the easy way to stop estimating - workshop

© 2012 Proyectalis Gestión de Proyectos S.L. – More at http://slideshare.net/proyectalis

The easy way to stop estimating A guide to reduce waste by dropping the estimation process

Malmö, May 2012


Ángel [email protected]

@angel_m

www.proyectalis.com/en/blog www.linkedin.com/in/angelm www.slideshare.net/proyectalis


Risk Premium


World Agile Conference


World Agile Conference ?


My Pleasure!


Disclaimer…


This is supposed to be a workshop!


Estimation Game

1 Number 3-6 = X 1 number 5-10 = Y


Estimation Game

1 Number 3-6 = X SPRINTS 1 number 5-10 = Y DAYS PER

SPRINT You will throw one dice for every

day You will add up all throws for a

sprint – that’s your Sprint velocity You will build a table with all your

velocities You will add up all velocities –

that’s your final scope delivery size

GO!


Now for some magic…


Bell curve Throughput= X*Y*


Bell curve Throughput= X*Y*

All 6 All 1

Avg. 5 Avg. 2

Avg. 3.5


Bell curve

All 6 All 1

Avg. 5 Avg. 2

Avg. 3.5

Medinilla’s principle of project unfairness

3 Throughput= X*Y*


Success Story: Swedish Company


Exercise number 2: burning man project


Burning Man Project

?= 12.000 Scrum$ / sprint ~20 work units / sprint


Burning Man Project


…..

120 work units (~72.000s$)


Burning Man Project


…..

120 work units (~72.000s$) Buffer size: 12 units(~7.200S$)


Burning Man Project

Estimated Real Left Should be Deviation

20 18 100


…..



Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2


…..



Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 80


…..



Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12


…..



Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 60


…..



Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12


…..



Burning Man Project Estimated Real Left Should be Deviation

20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12



20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

Delay: 0 days V=24 S$=0



20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$



20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$



20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$


Burning Man Project


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$


Burning Man Project


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

We can: - Drop scope (~18pt.)


Burning Man Project


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

We can: - Drop scope (~18pt.) - Give more time (~1sp.)


Burning Man Project


V=20 Delay=-12 (1/2 sp.)

S$=6.000S$

V=10 OMG!

V=15 Delay=-27 (2 sp.)

S$=24.000S$

V=18 Delay=-18 (1 sp.)

S$=12.000S$

We can: - Drop scope (~18pt.) - Give more time (~1sp.) - Add more resources (Brooks law!!)


Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7


…..


+3.000S$


Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1


…..


+3.000S$

+3.000S$


Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

19 19 0 0 0


…..


+3.000S$

+3.000S$


Burning Man Project


20 18 102 100 -2

22 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

25 20 72 60 -12

22 25 47 40 -7

25 28 19 20 +1

19 19 0 0 0


…..


????


Burning Man Project


200 18 102 100 -2

2,2 15 (-5) 92 80 -12

2500 20 72 60 -12

22M. 25 47 40 -7

0,25 28 19 20 +1

2¶/3 19 0 0 0


…..


????


Success Story: German Company


Exercise number 3: The

Fake Burn-Down


The Fake Burn-Down Your Team’s average velocity is 36 Start throwing dices. If you score 1-2-3, it’s a

SMALL story (3 points average). If you score 4-5, it’s a MEDIUM story (6 points average). If you score a 6, it’s a BIG story (12 points average). Write every story down.

When you have more or less enough story points (as you would do in Scrum), commit to some stories and stop throwing.

You’ll do a 12 day sprint (you expect an average of 3 points per day). Throw a dice to find out your velocity for every day.

Build a Burn-down while you progress. Write down the results for every day.

On day 12, no matter what happened, the Sprint is over


12!

3!

6!

6!

6!

The Fake Burn-Down


6.6!

6.6!

6.6!

6.6!

6.6!

12!

3!

6!

6!

6!

The Fake Burn-Down

Σ=33 media de 6.6!


6!

7!

6!

7!

6!

12!

3!

6!

6!

6!

The Fake Burn-Down


7!

7!

7!

7!

7!

12!

3!

6!

6!

6!

The Fake Burn-Down


12!

3!

6!

6!

6!

The Fake Burn-Down It’s not over untill it’s over… But

when it’s over it’s over!

7!

7!

7!

7!

7!


Success Story: French Company


Now some theory…


Estimation is WASTE!


Uncertainty


Estimation is not THIS: Probability

Estimation Value


Estimation is not even THIS: Probability

Estimation Value


Estimation is THIS: Probability

Estimation Value


Estimation is THIS: Probability

Estimation Value

Medinilla’s principle of project unfairness


Accuracy vs. effort Accuracy

Estimation effort


Accuracy vs. effort

Good enough!

50-70% accuracy

100% accuracy Accuracy

Estimation effort


The Random Walk


Gedanken: the perfect P.O.

…..


…..

Gedanken: the perfect P.O.


Histogram


Histogram Average


Histogram

95% SLA

80% SLA

Average


Different kind of stories

T-Shirt size XS – 2 days S – 4 days M – 9 days L – 15 days XL – 22 days


Remember the french?

T-Shirt size S– 1 month M – 3 month L – 6 month


Success Story: Spanish SME

T-Shirt size S – 3 weeks M – 2 months L – 4 months


Next steps:


Go story points (size!!)

1 2 3 5

8 13 20 40


Reduce options

2 5

13


Stop estimating tasks

J-43745

“As a client from hell, I want some idiotic and useless feature so I can give some sense to my fake job’!

Est: 20 25

Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11

BufCount: I I I I I I

Left: 18 16 14 19 16 14 9 6 2 0

Task! Task! Task!

Task! Task!


Stop dividing tasks

J-43745


Est: 20 25

Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11


Left: 18 16 14 19 16 14 9 6 2 0


Open Space option: count by tasks

J-43745


Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11


Task! Task! Task!

Task! Task!


Better option: count by stories

J-43745


Bck: 3/2/11

Sel: 9/2/11

An: 12/2/11

Dsg: 17/2/11

Tst: 19/2/11

Don: 19/2/11



Use histograms to provide SLA’s


Finally: estimate only t-shirt size!! (but still measure for histograms)


Final Thought…

…..


Thank you and Blog it!!!

[email protected]


This presentation is based upon the ideas and work of many people. And while I’ve tried to recognize copyrights and give credit and attribution where possible, I cannot possibly list them all, so if you feel like there’s something that should be added, changed or removed from this presentation, please drop me an e-mail at [email protected]

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/

the easy way to stop estimating - workshop

Business

proyectalis gestin

work units sprint

man project

sprint velocity

buffer size

bell curve throughput

x sprints

exercise number