the dirty new world (summer 2013 version)

It’s a Dirty New WorldBranching out from the digital domain

Patrick Kalaher, Chief Architect

MARCH 2013

Thursday, March 21, 13

A provocation on what needs to happen next in connected devices and technologies


March 20, 2013Dirty New World

The Old Rules

Since the mid-90s, we’ve been living in a clean, relatively simple digital world

3



The Old Rules

I’m going to argue that this is all abruptly changing

4



The Old Rules

And what got us here won’t get us where we want to go now

5



The Old Rules

Four laws we’ve been obeying:

Moore’s Law

Nielson’s Law

Metcalfe’s Law

Godwin’s Law

6



The Old Rules

Moore’s Law

7



The Old Rules

8

Foreshadowing



The Old Rules

Nielsen’s Law

9

http://www.js1.ca/


http://www.js1.ca/

http://www.js1.ca/


The Old Rules

Metcalfe’s Law

Value of a telecom network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users.

10



The Old Rules

Metcalfe’s Law

We intuit this whenwe think ofNetwork Effects

11



The Old Rules

Godwin’s Law

"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."

12


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Party

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limit_(mathematics)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limit_(mathematics)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almost_surely


The Old Rules

Godwin’s Law

First we made net culture, then it re-made us.

For Lulz.

13



The Old Rules

The Onion Reports: 90% Of Waking Hours Spent Staring At Glowing Rectangles

14



The Old Rules

15



The Old Rules

These laws are still out there, but they aren’t the dominant factors, because we are now headed to...

16



The Old Rules

17

The Dirty New World


What is the Dirty New World?


A place with new rules and limitations and ways to succeed



New Rules

It’s dirty out there

Device design is breaking long-held rules

Mobile networks are glitchy

The IoT (and the II) is messy and complicated, and failure can be expensive

Pervasive computing is starting to offend people

Connected device scenarios are hard work

Emergent behavior has real-world consequences

20



New Rules

Mobile compute isn’t scarce anymore, mobile energy efficiency is

Do you even know the processor speed on your device? Do you even care?

21



New Rules

22

“Koomey’s Law”

Recent research led by Jonathan Koomey of Stanford University has found that energy efficiency of compu<ng doubles every 18 months, enabling energy constrained devices to become “smarter”.

How?

Con<nually improving baDery technology + custom ASICS, Cores and SOCs on smartphones, tablets and other Internet of Things devices, along with “Strategic Rulebreaking” and differen<ated manufacturing

Impact

There is no standard “Smartphone” or tablet architecture

Lots of Fragmenta<on

Commodity doesn’t cut it

“Nimitz class” Manufacturing Ouroboros Value Chain Playing catch up



New Rules

Takeaway: Engineering what’s inside the box is more important than ever

23



New Rules

We mostly have plenty of bandwidth, but the reliability, availability, and throughput of mobile and IoT systems are still unsolved problems

24



New Rules

Dropped calls are here to stay

25

(In 2008 = 5.6% reported at least onedropped call per day)



New Rules

26

http://worstphoneever.com/






New Rules

Takeaway: Some solvable problems don’t get solved

27



New Rules

Case in point:

Home Energy Management

28



New Rules

The Personal Area Network is not really taking off

29

(Wifi in Healthcare: $4.9B, iTunes: $17B)



New Rules

30

Sensors still too expensive and scarce

The utilities’ hearts are really not in it

The cost savings carrot is not there for customers

There’s a limit to how much this can cost

SHN ZBHT-1 Retails for 69.99

“Smart Grid Woes Move to Illinois, ComEd”“All told, ComEd may have to pay back $48 million to its 3.8 million customers (about $12 per customer), and the decision could cost parent company Exelon about $77 million per year in revenue losses, not to mention $85 million in its current rate increase request.” -Reuters, Oct 2010

15% of 5% =0.75%

$940



New Rules

31

“The number of PhDs required to install a WSN rounds off to a non-zero integer”--Mary Murphy-Hoye, Intel

Zigbee Smart Energy 2.0 has been in development since before the iPhone.



New Rules

Takeaway: Home Energy Management is a great object lesson for the Industrial Internet

32



New Rules

Pervasive systems

33



New Rules

Pervasive systems creep people out, because they are... pervasive

34



New Rules

Stopthecyborgs.com“Spying is not a business model”

35

Not wearingGoogle Glassbut still pretty upset about it



The New Rules

36

“Class, please Turn off your pens”



New Rules

Takeaway: Customer demand for Industrial Internet and pervasive computing data sharing is not the whole story

37



New Rules

The most interesting connected device scenarios require a lot of business diligence and new skills

38



New Rules

39

Connected device implementations can’t do everything on day one

Big Data can only drive use cases that a set of connected devices are ready to handle

As systems grow and mature, the data they create and consume changes and becomes richer

frog’s Connected Device Maturity ModelSource: frog

Unconnected

Legacy Connected

Adapt

Connect

Maintain Understand Optimize Innovate

•  Report •  Analyze •  Enterprise

Connect •  Cloud

Connect •  Aggregate •  Understand

Context

•  Connect •  Identify •  Secure •  Meter

•  Audit •  Inspect •  Diagnose •  Repair •  Upgrade

•  Safe Share •  Longitudinal

Analysis •  Simulate •  Improve

Processes •  Closed Loop

Re-configure

•  Dynamically Adapt

•  Predict Capabilities

Time

Maturity / Complexity



New Rules

40

Big Data for connected devices doesn’t just happen; it has to evolve

CONNECTED REACTIVE PREDICTIVEConnecting disparate

technologiesContextualizing awareness through sensor networks

Predicting behavior and leveraging awareness

Value

Number of Devices

Metcalfe?



The New Rules

Lots of things might not be worth it

41

Market'Sizing'

Combining'the'ATM,'digital'signage'and'POS'system'management'solu<on'markets'will'

only'sum'to'an'es<mated'half'a'billion'USD'in'2011'

ATM,'4.0'

POS,'321.9'

Digital'Signage,'

2.7'

US#Simple#Systems#Management#So1ware#Market#in#2011#(USD#Millions)#

Upshot:'the'embedded'systems'management'tool'market'place'is'not'compelling'

in'and'of'itself.''It'needs'“revenue'drag”'or'“aPach'revenue”'opportuni<es,'or'for'

the'major'management'tool'providers,'it'provides'a'defense'against'losing'

contracts'on'wider'IT'management'



The New Rules

Doing M2M right requires fortitude

42

Agheera Pulsehttp://vimeo.com/41481380

High Value Items

Embracing disruption of systems and methods

Willingness to be transparent

Much more than Software


http://vimeo.com/41481380



The New Rules

Oops

43

“We are extremely sorry for the frustration this has caused our customers and we are doing everything we can to make Maps better.”

-Tim



The New Rules

Driving every street is a big bet

44

But you might just have to do it.



New Rules

Takeaway: Some things that seem like good ideas aren’t worth pursuing, and others require novel efforts

(You must disrupt)

45



The New Rules

Emergent behaviors have unintended real-world consequences

46



New Rules

47

You have to “think outside the kitchen”

“Brad the Toaster” is design fiction that outlines a scenario where a self-directed appliance is able to find places and owners that will best use him, and then ship himself there.

The story of Brad the Toaster, by frog’s Simone Rebaudengo:<http://vimeo.com/41363473







New Rules

48

New kinds of stories will be told

“The Brave Little Toaster” is a short story about a renegade pack of energy drink, and havoc it wreaks before the Brave Toaster is able to, um, deal with it.

Source: Cory Doctorow<http://craphound.com/?p=3704>

From: The Brave Little Toaster by Cory Doctorow

One day, Mister Toussaint came home to find an extra 300 euros' worth of groceries on his

doorstep. So he called up Miz Rousseau, the grocer, and said, "Why have you sent me all this

food? My fridge is already full of delicious things. I don't need this stuff and besides, I can't pay

for it."

But Miz Rousseau told him that he had ordered the food. His refrigerator had sent in the list,

and she had the signed order to prove it.

Furious, Mister Toussaint confronted his refrigerator. It was mysteriously empty, even though it

had been full that morning. Or rather, it was *almost* empty: there was a single pouch of energy

drink sitting on a shelf in the back. He'd gotten it from an enthusiastically smiling young

woman on the metro platform the day before. She'd been giving them to everyone.

"Why did you throw away all my food?" he demanded. The refrigerator hummed smugly at him.

"It was spoiled," it said.


http://craphound.com/?p=3704





It’s Dirty

It’s dirty out there.

Device design is breaking long-held rules

Mobile networks are glitchy

The IoT is messy and complicated, and failure can be expensive

Pervasive computing is starting to offend people

Connected device scenarios arehard work

Emergent behavior has unintended real-worldconsequences

49


But we’re already adapting



It’s Dirty

In the Dirty New World, design thinking is more important than ever

Conduct participatory design

Prototype!

Test early and often with customers

Show some demand and viability

Demonstrate ability to scale

51


the dirty new world (summer 2013 version)

Design