the drivers of productivity: the role of organisational change and other firm-level factors,...
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Presentation by Catherine Mann, "The drivers of productivity: The role of organisational change and other firm-level factors"TRANSCRIPT
Session 5: "The drivers of productivity: The role of
organisational change and other firm-level factors”
Catherine L. Mann Brandeis University, OECD Chief Economist (designate)
1
Weave a narrative
• Rising IT intensity and productivity overall
– But overall slowdown from 1990s to post-crisis
• IT-intensity and employment dynamics
– Tighter matching of employment to demand
Implications for employment and wages
2
IT Intensity, Productivity, Employment
On the Productivity Slowdown
• 90s to 20s to pre/post-crisis:
–Increase in productivity overall
–Leading sectors: lead less
–Lagging sectors: many lag more
–Middle sectors: broader group
3
IT Intensity and Productivity
On cyclical labor market dynamics
• Over the 20s boom and bust:
–Greater pro-cyclicality of IT intensive firms
–Particularly mfg, but also services
–Small IT-intensive services
• greatest job growth
4
IT Intensity and Employment
• Real IT-intensity
–Hardware, software, IT services
–KLEMS, BEA
–BLS prices
• Employment and firm size
–Statistics of US Business Dynamics
• GDP/FTE
– BEA 5
Data Construction
6
IT-intensity Contribution to Labor
Productivity: 1990s
Mann, Accelerating the Globalization of America: The Role for Information Technology, 2006
-0.70%
-0.50%
-0.30%
-0.10%
0.10%
0.30%
0.50%
0.70%
(3.00) (2.00) (1.00) - 1.00 2.00 3.00
Av
era
ge C
on
trib
uti
on
to
real
GD
P p
er
FT
E G
row
th
(2
001-2
007)
IT Intensity of Industry (Log of IT/FTE Rank 2001-2007)(2)(3)
Top-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE> .20
Bottom-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE<.20
(Size of bubble indicates the industries average share of GDP)
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Educational Services
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Information
Retail Trade
Insurance carriers and related activities
Utilities
Construction
Mining
Wholesale
Accomodations and Food Services
Other Services
Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments
Rental and Leasing services
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sources: Data--Bureau of Economic Analysis, Methodology--Digital Economy 2002/2003, Visualization--
Mann, 2006; Stephanie Postles, Economic and Strategic Research, FannieMae, Sept 2014.
(1)
per FTE per FTE
IT-intensity Contribution to Labor
Productivity: 2000s to boom
-0.70%
-0.50%
-0.30%
-0.10%
0.10%
0.30%
0.50%
0.70%
(3.00) (2.00) (1.00) - 1.00 2.00 3.00
Av
era
ge C
on
trib
uti
on
to
real
GD
P p
er
FT
E G
row
th
(2008
-2012)
IT Intensity of Industry (Log of IT/FTE Rank 2008-2012)(2)(3)
Top-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE> .17Bottom-half industries by IT Intensity, ITEQ/FTE<.17
(Size of bubble indicates the industries average share of GDP)
Professional, Scientific, and
Technical Services Durable
Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Educational Services
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting
Information
Retail Trade
Insurance carriers and related activities
Construction Mining
Wholesale
Accomodations and Food Services
Other Services
Securities, Commodity Contracts, Investments Administrative
and Waste Mgmt
Sources: Data--Bureau of Economic Analysis, Methodology--Digital Economy 2002/2003,
Visualization--Mann, 2006; Stephanie Postles, Economic and Strategic Research, FannieMae, Sept
2014.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
(1)
per FTE per FTE
IT-intensity Contribution to Labor
Productivity: 2000s bust
Real IT-Intensity 2002 vs. 2010 all using sectors all firm sizes
9
10
Real IT-Intensity 2002 vs 2010 below average-using sectors
11
Real IT-Intensity Over Time: above average using sectors
IT-Intensity and Employment Dynamics IT-intensive net growth more volatile esp. mfg
12
IT-Intensity and Employment Dynamics small (1-99) IT intensive services greatest net growth
13
IT-Intensity and Employment Dynamics greatest growth in small IT producers
14
On the slowdown in productivity • Productivity Convergence
– but not in a ‘good’ way
– leaders stop leading
– but some laggards catch-up
• Why sectoral experience differ?
– Size, management, complementarity
1
5
IT Intensity and Productivity
Implications
On cyclical labor market dynamics
Implications:
• Tighter employment management to
business cycle demand
• Bifurcate labor market into high/low
employment volatility => wages?
1
6
IT Intensity and Employment
Implications