning. Sheds
have been constructed improperly, with poor access to road, water supply, drainage, and
other basic requirements (Qureshi, 2008).
Smallholder livestock farming is a subsistence farming activity. In most developing
regions smallholder farming cannot satisfy household food requirements and basic
income demands. Waithka et al. (2006) reported that these systems were at risk in terms
of productivity as well as sustainability unless external resources were utilised more
effectively. It is clear that the future is uncertain and hard to predict but there are even
larger uncertainties in developing countries about the role of smallholder livestock
producers in future livestock development scenarios because of the rapid socio-
economic transformation globally (McDermott, et al., 2010).
In developing countries animal health is also an issue. McDermott et al, (2010) reported
a 20% mortality rate in calves and 10% or more in cows on an annual basis. Socially,
smallholder communities are economically depressed as they do not get the share in the
social benefits provided to urban dwellers (Qureshi, 2008). The farmers have very little
chance to send their children to better educational institutions which are very expensive
(Qureshi, 2008). These important issues are discussed in detail below.
2.4.2 Poor feeding practices
In most of developing countries, the adoption of improved grass and legume forages
into mixed crop-livestock farming systems has been slow, although adaptable forage
species and improved varieties are available in sufficient amount. The reason might be
that the farmers have either not been sufficiently exposed to forage options, or they may
not be convinced that improved forages provide significant benefits to their livestock
enterprises. The most neglected sector in small dairy farming in developing countries is
the proper feed and feeding of animals, even though it is known from research that
adequate and balanced feed is necessary to obtain maximum performance from an
animal (Afzal, 2010). Due to limited feed availability on farms, livestock of high
potential cannot fully express their production traits and this is the main reason of low
profitability (MJ Khan, Peters, & Uddin, 2012).
Smallholder farmers do not have knowledge to respond appropriately to the modern
practices especially in regard to feed and feeding. They just want to fill the rumens of
18
their livestock with little regards for feed quality (Francis & Sibanda, 2001). They have
always compromised on quality by focussing on the quantity of feed produced. Low
quality forages and roughages provide the large bulk of feed resources. More than 51%
of the nutrients requirements come from crop residues which are very poor in quality
and cannot satisfy the maintenance requirements of the animal (Sarwar, Khan, & Iqbal,
2002). Farmers usually cut grasses or forages in the latter stages of maturity or they let
their animals graze on similar pastures. Concentrates which are pivotal for high
productivity are fed only in small amounts. This limited use of concentrates most often
is due to high inputs cost and lack of awareness. Seasonal variation in feed availability
also affects milk production, resulting in large price fluctuations, especially in the dry
season when limited feed is available for livestock (McDermott, et al., 2010). No
satisfactory efforts have been made to date to develop feeding standards for indigenous
breeds in developing countries. Studies have shown that proper feeding along with
genetic improvement can lead to gains of 60% to 300% in milk productivity in livestock
(McDermott, et al., 2010).
2.4.3 Poor genetics
In developing countries animals of low genetic potential are predominate. Lack of
awareness amongst smallholders about breeding and genetics is one of the reasons of
poor genetics in developing countries. Random and haphazard cross breeding is a major
barrier to enhancing livestock dairy production and its sustainability. Indiscriminate
crossbreeding of indigenous breeds with exotic breeds without enough consideration of
environmental conditions for production is also a major issue in these countries
(Philipsson, Rege, & Okeyo, 2006). Farmers have no access to proven sires or progeny
tested bulls or their semen, and very limited access to naturally available bull and
artificial insemination (AI). The existing AI services are also not optimal to improve
local livestock systems because the semen comes from bulls that have not been properly
selected. The conception rate can be very low because of improper AI procedures and
reproductive diseases. Farmers typically dont have the cash reserves or access to loans
to enable them to buy a bull or more cows for breeding. Hence, they must build up their
herd independently and must buy the services of another farmers bull. However, this is
often difficult as farmers need to sell cattle to release cash for other household expenses.
In addition importation of low quality semen and its indiscriminate usage has caused
deterioration of indigenous breeds and most of them are now endangered (Statistical
19
Year Book India, 2002). In developing countries breeding programs, artificial
inseminations and strategies used to upgrade the animal population are most often not
successful, particularly when applied to small mixed farming system (Hussain, 2011).
2.4.4 Informal marketing
In most developing countries livestock markets are largely informal because producers
have very limited access to formal markets, due in part to their cost. A formal marketing
approach can probably be successful only in those locations where demand for milk is
high. In some developing countries cooperatives are being encouraged but cooperative
development has only partially met the challenge (McDermott, et al., 2010). About 80%
of livestock and livestock products are traded through informal markets where
producers sell their livestock products to low-income consumers at a very low price if
compared with price in formal markets (Afzal, 2010). Upgrading the capacity, practices,
and standards of informal market contributors is likely to improve the efficiency of
performance of formal chains. Smallholders have small quantities of products to sell,
which is why they are not in a position to negotiate a fair price for their products.
Consumer demand for healthy safe food is increasing with growing urbanization and
income which is making the livestock value chain longer, more complex and difficult
for the smallholder to contribute to formal markets (McDermott, et al., 2010).
2.4.5 Policies
In spite of the growing importance of the livestock sector, it is still largely neglected by
policy makers and researchers. Smallholder farming has not being progressed due to
unplanned and inappropriate policies developed on a national as well as an international
level. Herrero et al. (2010) reported that inefficient aid delivery, government corruption,
and political unrest are among key factors that form a barrier to livestock industry
development in developing countries. At the national level, agricultural extension
services are dominated by annual crops and livestock production has hardly been a
priority for them. It has been frequently reported that the relationship between
agricultural extension services and livestock ministries has always been complicated
and problematic (Matthewman & Morton, 1997). Not only is cropping dominant over
livestock enterprises counterpart there is another challenge within the livestock
department. Livestock ministries and departments are often dominated by the veterinary
and animal health services.
20
Most of the policies do not favour farmers at the grass roots level and price control over
livestock products is one key limitation. In most developing countries the cost of inputs
for smallholder farming relies on the free market place, whereas prices for commodities
are under the control of government agencies. Currently the high cost of inputs is a
major constraint faced by smallholders. This unbalanced government policy confines
smallholders to the whims of local markets. McDermott et al. (1999) reported that
smallholders cannot compete in larger and formal markets because of the adverse cost
price situation.
Complicated financing and banking systems is another source of hardship. Most of the
farmers have limited or no access to financial institutions, and even if they have, it is not
attractive to them as interest rates are very high. In real terms savings are negative due
to inflation (Moll, et al., 2007). Under these circumstances the most attractive option in
financing is maintaining livestock.
In developing countries extension services are most often rudimentary with little access
for farmers to the extension services. Although some countries have adequate extension
services, they do not provide effective extension. The top-down approach is being
practiced in most developing countries. Technologies are developed most often without
farmers participation, and therefore they are often irrelevant. This lack of fit is the main
reason for poor adoption rates by the farmers. In addition, the lack of awareness of new
livestock technologies, the lack of capital and high input prices combine to provide the
major constraints in the adoption of modern livestock practices (Idrees, Mahmood,
Shafi, & Sidique, 2007).
Extension agents play a vital role in transfer of technology but most of the extension
agents do not have practical skills and experience in the development and use of
extension material. They also have weak linkages with farmers. Moreover, extension
workers are expected to work with a large number of farmers with no transportation,
low salaries, and limited facilitation of appropriate extension material. Besides,
livestock extension has been marginalized by the pressure of the predominant crop-
based extension and animal health services (Matthewman & Morton, 1997).
21
There are many challenges for the well-being of smallholder farming systems but these
can be resolved through innovation and modernization of the farming system. The
current study will help the smallholder to cope with most of the issues: for example
poor feeding practices and low forage availability which are two of the most critical
issues in the system. Using the PIAT a range of strategies could be explored for
addressing these constraints by discussing with the farmer groups. The proposed model
could predict up to five year forages availability. A farmer should be able to predict the
quantity of forage available each month for at least the next 5 year. Based on this
forecasting the farmer could adopt a specific longer strategy which should include the
introduction of new improved varieties of fodder, planning for the fodder production
area, the flexibility to sell surplus fodder, and/or to conserve surplus forage to cope with
any drought period. The poor quality and quantity of concentrate feed ingredients and
their high price is an important constraint for the system. The fodder model could be
used as a tool to reduce the feed cost by using various types of locally available
concentrate feed ingredients and their impact on whole farm production.
A farmer would also be able to improve his or her herd genetics using the PIAT model.
The farmers can predict the impact of delayed puberty and long inter-calving interval on
farm productivity using such a model. Moreover they could also be able to assess the
impact on overall productivity and profitability of seasonal versus year around calving
pattern in the model. The model could help farmers to calculate their overall farm
budget using various commodities price options. The model could also be used as a
forecasting tool by the government agencies before implementing any policies affecting
farmers. The model would help to strengthen the extension services by assisting
extension workers with a tool to assess any of the advice they offer to farmers. It would
also assist in the building the farmers confidence in the advice offered from the
extension team as well as providing a way to optimise the utilization of local resource.
This way a confidence and trust will be developed between farmers and extension
workers.
2.5.1. Overview
Livestock production in Pakistan is similar to that in other developing countries which
will be discussed in here. In this section, specific aspects of livestock farming in
Pakistan will be discussed including the role of livestock in the Pakistan economy, the
22
role of smallholder dairy production, within the context of the Pakistani dairy industry,
dairy breeds and their characteristics, cropping land utilization and fodder and feed
management. The characteristics and standards for smallholder farming systems, and
fodder crop management which are more specific to support the industry and their role
of market chains in the Pakistani farming system will be explored. The characteristics of
this system were used as a benchmark for the PIAT modelling. Two dairy breeds Nili-
Ravi and Sahiwal have also been described in detail as their characterization has been
adopted for inclusion in the livestock model.
2.5.2. An introduction to dairy livestock sector in Pakistan
Livestock industries play a vital role in the economy of the country. These industries
contribute a significant share of agricultural gross domestic product by providing milk,
meat, eggs, skin, hides and bones (Idrees, et al., 2007). According to the economic
survey of Pakistan (2010), livestock contributed 11.4% to the overall GDP (gross
domestic production) and 53.2% to the agriculture sector. Pakistan is ranked 5 th
in the
world in milk production, producing 45 million tonnes of milk annually (Economic
Survey of Pakistan, 2010; R. Khan & Hye, 2010). The livestock sector is a major
contributor to the export sector and foreign exchange (Idrees, et al., 2007). Its net
exchange earnings were 12.3 percent of the overall export earnings in 2001-2002.
Studies showed that more than 8.4 million families raised cattle and buffalo for milk
production in the country (Afzal, 2010).
In Pakistan dairy livestock is a dominant farming practice in rural and peri-urban areas
and milk is the most important commodity for farmers (Rahman, et al., 2008). The
majority of the farms are integrated, with both crop farming and other livestock species
like buffaloes, cattle, and sometimes sheep or goats or both of them contributing farm
productivity. In Pakistan both buffaloes and cows are very popular dairy animals.
Buffalo is being more important on both small and large scale farming. More than 65%
of farmers raise buffaloes which represent 61% of the total milk produced in the country
(M. Khan, Ahmad, & Khan, 2007). Whereas, cattle contribute 34.5% of the total supply,
and the remaining contribution is from sheep, goats and camels. The males and dry
animals are used for work like pulling carts and other various agricultural operations.
The adult animals are normally slaughtered. More than 90% of the famers are
smallholders (Kenyanjui, Sheikh, & Ghaffar, 2011; R. Khan & R. Usmani, 2005).
23
Smallholder farming is very important in Pakistan. Presently, livestock provide a major
economic activity for small and landless farmers, tenants and sedentary, nomadic and
transhumance herders. Smallholder farming is often a subsistence activity in Pakistan
(R. Khan & R. Usmani, 2005). It however, provides 35-40% of the income to the
smallholder farmers, with each 20 litres of milk produced supporting single full time
wage (Afzal, 2010). Along with other developing countries, smallholder operations in
Pakistan consist of mixed crop-livestock farming. More than 94% of household are
smallholders raising less than five dairy animals on a small land holding (Afzal, 2010;
Zia, 2007). Reman et al. (2008) reported that the land holding size usually varies
amongst householders in a same village and also amongst agro-ecological zones ranging
from 0.25-5 ha with an average of 1.6 ha per household. Cash cropping is a predominant
farming practice in the country, about three-quarters of the area is used for growing
food and cash crops, and the remainder is used for fodder and forage production.
Smallholders feed their animals with low quality fodder and forages based mainly on
crops residues from their own land, private farmland, or communal grazing land. Wheat
straw is a common crop residue used by smallholders. Fodders or grasses are cut and
carried to stall fed animals which form the pre-dominant practice in Asia (Cain, et al.,
2007; McDermott, et al., 2010). Due to high input costs concentrate feeding is not a
common practice on smallholder farms. Family labour is the main source of labour;
women and children are responsible for both feeding and milking animals and cleaning
sheds. Males are responsible for animal treatment, and trading of animals and milk.
Some of the farmers also hired labours for land preparation and harvesting. Most of the
medium and large dairy farms are situated in peri-urban areas of the large cities to meet
the milk demand of the urban population. The marketing chain is dominated by the
informal private sector. Up to 95-97% of milk is marketed in the raw form through
informal channels consisting of milk producers, collectors, middlemen, processors,
traders, and consumers: this is common industry structure in developing countries
(Thorpe, et al., 2000; Zia, 2007). Consumers preferred fresh raw milk over processed
milk because of their unwillingness to pay the extra costs involved in processing and
packaging (Thorpe, et al., 2000). A survey has shown that farm-gate prices are 15%
higher and retail prices 25-50% lower in the raw milk market when compared with the
formal packed milk market (Staal et al., 1997). In addition to the price differences in
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different milk chains, prices also are dependent on the dairy animal species, as buffalo
milk sells at higher prices than cows milk. Some farmers also convert milk to value
addition products such as ghee, yogurts, and butter.
2.5.4. Characteristics of smallholder farming system
Smallholder farming systems are almost the same as in other developing countries, a
situation that has already discussed in section 2.2. The key features of smallholder
farming systems have been discussed here in relation to Pakistani smallholder dairy
systems which are used for benchmarking in the PIAT model development. Before
developing any model, it is necessary to understand the complexity of smallholder
livestock farming and its integration within the ecosystem (i.e. land, crops, and fodder).
The characteristics of two dairy breeds have also been described here in detail to form
the basis for the livestock model in the PIAT. Feeding management and various feed
sources used by smallholders have also been discussed previously. The fodder types
grown by farmers in Pakistan, crop residues, and concentrates available for livestock are
described here and are incorporated into the model. The local family structure and
labour profile will be described. This information will be incorporated into the model
later on.
2.5.4.1. Dairy breeds in Pakistan
Although there are some strains of exotic breeds in Pakistan, most smallholders raise
local dairy breeds consisting of buffaloes and cattle. The reason for raising local or
indigenous breeds is their adaptability to the local harsh humid and hot environment.
Moreover, they display more innate resistance to ticks and disease; they also convert
low quality forages more efficiently into milk. Two dairy breeds are very common in
Pakistan, the Nili-Ravi (buffalo) and Sahiwal (dairy cow). Crossbred cattle are also
kept on farms.
In this section some characteristics of locally available buffaloes and cows will be
described. Based on these characteristics and performance traits the livestock model for
the PIAT will be developed. A detailed description of these traits can be found in the
attached tables Performance traits of dairy animals in Pakistan attached as Appendix-I.
See below for the breed description.
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2.5.4.2. The productivity of buffalo
Pakistan is ranked second in the world for buffalo population and buffalo milk
production. More than 60% of farmers keep buffaloes as a dairy animal. There are two
buffalo breeds in Pakistan the Nili Ravi and Kundi which are considered as the best
breeds in the world (Younas & Yaqoob, 2005). They are known as “Black gold” (Bilal,
Suleman, & Raziq, 2006; Javed, Babar, Shafiq, & Ali, 2009). Large numbers of
buffaloes are found in the canal fed areas of the country, where abundant fodder supply
and crop by-products are available. The buffalo is the most valuable animal and is more
highly valued by the people of the sub-continent than cows milk (Bilal, et al., 2006)
because of higher SNF and butter fat content; therefore, the demand for buffalo milk is
ever-increasing.
Nili-Ravi is the highest producing buffalo in the country. The specific characteristics of
the breed include a massive body with a wedge shape and black coloured coat but often
with white markings on the muzzle, lower parts of the legs, forehead and switch of the
tail. Lactation yield ranges from 1400-3500 litres with an average age of 2400 litres
(Javed, et al., 2009); however, they can also capable of producing milk within a range of
3000-5000 litres (Bilal, et al., 2006; Javed, Mohiuddin, & Abdullah, 2000) if animals
are fed to requirement. According to Bilal et al. (Bilal, et al., 2006)daily yield can be as
low as 2-2.5 kg in a poor village animal and as high as 20 kg on a well managed farm.
Age at 1 st calving is very high in buffalo ranging 43-55 months (Qureshi et al., 2008;
Suhail, Qureshi, Khan, & Saleem, 2009). Afzal et al. (2007) observed an average of 45
months at 1 st calving and service period of 166 days. According to these workers overall
lactation length was 273 days. The average calving interval in buffaloes is 18 months
which is very high (Suhail, et al., 2009). Although buffaloes are the good milk
producing dairy animals, they have some issues like silent heat and a low conception
rate while the feed requirement is high. A reasonable number of the buffalo fail to
conceive due to observations of silent heat (Bilal, et al., 2006). Moreover, the buffalo
comes on heat mostly in the hot summer season when the animal is already under stress
from high ambient temperature. They are more sensitive to the heat than the indigenous
cattle of the country due to their black body coat.
Thus a buffalo is different from a cow in term of production and breeding efficiency and
that is why the buffalo will be incorporated as a separate species in the model. In
addition, its higher growth rate and high mature body weight also make it different from
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a cow. Some more production parameters of Nili-Ravi buffalo which will be
incorporated into the model are shown in tables attached as Appendix-I.
2.5.4.3. Cattle production
Cows are also as important as buffaloes for milk production. They have a more
sustainable role in milk provision when buffalo milk is less available especially during
the summer season (Fig 2.1). Overall, cows contribute more than 33% of the total milk
produced in the country, in addition to acting as draft animals. All the indigenous cattle
of Pakistan belong to the Bos indicus genus which is also called humped cattle. The
cattle population in the country consists of purebreds, non-descript and crossbred
animals. There are 15 recognized breeds of cattle in the country (Qureshi, et al., 2008).
Out of these Red-Sindhi and Sahiwal are well known tropical breeds. Both are being
used in crossbreeding to yield new breeds mostly associated with the Holstein Friesian.
The Sahiwal is more popular than the Red-Sindhi because of their superior milk
production and reproduction performance. This breed is internationally recognized. A
recent FAO report indicated that Sahiwal had been exported to more than 12 different
countries in the world (FAO, 2007) including Australia.
The Sahiwal breed has a higher potential for milk production, growth and reproductive
efficiency when compared with other cattle breeds in Pakistan (Ilatsia, Muasya,
Muhuyi, & Kahi, 2007). Daily milk yield ranges from 5-8 litres with peak yield of 13
litres (McGill & Wynn, 2011). Total lactation yield range from 1300-2400 litres with an
average of 1800 litres (Ilatsia, et al., 2007). Mean lactation length is 266 days (S.
Rehman, Ahmad, & Shafiq, 2006). Their calving interval is long averaging 440 days
whereas the service period varies from 150-186 days (Zafar, Ahmad, & Rehman, 2008).
Age at 1 st calving is also high ranging 45-50 months. Other production parameters of
the Sahiwal breed that has been used in the model are given in tables attached as
Appendix-I.
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Figure 2.1 Calving pattern in Sahiwal, Sahiwal-Friesian crossbreds and Nili-Ravi
buffaloes
2.5.4.4. Feed and feeding management
In Pakistan, the nutritional requirements of animals are mainly met through fodder
crops, shrubs, grasses and agro-industrial wastes (Sarwar, et al., 2002). Smallholder
dairy farmers usually stall-feed their animals but some farmers also graze their animals.
They feed livestock with seasonal fodder, crop residues commonly wheat straw which is
usually mixed with wheat bran, and some concentrate. Different sources of feed supply
are shown in table 2.1. The crop residue is a major source of feed in the dry season
which provides 51 % of total nutrients required for livestock in combination with fodder
(Sarwar, et al., 2002). These include wheat straw, rice straw, barley straw, gram straw,
stovers, and sugar cane tops. Concentrates fed by farmers include cereal grains (wheat,
maize, barley, oats, sorghum, rice), wheat bran, rice polishing, molasses, sugar beet
pulp, oilseed cakes (cotton seed, mustard seed, maize oil, sunflower, sesame oil), seed
meals (cottonseed, soybean, guar, maize gluten meal), blood meal, fish meal, meat meal
28
and feather meal. These concentrates are high in energy and protein, low in fibres, and
also high in digestible nutrients. Various crop residues and concentrate proximate
analysis have been given in table 2.2.
The poor quality of crop residues can be resolved by increasing the quantity of available
concentrates in mixed rations. However, smallholders cannot afford to feed livestock
with required amounts of concentrates because they are very expensive. The current
model development is an attempt to optimise their usage to increase farm productivity
and profitability by selecting various options for the use of competitively priced locally
available concentrates.
Feed Resource Share in total feed availability
(%)
Cereal by-products 6
Oil cakes 2
(Sources: Crowder, 1988; S. Hanjra, David, & Akhtar, 1995; Sarwar, et al., 2002)
29
Feed type DM
Hay
Dry Roughages
Cotton seed hulls 87.6 5.7 1.5 45.8 4.0 35.5 46.8
Sugar cane bagasse 90.5 1.7 0.7 50.3 5.0 42.4 44.3
Sugar beet pulp wet 9.8 9.1 1.1 25.4 - 59.3 -
Sugar beet pulp dry 91.8 9.4 1.1 23.8 - 60.4