… a d its i pact on the Real Estate

Industry

Rutt Bridges

How Real are Driverless Cars?

• Seven years of Google research and testing

• 1.7 million miles with 11 fender-benders and no injuries

• From open highways to congested suburbs and cities

• Many other companies, from Apple to Mercedes, are developing driverless cars

• Google’s goal is o er ial a aila ility y 2020

The New Google Car Prototype

Google’s Strategy: Sell Mo ility, Not Metal

• Mobility can be delivered for 39¢/mile solo, 19¢/mile

per passenger with 2 people ridesharing

• A d that’s at a 48.5% pre-tax profit (29¢/14¢ at 25%)

• Dispatch software manages ridesharing arrangements

• All passengers must be registered (photo & voiceprint)

Mo ility’s Value Propositio

• Safe, efficient transportation that saves you thousands/year

• Low-stress door-to-door service while you work, read, relax

• Less congestion, less pollution, faster commutes, with no

parking or car ownership hassles

• Arrive at work or at home stress-free

How Driverless Cars Navigate in Traffic

Will Driverless Cars find a Market?

History insists that when a technology has obvious utility and is economically compelling, it will

be used.

Car Ownership versus Mobility Service

Are Driverless Cars Safe?

• We lost 426,129 to combat in all 20th Century wars

• We lost 531,886 to auto crashes in the first 14 years of this century

• 93% of accidents are due to distraction, drowsiness, drunkenness, or driver error

• Dri erless ars do ’t suffer fro those pro le s

Mo ility’s Market Seg e ts

• Early Adopters: Millennials, seniors, disabled, low income, alcohol-impaired

• Early Majority: Commuters, kids, businesses (fleets, employees, environmental sustainability)

• Late Majority: The skeptics

• Never: People who truly love their cars

Winners and Losers

• The Winners: The public (savings, free time and safety),

government (road expansions), environment (cleaner air,

greener downtowns), downtown developers, seniors,

disa led, …

• The Losers: The auto industry, oil industry, insurers, taxi

drivers, car rental, auto repair, personal injury attorneys,

parki g lot o ers, e erge y edi al ser i es, …

The Impact on Mass Transit

• In Denver, RTD riders pay about 23% of the cost, taxes and

grants pay 77%

• Can a $2.60 local bus fare compete with 19¢/mile mobility?

- door-to-door, 24/7 on demand service, zero emissions

- pay by the mile, no big empty buses crowding the roads

• Could Light Rail become our $6 billion stranded asset?

How Would Free Rail Impact Economic Growth?

Supercharge Light Rail: Double Ridership

• Exit most bus service routes, saving $288M/year in subsidies

• Eliminate Light Rail fares on all 158 miles of track ($140M/year)

• Increase railcars by 50% to accommodate doubling of rush-hour riders

- 303 Siemens S200 vehicles @ $3.7M, 20 years @ 5% interest = $89M/year)

• Added cost of servicing additional passengers and railcars ($44M/year)

• Total cost to provide free rides to 268,000 commuters: $273M

Public-Private Partnership to Feed Light Rail

• GM’s Che y EN-V (electric, 25 mph)

• Two person urban mobility vehicle

• Not driverless, but could be in the future

• Currently being deployed for field trials in Shanghai

Public-Private Partnership to Feed Light Rail

• Feed riders within a 5 mile radius into stations

• Close coordination between RTD and mobility providers

• Average fare per person: 3 miles at 14¢/mile = 42¢

• Use Free MallRide in Denver, urban vehicles elsewhere

• Double ridership, maximize return on sunk cost of rails

How Would Free Rail Impact Economic Growth?

Real Estate Consequences of Free Light Rail

• FreeRail would attract more corporate headquarters

• Far larger development radius around rail stations

• Easy free access means residents range further away for evenings out

• Strip malls are OK, but a vibrant downtown is better

• Drinking and driving is less of an issue

Needed Infrastructure for Mobility Services

• One or two central maintenance and repair facilities

• Commercial and residential pickup / drop off lanes

• Redevelopment of Light Rail stations: efficient pickup /

drop off lanes

• Approximately one Rapid Charging Facility for every

1,200 vehicles

Driverless Car Rapid Charging Facility

Mo ility’s I pa t o Real Estate

• Reduction of commercial/residential parking ratios

• Redevelopment of commercial and residential for pickup and drop off lanes

• Downtown parking lots available for redevelopment

• Some urban parking lanes becoming sidewalk cafés

• Less highway expansion, but more money for repairs

Mo ility’s I pa t o Real Estate

• Residential parking garages: storage units?

• Home garages: nursery, spare bedroom, home office

• Mall parking lots become retail and restaurant

development opportunities

• Is there a solution for I-70 congestion? Use of feeder

vehicles, driverless 10 passenger buses, and platooning

What is Platooning?