the ecological economics of canada’s ageing population
DESCRIPTION
The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population. Eric Miller [email protected] Presented Nov 1, 2013 at York University Canadian Society for Ecological Economics Conference. A Conceptual Ecological Economic Demographic Model. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population
Eric [email protected]
Presented Nov 1, 2013 at York UniversityCanadian Society for Ecological Economics Conference
![Page 2: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A Conceptual Ecological Economic Demographic Model
We should seek to model the means to an efficient, just, and sustainable Canada:
∴ ime
Demographics helps to deepen our understanding of life expectancy, the characteristics and size of the population, and demographic patterns of affluence
(Inspired by NEF, 2012)
![Page 3: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
An Empirical Model for Canada
![Page 4: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Current patterns as model inputs (StatCan, 2012)
Lifetime Fertility Rate = 1.678Total emigrants = 52,409 Total immigrants = 258,290Average Life Expectancy at birth:M = 78.6yrs, F = 82.7yrs
![Page 5: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Possible futures as assumptions (StatCan, 2010)
Population Scenario
Lifetime Fertility Immigration Rate
Gain in Average Life Expectancy at Birth
1: Low growth Falls to 1.5 Lower (0.6% / yr) Slower than historic trends (15 years slower)
2. Medium growth Stays at 1.7 Current (0.8% / yr) Historic trends(+7M, +5.7F by 2043)
3: High growth Rises to 1.9 Higher (0.9% / yr) Faster than historictrends (7 years earlier)
4: Stabilization Stays at 1.7 Equals migration (0.15%) Historic trends
![Page 6: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Results of Canadian demographic scenarios
Scenarios: 1=Low, 2=Med, 3=High, 4=Stabilization
![Page 7: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
The Hypothesis of Apocalyptic Demography
“Today, there are 4.2 working-aged Canadians for every senior citizen, making contributions to cover retirees' pensions and health care. By 2031, that ratio will be cut in half. The tax base will shrink, growth will slow and labour shortages will become even more dire...”
![Page 8: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Demographic (age-based) dependency
Medium growth scenario
![Page 9: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Labour market dependency
Medium growth scenario
![Page 10: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
What about unpaid work?
![Page 11: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Effects of population growth on dependency
Growth scenarios: 1 = Low, 2 = Medium based on trend of last 20 years, 3 = HighStabilization: 4 = Medium trend with balanced migration, 5 = Same with “delayed retirement”
__154=Value in 1971___________________________________________
__89=Value in 1971____________________________________________
![Page 12: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Understanding the dynamics of Canadian housing
• Demographics Household formation & dissolution
• Macro-economics Rates of change in household formation
• Affluence Demand for number of dwellings, and value
• Financial system Cost of financing, risk tolerance of lenders
• Expectations of capital gains Willingness to inflate prices
• Cohort norms Value of strategic locations
Results impact the stock of residential dwellings and market value their land
![Page 13: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
An empirical Canadian housing model
![Page 14: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Dynamics of residential land value
1=Actual total Res Capital Stock 2=Actual Res structures 3=Actual Res land Modelled values: 4=Predicted Res structures 5=Predicted Res land
$M CAD
![Page 15: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Dynamics of investment in residential structures
1=Actual rate of gross investment in Res Capital Stock 2=Modelled rate (of #1)3=Modelled rate of invest from renovations to existing structures; 4=Other5=Modelled rate of investment from new structures
AnnualRate
![Page 16: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Speculating about future housing dynamics
Growth scenarios: 1 = Low, 2 = Medium based on trend of last 20 years, 3 = HighStabilization: 4 = Medium trend with balanced migration, 5 = Same with “delayed retirement”
(all scenarios assume 2010 patterns of household headship rates)
![Page 17: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Concluding messages
• Demographics should play an important role in EE
• Beware of apocalyptic demography in Canada as a new rationale for austerity and growth for the sake of growth
• Systems dynamics modelling useful for modelling residential housing market (structures and land value)
• Understanding housing will help to understand an important component of life satisfaction during working years and into retirement, and the future ecological implications of growth in households, dwellings per household, and value per dwelling
![Page 18: The Ecological Economics of Canada’s Ageing Population](https://reader035.vdocument.in/reader035/viewer/2022062323/56815f60550346895dce47d0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
References cited
• Globe and Mail. 2012. The great expansion. Saturday May 4. Section F.
• New Economics Foundation. 2012. Happy Planet Index: 2012 Report. A global index of sustainable well-being.
All other Statistics Canada data is from CANSIM