The dynamics of a social convention

Raquel Rosés

Richard Janis Goldschmidt

Matteo Ottaviani

Matteo Manca

Pablo Aragón

Tutor: Andrea Baronchelli

1

Our social convention

Bitcoin The most popular cryptocurrency

2

Our motivation

• How do price and attention feed each other?

3

Our motivation

• How do price and attention feed each other?

• How can we use attention to make money with Bitcoin?

4

Our approach

At time unit t (week) if:

If Δn(t, Δt) > 0

Sell at n(t+1)

Buy at n(t+2)

Else

Buy at n(t+1)

Sell at n(t+2)

5

Our results

6

time (week)

Our results using demographics

7

time (week)

So, we have learnt that…

• Data-driven speculative behaviour is as bad as data-driven research is

8

So, we have learnt that…

• Data-driven speculative behaviour is as bad as data-driven research is

• We wanted to make money and now we are poor…

9