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The ‘Dynamics of Contention’ in the
Islamic Republic of Iran Understanding the Origins and Failure of the
2009 Post-Election Protests
Amy Thomson
A year and a half prior to the Arab Spring post-election protests erupted in Iran spawning the
Green Movement. Although the protests initially showed revolutionary promise, they ultimately
failed to achieve widespread political change. Using the Dynamics of Contention model it is
possible to understand what the causes of these protests were and why the protestors failed to
achieve their aims. Broad change processes, interpretative processes and the attribution of a
political opportunity converged to spark the initial protests. Elite political factionalism and
fluctuating levels of political freedom were the main broad change processes. They led to an
interpretative process which was exacerbated by allegations of electoral fraud, loss of
legitimacy. Due to the singular national importance of an election, electoral fraud is highly
visible and shared by the largest group possible, facilitating the attribution of a political
opportunity. However, the Green Movement was unable to co-opt organisational space from
workers unions or military organisations such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. This
lack of organisational space combined with an increasing attribution of threat from ongoing and
increasing repression, led the protests to subside without political success.
Table of Contents
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1
The Dynamics of Contention .............................................................................................. 2
Conceptual Clarification .................................................................................................................. 4
DOC in Historical and Intellectual Context ................................................................................... 5
DOC Components and Application................................................................................................ 7
DOC‟s Applicability to the 2009 Iranian Post-Election Protests ................................................ 9
Evaluation of the 2009 Post-election Protests .................................................................. 9
Future Possibilities ......................................................................................................................... 19
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 21
Appendices ....................................................................................................................... 27
Appendix 1: The Islamic Republic of Iran: State structure (National Democratic Institution,
2010). ............................................................................................................................................... 27
Appendix 2: Who are Mousavi‟s supporters (Kull et al., 2010, p.30)? ................................... 28
1
Introduction
In 2009, protests throughout the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) occurred in response
to suspected fraud during the presidential election held on June 12th. The official
election results were: 63% to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the incumbent president, and
34% to Mir Hussein Mousavi, prime minister from 1981-1989 (Kamrava, 2010,
p.408). These results were disputed by Ahmadinejad‟s electoral opponents. There
have been a number of previous protest cycles in Iran; however the scale and
intensity of these protests surprised even the opposition leadership.
A framework for understanding this mobilisation is provided by the Dynamics of
Contention (DOC) model. Two DOC broad change processes preceding the
election, intensification of political factionalism and the restriction of political
freedoms, increased popular resentment and contributed to public questioning of
regime legitimacy both of which are interpretative processes. Ahmadinejad‟s
apparent fraud not only emphasised this loss of legitimacy, but also created a
political opportunity for protest. Subsequent repression, allegations of corruption,
and the death of Ayatollah Montazeri, an honoured opposition leader, at first fuelled
the regime opposition which became known as the Green Movement (GM).
However, by the end of January 2010, large scale protest aimed at reform or
revolution had ceased due to limited organisational space, the failure of the GM to
take advantage of economic hardship, and the exorbitant cost of protest due to
relentless repression. Even in light of the recent unrest across the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA), protest within Iran has been limited and quickly extinguished.
Part of the reason for this is that the 2009 post-election protests accelerated a broad
change process of militarisation which has increased the strength of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) and its stake it the current regime. However,
increasing strength has also led to internal tension within the IRGC. If that tension
were to reach a critical level the opposition to the regime maybe able to form a
coalition with the IRGC dissenters, increasing the potential for successful protest.
This paper begins with an explanation of what the DOC is and why it is to be
preferred to more traditional approaches to social movements and revolutions. This
is followed by a more in depth look at the individual components of the DOC. The
2
model is then applied to the context of the 2009 post-election protests in an attempt
to determine what the causes of these protests were. Finally, I analyse what the
consequences of these protests have been and possible future outcomes.
The Dynamics of Contention
The „Dynamics of Contention‟ (DOC) was developed by McAdam, Tarrow and Tilly
(2001) as a contemporary approach for analysing the mobilisation of society. It is a
mechanistic approach amenable to case study application because it focuses on „a
delimited class of events that alter relations among specified sets of elements in
identical or closely similar ways over a variety of situations‟ (McAdam et al., 2001,
p.24). The general elements of the model, explained in the section on „DOC
Components and Application‟ are: broad change processes, interpretive processes,
attribution of threats and opportunities, appropriation of existing organisational space
and contingent collective identity, and innovative collective action (McAdam, 2004,
p.211). As is demonstrated in Figure 1, these elements affect both state and non-
state actors, and interact in a given scenario to create a unique political context.
It is this political context which determines the nature of the relationship between
state and challenger. There are four modes of political interaction: prescribed
politics, subterranean politics, elite contention and popular contention (McAdam,
2004, p.223). Figure 2 provides explanation for what they are and in what political
context they will arise. The figure demonstrates that if both state and challenger
become uncertain about the possibility of protecting/attaining their interests, then
sustained popular contention will ensue because they continue to perceive threats or
opportunities in the environment (McAdam, 2004, p.223). Popular contention will
disappear when the environment becomes certain either because the state
compromises due to the certainty of challenger success, or because the likelihood of
state success is such that the cost of protest is too high (Pierskalla, 2010). Figure 1
demonstrates that it is the interaction between processes which creates or
diminishes the perception of environmental uncertainty. It is the onset of popular
contention in 2009 within Iran which is the focus of this essay.
3
Figure 1
Figure 1: A Dynamic, Interactive, Framework for Analyzing the Emergence of
Contentious Politics1
1 McAdam, "Revisiting the U.S. Civil Rights Movement: Toward a More Synthetic Understanding of
the Origins of Contention ", 211.
Bro
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4
Figure 2: Modes of Political Interaction2
Nature of Mobilised
Actors
Perceptual Condition
Certain Uncertain
Institutionalized
Political groups
Prescribed Politics
(routine decision-making and
administration)
Elite Contention
(conflict between political
groups of a public and
collective nature)
Previously
unorganized non-
political collectives
Subterranean Politics
(unorganised or non-political
group mobilization confronting
a closed political system)
Popular Contention
(political activity of newly
mobilised actors of a
non-institutional nature)
Conceptual Clarification
Protest can be defined as political „collective action of individuals aimed at achieving
their goal or goals by influencing decisions of a target‟ (Opp, 2009, p.38). Under this
definition „wars, revolutions, rebellions, social movements, industrial conflict, feuds,
riots, banditry, shaming ceremonies and many more forms of collective struggle‟
which are identified as forms of contentious politics by Tarrow (1996, p.881), can
also be placed along a „protest continuum‟ from low intensity (non-violent) to high
intensity (violent) protest (Carey, 2006, p.2). Revolutions represent one of the most
high intensity forms of protest both because there are a large number of people
involved and because they represent „an effort to transform the political institutions
and the justifications for political authority in a society, accompanied by formal or
informal mass mobilization and non-institutionalized actions that undermine existing
authorities‟ (Goldstone, 2001, p.142). At the other end of the continuum is the social
movement, a „collective body distinguished by a high level of commitment and
political activism…acting within a loose organizational framework…with a level of
2 Ibid., 223.
5
intended and planned action in pursuit of a recognized [isolated] social goal‟
(Heywood, 2007, p.308, 458). Social movements may or may not involve a
substantial proportion of the population and they may originate in a distinct protest
episode. The larger they get and the more active, the more likely they will turn into a
rebellion or revolution, particularly when combined with other opposition activities
occurring simultaneously.
DOC in Historical and Intellectual Context
The DOC stands in historical and intellectual contrast to earlier approaches which
failed to adequately explain the causes of mobilisation. Goldstone identifies three
20th century „generations‟ in the study of revolution: description, behavioural analysis,
and structuralism (Goldstone, 1980). There is some chronological overlap, but the
first generation occurred between 1900 and 1940 and is represented by Brinton‟s
„The Anatomy of Revolution‟ (Goldstone, 1980, p.425). This generation identified
common features and stages of revolution, providing useful insights into
social/demographic changes emphasised in concepts such as the „desertion of the
intellectuals‟ (Goldstone, 1980).3 However, these concepts failed to consider the
underlying causes of revolution – for example, why did the intellectuals come to the
conclusion that radical alteration to the political system was necessary (Goldstone,
1980, p.427)? The second generation unfolded between 1940 and 1975, focusing on
behavioural and sociological analysis as conceived in Ted Gurr‟s „Why Men Rebel‟
(1970). This was an attempt to create broad theories about the „why‟ of revolutions.
However, this generation was critiqued for their focus on single factor analysis, only
explaining part of the phenomenon (Goldstone, 2001, p.140). For example, protest
and revolution are determined by more than just „relative deprivation‟.4
Thus, a third generation developed; the currently dominant structural approach
classically portrayed in Skocpol‟s comparison of the Russian, French and Chinese
3 „Desertion of the intellectuals‟ refers to the expression of ideas that are „at once more bitter and
more hopeful‟ than usual, by an absolute or comparative majority of writers, artists, musicians, actors, teachers, preachers etc. which reject the status quo, describing instead an alternate, utopian society with different political and/or production systems. Brinton, The Anatomy of Revolution, 44-52.
4 Relative deprivation is the „actors‟ perception of discrepancy between their value expectations and
their value capabilities. Value expectations are the goods and conditions of life to which people believe they are rightfully entitled. Value capabilities are the goods and conditions they think they are capable of getting and keeping.” Gurr, Why Men Rebel, 24.
6
revolutions (Goldstone, 2001, p.171). It emphasises the historical and structural
mechanisms underlying mobilisation and seeks general laws governing the causes
of mobilisation (Tilly, 2005, p.211). However, criticisms of structuralism are plentiful:
terminological confusion, the emphasis placed on political opportunity to the
detriment of the study of threat, the neglect of culture within structural studies, the
total absence of the study of emotion, dismissal of individual motivations, emphasis
on movement motivations, neglect of state actor motivations, neglect of the
international impact on internal relations, the static nature of the model without
reference to the interaction between various factors, and the search for universal
laws where none exist.5
A poststructuralist consensus emerged out of this critique (Kurzman, 2004). This
consensus includes tentative agreement on the relational characteristics of the
underlying causal mechanisms (Steinberg, 2004, p.122). McAdam, Tarrow, and Tilly
built on this post-structural agreement to create the DOC. As former structuralists,
their model inevitably has structural roots, but combines rationalist,
phenomenological, and cultural epistemologies to create a dynamic, holistic model
(Kurzman, 2004, p.118; McAdam et al., 2001, p.23). It has the capacity to explain
the causal mechanisms for various episodes unsatisfactorily explained by any one of
the previous analytical traditions. It also explains why contention does not occur,
despite the predictions of other models. The DOC is therefore very flexible; it can be
conceived of in terms of a political science adjustable spanner.
However, this flexibility creates its own problems. Since the model might be used to
encompass any or all potential causes, it may not provide any real answers. Its very
flexibility potentially renders it meaningless. Thus, in the search for universal laws of
contention, it is useless. On the other hand, the creators suggest that is the beauty
of the model. They claim that there are no universal laws. In acknowledging this
fact, the model enables the user to understand one particular situation in all its
complexity, instead of generalising an ungeneralisable situation. Nevertheless, they
do suggest that it is possible to identify „partial parallel‟s‟ between situations in which
5 Goodwin and Jasper, 2004; Gould, 2004; McAdam, 2004; Rasler, 1996.
7
the same or similar mechanisms are at work, but which „combine differently and
therefore produce different outcomes‟ (McAdam et al., 2001, p.14).
The DOC also continues the tradition of neglecting trigger events, such as election
fraud (Kuntz and Thompson, 2009). However, they can be incorporated into the
framework during the analysis of the attribution of opportunity. If a change occurs in
the political context (broad change process), increasing resentment within the
population (interpretive process), innovative collective action will emerge if the
opposition is given the opportunity to frame (interpretive process) a potential trigger
event in such a way that previously disenchanted or moderate people are incited to
act, leading to an escalation in contention. This is important since the proximity of
the 2009 Iranian presidential elections to the protests suggests they acted as a
trigger event.
DOC Components and Application
Here I explain each component of the DOC, and illustrate with examples from
contemporary Iranian history. Broad change processes are sets of events which
trigger change in the economic, political and cultural dimensions of society,
undermining the assumptions upon which relations between state and non-state
actors are predicated (McAdam et al., 2001, p.42). Broad change processes include
„wars, industrialization, international political alignments, prolonged [economic woes],
and wide-spread demographic changes‟ (McAdam, 2004, p.213). For example, two
decades of petro-dollar fuelled modernisation from the early 1960s to 1979 radically
altered Iranian class structure, led to mass urbanisation, and increased economic
inequality, creating negative interpretative processes that were instrumental in the
emergence of popular contention during the Islamic Revolution of 1979
(Abrahamian, 2008).
Interpretative processes enable people to make sense of events collectively, sharing
and framing expectations and grievances (McAdam, 2004, p.215). They are a
crucial determinant in whether society will mobilize because a citizen needs to
believe action is necessary in order to become active (Meyer, 2004, p.50).
Interpretative processes automatically occur in response to broad change processes
and depend on the positive or negative perception of the changes. If positive, then
expectations will increase. If negative, than grievances will increase. Often they
8
occur unconsciously, however, leaders also strategically use symbols in order to
emotionally and culturally galvanise people into action through a specific rendering of
events (McAdam, 2004, p.215). In Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini utilized religious
symbols to effectively motivate the populace. In 1963, he framed opposition to the
Shah in terms of good versus evil by comparing the Shah to the historical-cultural
villain Yazid, and himself to the Shi‟i hero Imam Hoseyn (Brumberg, 2001, p.74).6
The third component of the DOC is the attribution of threat and opportunity. For
mobilization to occur not only are grievances needed, but also optimism that action
will be effective (Meyer, 2004, p.50) It is not the existence of a threat or opportunity
that is important in understanding why the behaviour of citizens changes; it is the
attribution of it (Kurzman, 2004, p.116). To explain: If an opportunity exists, but is
not perceived then the opportunity cannot be exploited. Conversely, if no
opportunity exists, but actors perceive one, they may act accordingly. The outcome
can go one of two ways. In 1963, an uprising occurred in Iran when the state
ostensibly revealed weakness in allowing Khomeini access to Feyziyeh seminary
after expressing the intention to prohibit such a visit.7 However, the protests were
brutally crushed (Brumberg, 2001, p.74). In contrast, during the Islamic Revolution,
by acting as if an opportunity existed, ordinary Iranians generated an opportunity
which did not previously exist: the state collapsed under the force of their belief,
despite the state‟s bureaucratic and military capacity to crush resistance (Kurzman,
1996, p.163).
The fourth component of the DOC, the appropriation of existing organisational space
and the contingent collective identity, is crucial if the perceived opportunity is to be
taken advantage of. This means utilizing communication networks and space that
are not ordinarily used for political action (McAdam, 2004, p.218). In utilizing them,
opposition leaders are able to tap into the already existing collective identity of
network members to frame their struggle in „us against them‟ terms (McAdam, 2004,
6 Yazid was a Sunni Caliph who had Imam Hoseyn killed in the year 680, martyring him in the
process. At the time Imam Hoseyn was attempting to restore „Alid rule at Karbala. His martyrdom is marked each year on the religious day, Ashura (Lazarus-Yafeh, 2006).
7 Feyziyeh seminary is located in Qom, and is the location from which Ayatollah Khomeini delivered
his public sermons, conveying his message of dissent.
9
p.219). For example, during the Islamic Revolution, Bazaaris appropriated space in
the mosques to protest against the state, tapping into a broader religious identity with
cross-class reach (Parsa, 2009a, p.13).8
Finally, innovative collective action is „action that departs from previous collective
routines‟ (McAdam, 2004, p.220). It occurs once the attribution of opportunity is
combined with the appropriation of social networks and space in order to express
resentment created by the interpretation of broad change processes (McAdam,
2004). When such action is taken by a significant proportion of the population that
was not previously politically active, popular contention has ensued. In Iran, such
innovative collective action is ideally demonstrated in the boycott of tobacco in 1891.
Boycotts had not previously been used as a form of protest against state actions.9
DOC’s Applicability to the 2009 Iranian Post-Election Protests
The five DOC dimensions readily gain traction on the empirical detail of the 2009
Iranian post-election protests due to the incorporation of emotion and culture into the
model through interpretative processes. The DOC also acknowledges the
importance of structures such as the economy in broad change processes. The
framing of opportunity/threat in terms of attribution is also of importance to Iran given
that that the state had not structurally weakened prior to the Islamic revolution
(Kurzman, 1996). Thus, the revolution only occurred because the people, perceiving
an existential opportunity, created it themselves. Furthermore, the ability of the
model to explain why popular contention may fail to arise or cease without success is
vital due to the apparent cessation of political protest since December 2009.
Evaluation of the 2009 Post-election Protests
The DOC provides insight into which causal mechanisms influenced the 2009 post-
election protests. Figure 3 chronicles the major protest events in this contentious
8 Bazaars or Persian markets are composed of a hierarchical mixture of “import–exporters,
wholesalers, retailers, brokers, and middlemen who make up the historic commercial class.”
Keshavarzian, 228.
9 The Tobacco boycott of 1891 was instigated by the Bazaars with the help of the Ulama in response
to a growing number of economic concessions to foreign interests, including a concession on the production and distribution of Tobacco.
10
episode. There are three groups of broad change processes: economic, political
freedoms, and factionalism. All may have had an influence on the outbreak, intensity
and protraction of popular contention as portrayed in Figure 3.
During the 1990s, the end of the Iran-Iraq war and economic liberalisation
contributed to a long period of economic growth and a marked decrease in poverty.
However, due to corruption and a lack of transparency in the oil economy, to the
poor, these gains may seem relatively small compared to the gains of the elite
(Salehi-Isfahani, 2009, p.26). This is exacerbated by the failure of the government to
make inroads into inequality as calculated by the Gini index (Salehi-Isfahani,
2009).10 The expectations of the poor in terms of the rise in their living standards
have not been met, even though they have materially increased, leading to
resentment and social envy (Salehi-Isfahani, 2009, p.26). In the middle-classes the
economic gains of the last two decades are overshadowed by the memory of the
desperate times in the 1980s. This leads many to overstate the differences in living
standards between the Shah‟s Iran and the Islamic Republic, another interpretative
process (Salehi-Isfahani, 2009, p.10). Furthermore, unemployment, particularly
among youth, and job insecurity have also increased over the last two decades,
despite increasing prosperity (Salehi-Isfahani, 2009, p.25). Even if a job is secure,
there is no guarantee that wages will be paid on time or at all (Mather, 2010, p.507).
Increasing unemployment and insecurity is accompanied by an interpretative
process of increasing public grievances blaming the government for the
predicament. These interpretative processes have increased the potential for
political instability. Worker‟s protests and strikes have been widespread during
Ahmadinejad‟s first presidency. In 2008 over 4000 workers actions took place
(Mather, 2010).
During Khatami‟s tenure as president, attempts were made to politically liberalise
society. In particular, political space was liberated in the media and universities for
the expression of free speech (Ashraf and Banuazizi, 2001, p.251). Local elections
were also set up which increased the potential for political participation and
grassroots mobilisation (Ehteshami and Zweri, 2007, p.35). For opposition forces this
10 Gini index is used to calculate the disparity in household income. The higher the coefficient, the
greater the level of inequality is within the country.
11
redirection was accompanied by the widespread attribution of opportunity and a
declining sense of threat due to the influence the president supposedly had to
prevent repression (Abrahamian, 2008, p.191).
Unfortunately, the high expectations of political freedom were disappointed. The
minimal organisational space opened for protest was closed again even before the
end of Khatami‟s presidency by a conservative crackdown which manifested in the
repression of student protests in 1999 and the forcible closure of the media by the
Judiciary in 2000 (Ashraf and Banuazizi, 2001, p.252). This policy intensified after
Ahmadinejad‟s election in 2005 with a mini „cultural revolution‟ in the universities
refusing politically active students admittance (Ehsani, 2006). The failure of political
liberalisation contributed to a feeling of disenchantment and resentment among the
public more potent for the increased expectations which preceded it.
Disenchantment manifested itself in the very low turnout for the 2003 municipal and
2004 Majlis (Iranian legislature) elections (Arjomand, 2005, p.51). In the 2004 Majlis
elections voter turnout was 51% and in the 2003 municipal elections only 39% voted
with the figure as low as 12% in Tehran. This compares with a high of 65% for the
1999 municipal elections and 71% for Majlis elections in 1996 (Parsons, 2010, p.11;
Takeyh, 2003).
However, this disenchantment and resentment led not to the elimination of protest,
but to the radicalization of students and worker who belonged to ready made
networks easily appropriated to protesting and which bypass conventional methods
of closing organisational space. In 2006 students burned pictures of Ahmadinejad at
a rally and some of the workers actions in 2008 took place involved the kidnap of
managers (Razavi, 2009, p.13; Mather, 2010, p.508). It is in this context of
radicalization and disenchantment that the 2009 post-election protests took place.
Factionalism has been present since the IRI formed. Throughout, there were
unspoken parameters within which the struggle was contained. The most important
was the concealment of the depth of factionalism from the electorate (Saikal, 2009,
p.95). Elections were part of the arsenal used to prevent the tension escalating.
Through them any faction could potentially gain a measure of institutional power. In
doing so elections prevented elite defection (Tezcür, 2009, p.13). So long as the
12
elite were united in their belief in the establishment, factional fighting remained
confined to a safe level (Kamrava, 2010, p.411).
Since Ahmadinejad‟s election in 2005, the landscape of factional politics has altered
radically. This constitutes a broad change process because the assumptions upon
which state and challenger acted were undermined. The balance of power has
shifted towards a new faction, the neoconservatives, who won a large swath of the
local council seats in 2003 and the Majlis seats in 2004 (Ehteshami and Zweri,
2007). A polarising effect also occurred during the 2005 election with the
neoconservatives and conservatives forming a coalition against the reformist camp,
hardening the stances of all (Kamrava, 2010, p.403). Institutional mechanisms were
then revised to maintain the neoconservative/conservative balance of power, leaving
the reformists without institutional recourse (Razavi, 2010, p.83). The measures
used include the vetting of reformists in elections from 2003, the politicisation of the
Faqih in favour of Ahmadinejad, and the militarisation of the regime in support of the
neoconservatives (Kamrava, 2010, p.402-403; Ehteshami and Zweri, 2007, p.46).
This broad change process strained the parameters agreed previously, because the
reformists were losing faith in their ability to affect change from within the system.
During the 2009 election campaign a public letter written by ex-president Rafsanjani
to the Faqih highlighted the increasing rift.11 During the course of a televised debate
between candidates, Ahmadinejad accused Rafsanjani and other elite figures of
corruption. In his letter, Rafsanjani claimed these allegations undermined the regime
and called on the Faqih to respond (Esfandiari, 2009). The heatedness of the
campaign had the consequence of not only solidifying factional rifts, but taking the
conflict beyond the unspoken parameters, into the public arena where it became
unmanageable (Kamrava, 2010, p.407). The campaign exposed the instability at the
heart of Iranian system, caused by factionalism. An interpretative process
accompanied this exposure as public frustration with elite contention increased. In
essence:
„…politics has become so polarized that factional differences simply cannot be
contained. Thus, the frustrations regarding the system and inability of
11 Rafsanjani was President from 1989 – 1997 and ran in the election as a reformist candidate in 2005
but did not 2009
13
factionalism to deliver coherent politics and what had been promised in 1979,
namely political freedom and social justice, spilled over onto the streets…‟
(Razavi, 2010, p.83)
The contention was framed by opposition leaders, like Montazeri, who questioned
the Faqih‟s legitimacy. They declared that he exacerbated elite contention by
aligning himself with the neoconservatives and in doing so stepped outside his
constitutional role as a neutral arbiter (Safshekan and Sabet, 2010, p.557; Razavi,
2010, p.84).
Other interpretative processes also increased the likelihood of post-election protest.
Prior to the election public expectations were heightened in regards to the reformists‟
potential electoral prospects (Kuntz and Thompson, 2009, p.257). This interpretative
process occurred because while elections in the past had not been fair due to
Council of Guardians (COG) vetting inconsistencies, they had been perceived to be
free of decisive fraud (see appendix 1 for detail on the COG‟s position) (Kamrava,
2010, p.410). The most potent symbol of this freedom was the reformist win in 1997,
with Khatami becoming President. Reformists also had success in municipal and
Majlis elections between Khatami‟s inauguration and 2003. In the context of these
events, previous accusations of fraud were less visible and/or less meaningful. This
process was further advanced when the COG decided to allow a reformist candidate
to run in the 2009 Presidential elections and by the historic openness of the 2009
election campaign illustrated by the four unique television debates by electoral
candidates (Tezcür, 2009, p.16). When expectations were not met and electoral
irregularities were so visible as to suggest the elections had been stolen, the
interpretative process deepened the legitimacy crisis already fermenting (Afshari,
2009, p.844). The loss of legitimacy is demonstrated by protestors‟ slogans: „death
to the dictator‟ (Sahliyeh, 2010, p.184). They were a challenge to the position of
Faqih, not just a call for Ahmadinejad‟s resignation or an election rerun.
The interpretative processes derived from factionalism and fraud not only created a
reason for rebellion, the loss of legitimacy, but also an attribution of opportunity. The
people believed success was likely because there was an „imagined community of
millions of robbed voters‟ which made them feel less isolated in their struggle (Kuntz
and Thompson, 2009, p.258). In the attribution of an opportunity it is not the actual
14
number of people who feel outraged that is important, but how many are imagined to
share those feelings. Polls conducted by World Public Opinion show a majority of
the public thought the elections free and fair (Kull et al., 2010, p.11).12 However,
crucially, Figure 4 also reveals that a majority of Mousavi supporters believed
Mousavi was going to win the election. It is not unreasonable to assume that these
supporters would believe a majority of the population would be outraged by the
results when he did not win. Sustained popular contention does not require that a
majority of the population be involved, so long as enough are involved to sustain the
belief in the possibility of success. After all, only 10% of the population took part in
the Islamic Revolution and less than 2% took part in the French revolution and the
overthrow of Soviet communism (Selbin, 2009, p.31).
Protests were further intensified by interpretative processes compromising
Khamenei‟s position. These processes were related to subsequent repressive
actions, journalists‟ corruption allegations, and Montazeri‟s death. The violent
repression allowed protestors to be martyred. This increased the perception of the
self-interestedness of the regime. Thus, the death of 27-year-old philosophy student
Neda Agha Soltan became an „icon of that permanent break with the regime‟
(Afshari, 2009, p.855).
Journalistic exposés alleging corruption, such as Mohsen Makhmalbaf‟s film,
impacted Ayatollah Khamenei‟s image of religiosity (Fischer, 2010, p.512). Similar
incidents were implicated in the French and Islamic Revolutions. For example, in
1977 the Iranian Writers Association organised ten nights of poetry reading that were
highly critical of the Shah and led to street demonstrations (Abrahamian, 2008,
p.158). In France thousands of cartoons and other artwork were produced which
were highly critical of the monarchy, and impacted the perceptions of the public
(Gretton, 1989).
Montazeri died on December 21st, seven days before Ashura in the month of
Muharram. This timing ensured that the story of Imam Hoseyn and Yazid would be
transposed onto Montazeri and Khamenei respectively, delegitimizing Khamenei
12 However, Ansari points to anomalies, and methodological and interpretative inconsistencies with
this polling data. Ansari, 2010, p.12.
15
(Fischer, 2010, p.500).13 At Montazeri‟s funeral and on Ashura, calls of „Mazlum‟
(wronged one) were heard. Traditionally, this term was reserved for Imam Hoseyn
(Fischer, 2010, p.502). The relationship between these events and the protests is
illustrated in Figure 3. This interpretative process was made more powerful by its
symbolic symmetry to Khomeini‟s struggle against the Shah which employed the
same story (Brumberg, 2001, p.73).
From the outset both the opposition and the regime have attempted to appropriate
religious symbolism, the story of Yazid and Hoseyn is just one example (Fischer,
2010, p.519). However, since the Islamic Revolution, religious symbolism has been
controlled by the state. This only changed after the 2009 election when the colour
green became the symbol of opposition to the regime, becoming incorporated into
the name of the new social movement, the Green Movement (GM). Green is a
symbol for Islam. By using it, the GM denied the establishment control of Islamic
symbolism. One did not have to be anti-Islamic to join opposition to the Islamic
Republic (Fischer, 2010, p.519). It also enabled the GM to use other Islamic
symbols, such as the Karbala Paradigm (social justice) (Fischer, 2010, p.513). In
this sense then, not only is the use of green an interpretative process, but it also
doubles as an appropriation of organisational space and routine collective identity
because Islam has become a part of the movement‟s identity, increasing the number
of potential supporters.
Cyberspace and the use of information and communication technologies were also
instrumental in making room for protest and the formation of a movement identity
(Haghighat and Mansouri, 2010). Even though the government managed to close
off traditional communication sources such as the newspapers and satellite
channels, these were circumvented by accessing the internet, a medium the
government finds much more difficult to control. It has the ability to choke off internet
speeds and block specific websites. However, despite slow internet speeds people
were uploading videos and photos, communicating through „Facebook, Twitter,
blogs, emails, online newsletters, Short Message Services (SMS) and Bluetooth‟ and
the widespread use of proxy servers prevents the government choking off access to
13 See footnote 4 for detail on this story
16
this information (Haghighat and Mansouri, 2010, p.30). Furthermore, the use of
Bluetooth technology allowed information to disseminate to a much broader sector of
society then traditional internet technologies because Iranian mobile users, who are
twice as numerous as internet users, are able to utilise the technology (Haghighat
and Mansouri, 2010, p.30). This ability to sidestep conventional methods of
communication, not only provided people with the space to organise, but enabled
them to build a collective identity because they could now successfully contest
establishment framing of their actions and goals (Haghighat and Mansouri, 2010,
p.33).
Nevertheless, it has become increasingly obvious that the internet is not the haven of
space that it was initially assumed to be (Fischer, 2010, p.518). The government
has not allowed protesters to use the internet freely. „Hacktivists‟ disrupted websites
of both sides, and the government used a name and shame internet campaign to
identify particular protesters (Haghighat and Mansouri, 2010, p.32). Also, the very
nature of the internet as a public sphere enabled the government to monitor
information about where and when protests would take place and who was involved,
providing them with the means to prepare counter-measures and arrest activists
(Morozov, 2009, p.12). Finally, a large proportion of the population was not using the
internet to gather information about the protests. The people who were using the
internet to find out what was going on were mostly outside of Iran and while they
were able to create international pressure to condemn the Iranian government
(Haghighat and Mansouri, 2010, p.31), there is a question over how much influence
they had domestically. Domestic internet users were generally already Mousavi
supporters (see Appendix 2), and thus inclined to protest (Kull et al., 2010, p.18).14
Therefore, by using the internet protestors received an inaccurate picture of the
amount of support for Mousavi, and the movement was not expanding its support
base.
The GM has also struggled to appropriate more tangible organisational structures.
The initial protests were a spontaneous outpouring of anger and frustration (Fischer,
2010, p.513). Such spontaneity led to a diverse number of goals within the social
14 Ansari (2010) makes the point that it is common for internet user to print off the dissident
information and circulate it through the community.
17
movement, the GM, evolving out of the protests. There is a particularly important
divide between followers and leaders. The GM leaders have been more circumspect
than the protestors in general, calling only for the annulment of election results
(Mather, 2010, p.510). However, the gap between the leadership and movement
may have narrowed with the publication of the GM Charter on June 15th 2010. This
charter aims to increase „coordination and sympathy and to strengthen a common
identity within the Green Movement‟ and offers evidence that Mousavi may be
becoming a stronger advocate for democracy (Mousavi, 2010, as cited in The Green
Voice of Freedom, 2010). However, the evidence is far from definitive and Mousavi
has shown little further inclination for regime change despite continuing to call for
reform (Tait, 2010b).
The GM also failed to appropriate the organisational space of other dissenting
networks, such as ethnic organisations and, more importantly, workers unions. The
importance of workers to opposition movements was demonstrated by the differing
success of the 1963 riots and the Islamic Revolution (Parsa, 2009b, p.163).15 Thus,
gaining the support of the working class is crucial if the GM is to be successful
(Maljoo, 2010). Unfortunately, independent, national labour unions have been
prohibited since the Islamic Revolution (Maljoo, 2010). It is only in the last few years
that the formation of organisations, like the Network of Iranian Labour Unions, has
begun in earnest (Maljoo, 2010). Yet, labour action remains isolated because these
networks operate underground without the permission of the state, making
communication difficult and the cost of action high (Maljoo, 2010). Thus, while
Figure 5 illustrated that a large number of workers actions and ethnic protests
occurred in 2010, they remain localised, scattered, and disconnected from the GM
(Maljoo, 2010).
Furthermore, it is unclear that their interests are best served by joining such a
coalition, despite suggestions that labour unions have begun allying with the GM.
Homayoun Pourzad (pseudonym), spokesperson for the Network of Iranian Labour
Unions, said in August of the GM „…our platform is not identical to his [Mousavi]‟
15 The 1963 riots were brutally crushed and workers did not participate at all; the opposition during the
Iranian Revolution succeeded and workers made a major contribution to that success.
18
(Homayoun Pourzad, 2010, as cited in Maljoo, 2010). This is despite the use of the
Karbala Paradigm by Mousavi and suggests the effectiveness of appropriating the
paradigm has been limited. The reason is that the GM is portrayed as a largely
middle class movement concentrated in „North Tehran‟ (Kamrava, 2010, p.409).16
The leaders were either proponents of Iran‟s economic liberalisation (Rafsanjani), or
appeared to ignore economic issues in pursuit of political reform (Khatami). Thus,
to the working class the GM leaders are analogous to the conservative
establishment (Maljoo, 2010). This suggests that the worsening economic climate
was not as significant a broad change process in the outbreak of post-election
protest as commentators, such as Mather (2010), suggest.
Along with the failure to appropriate organisational structures, individual protestors
now attribute a new threat. Although initially, due to the spontaneity of the action
and the hesitation of the government, protesters were able to appropriate space on
the streets to protest, once the choice was made to repress opposition it became life-
risking to protest. Protestors were beaten, put in jail, tortured, executed, and
assassinated by members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps‟ (IRGC) Al-
Qods (Jerusalem) force and the Basij (Tait, 2010a). Since Ashura, on major
anniversaries and religious holidays the government security apparatus has had a
heightened presence. This was particularly so on the anniversary of the 2009
elections, June 12th 2010 (Aljazeera, 2010).
In consequence, despite the interpretative and broad change processes that
occurred and led to popular contention, the GM has failed to realise its goals or
sustain popular contention. There have been no broad-based political protests since
December 2009 (see Figure 5), and no compromises from the government. Even the
unrest in the MENA that broke out in December 2010 did not significantly affect
internal Iranian politics. Two demonstrations in support of the rebellions in Tunisia
and Egypt did take place involving tens of thousands of people, one on February 14th
and one on February 20th, despite the Ministry of Interior‟s refusal to authorise those
16 Ansari (2010) rejects the label „North Tehran‟ as an absurdity because the term was used to
suggest the protestors were Shah Sympathisers. In reality North Tehran is home not only to the western-educated intellectuals and middle-class, but also to a „new elite‟, including members of the IRGC, who are becoming powerful individuals with a more modest educational background to the intellectuals.
19
protests (Esfandiari, 2011a; Tait, 2011a). However, those protests were ruthlessly
crushed with a couple of protesters shot dead and the house arrest of Mousavi and
Karrubi (Tait, 2011b; Esfandiari, 2011b). No further mass political protests have
taken place since.
Future Possibilities
Iran‟s political environment has been permanently marked by the protests. While
protests have died down for now, the GM may yet achieve its aims. There are two
significant features to consider: accelerated militarisation and ongoing factionalism.
Militarisation was occurring before the 2009 election due to the connection between
the neoconservatives in the Majlis and the IRGC, and the increasing domination of
the IRGC in the economy. However, this broad change process consolidated after
Ahmadinejad‟s election (Clinton, 2010, as cited in Mather, 2010, p.506). By crushing
the protests, Ahmadinejad became obligated to the IRGC (Kamrava, 2010, p.404).
Khamenei has also become increasingly reliant on the IRGC for stability due to his
delegitimisation in the wake of his actions (Safshekan and Sabet, 2010, p.557). This
has allowed the IRGC to interfere even further into domestic politics at the expense
of more democratic institutions, such as the Majlis (Kamrava, 2010, p.410-411).
They have also infiltrated those democratic institutions; currently all cabinet ministers
bar one are strongly connected to the IRGC (Safshekan and Sabet, 2010, p.553). In
consequence, Iran has moved a step toward a military dictatorship, albeit with a
democratic veneer. If Presidential candidates with IRGC ties, like Ahmadinejad,
continue to win the elections (whether through fraud, COG manipulation, or popular
consent) this process will deepen (Kamrava, 2010, p.410). In such a case, the GM‟s
goals of democratic reform are unlikely to be realised, because unlike the Shah‟s
army, the IRGC is ideologically motivated to protect the status quo (Ward, 2009).
Where the Shah‟s army allowed revolutionary protests to proceed, the IRGC will not
due to the potential threat they pose to the regime.
However, at the same time as the IRGC is externally strengthening, internal division
is apparently increasing. One ex-IRGC officer claims that up to a third of the force is
supportive of the GM (Stickler and O'Kane, 2010). It was the al-Qods force,
composed of Lebanese and Palestinians, not Iranians, who took the leading role
during the crackdown, acting as snipers like the one that shot Neda Soltan.
20
However, the Basij also did not hesitate to arrest, beat, and occasionally kill
protestors (Stickler and O'Kane, 2010). Furthermore, tension is increasing within the
guards because Ahmadinejad is replacing many experienced members with young
men with less knowledge of Islam and the Islamic Revolution (Ansari, 2010). If this
trend continues, then the GM may succeed. It would require the formation of a
coalition between the movement and the IRGC. This is unlikely at the moment
because individuals within the IRGC remain dependent upon the current regime
(Stickler and O'Kane, 2010). Yet it is imaginable in the future.
While the protests have died down, contention within the elite has not. The
reformists have not yet given up, despite their current impotence. The institutional
failings which led to factionalism have also not yet been resolved. Furthermore, the
conservatives and neoconservatives are vying for institutional power now that the
reformists have been neutralised (Yong and Worth, 2010). Since factional politics
seems unlikely to normalise, elite contention will continue and may once again
evolve into popular contention if the interaction of DOC processes becomes
favourable. This is possible if a coalition between the GM and the economically
significant sectors of society (Bazaar and workers) forms due to the continuing
inability of the factional system to resolve the political and economic problems
assailing society (Razavi, 2010, p.92). In that scenario the organisational space for
the GM will increase significantly, potentially overriding the threat attributed to state
repression. There are two possible outcomes: the neoconservatives and
conservatives negotiate with the reformists who regain access to the of power, or the
stability of the regime will be tested.
This does not mean the GM is finished. Since the protests failed to resolve the
original factional conflict, elite contention is ongoing. Furthermore, the economic
environment is worsening, a broad change process which may yet allow the
movement to appropriate organisational space from the workers‟ unions and the
Bazaar. If this happens the dominant forces within the regime may be forced to
negotiate with the other elite factions, or watch their regime collapse. This will
particularly be the case if militarisation, a broad change process which accelerated
after the 2009 election, increases tension within the IRGC to the point that a
significant proportion of the organisation begins collaborating with the GM.
21
Conclusion
Using the DOC it has been possible to understand the evolution of the 2009 post-
election protests. Their roots lie in the public resentment created during broad
change processes over the past two decades. These processes were primarily
political liberalisation and factionalism. The prolonged economic recovery and failure
to narrow the income gap may also have contributed.
These broad changes led to interpretative processes. On the surface political
liberalisation would appear to have a positive affect on society‟s interpretative
processes. It generates feelings of hope and freedom. However, when it is followed
by a subsequent crackdown, as it was in Iran, resentment is created from the ruins of
their expectations. This increases a perception of regime illegitimacy within society.
These feelings were enhanced by the failure of the elections to meet society‟s
expectations of freedom due to the overt nature of the fraud.
Factional realignment which increased the tension within the elite also became a
significant factor during the 2009 election campaign because the reformists began to
lose faith in their ability to change the system from within and prevented the regime
from developing a coherent set of policies with which to target society‟s ills. This
elite contention was then framed by opposition leaders as illegitimate.
Economic liberalisation was also ongoing at the time of the protests. While, this
liberalisation has contributed to a reduction in poverty, the high rates of
unemployment and inequality had not been affected. The lack of transparency and
corruption within the oil economy also led to a perception amongst the public that
their expectations were reasonable and therefore increased resentment among the
poor. However, the impact these emotions had on the protests is uncertain since
workers‟ protests have remained largely disconnected from the GM.
The resentment that had been created by these broad change processes was given
an outlet after the election because the electoral fraud provided the political
opportunity for opposition forces to protest. Such a visible instance of fraud not only
increased the perception of illegitimacy within the population, but increased the
perception that the rest of society shared the feelings of illegitimacy. This meant
22
people were more likely to perceive an opportunity of success because they thought
they would not be alone in their protests.
Interpretative processes also increased the popularity of the protests, once they had
begun. These processes were a result of actions and events like repression,
corruption allegations, and Montazeri‟s death. The GM was also adept in exploiting
Islamic symbolism, an interpretative process which the Islamic state had previously
controlled. The most important example of this is in their appropriation of the colour
green.
However, there was a major problem for the GM. The post-election protests began
almost in the absence of organisational space due to their spontaneity. When space
failed to be appropriated, protest subsided due to the attribution of threat from a
regime clearly ready to use relentless repression. Given this analysis, revolution,
seemingly a distinct possibility in June 2009 now looks highly unlikely. This is
despite the regional unrest which has so far led to the unseating of three dictators in
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
Aside from the immediate loss of life, there have been a couple of other significant
consequences from this period of popular contention. Firstly, relations between elite
factions have not yet normalised with the reformist leaders under house arrest.
Unless this elite contention is resolved the potential for popular contention will
remain. Secondly, the reliance of the regime on repression has accelerated a
process of militarisation that had begun prior to the 2009 election. This would
generally decrease the chances of opposition success. However, the success of the
IRGC has also increased tensions within the organisation. If these tensions reach
breaking point, then an opportunity may exist for the opposition to form a coalition
with defected IRGC elements, increasing the chances of successful protest and
therefore the likelihood of protests occurring. This will be particularly the case if
perceptions of a worsening economic environment and increasing insecurity in the
job market are exacerbated.
23
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Appendices
Appendix 1: The Islamic Republic of Iran: State structure (National Democratic
Institution, 2010).
28
Appendix 2: Who are Mousavi’s supporters (Kull et al., 2010, p.30)?
Mousavi’s Relative Strong Points of Support
Average % across polls
Age < age25 7points above >age45
Gender Men 5points above women
Education Tertiary education 19points above primary education
Urban/Rural Urban residents 11points above rural residents
Internet use Daily internet users 21points above complete non-users
29