The Doha Development Agenda

Why is it taking so long?RIETI

BBL Seminar – 19 November 2008

Tokyo

Johann HumanDirector: Rules Division

WTO Secretariat

DDAHistory:Uruguay Round

Built-in AgendaAgricultureServices

Seattle Ministerial - 1999Doha - Nov 2001

DDACancun - September 2003Hong Kong - December 2005

July 2006, Potsdam, July 2008December 2008?

DDA

Uruguay Round versus DDA:

UR: Target was 4 yearsSeptember 1986 - December 1993

DDA: Target was 4 yearsNovember 2001 - ?

DDA

Deadlines:

Why set deadlines?

US Trade Negotiating Authority

Effect of missing deadlines

DDA - Factors

Timing after implementation of UR

Political factor: post- 11 September 2001

Support by major players for a new round

Position of small players post-URImplementation issues – difficult issues deferred

Interest of industry

DDA - Factors“Member-driven organization”

Role of DGLength of appointmentRole of DDGs - length of appointment

Role of Secretariat

“Rules-based system”Legalism vs pragmatismLawyers involved in process from start

Role of Chairpersons of NGs

DDA FactorsRole of informal groups

URQuad De la Paix GroupCafé OleOthers/Facilitators?

DDAG-20G-11ACPAfrican GroupCairnsOthers

DDA Factors

Role of informal groupsPrimarily political groupingsTrade interests of members of Groups vary substantially and across issuesAbsence of a “Quad” approach

DDA - FactorsConsensus ruleNothing is agreed until everything is agreedToo many negotiators?

UR - 96 CPs in 1986121 CPs in 1995128 participants

DDA - 153 MembersJuly 2008 “experiment”

36 Ministers in Green RoomReduce to Group of 7 MinistersIssues of inclusiveness and transparency

DDA FactorsNature of tariff negotiations:

Before UR – request/offer process

UR – 1988 Montreal Ministerial agreed on basic formula cut(Swiss formula)

Exceptions negotiated later

DDA – modalitiesExceptions negotiated as part of the modalitiesDraft NAMA Modalities Document of 110 pages

DDA - Factors

Super specialization of negotiators

Geneva dynamics

DDA

So where does all this lead us to?

Nature of future Rounds?Ongoing negotiations all the time?Structure of negotiations?

Trade Remedies

Current situation

Trade Remedies

Anti – Dumping

Countervailing Measures

Safeguards

ANTI-DUMPINGNUMBER OF MEASURES1995 – 2007

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total: 2 052

ANTI-DUMPINGMEASURES BY IMPORTING COUNTRY1995 – June 2008

3

72 78 81 88108 113 124

165

245 252

372

Japan

Australi

aBraz

ilMexicoCanada

China

Turkey

South Afric

aArgentin

a US EU

India

Total: 2 106

ANTI-DUMPINGMEASURES BY EXPORTING COUNTRY 1995 – June 2008

73 77 81 82 88105 112 118

146

441

Brazil Indonesia India Thailand Russia Japan US ChineseTaipei

Korea China

Total: 2 106

ANTI-DUMPINGINITIATIONS BY SECTOR 1995 – June 2008

I II III IV V

Chem

icals

Plasti

csVI

II IXPa

per

Tex/C

loth

XII

Cemen

t/Glas

sXIV

Metals

Mach/

Elect

XVII

XVIII

XIX XX

Total: 3 305

ANTI-DUMPINGMEASURES 1995 − June 2008Developed / Developing Members

Developed Members' Measures Developing Members' Measures

TOTAL MEASURES: 2 106

Developing68%

Developed32%

Developing80%

Developing75%

Developed25%

Developed20%

Total 682

Total 1 424Whose exports are affected and who imposed the measures?

COUNTERVAILINGMEASURES BY YEAR 1995 – 2007

43

4

8

6

1414

19

14

6

3

5

19

2007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Total: 119

21

COUNTERVAILINGMEASURES BY IMPORTING MEMBER1995 – June 2008

50

23

1286444322111

USEC

Cana

da

Mexico

Brazil

Argenti

na

New Zea

land

South

Afri

caPeru

Austral

ia

Chile

Costa

Rica

Japan

Venez

uela

Total: 121

22

COUNTERVAILINGMEASURES: EXPORTING MEMBER 1995 – June 2008

33

26

9885443333

0

EC

India

Korea

Brazil

Indone

sia

China

Argenti

na

South A

frica

Canad

a

Malaysi

a

Thailan

d

Venezu

ela

Japan

Total: 121

23

COUNTERVAILINGMEASURES BY SECTOR1995 – June 2008

MetalsPr

ep F

ood

Vegetables

Other

Plastics

24

SAFEGUARD MEASURES BY IMPORTING MEMBER 1995 – June 2008

10

87

6655

0

TurkeyIndiaChileUSJordanCzechPhilippinesJapan

Total: 87

25

SAFEGUARDSINITIATIONS: 1995 – 2007

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total: 162

26

Trade Remedy Measures ImposedBetween 1995 and June 2008

Anti-Dumping:2 106

CVDs:121

Safeguards: 87

Total: 2 314

*As notified to the WTO27

Anti-DumpingInitiations Against Japan: 1995-2008

56

1213

22

9

1413

16

9

7

11

4

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Anti-DumpingInitiations Against Japan: Importing Countries 1995-2008

4 42

28

9

23

14

33

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Argenti

naAust

ralia

Cana

da

China EC

India

Ko

rea USOth

ers

Anti-DumpingMeasures Against Japan: 1995-2008

35

7

11

19

78

109

7

4

7

10

02468

101214161820

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Anti-DumpingMeasures Against Japan: Importing Countries 1995-2008

4

2 2

23

5

18

11

20

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

Argentina Australia Canada China EC India Korea US Others

Anti-DumpingMeasures Against Japan: Sectors1995-2008

29%

17%32%

13%

9%

ChemicalsPlasticsMetalsMachineryOthers

Anti-DumpingDuration of Measures Against Japan

10 1

82

3

1

21

4

2

US Australia India Argentina

>25 Years20-25 Years15-20 Years10-15 Years<10 Years

Trade Remedies – Future?Increase in protectionism?Anti-Dumping?Countervailing measures?Safeguards?WTO-inconsistent support programmes?Grey area measures?More disputes?

Trade Remedies

It might be a somewhat bumpy ride, so ... Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seat-belts!

THANK YOU!