the earth charter and the post- 2105 agenda and sdgs
TRANSCRIPT
The Earth Charter and the Post-
2105 Agenda and SDGs
Equity, Environment, Economics
for a Sustainable Future
Ashok Khosla
Development Alternatives &
International Resource Panel
Mother Earth: Our ONLY Home
=> 40% fresh water deficit
by 2030
3 billion middle class consumers
by 2030
=> 3o C rise in temperature
by 2050
=> 140 billion tons of resources per yearby 2050
100 trillion dollar economy
by 2030
=> 4+ billion NOT middle class
by 2030
$15 Trillion
$30 T
$51 T
1970
1990
2010
$100 Tr
Source: Graph by WRI. Data from United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service
Global GDP 1970-2030(2005 US $)
2030
(projected)
Unsustainable Resource Management:
A Major Challenge to Our Future
Sustainable Natural Resource Management:
An Opportunity for Prosperity
Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band
represents an equal fifth
of the world’s people
People Income
Sharing of Today’s Global Income
UNDP, 1991
Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band
represents an equal fifth
of the world’s people
People Income
Sharing of Today’s Global Income
Overconsumption
UNDP, 1991
Affluence
1 Week’s Food for a Family, as in Europe: $ 342 (2005)
Peter Menzel
Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band
represents an equal fifth
of the world’s people
People Income
Sharing of Today’s Global Income
Affluenza!
UNDP, 1991
Chemical Intensive Agriculture
… The Countryside …
Materials
Waste Management
Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band
represents an equal fifth
of the world’s people
People Income
Sharing of Today’s Global Income
Underconsumption
UNDP, 1991
Poverty . . .
2000 Million Have
NO Toilets2500 Million Have
No Modern Energy
1 Week’s Food for a Family, as in Chad: $ 1.37 (2005)Peter Menzel
Development Alternatives
•In a Permanent Trap
• Family Size
•Resource Destruction
•No Income •No Markets•Poverty
Richest fifth
Poorest fifth
85%
8%
3.5%
2%
1.5%
Each horizontal band
represents an equal fifth
of the world’s people
People Income
Sharing of Today’s Global Income
Povertitis!!
S
Human wellbeing
20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems
60 % loss dilemmaClimate
550/450/350
dilemma
Surprise
99/1 dilemma
The Multi-Pronged
Squeeze on Humanity
SRC
PEAK OIL
New
Climate Change
Extinction of Species
More and More Financial Crises . . .
MANAGING AND CONSERVING THE NATURAL
RESOURCE BASE FOR SUSTAINED
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
A reflection from the IRP on the SDGs: Aimed at decoupling economic growth
from escalating resource use and environmental degradation
About the International Resource Panel
(IRP)
Established in 2007
Our first
Decoupling (2011) Report showed that
only relative decoupling is
happening. But the global
resource and climate situation
needs absolute decoupling.
Resource Metabolism Grows with Income
GhanaChina
Brazil
South Africa
USA
INDIA
Resources
+
Demographics
MANAGING AND CONSERVING THE NATURAL
RESOURCE BASE FOR SUSTAINED
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
A reflection from the IRP on the SDGs: Aimed at decoupling economic growth
from escalating resource use and environmental degradation
About the International Resource Panel
(IRP)
Established in 2007
Our first
Decoupling (2011) Report showed that
only relative decoupling is
happening. But the global
resource and climate situation
needs absolute decoupling.
Resource Metabolism Grows with Income
GhanaChina
Brazil
South Africa
USA
INDIA
Resources
+
Demographics
Material Consumption in Tons/Year
SERI
(WRI chart using World Bank data, 2012)
ARE WE RUNNING OUT?Price trends of major commodity bundles (real 2005 dollars)
Pri
ce
in
re
al 2
00
5 d
oll
ars
250
200
150
100
50
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Food
Energy
Timber
Fertilizers
Metals and Minerals
WORLD FOOD PRICES - FAO
USD
SPECULATION
WEATHER
EXP. BAN
RIOTS
Footprint
Bio-Capacity
The Ecological
Footprint of any
Economy
Ecological Footprint
2050: ~300%
2000: ~150%
1950: ~40%
1900: ~15%
Ecological Footprint: Ave per Capita (Est)
DA
1800: 3%
Source: UNEP-IRP
So We Need to Use Our Planet’s
Resources More Efficiently
25 50 75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Contraction and Convergence
Total (Global)
Industrial
Countries
Developing
Countries
Ye
ars
>
Our first (2011)
DecouplingReport showed that only
„relative decoupling“ is
happening. But the global
resource and climate
situation needs absolute
decoupling.
Similarities Across the Proposed
Frameworks
• Grounding in MDGs
• Broader focus on human well-being and shared prosperity
• Realising the inter-linkages
• Recognition of new development challenges
• Narrative versus proposed goals and targets/Solution oriented
time
GDP
Environmental Pressure
Relative Decoupling
Absolute Decoupling
Environmental Pressure
Size
(Indexed)
100
Figure 2.2
The Global South typically wants relative decoupling,
and the North should aim at absolute decoupling.
IRP
Agreed MDGs - in 25 Years:
Halve for HALF of the Poor
SDGs to be Agreed –
in 15 Years: for ALL
Eliminate Poverty Altogether
by 2030
by 2015
Systemic Issues
Basic Needs AND Environment
Systemic Problems
Production Systems AND Consumption Patterns
Systemic Solutions
Sustainable Jobs AND Sustained Resources
Global Ramifications
Northern Concerns AND Southern Imperatives
a
Human wellbeing
20/80 dilemma
Ecosystems
60 % loss dilemmaClimate
550/450/350
dilemma
Surprise
99/1 dilemma
The Multi-Pronged
Squeeze on Humanity
SEI
“Sustainable
Development”
. . . it’s all about Human Rights . . .
. . . and Human Rights
can only be possible
if we also have
Human Responsibilities
. . . in other words,
follow the Values
and Principles of
The Earth Charter
Enough for Everyone’s Need …
. . But NOT Enough for Anyone’s
Greed!
Acknowledgements
The material and artwork used in these
slides is taken from numerous sources, to
which I owe deep gratitude. They include: UNEP and the International Resource Panel
Development Alternatives
World Resources Institute
UNDP
Peter Menzel
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Sustainable Europe Research Institute
Global Footprint Network
Earth Charter