the developmental testbed center (dtc) steve koch, noaa/fsl
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The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)The Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)Steve Koch, NOAA/FSLSteve Koch, NOAA/FSL
A facility where the NWP research and operational communities A facility where the NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and
techniques for research applications and operational techniques for research applications and operational implementation, without interfering with current operations implementation, without interfering with current operations
Unidata presentation
7 February 2005
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DTC Accomplishments since April 2003
Strong working relationship between central DTC partners (FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA
Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and NCAR Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores)
Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the NMM to iJet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP, & AFWA computers) for use in the Test Plan work
SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL effort)
Visiting scientist program initiated in summer 2004
Completed WRF Test Plan: WRF EM core implemented at EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability
Strong working relationship between central DTC partners (FSL and NCAR), NCEP, and AFWA
Completed the basic WRF Reference Code (including NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and NCAR Advanced Research WRF (ARW) dynamic cores)
Ported NCEP Post and Verification codes and the NMM to iJet (also transferred to NCAR, NCEP, & AFWA computers) for use in the Test Plan work
SI able to initialize NMM WRF (joint EMC/FSL effort)
Visiting scientist program initiated in summer 2004
Completed WRF Test Plan: WRF EM core implemented at EMC as part of Initial Operating Capability
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DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the candidate dynamical cores to qualify them for a 6-member WRF IOC ensemble system to run daily in High Resolution Window (HRW) domains:
= NCEP NMM + NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores + NMM and ARW cores with switched physics packages+ Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary Conditions
Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single deterministic forecast and a measure of uncertainty
IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2 members (the two dynamical cores without physics swapping). Full 6-member ensemble is scheduled for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.
DTC demonstrated the capabilities of the candidate dynamical cores to qualify them for a 6-member WRF IOC ensemble system to run daily in High Resolution Window (HRW) domains:
= NCEP NMM + NCAR ARW dynamical WRF cores + NMM and ARW cores with switched physics packages+ Model variants using bred Initial / Boundary Conditions
Ensemble should improve accuracy over a single deterministic forecast and a measure of uncertainty
IOC implemented 21 Sept 2004, but with only 2 members (the two dynamical cores without physics swapping). Full 6-member ensemble is scheduled for May 2005 implementation at NCEP.
WRF Test Plan: Getting to the NCEP IOC
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Two primary operational objectives:
1. Compare Eta-12 to WRF run at 5 km grid spacing with explicit convection (no CP scheme) over CONUS during a winter season
2. Expose forecasters to future WRF capabilities before WR-NAM
Two primary research objectives:1. Do encouraging 4-km BAMEX WRF runs (summer 03, 04)
provide forecast value during winter and for longer lead times (~48h) than in BAMEX?
2. Determine extent to which gravity waves, lake-effect snow, CAD, coastal fronts, etc. can be skillfully forecast
DWFE Core Objectives
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DWFE WRF Model DomainDWFE WRF Model Domain
DWFE domain covers the Gulf of Mexico, Canadian cold air source, Gulf Stream, and upstream conditions
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FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of WRF:2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM & ARW)2 different Physics Packages (NCEP & NCAR)
Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme)
Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution
Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48 hours
Initial and boundary conditions from operational Eta:00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runsThese grids have a resolution of 40 km
FSL and NCAR are running 2 different versions of WRF:2 different Dynamical Cores (NMM & ARW)2 different Physics Packages (NCEP & NCAR)
Explicit Convection (run without CP scheme)
Uses 38 levels, 5-km resolution
Initialized at 0000 UTC, forecasts out to 48 hours
Initial and boundary conditions from operational Eta:00 UTC Eta212 grids for both runsThese grids have a resolution of 40 km
DWFE WRF Model Configuration
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WRF is designed so that model configurations can be interchanged easily
WRF makes it easy to:
create new model componentsshare parameterizationsefficiently transfer research findings to operations
WRF is designed so that model configurations can be interchanged easily
WRF makes it easy to:
create new model componentsshare parameterizationsefficiently transfer research findings to operations
KF CP
Grell
BMJ
Explicit
NMM core
EM core
NCEP mixed
Kessler MP
Purdue-Lin
Ferrier MP
Etc…
PBL, etc
WRF is a modeling systemsystem, not a model
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Run 1: ARW, NCAR Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
WSM 5-class microphysics No cumulus parameterization
Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL Dudhia shortwave
RRTM longwave
Run 2: WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta) No cumulus parameterization
Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta) Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave)
Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)
Run 1: ARW, NCAR Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
WSM 5-class microphysics No cumulus parameterization
Yong-Sei University (YSU) PBL Dudhia shortwave
RRTM longwave
Run 2: WRF-NMM, NCEP Physics Suite NOAH 5-layer land-surface model (LSM)
Ferrier microphysics (as in Eta) No cumulus parameterization
Mellor-Yamada-Janjic 2.5 PBL (as in Eta) Eta (Lacis-Hansen shortwave)
Eta (Fels-Schwartzkopf longwave)
DWFE WRF Model Physics Suites
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FX-Net and AWIPS (by 1400 UTC)
offers diagnostic flexibility and ability
to see full details
FX-Net and AWIPS (by 1400 UTC)
offers diagnostic flexibility and ability
to see full details
DTC web site (and to JOSS):DTC web site (and to JOSS):
DWFE Dissemination of Model Products
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An Operational Introduction to the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Modeling
System
Gary Lackmann, NCSUWith contributions from
Michael Brennan, Stephen Jascourt, Steve Koch,
Jeff Waldstreicher, Kelly Mahoney, David Novak,
Wei Wang, WRF Tutorial Class & others 1
RFC 10-km analysis
5-km WRF explicit
5-km WRF BMJ
NWS-NCSU CSTAR VISITVIEW PRESENTATION
Forecaster Preparation for the DWFE
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(1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool: produced using the FSL Real-Time Verification System (RTVS), this verification tool takes model forecast values and interpolates them to hourly HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided for whatever models, forecast period, and overall time period one chooses.
(2) VSDB web tool: forecast values are compared with surface and upper-air rawinsonde observations that are gathered by NCEP for performing their next model analysis. Statistics will also be available for Grid-to-Grid precipitation.
(3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation tool: an entity-based approach, which decomposes the total forecast error into such components as displacement, volume, and pattern error of Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by FSL to verification of mesoscale convective systems in IHOP.
(1) Grid-to-Point precipitation tool: produced using the FSL Real-Time Verification System (RTVS), this verification tool takes model forecast values and interpolates them to hourly HADS gauge locations. Statistics are provided for whatever models, forecast period, and overall time period one chooses.
(2) VSDB web tool: forecast values are compared with surface and upper-air rawinsonde observations that are gathered by NCEP for performing their next model analysis. Statistics will also be available for Grid-to-Grid precipitation.
(3) Ebert-McBride Grid-to-Grid precipitation tool: an entity-based approach, which decomposes the total forecast error into such components as displacement, volume, and pattern error of Contiguous Rain Areas. Technique was applied by FSL to verification of mesoscale convective systems in IHOP.
On this page will be links to these verification tools:
DWFE Verification Activities
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RTVS precipitation verification of 6-h forecasts over the
entire DWFE domain
10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
RTVS precipitation verification of 6-h forecasts over the
entire DWFE domain
10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
Eta-12
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/index.html
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Eta-12
WRF-NMM
WRF-ARW
http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/rtvs/wrf/DWFE/station/index.html
RTVS precipitation verification of 24-h forecasts over the
entire DWFE domain
10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
RTVS precipitation verification of 24-h forecasts over the
entire DWFE domain
10 Jan - 2 Feb 2005
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DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System
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DWFE uses the NCEP Verification System
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We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from both the ARW and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full model resolution on a daily basis for use in future research studies.
We are archiving two types of output files for each model:1) wrfout files
NETCDF formatRaw model output on its native grid
2) post-processed files (meso.AWPDWFE)GRIB formatModel fields run through NCEP post processorPost processor interpolates raw output to constant pressure surfaces and then to a common horizontal grid
We are archiving the 3-hourly output files from both the ARW and NMM runs on the NCAR MSS at full model resolution on a daily basis for use in future research studies.
We are archiving two types of output files for each model:1) wrfout files
NETCDF formatRaw model output on its native grid
2) post-processed files (meso.AWPDWFE)GRIB formatModel fields run through NCEP post processorPost processor interpolates raw output to constant pressure surfaces and then to a common horizontal grid
Archival of DWFE Model Runs
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Examples of Phenomena Forecast by DWFE WRF
Models
FSL is also making available on its FX-Net system the ability to display the 8-10 km High-Resolution Window (HRW) domain WRF model runs from NCEP
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Lake Effect Snowbands:17 January 2005
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KBUF 1835Z Base Reflectivity WRF-ARW 18h Forecast
Precipitation for 1800 UTC
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1000-850 hPa Lapse RatesForecast by NMM at 1200 UTC
WRF-NMM 18h ForecastPrecipitation for 1800 UTC
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Narrow Reflectivity Bands:23 January 2005
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0600 UTC Radar Mosaic
ARW 3-h forecast Composite Reflectivity
Lake-effect snowbands
Lake-effect snowbands
Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband
Narrow Cold-Frontal Rainband
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Topographically forced Snowbands in Blizzard of
23 January 2005
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Total Snow Accumulation
Hudson Valley CT River Valley
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WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F24
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WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F27
988
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WRF-ARW 00Z 22Jan05 F30
982
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STMAS 5-km Surface Mesoanalysis for 0300 UTC
995
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Curiosities:Potential Vorticity
Streamers Downwind of Mountain Peaks
2 February 2005
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700 hPa Vertical Vorticity from 12h WRF-NMM Forecast
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Curiosities:Reflectivity Structures in
Marine Boundary Layer23 January 2005
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Cloud Streets
Mesoscale Cellular Convection
Marine Stratus
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Curiosities:Diabatically-generated
Mesovortex over Lake Erie22 January 2005
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STMAS Analysis for 1900 UTC 22Jan05
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ARW-5 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05
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Eta-12 18h Forecast for 1800 UTC 22Jan05
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Concluding Statements
The DTC is producing a very large set of valuable and accessible high-resolution model data for numerical modeling and
mesoscale process research studies.
The DTC is creating a unique and powerful infrastructure for the research community to participate in the testing
and evaluation of contributed model codes with the potential to lead to future
operational improvements.