the downscaled climate projection has arrived – now what?
DESCRIPTION
The Downscaled Climate Projection Has Arrived – NOW WHAT?. What does an 8 °C (14.4 °F) rise in annual average temperature mean to a resource manager? THAT DEPENDS …. Ecosystem Response Models – linking climate projections to the needs of resource managers. Hydrology. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Downscaled Climate Projection Has Arrived – NOW WHAT?
What does an 8°C (14.4 °F) rise in annual average temperature mean to a resource
manager? THAT DEPENDS….
Ecosystem Response Models – linking climate projections to the needs of resource
managers
Habitat & Species
Vulnerability
DisturbancePermafrost
Hydrology
Vegetation
Climate
Conservation Action
Conceptual Model
Burned areaFire Severity
ALFRESCO
DOS-TEM
GIPL-1
Soil moistu
reMoss & Organics
Veg. canopy
Downscaled GCM Data
Vegetation type
Soil Thermal Properties
Permafrost
Ground Ice
2090 - 2099
Mean Annual Soil Temperature – 1 m Depth
2050 - 20592000 - 2009
Permafrost Model Alone
Charring Boreal Forest Forecast
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
1
2
3
4
5
6
Year
Perc
enta
ge o
f Bur
ned
Are
a
ALFRESCO - cccmaALFRESCO - echam51950 - 2006
Driven by GCM outputs of CCCMA-CGCM3.1 (CCCMA) and MPI ECHAM5 models (ECHAM5) , A1B emissions scenario.
Pilot Year : Completed in January 2012
• Identified and obtained all variables needed to drive and couple the individual models
• How to modify outputs from one model so that they are meaningful to another model
• How to downscale driving variables• How to compare similar output variables
between models to understand differences and/or uncertainties in these outputs
Phase II Objectives:4-year Plan
1) Model couplingTo develop and apply a fully synchronous coupled model over the Western Arctic integrating important components of an ecosystem model for Alaska including: fire, vegetation succession and permafrost dynamics
2) Tundra fire and treeline dynamicsTo evaluate, test and incorporate tundra fire and treeline and shrub dynamics into the Alaska IEM
3) Thermokarst dynamicsTo develop a conceptual model of thermokarst dynamics at a landscape scale and to evaluate, test and incorporate thermokarst dynamics into the Alaska IEM
4) Wetland dynamicsTo design wetland field dynamics program to support the Alaska IEM and develop, evaluate, test and incorporate wetland dynamics into the Alaska IEM
Domain and Scale
Links to Management
canopy cover
probability of firespecies composition
vegetation coverprobability of firesurface hydrology
thermokarst HabitatChangeModels
FireManagement
Models
Animal Performance
Models
vegetation coverbiomass productivity
surface hydrology
HypotheticalModel
modeoutput xmodel output y
Impact Models
Conservation & Resource
ManagementDecisions
Other Stakeholder
GroupsAlaska Integrated Ecosystem Model
Collaboration Across DisciplinesTerrestrial Ecology
Fire Science
Hydrology
Geophysics
Data Management
Ecosystem Modeling
Programming
Remote Sensing
Collaboration Across Organizations
• Academic departments• Alaska Climate Science Center• Arctic LCC• Western Alaska LCC