the economic impact of current investment trends in ......failure to act: the economic impact of...

FAiluRE to ACt The economic impacT of current Investment trends Insurface TransporTaTion infrasTrucTure

This report was prepared for the American Society of Civil Engineers by Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

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Copyright © 2011 by the American Society of Civil Engineers. All Rights Reserved.

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ThisreportseekstoprovideanobjectiveanalysisoftheeconomicimplicationsoftheUnitedStates’continuedunderinvestmentininfrastructure.The Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,publishedeveryfouryearsbytheAmericanSocietyofCivilEngineers,gradesthecurrentstateof15nationalinfrastructurecategoriesonascalefromAthroughDforgradationsofexcellenttopoor,andFforfailing.Thisreportanswersthequestion“Sowhat?”Intermsofeconomicperformance,whatdoesaDmean?WhatdoesanFmean?

Thisreportispartofaprojectthatisstructuredaroundfourreportstoassessimplicationsfortheproductivityofindustries,nationalcompetitiveness,andeffectsonhouse-holdsgiventhepresenttrendsofinfrastructureinvestment.Together,thesereportscover9ofthe15categoriesaddressedbytheASCEReport Card for America’s Infrastructure.

Thisreportonsurfacetransportationencompasseshighways,bridges,rail,andtran-sit.Subsequentreportswilladdresswaterandwastewaterdeliveryandtreatment,energytransmission,andairportsandmarineports.Thus,whenreadingthisreport,itisimportanttobearinmindthattheimpactsitdiscussesexcludeanyeconomicimpactsfromcontinuingcurrentinvestmenttrendsforwater,waste-water,energy,andairportandmarineportinfrastructure.

★|figures and tables

★|Preface

Figures1 NationalFundingGapbyMode

2 CarandTruckReliabilityCosts:Highway

3 ChangeinU.S.Jobsin2040AttributabletoTransportationInfrastructureDeficiencies

4 PatternofReassignmentsfromCongestedInterstates,2010–2040

5 DevelopmentofDeficienciesbyMode

Tables

1 TheMountingCumulativeCostofDeficientandDeterioratingSurfaceInfrastructureImposedonAmericans

2 SummaryofImpactsonEconomicPerformanceOverTime

3 PavementDeficienciesforCarsandTrucksbyFacilityType,2010

4 CumulativeTravelTimeandReliabilityCostsDuetoCongestion,2010–2040

5 Top20CountriesandEconomiesRankedbytheQualityofRoadsandRailroads

6 U.S.CommodityExportReductionsinDollars,2020&2040

7 U.S.CommodityExportReductionsbyPercentage,2020&2040

8 CongestionandPavementDeficiencybyRegion,2010

9 PassengerModeReliancebyRegion,2010

10 DevelopmentofDeficienciesbyMode

11 TransitModeBreakdownofPercentVMTOperatingonDeficienciesOverTimeGivenCurrentFundingLevels

12 TotalCostsDuetoDeficientandDeterioratingInfrastructure

13 MaintenanceNeedsinBillionsofConstant2010Dollars

14 U.S.DemographicChange,2010–2040

Failure to Act: The Economic Impact of Current Investment Trends in Surface Transportation 3

eXecutiVe suMMarYThenation’ssurfacetransportationinfrastruc-tureincludesthecriticalhighways,bridges,railroads,andtransitsystemsthatenablepeopleandgoodstoaccessthemarkets,services,andinputsofproductionessentialtoAmerica’seconomicvitality.Formanyyears,thenation’ssurfacetransportationinfrastructurehasbeendeteriorating.Yetbecausethisdeteriorationhasbeendiffusedthroughoutthenation,andhasoccurredgraduallyovertime,itstruecostsandeconomicimpactsarenotalwaysimmediatelyapparent.Inpractice,thetransportationfund-ingthatisappropriatedisspentonamixtureofsystemexpansionandpreservationprojects.Althoughtheseallocationshaveoftenbeensuf-ficienttoavoidtheimminentfailureofkeyfacilities,thecontinueddeteriorationleavesasignificantandmountingburdenontheU.S.economy.Thisburdenwillbeexploredfurtherinthisreport.

DeterioratingconditionsandperformanceimposecostsonAmericanhouseholdsandbusi-nessesinanumberofways.Facilitiesinpoorconditionleadtoincreasesinoperatingcostsfortrucks,cars,andrailvehicles.Additionalcostsincludedamagetovehiclesfromdeterioratedroadwaysurfaces,impositionofbothadditionalmilestraveled,timeexpendedtoavoidunus-ableorheavilycongestedroadwaysorduetothebreakdownoftransitvehicles,andtheaddedcostofrepairingfacilitiesaftertheyhavedeterioratedasopposedtopreservingthemingoodcondi-tion.Inaddition,increasedcongestiondecreasesthereliabilityoftransportationfacilities,mean-ingthattravelersareforcedtoallotmoretimefortripstoassureon-timearrivals(andforfreightvehicles,on-timedelivery).Moreover,itincreasesenvironmentalandsafetycostsbyexposingmoretravelerstosubstandardtravelconditionsandrequiringvehiclestooperateatlessefficientlev-els.Asconditionscontinuetodeteriorateover

time,theywillincreasinglydetractfromtheabil-ityofAmericanhouseholdsandbusinessestobeproductiveandprosperousatworkandathome.

Thisreportisabouttheeffectthatsurfacetransportationdeficiencieshave,andwillcontinuetohave,onU.S.economicperformance.Forthepurposeofthisreport,theterm“defi-ciency”isdefinedastheextenttowhichroads,bridges,andtransitservicesfallbelowstandardsdefinedbytheU.S.DepartmentofTranspor-tationas“minimumtolerableconditions”(forroadsandbridges)and“stateofgoodrepair”fortransit1.Thesestandardsaresubstantiallylowerthanidealconditions,suchas“free-flow2,”thatareusedbysomeresearchersasthebasisforhighwayanalysis.Thisreportisabouttheeffectthesedeficiencieshave,andwillcontinuetohave,onU.S.economicperformance.

In2010,itwasestimatedthatdeficienciesinAmerica’ssurfacetransportationsystemscosthouseholdsandbusinessesnearly$130billion.Thisincludedapproximately$97billioninvehicleoperatingcosts,$32billionintraveltimedelays,$1.2billioninsafetycostsand$590millioninenvironmentalcosts.

In2040,America’sprojectedinfrastructuredeficienciesinatrendsextendedscenarioareexpectedtocostthenationaleconomymorethan400,000jobs.Approximately1.3millionmorejobscouldexistinkeyknowledge-basedandtechnology-relatedeconomicsectorsifsufficienttransportationinfrastructureweremain-tained.Theselossesarebalancedagainstalmost900,000additionaljobsprojectedintradition-allylower-payingservicesectorsoftheeconomythatwouldbenefitbydeficienttransportation(suchasautorepairservices)orbydecliningproductivityindomesticservicerelatedsectors(suchastruckdrivingandretailtrade).

Ifpresenttrendscontinue,by2020theannualcostsimposedontheU.S.economyby


deteriorating infrastructure will increase by 82% to $210 billion, and by 2040 the costs will have increased by 351% to $520 billion (with cumulative costs mounting to $912 billion and $2.9 trillion by 2020 and 2040, respectively). Table 1 summarizes the economic and societal costs of today’s deficien-cies, and how the present values of these costs are expected to accumulate by 2040. Table 2 provides a summary of impacts these costs have on eco-nomic performance today, and how these impacts are expected to increase over time.

CostofDefiCienCies

Performance area in 2010 by 2020 by 2040

Pavement and Bridge Conditions $10 $58 $651

Highway Congestion $27 $276 $1,272

Rail Transit Conditions $41 $171 $370

Bus Transit Conditions $49 $398 $659

Inter-City Rail Conditions $2 $10 $20

totALCosttosYsteMUseRs $130 $912 $2,972

*Present value of cost stream in billions of constant 2010 Dollars

SOURCE EDR Group analysis using Transportation Economic Impact System (TREDIS), 2011 NOTE Totals may not add due to rounding.

table 2★summaryofimpactsoneconomicPerformanceovertime(billions of 2010 dollars)

cumulative cumulative

imPact of Deficiencies imPact by 2020 imPact by 2040

Personal Income –$930 –$3,135

US Value Added (Impact on GDP) –$897 –$2,662

SOURCE LIFT/INFORUM model, University of Maryland. Calculations by University of Maryland using the personal consumption expenditure deflator. Income loss exceeds GDP because the deterioration of infrastructure has a disproportionately negative effect on high-wage industry sectors.

The avoidable transportation costs that hinder the nation’s economy are imposed primarily by pavement and bridge conditions, highway con-gestion, and transit and train vehicle conditions that are operating well below minimum tolerable levels for the level of traffic they carry. If the nation’s infrastructure were free of deficient conditions in pavement, bridges, transit vehi-cles, and track and transit facilities, Americans would earn more personal income and industry would be more productive, as demonstrated by the gross domestic product (value added) that

table1★theMountingCumulativeCostofDeficientandDeterioratingsurfaceinfrastructureimposedonAmericans*


willbelostifsurfacetransportationinfrastruc-tureisnotbroughtuptoastandardof“minimumtolerableconditions.”Asof2010,thelossofGDPapproached$125billionduetodeficientsurfacetransportationinfrastructure.TheexpectedlossesinGDPandpersonalincomethrough2040aredis-playedinTable2.

AcrosstheU.S.,regionsareaffecteddifferentlybydeficientanddeterioratinginfrastructure.Themostaffectedregionsarethosewiththelargestconcentrationsofurbanareas,becauseurbanhigh-ways,bridgesandtransitsystemsareinworseconditiontodaythanruralfacilities.Peakcommut-ingpatternsalsoplacelargerburdensonurbancapacities.However,becausethenationissodepen-dentontheInterstateHighwaySystem,impactsoninterstateperformanceinsomeregionsorareatypesarefeltthroughoutthenation.Nationally,forhighwaysandtransit,630millionvehiclehourstraveledwerelostduetocongestionin2010.Thistotalisexpectedtotripleto1.8billionhoursby2020andfurtherincreaseto6.2billionhoursin2040.3Thesevehiclehoursunderstatepersonhoursandunderscoretheseverityofthelossinproductivity.

ThespecificeconomicimplicationsofthefurtherdeteriorationoftheU.S.nationalsurfacetransportationsystemareasfollows:

«« Deficient surface transportation infrastruc-ture will cost Americans nearly $3 trillion by 2040,asshowninTable1,whichrepre-sentsmorethan$1.1trillioninaddedbusinessexpensesandnearly$1.9trillionfromhouse-holdbudgets.

«« This cost to business will reduce the productivity and competitiveness of American firmsrelativetoglobalcompetitors.Increasedcumulativecosttobusinesseswillreach$430billionby2020.Businesseswillhavetodivertincreasingportionsofearnedincometopayfortransportationdelaysandvehiclerepairs,drainingmoneythatwouldotherwisebeinvestedininnovationandexpansion.

««Households will be forced to forgo discre-tionary purchasessuchasvacations,cultural

events,educationalopportunities,andrestau-rantmeals,reducehealthrelatedpurchasesalongwithotherexpendituresthataffectqualityoflife,inordertopaytransportationcoststhatcouldbeavoidedifinfrastructurewerebuilttosufficientlevels.Increasedcumulativecoststohouseholdswillbe$482billionin2020.

«« The U.S. will lose jobs in high value, high-pay-ing services and manufacturing industries.Overall,thiswillresultinemployeeincomein2040thatis$252billionlessthanwouldbethecaseinatransportation-sufficienteconomy.

Ingeneralthreedistinctforcesareprojectedtoaffectemployment:

nFirst,anegativeimpactisduetolargercostsoftransportationservicesintermsoftimeexpendedandvehiclecosts.Thesecostsabsorbmoneyfrombusinessesandhouseholdsthatwouldotherwisebedirectedtoinvestment,innovationand“qualityoflifepurchases.”Thus,notonlywillbusinessandpersonalincomebelower,butmoreofthatincomewillneedtobedivertedtotransportationrelatedcosts.Thisdynamicwillcreatelowerdemandinkeyeconomicsectorsassociatedwithbusi-nessinvestmentsforexpansionandresearchanddevelopment,andinconsumersectors.

nSecond,theimpactofdecliningbusinessproductivity,duetoinefficientsurfacetransportation,tendstopushupemploy-ment,evenifincomeisdeclining.Productivitydeteriorateswithinfrastructuredegradation,somoreresourcesarewastedineachsector.Inotherwords,itmaytaketwojobstocompletethetasksthatonejobcouldhandlewithoutdelaysduetoworseningsurfacetransportationinfrastructure.

nThird,relatedtoproductivityeffects,degrad-ingsurfacetransportationconditionswillgeneratejobstoaddressproblemscreatedbyworseningconditionsinsectorssuchastransportationservicesandautomobilerepairservices.


«« Overall job losses are mitigated by more people working for less money and less productivelyduetothediminishedeffec-tivenessoftheU.S.surfacetransportationsystem.Recastingthe2020and2040initialjobimpactsbasedonincomeandproductivitylostreducesworkereffectivenessbyanaddi-tional27%(another234,000jobs).By2040,thisdrainonwagesandproductivityimpliesanadditional115%effectifincomeandpro-ductivitywerestable(another470,000jobs).

«« By 2040 the cost of infrastructure deficien-cies are expected to result in the U.S. losing more than $72 billion in foreign exportsincomparisonwiththelevelofexportsfromatransportation-sufficientU.S.economy.TheseexportsarelostduetolostproductivityandthehighercostsofAmericangoodsandservices,relativetocompetingproductpricesfromaroundtheglobe.

approach and methodologyIntheresearchforthisreport,establishingfuturetransportationconditionsunderpresenttrendsweremodelsusedbytheFederalHigh-wayAdministration(FHWA)andtheFederalTransitAdministration(FTA)todeterminetransportationsufficiency,costs,conditionsandperformance,andwerebuttressedbyaliteraturereview.Forthedetailsofthemethodsused,seetheappendix.

Theoverallneedsanddeficienciesfoundwerecomparedagainsttheinvestmenttrendsreportedinfederalhighwaystatistics,theU.S.DepartmentofTransportation(USDOT)2008ConditionsandPerformanceReport,andthe2007NationalSurfaceTransportationPol-icyandRevenueStudyCommissionreportforconsistencyandreasonableness,allowingfordifferentdatayearsandsources.Theanalysispresentedinthisreportisintendedtodescribetheimplicationsofunmetneedsinnationaleconomicterms,andisnotofferedasasubstituteformorespecificnational,state,ormetropoli-tan-levelanalysisofneedsanddeficienciesforplanningandprogrammingpurposes.

objective and limits of This studyThepurposeofthisstudyislimitedtopresent-ingtheeconomicconsequencesofcontinuinginvestmentinAmerica’ssurfacetransportationinfrastructureonatrends-extendedbasis.Itisnotintendedtoproposeorimplyprescriptivepolicychanges.Inrecentyears,manysolutionshavebeenofferedtoaddressthedeterioratingconditionandperformanceofAmerica’ssurfacetransportationinfrastructure.Examplesincludechangingthemixofinvestmentbetweenfixed-railtransitandroadways,expanding“rubbertire”transit(e.g.,busand/orvan),implementingvariabletimetollingpoliciestolimitpeakhourhighwaytraffic,demandmanagementstrate-giestoshiftthetimeoftravelorotherwiselimitdemandforthetransportationsystem,leveragingbroadbandtechnologytoexpandtelecommut-ingandreducecommutingtraffic,changinglanduseregulationstogeneratedensitiesandmixesoflandusesthatreducetransportationdemand,andexpandingthenation’shighwaynetwork.ThisanalysisisintendedtoexplaintherelationshipbetweenthefailingsurfacetransportationinfrastructureanditseffectontheU.S.economy.Itisclearthatsomecombinationoftheseorothersolutionsisnecessaryonmultistate,regional,andnationallevelstoaddressthewell-documentedneeds.

Moreover,becausethisstudy’spurposeistoaddresstheconsequencesofcurrentinvestmenttrends,itdoesnotincludethepotentialeconomicimpactsofconstructionthatwouldberequiredto,atleastinpart,addressidentifiedsurfacetranspor-tationinfrastructuredeficiencies.Recentstudieshaveassertedthatevery$1billioninvestedinhigh-wayconstructiongeneratesapproximately30,000temporaryjobsinthenationaleconomy,andspendingfortransitprojectsgenerates24,000–41,000temporaryjobs,dependingongeographyandblendofspendingbetweennewconstruc-tion,maintenance,andvehiclereplacement.4Ananalysisthatincludestheeconomicimpactsofconstructionandhownewinvestmentwillaffecteconomicperformancewillvarydependingonthemixofsolutionsthatareimplemented.


introduction1

theanalysispresentedinthisreportillustrateshowdifferenttypes

ofsurfacetransportationinfrastructuredeficienciesaffectthe

u.s.economy,andwillcontinuetodosointhefuture.thisreport

highlightsnotonlyhowdeficientsurfacetransportationsystems

imposecostsonhouseholdsandbusinessesbutalsohowthesecosts

relatetotheproductivityandcompetitivenessofindustries,aswell

astheprosperityofhouseholds.

thebasesforthisreport’seconomicanalysisincludedocu-

mentationofsurfacetransportationdeficienciesin2010,recent

investmenttrendsinsurfacetransportationinfrastructure,and

extendingthesetrendsto2040.theneedtomaintaintheexist-

ingsurfacetransportationsystem,toservetheneedsofachanging

populationandindustrycompositioninthenext30years,andthe

projectedinvestmentstoaccomplishallthesetasks;havehighly

significantimplicationsforindustry’scompetitivenessandperfor-

mance,aswellasstandardsoflivingforamericanhouseholds.


Themainsectionsofthisreportcoversixkeytopics:

«« the shortfall of infrastructure investment;

«« the implications of this shortfall for national economic performance;

«« regional transportation and economic implications;

«« Implications of lower speeds on interstate highways;

«« funding gaps by mode; and

«« Implications of maintenance funding shortfalls.

Thefinalsectionsincludeconclusionsandadiscussionoffutureresearchneeds.Anappen-dixexplainsthesourcesandmethodologyusedindetail.

objective and limits of This studyThepurposeofthisstudyislimitedtopresent-ingtheeconomicconsequencesofcontinuinginvestmentinAmerica’ssurfacetransportationinfrastructureonatrends-extendedbasis.Itisnotintendedtoproposeorimplyprescriptivepolicychanges.Inrecentyears,manysolutionshavebeenproposedtoaddresstheperceivedworseningofAmerica’sinfrastructure.Solutions

putforwardhaveincludedchangingthemixofinvestmentbetweenfixed-railtransitandroadways,expanding“rubbertire”transit(e.g.,busand/orvan),implantingvariabletimetoll-ingpoliciestolimitpeakhourhighwaytraffic,leveragingbroadbandtechnologytoexpandtelecommutingandreducecommutingtraf-fic,changinglanduseregulationsandtherebygeneratingdensitiesandtransit-orienteddevel-opment,andprudentlyexpandingourhighwaynetwork.Thisanalysisdemonstratesthatthenation’ssurfacetransportationinfrastructureisfailingtosustaintheeconomyandacombina-tionoftheseorothersolutionsarenecessaryonmultistate,regionalandnationallevels.

Moreover,becauseourpurposeinthisstudyistoaddresstheconsequencesofcurrentinvest-menttrends,thisstudydoesnotincludethepotentialeconomicimpactsofconstructionthatwouldberequiredto,atleastinpart,addressidentifiedsurfaceinfrastructuredeficiencies.Recentstudies,forexample,haveassertedthatevery$1billioninvestedinhighwayconstruc-tiongeneratesapproximately30,000temporaryjobsinthenationaleconomy,andspendingfortransitprojectsgenerates24,000–41,000temporaryjobs,dependingongeographyandtheblendofspendingbetweennewconstruc-tion,maintenanceandvehiclereplacement.5Thefocusofthisstudyoncurrenttrendsmeansthatspendingforsurfacetransporta-tioninfrastructureaboveordifferentthanthesetrendsiseffectivelyzero.Thisstatementisnotintendedtodisregardtheeconomicimpactsofconstructingnewsurfacetransportationinfrastructure.Ananalysisthatincludestheeconomicimpactsofconstructionandhownewinvestmentwillaffecteconomicperformancewillvarydependingonthemixofsolutionsthatareimplemented.

This analysis demonstrates that the nation’s surface transportation infrastructure is failing to sustain the economy and a combination of these or other solutions are necessary on multistate, regional and national levels.


investmentofroughly$220billionannually(2010dollars)is

neededfrom2010to2040,basedonunitcosts,minimumtolerable

conditions,6anddatasourcesconsistentwithcurrentapplication

offederalhighway,bridge,andtransitinvestmentmodels.this

breaksdowntoanaverageinvestmentofapproximately$196

billionperyearforhighwaypavementsandbridges,including$161

billionforcongestionmitigation7and$35billionforpreservation

ofexistingfacilities.inaddition,$25billionperyearintransit

capitalinfrastructureinvestment(includingrollingstockaswell

astrackage,terminals,androadwaysforaccess)isneeded.

approximately37%ofthishighwayandbridgeinvestmentand

25%ofthistransitinvestmentwillbeneededsimplytoresolve

existingdeficienciesofalmost$74billionthatarealreadyaffecting

theu.s.economy.theremainderisneededtopreventdeficiencies

fromrecurringorgettingworseovertime.Figure1showsthe

fundinggapbyhighway,bridgeandtransitprogramstoday,in

2020andin2040.8asillustratedinFigure1,thefundinggapsfor

highwaysandtransitareexpectedtoincreasethrough2040,and

theincreaseinthetransitgapwillbemorepronouncedthanthe

highwaygap.ifpresenttrendscontinue,thefundinggapforrail

andbustransit,seenas41%in2010,isexpectedtoincreaseto55%

by2040.theexpectedgapinhighwayfunding,48%in2010,is

expectedtoincreaseto54%by2040(seeFigure1fordatasources.)

tHe infrastructure sHortfall2


Figure1★nationalFundingGapbyMode

sources EDRGroupanalysisusing2010USDOTHighwayEconomicRequirementsSystemforStates(HERS-ST)and2008HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS)data,USDOTTransitEconomicRequirementsModel(TERM),and2010NationalTransitDatabase.

note Dollarsandpercentagesrepresentcumulativecapitalfundingandexpectedgapsbasedonpresenttrends($billions2010).

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

% Unfunded

a

Highway 2040

Highway 2020

Highway 2010

Transit 2040

Transit 2020

Transit 2010

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

n%Fundedn%Unfunded

Thecostsofdeterioratinginfrastructurearemeasuredintermsofvehiclemilestraveled(VMT)subjecttodeficientpavementandbridgeconditions,thepercentageofvehiclemilesandhoursexperiencingcongestion,andthepercentageoftransitrevenuemilestraveledoninfrastructure(includingtracksandstructures,systemsstationsandvehicles)thatareknowntobeinlessthanastateofgoodrepair(considered“marginal”or“poor”ratingsintheTransitEconomicRequirements,TERM,model).

DeficientpavementimposessignificantcostsontheU.S.economyandwillcontinuetodosounlesstheU.S.isabletofullyclearitsbacklogofunmetpavementpreservationneeds.UnfundedneedsarepassedontoAmerica’sbusinesses

andhouseholds.Overall,31%ofthenation’svehiclemilesoftravelusedeficientpavement,resultinginhighervehicleoperatingcostsandlowersafetravelspeedsforallvehicles,andcreatingthepotentialfordamagedgoodsmovedbytruck,orlongerroutingsfortrucksincaseswheretrucksmustbedetouredduetopavementweightrestrictions.Pavementdeficienciesaffect38%ofvehiclemilestraveledoninterstatesand30%VMTonnon-interstatefunctionalclasses(arterials,collectors,etc).Deficientpavementismoreofaprobleminurbanthanruralareas,with47%ofurbaninterstateVMTexperiencingdeficientpavementand15%ofruralinterstates.Table3presentsasnapshotofcurrentconditions,showingthedegreetowhichcarsandtruckson

$11 billion

$123 billion

$344 billion

$70 billion

$754 billion

$2,743 billion

$8 billion

$90 billion

$416 billion

$63 billion

$756 billion

$3,248 billion


% vmT on

FaciliTy Type DeFicienT pavemenT

Urban Freeway 46%

Urban Non-Freeway 37%

Rural Freeway 14%

Rural Non-Freeway 10%

source EDRGroupAnalysisusing2010USDOTHighwayEconomicRequirementsSystemforStates(HERS-ST)and2008HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS)data

Table4★cumulativetraveltime&reliabilitycostsDuetocongestion,2010-2040 (billions of 2010 dollars)

vehicle Type 2010 2020 2040

Cars $4.1 $39.4 $175

Trucks $7.5 $69.6 $165

source EDRGroupanalysisusingTransportationRegionalEconomicImpactSystem(TREDIS),2011

Table3★PavementDeficienciesforcarsandtrucksbyFacilitytype,2010 (percent of VMT on deficient pavement or bridges)


Figure2★carandtruckreliabilitycosts:Highway(billions of 2010 dollars)

source EDRGroupusingTransportationEconomicImpactSystem(TREDIS),2011.

$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325 $350 $375 $400

B

A

2040

2020

2010

nCarsnTrucks

differentfacilitytypesareaffectedbytoday’spavementdeficiencies.

Inadditiontodeficientpavements,18%ofthenation’svehiclemilesoftraveloccuronroadswithoutsufficientcapacitytocarrycurrenttrafficlevels.Congestionisconsideredpartoftheimpactofinfrastructuredeteriorationbecauseitresultsfromdesignsthatwereadequateforpastlevelsoftrafficbutcannolongersupporttheintendedlevelofservice.Congestionaffectsboththespeedandreliabilityofhighwaysforcarsandtrucks,imposingthecostsofadditionaltraveltime,higheroperatingcostsduetooperatingcarsandtrucksinstop-goconditions,andtheinterruptioninbusinessoperationsduetolessreliableoveralltraveltimes.(Forexample,morecongestedroadsaremorelikelytobesusceptibletounpredictablerecurringcongestionpeaks,

aremorelikelytohavecrashes,andarelikelytohavemuchlongerdelayswhencrashorweatherincidentscausedelay.)Approximately34%ofinterstateVMTand12%ofarterialVMThavedeficientcapacitytoday.Morethan40%ofurbaninterstatesexperiencecapacitydeficiencies,whereasonly6%ofruralinterstatesexperiencethisproblem.

CongestiononurbaninterstatesisthemostsignificantandfastestgrowingsourceoftransportationinefficiencyonAmerica’ssurfacetransportationsystem,andisexpectedtoimposesignificantlygreatercostsinthefuturethanitdoestoday.Table4andFigure2showhowcongestiononurbanandruralfacilitiesresultsintraveltimeandreliabilitycosts9todayandhowthesecostsareexpectedtogrowinthefuture.


Wages, Value added, industrialoutPut, and Jobs3

By2040,america’sdeterioratingsurfacetransportation

infrastructureisexpectedtocostthenation’seconomymorethan

400,000jobs.althoughinfrastructuredeficiencycreatesjobs

insectorssuchasautoandbusrepair,retailsalesofgasoline,

servicesandpartspurchasedduetothedeficienciesanddecreased

productivityperworker,criticaljobopportunitiesarelostinhighly

skilledandwell-compensatednontransportationsectorsthroughout

theeconomy.thesectorslosingthemostemploymentinclude

high-valueprofessional,businessandmedicalsectors,aswellas

sectorssuchasrestaurants,entertainmentandotheramenities,

whichmustbeforgonebyhouseholdswhenalargershareof

thehouseholdbudgetmustgotowardtransportation.Figure3

showsthoseindustriesinwhichjobswillbegainedandlosttothe

u.s.economyin2040duetodeficientinfrastructurecompared

with2040conditionsifthesurfacetransportationsystemwas

maintainedtominimumtolerableconditions/stateofgoodrepair.


–1,000,000 –800,000 –600,000 –400,000 –200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000

A

Knowledge Based Industries

Whoelsale Trade

Entertainment

Other Durable Manufacturing

Non-Durable Manufacturing

Other Services

Construction & Utilities

Durable Materials & Products

Natural Reasources

Retail Trade

Automobile Repairs

Transportation Service Providers

SOURCE LIFT/Inforum model, University of Maryland, 2011; and Transportation Economic Impact System (TREDIS) used by EDR Group.

NOtE: Natural resources include mining, agriculture, forestry and fishing. Other durable manufacturing includes electrical and nonelectrical machinery, instruments, and transportation equipment. Nondurable manufacturing includes chemicals, drugs, plastics and synthetics, rubber and leather products, food processing, textiles, apparel, and miscellaneous manufacturing. Entertainment includes restaurants, bars, amusements, and movies. Knowledge-based services include computer and data-processing services, educational services, finance, insurance and real estate, professional services and other business services, and medical services.

Figure 3 ★ Change in U.S. Jobs in 2040 Attributable to Transportation Infrastructure Deficiencies


TheeffectofinfrastructuredeficienciesonAmerica’sjobcompositionhasaprofoundimpactontheeverydaylivesofhouseholdsandfamilies.Thetotalannualincomeforemploy-eesintheknowledge-basedindustriessector(whichlosesthemostjobs)is$2.8trillion,comparedwithannualincomeforemployeesinthetransportationsectorof$471billion.Over-all,industrysectorsgainingjobsasaresultofinfrastructuredeficienciesin2040haveanaverageannualincomelevelof28%lessthantheincomelevelofthosesectorslosingjobs.

ByrequiringAmericanstotakelower-payingjobstosupporttheneedsofdeficientinfrastructure,transportationshortfallshaveasignificanteffectonpersonalincomeforallAmericans.By2040,itisestimatedthatAmericanswillbeearningatotalof$252bil-lionlessthanwouldhavebeenpossibleifallinfrastructurehadbeensufficient.AlthoughAmericanhouseholdsearnlessbecauseofinfrastructuredeficiencies,thesamehouse-holdshavetospendmoreofwhattheydohaveontransportation,insteadofotherhouseholdexpenditures.By2040,Americanhouseholdswillbenotonlyearninglessinincome;theywillalsobespending$54billionmoreontrans-portationcoststhantheywouldwithafullysufficientsystem.

SurfacetransportationdeficiencieslimitthetypesofjobsavailabletoAmericans,andaffecthowproductiveAmericanscanbeintheirwork.Overall,by2040,itisexpectedthatAmericanfirmswillbegenerating$232bil-lionlessinvalueaddedthantheywouldifallsurfacetransportationinfrastructureweresufficient.Thelossofpotentialvalueaddedattributabletodeterioratingsurfaceinfrastruc-tureismostconcentratedintheMid-Atlanticregion,costingroughly$69billion.

international competitivenessWhendeficientinfrastructuremakesU.S.firmslessproductive,theU.S.economyoverallisalsogloballylesscompetitive.Theoperating,reliability,traveltime,safety,andenvironmen-talcostsofadeficienttransportationsystemaffectthecoststructureandcompetitivenessoffirmsoperatingintheU.S.Duetocostsimposedbydeficientinfrastructure,in2020theU.S.economyisexpectedtoexport$28billionlessingoodsthanwouldhavebeenthecasewithsufficientinfrastructure,andin2040exportsareexpectedtobe$72billionless.

TheUnitedStatesranks19thinthequalityofitsroadwaysand18thinthequalityofitsrailinfrastructure,accordingtoa2009–10executiveopinionsurveyfor139countriesconductedbytheWorldEconomicForum(Table5).Maintaining,ifnotimproving,theseconditionswillbeimportantinmaintaining(orimproving)thenation’soverallexportposition.

Withdeterioratingsurfacetransporta-tioninfrastructure,UnitedStatesexportsofproductsandserviceswillfaceelevatedpricepressuresintwoways:

1.ExportingfirmsdirectlyexperiencehighertransportationcostswiththeirowntruckfleetforshipmentstotheMexicanandCanadianbordersortoanairportorseaport;and

2.Exportingfirmsabsorbpriceincreasesrelatedtotransportationcostsonsomeportionofintermediatesuppliesthatarrivebytruckandgointoafinalproduct.Thoseintermediatesuppliesmaybedomesticallyproduced,ortheymaybeforeignimportsthatmustincuraland-bridgingcostfromanairportorseaport,orfromtheCanadianorMexicanborders.

Iftheconditionofsurfacetransporta-tiondoesnotstabilizeatcurrentlevels,79of93tradablecommoditiesareexpectedto


experiencelowerexporttransactionsin2020and2040.Table6showsthe10commoditiesineachyearthatwilllosetheexportsalesexpectedundercurrentconditions.

Thelargestdollarexportlossesbycom-modityaretheresultofboththescaleofprojectedexportproductionandtheexpectedimpactfromdeficientsurfacetransportation.Transportationdeficienciesaffecttheproductionprocessbyincreasingcostsofreceivinggoods.Italsomakesaccesstomarketsmoreexpensive,andthereforelesscompetitive,includingmarketreachtoCanadaandMexico,andinsurfaceaccesstoairportsandseaports.Inaddition,somelargeknowledge-basedactivities(suchasfinanceandinsurance)thatexportservicesabroad,accountforasizabledollarloss.

Thetotalnationalexportvaluelostis$28billionin2020and$72billionin2040—rela-tivetotheexpectedbasecaseeconomiesinthoseyears.U.S.commoditiesthatlosethelargestproportionoftheirexportsareshowninTable7.Thetableshowscommoditiesirrespectiveofthevolumeofexports(thatdimensioniscapturedinTable6),andillus-tratesthepercentofimpactpercommodity.

In2020,the10commoditiesthatareexpectedtolosethehighestlevelsofexport

dollarsaccountfor53%oftheexportvaluelostbytheaggregated79commoditiesand52%in2040.Moreover,manyexportsshownonthe2020and2040tables,bothintermsofpercentdeclinesanddollarlosses,arekeytechnologysectorsthatdrivenationalinnovation.Theseincludemachinery,communicationsequipment,medicaldevices,transportationequipment,aero-space,otherinstrumentsandchemicals.

innovative surface Transportation infrastructure investmentsThisreportfocusesontheeconomicconse-quencesstemmingfromtheexpectedstateoftheU.S.surfacetransportationsystemunderapres-enttrendinvestmentscenarioandthelevelsofinvestmentsrequiredforattainingminimumtol-erableconditionsforhighwaysandbridgesandthestateofgoodrepairfortransitsystems.How-ever,otheraspectsofinfrastructureinvestmentfalloutsidethisframework.(Formoredetailsonthissection’stopic,seethetechnicalappendix.)Theseincludenewtechnologiesorinnovativeremixesofexistingtechnologies.

Asanexampleofanewtechnology,high-speedrailaddressestheissueofhowinvestmentsinbothnewinfrastructure(tracksandre-rationalizationofexistingrailroadrightsofway)andnewtransportationtechnology(advancedtransportationequipmentandassoci-atedcommunications)cantransformintercitypassengertransportationandtheeconomiesofthemetropolitanareastheyconnect.

MostofAmerica’smajoreconomiccom-petitorsinEuropeandAsia—includingJapan,Germany,France,SpainandGreatBritain,aswellasrapidlydevelopinganddevelopedcountriessuchasChina,Taiwan,andSouthKorea—havealreadyinvestedinandarereap-ingthebenefitsofimprovedcompetitivenessfromtheirintermetropolitanhigh-speedrailsys-tems.Simplycontinuingtoinvestinthenation’sexistingtransportationinfrastructuremaynotbeenoughtomaintainitsstandingintheglobaleconomyinthelongrun.

most of america’s major economic competitors in europe and asia have already invested in and are reaping the benefits of improved competitiveness from their intermetropolitan high-speed rail systems.


Qualityofroads Qualityofrailroads

ranK counTry/economy ranK counTry/economy

1 Singapore 1 Switzerland

2 France 2 Hong Kong

3 Switzerland 3 Japan

4 Hong Kong 4 France

5 Germany 5 Germany

6 United Arab Emirates 6 Singapore

7 Austria 7 Finland

8 Portugal 8 Taiwan, China

9 Denmark 9 Netherlands

10 Oman 10 South Korea

11 Luxembourg 11 Belgium

12 Chile 12 Denmark

13 Finland 13 Spain

14 South Korea 14 Sweden

15 Namibia 15 Austria

16 Taiwan, China 16 Canada

17 Canada 17 Luxembourg

18 Sweden 18 unitedstates

19 unitedstates 19 United Kingdom

20 Spain 20 Malaysia

source WorldEconomicForum,“ExecutiveOpinionSurvey,”asreportedinThe Global Competitiveness Report 2010–2011,©2010WorldEconomicForum.

Table5★top20countriesandeconomiesrankedbythe Qualityofroadsandrailroads


table 6 ★ U.S. Commodity Export Reductions in Dollars, 2020 & 2040 (billions of 2010 dollars)

2020 2040 export export

Commodity dollarslost Commodity dollarslost

Finance & Insurance 3.2 Finance & Insurance 8.1

Wholesale Trade 2.7 Wholesale Trade 6.1

Aerospace 1.9 Aerospace 5.9

Motor Vehicle Parts 1.4 Communications Equipment 5.4

Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 1.3 Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries 2.7

Air Transportation 1.0 Other Instruments10 2.4

Other Instruments 0.9 Air Transportation 2.2

Professional Services 0.8 Professional Services 2.1

Motor Vehicles 0.8 Other Chemicals 1.4

General & Misc. Industrial Equipment 0.7 Meat Products 1.2

Other (69 Sectors) 13.9 Other (69 Sectors) 34.4

Total 28.4 billion Total 71.7 billion

Other Instruments includes photographic and photocopying equipment, automatic environmental controls, industrial process variable instruments, totalizing fluid meters and counting devices, electricity and signal testing instruments, analytical laboratory, instruments, watch, clock, and other measuring and controlling devices, and laboratory apparatus and furniture.

SOURCE LIFT/INFORUM Model, University of Maryland, based on calculations by EDR Group using the Transportation Economic Impact System (TREDIS).


AsecondexampleoftechnologychangeisMagneticLevitation(maglev)Systems,whichhavebeenunderdevelopmentandreviewintheU.S.andabroadformanyyears.Bothhigh-speedintercityandlow-speedurbansystemshavebeendevelopedandtested—primarilyinGermany,Japan,SouthKorea,andChina.Ahigh-speedmaglevsystemhasbeenbuiltandiscurrentlyinoperationbetweendowntownShanghaiandthePudongInternationalAir-port.OtherairportconnectorsystemshavebeenplannedforMunichandareundercon-siderationinseveralMiddleEasterncountries.AmaglevsystemiscurrentlybeingplannedbetweenGenevaandLausanne,andanotherbetweenBerneandZurich.

Anexampleofapplyingexistingtoolsisrethinkingvariousformsofintercitytransportandinvestinginthingslikeintercityrailwithairportconnections(notnecessarilyhighspeed,butrailatspeedsthateffectivelycompetewithautos),particularlytoaddressthemobilityandaccessrequirementswithinandbetweenanentiretierofsmallandmid-sizedurbanareas.Theremayevenbeexpress,scheduledbusser-vicethatwouldwork.

Inthiscase,itisnotsomuch“new”technol-ogythatisneeded,butnewthinkingofhowtouseexistingtechnologiestoeasetravel,par-ticularlyforcommutingandthe100–500miletrip.Atthepresenttime,theaverageAmericancommuteisworsethanthatinmanyEuropeannationsandanewmixofexistingtransporta-tionandothertechnologiescouldbepartofasolution.12

mitigationThisreportcontrastsatransportationsystemfundedatlevelscomparabletotoday’slev-elswithafullyfundedsystemtoassessthedegreetowhichU.S.economicconditionsareaffectedbycurrentandprojectedinfra-structuredeficiencies.“Trendsextended”isunderstoodasthecostofeffectivelycontinu-ingtofundtransportationattoday’slevels,

withtoday’spriorities,andnotactingtomakesignificantimprovementsinareasthatarecur-rentlyunfunded,oraddressingfutureneedsforwhichthereisnoevidentfundingsource.How-ever,the2007NationalSurfaceTransportationPolicyandRevenueStudyCommissionreportsuggeststhatevencurrentlevelsassumedinthisreport’seconomicanalysismaynotbesus-tainable.13ThemagnitudeofneedsfoundbytheanalysisinthisreportgenerallyconcurswiththemagnitudesfoundbythePolicyandRev-enueStudyCommission;though,thisreportdoesnotattempttoquantifytheadditionallosstotheU.S.economyiffundinglevelsweretodeclinebecauseofincreasingfuturerevenueshortfalls.

Formanyyears,federalsurfacetransporta-tionlegislationandstatewideplanninghaveplacedanemphasisonthepreservationofexistingassets.14Forhighways,pavementandbridgepreservationhasbeenapriority,asimplementedbystateswitha“fixitfirst”pol-icytoprotectexistingassets.ThefundingandemphasisforbridgepreservationalsoincreasedinthewakeoftheI-35bridgecollapseinMin-neapolisinthesummerof2007.Thepriorityplacedonhighwayandbridgefundingshowsthattransportationinvestmentcanmakeadifference,withtheFederalHighwayAdminis-tration(FHWA)reportingpavementconditionsimprovingfrom39%withacceptableridequal-ityin1997to57%in2006.Furthermore,the

This report contrasts a transportation system funded at levels comparable to today’s levels with a fully funded system to assess the degree to which u.s. economic conditions are affected by current and projected infrastructure deficiencies.


table 7 ★ U.S. Commodity Export Reductions by Percentage, 2020 & 2040 (billions of 2010 dollars)

2020 2040 PercentageofexPorts PercentageofexPorts

commodity lost(byvalue) commodity lost(byvalue)

TV, VCR, radios, phonographs, etc.11 6% Communications equipment 11%

Apparel 5% TV, VCR, radios, phonographs, etc. 5%

Motor vehicle parts 4% Ships & boats 3%

Agricultural fertilizers & chemicals 3% Ophthalmic goods 3%

Other transportation equipment 3% Agricultural fertilizers & chemicals 3%

Stone, clay & glass 3% Rubber products 2%

Ophthalmic goods 3% Motor vehicle parts 2%

Special industry machinery 2% Government enterprises 2%

Shoes & leather 2% Other transportation equipment 2%

Service industry machinery 2% Apparel 2%

SOURCE LIFT/INFORUM Model, University of Maryland, based on calculations by EDR Group using the Transportation Economic Impact System (TREDIS).

NOtE TV, VCR, radios and phonographs includes household audio and video equipment.

number of structurally deficient or functionally obsolete bridges declined from 34% in 1996 to 27.6% in 2006. This progress has left the bulk of deficiency cost in the form of unmet transit needs and rising highway congestion.

If the preservation investments described above had not been made, the economic burden of deficient infrastructure would be signifi-cantly greater than we have found for today and in the future. If the Highway Trust Fund and

other sources are unable to continue today’s funding levels, then the loss of jobs, personal income, and value added will be beyond the losses we have quantified. However, if trans-portation investment levels rise in areas that support building and maintaining minimum tolerable conditions across the system, national jobs, income, and GDP can rise to the levels we have found and quantified in this study.


regional iMPlications4

implications of DeficienciesTherelativeseverityofdifferenttypesofdefi-cienciesthatoccurredin2010foreachregionoftheUnitedStatesduetodeficientanddete-rioratinginfrastructureisshowninTable8.

RegionsoftheU.S.withlargecities,highdensities,andhighconcentrationsofurbaninterstatesandfreewaysexperiencethemostdirectcostsofdeficienttransportationinfra-structureintheformofurbancongestion.TheNewEnglandandFarWestregionstodayhavecongestionlevelsaccountingfor23%and24%ofVMT,respectively.Furthermore,areaswithhigherdensities,moretransit-dependentpopulations,andoldertransitsystemsareoftenmoresusceptibletotransitdeficiencies.

Thedeficientanddeterioratingtrans-portationconditionsdescribedabovetranslateintolossesintheAmericanecon-omythroughoutthe50statesandeveryindustrialsectoroftheeconomy.Ofthejobslostduetodeterioratinginfrastructure,theimpactwasthegreatestintheMid-Atlan-ticregion,followedbytheFarWestregion.Theseregionsaremostaffectedbecauseoftheirhighconcentrationofcongested,urban-izedareas,andtheirhighdependenceonurbaninterstates,freeways,andtransitsys-tems,whichareamongthemostdeficientaccordingtofederalhighwayandtransitstatistics.

eachregionoftheu.s.andeachindustryoftheamerican

economyisaffectedindifferentwaysbythecostsimposed

bysubstandardanddeterioratinginfrastructure.themost

affectedregionsarethosewiththelargestconcentrationsof

urbanareas,giventhaturbanhighways,bridges,andtransit

systemsareinpoorerconditiontodaythanareruralfacilities.

Peakcommutingpatternsalsoplacelargerburdensonurban

capacities.However,becauseamericaissodependentonthe

interstateHighwaysystem,impactsoninterstateperformance

insomeregionsorareatypesarefeltthroughoutthenation.

regionsareillustratedbythemaponpage22.


table 8 ★ Congestion and Pavement Deficiency by Region, 2010

★ FaR WeSt % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 53%

% VMt caPacity DeFicient 24%

tRanSit buS (inteRRuPtionS PeR thouSanDS VMt) 1.1

tRanSit Rail (inteRRuPtionS PeR thouSanDS VMt) 0.7

★GReat laKeS % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 32%




★MiD atlantic % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 44%




★neW enGlanD % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 28%




★PlainS % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 28%




★RocKy MountainS % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 20%




★South eaSt % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 14%




★South WeSt % VMt PaVeMent DeFicient 31%




Source EDR Group analysis using 2010 USDOT Highway Economic Requirements System for States (HERS-ST) and 2008 HPMS Data, USDOT Transit Economic Requirements Model (TERM) and 2010 National Transit Database.

FaR WeSt

RocKy MountainSPlainS

GReat laKeS

SoutheaSt

neW enGlanD

MiD atlantic

SouthWeStSource Adapted from the regional map of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Table9★PassengerModereliancebyregion,2010(Percapita)

★plains auTo vmT 2,892 TrucK vmT 392 passenger bus Trips 258 passenger rail Trips 16 DemanD response Trips 115

★rocKy mounTains auTo vmT 2,721 TrucK vmT 327 passenger bus Trips 39 passenger rail Trips 8 DemanD response Trips 5

★souTh easT auTo vmT 2,936 TrucK vmT 353 passenger bus Trips 43 passenger rail Trips 5 DemanD response Trips 16

★souTh WesT auTo vmT 2,812 TrucK vmT 423 passenger bus Trips 429 passenger rail Trips 32 DemanD response Trips 170

★Far WesT auTo vmT 2,555 TrucK vmT 238 passenger bus Trips 725 passenger rail Trips 74 DemanD response Trips 197

★greaT laKes auTo vmT 2,580 TrucK vmT 349 passenger bus Trips 423 passenger rail Trips 57 DemanD response Trips 147

★miD aTlanTic auTo vmT 2,170 TrucK vmT 203 passenger bus Trips 1,036 passenger rail Trips 668 DemanD response Trips 182

★neW englanD auTo vmT 2,568 TrucK vmT 175 passenger bus Trips 405 passenger rail Trips 176 DemanD response Trips 186

Different reliance and vulnerabilities by modes Regionswithalargerpercentageofurban-izedareasaremoredirectlyaffectedbythetraveltimeandoperatingimpactsofdefi-cienthighwaysandtransitsystems.Ruralregionsareaffectedmorebytheroutingeffectsofdeficientinterstates,andbyfund-ingshortfallsindemandresponsetransitsystems.Table9comparestherelianceofdif-ferentregionsoftheU.S.ondifferenttypesofsurfacetransportationinfrastructureandservices(percapita).Overall,lower-densityregionsliketheRockyMountainsandtheGreatPlainshavemorevehiclemilesoftravel

percapita,whereashigher-densityregionslikeNewEnglandandtheMid-AtlanticstateshavelessVMTpercapita,butaresubjecttomorecongestionduetothedensityofpopulationandtraffic.Furthermore,thehigher-densityregionsofNewEnglandandtheMid-Atlanticstateshavesignificantlymoretransittripspercapita,andarethereforelikelytobemoresensitivetothecostsofdeficienttransit.

rural regions are affected more by the routing effects of deficient interstates, and by funding shortfalls in demand response transit systems.

source EDRGroupanalysisusing2010USDOTHighwayEconomicRequirementsSystemforStates(HERS-ST)and2008HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS)data,.PopulationprojectionsarebasedonWoodsandPooledata.


diVersion of traffic due to congestion5urbaninterstatecapacitieshavenotkeptpacewithdemand

inurbanareas,andspeedsonu.s.interstatesinurbanareas

in2010were10milesperhourlessthantheywouldbeifthe

systemwerebuilttominimumtolerableengineeringstandards

forprojectedtrafficlevels.15in2020this‘speeddeficit’will

growto13milesperhourand16milesperhourin2040.

BecauseofsignificantlydeterioratinginterstatespeedsthroughAmerica’smajorcities,increas-inglevelsofinterstatetrafficarerelyingonlower-levelarterials,inbothurbanandruralareastoaccessthenation’stradecenters.16Theurbanandruralarterialroutesabsorbingthemajorityofthistrafficfromadeficienturbaninterstatesystemtypicallyhavelowerdesignspeedsandstandardsthantheinterstates,andaresubjecttohighercrashratesandothercosts.In2010,itisestimatedthat18%ofurbaninterstatetrafficwasdivertedtolowerclassi-fiedsystems,and6%ofruralinterstatetrafficwasdiverted.

Figure4showsthatwhilecongestionandVMTgrowthareincreasinglyconcentratedinurbanareas—thecostsandperformanceimpli-cationsofthesedeficienciesareaffectingruralandoutlyingareasaswell,andoftenresultinsignificantlyhigherVMTandvehiclehoursoftravel(VHT),especiallyfortrucksandtrans-continentalmovesthanwouldotherwisebethecase.Theseprojectedchangesdrawattentiontothesufficiencyandperformanceofarterials,

andevennonurbanarterials(shownassmallerlinesinthebackgroundinFigure6),mostofwhichareabsorbingsomeshareoftheintercitytrafficthatisshowntobedivertedwhenurbaninterstateandfreewayspeedsareaffectedbycongestion.Thus,theroutingeffectsofdeficienciesintheinterstatesystemcannotbeisolatedtoonlyurbanareaswheredeficienciesoccurbutalsoaffectallthediffer-entregionsoftheU.S.,bothurbanandrural.

Figure4doesnotshowtrafficgrowthovertime,butinsteadshowsthechangeinrout-ingthatoccursduetourbanbottlenecksontheinterstatesystem.Atcurrentfundinglev-els,thereassignmentofinterstatetraffictolowerclassifiedsystemscreatesanadditional360millionurbanVHTand104millionruralVHTin2010,andwillincreaseto22bil-lionurbanVHTand6billionruralVHTin2020,and34billionurbanVHTand6billionruralVHTby2040.Mostoftheroutesgain-ingtrafficarestatearterialrouteswithlowercapacities,designspeeds,anddesignstan-dardsthantherouteslosingtraffic.


Figure4★Patternofreassignmentsfromcongestedinterstates,2010–2040

source: CalculationsbyEDRGroupusingsynthesisofthreesources:HERS-ST,forthemagnitudeofspeedeffectsdeficienciesondifferenturbanandruralfunctionalsystems;FAF3,whichprovidesnetworkandbaselinetruckrouting;andfinallyCUBEVoyager,whichenablesustoseehowthedeficienciesfoundbyHERSaffecttheroutingsshownbyFAF.

Blue:Highwaysthatwillbeavoidedallorinpartduetoextremecongestionred:Roadsthatabsorbtrafficdivertedfromcongested(red)highways.


tHe national Modal funding gaP6

theunitedstatescarriesabacklogof$3trillioninunfunded

surfacetransportationneeds,includinga$2.2trillionbacklog

forhighwaysandbridgesand$86billioninunfundedtransit

capitalinfrastructureneeds.17thisbacklogdoesnotincludethe

costofprovidingaccesstotransittothesignificantnumberof

americanswhodonotcurrentlyhaveaccesstofixedroutetransit

and/ordemandresponsetransit.approximately15%oftransit

revenuemilesoccurringin2010areonvehicleswithastateof

goodrepairof“fair”or“poor.”inaddition,31%ofpassenger

carvehiclemilesoftraveloccurredonroadwayswithlessthan

minimumtolerablepavementconditionsand18%ofpassenger

cartripsoccurredoncongestedroads.18By2040,theproportion

oftransitrevenuemilesoccurringonlessthan“good”vehicles

willriseto33%,andthe18%ofpassengercarVMttraveled

incongestedconditionswillriseto36%.table10andFigure5

summarizethepercentageofvehicleorrevenuemiles,bymode

subjecttodeficienciestoday,andhowthesedeficienciesare

expectedtocarryintothefuture.19


Figure5★DevelopmentofDeficienciesbyMode

source EDRGroupanalysisusing2010USDOTHighwayEconomicRequirementsSystemforStates(HERS-ST)and2008HPMSdata.

2010

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

B

A

Demand-Response Transit

Bus Transit (Fixed Route)

Rail Transit

Trucks (Capacity)

Passenger Cars (Capacity)

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%2020

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

B

A



Rail Transit

Trucks (Capacity)


0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

B

A



Rail Transit

Trucks (Capacity)


0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%n%ofVMTSufficientInfrastructure

n%ofVMTDeficientInfrastructure

2040


DeficienciesbyModeattoday’sFundinglevels % oF vmT suFFicienT % oF vmT DeFicienT

year vehicle Type inFrasTrucTure inFrasTrucTure

2010 Passenger Cars (capacity/congestion) 82% 18%

Trucks (capacity/congestion) 82% 18%

Rail Transit 89% 11%

Bus Transit (fixed route) 84% 16%

Demand-Response Transit 84% 16%











source EDRGroupanalysisusing2010USDOTHighwayEconomicRequirementsSystemforStates(HERS-ST)and2008HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS)data.

Table10★DevelopmentofDeficienciesbyMode

Itshouldbenotedthatinthecaseoftransit,deficienciesmaycompoundamongmodes,withfixed-routetransitbusordemandresponsevehiclesalsooperatingincongestedconditionsondeficientpavements.

Becauseoftoday’sbacklog,in201016.2%oftransitbusVMToccurredinsuboptimalcondi-tions(andthisisexpectedtoincreaseto30%in2040),16%ofdemand-responsebusVMTare

ondeficientvehiclestoday(expectedtoincreaseto68%in2040),7%oflightrailVMTareondeficientvehiclestoday(expectedtoincreaseto22%in2040),and11.2%ofotherrailvehiclesaredeficient(expectedtoincreaseto15.8%in2040).Table9showsthepercentageoftran-sitVMTcarriedondeficientinfrastructurein2010andpercentagesexpectedforanticipateddemandsin2020and2040.Table11and


year TransiT Type % suFFicienT % DeFicienT

2010 Bus Transit (fixed route) 84% 16%

Demand Response (para-transit) 84% 16%

Light Rail 93% 7%

Other Rail 89% 11%



Light Rail 86% 14%

Other Rail 90% 10%



Light Rail 78% 22%

Other Rail 84% 16%

source EDRGroupanalysisusingUSDOTTransitEconomicRequirementsModel(TERMS)and2010NationalTransitDatabase.

TransiT Type vehicle Type 2010 2020 2040

Bus Passenger Bus $49 $398 $659

Rail Passenger Rail $41 $171 $370

totals $90 $568 $1,029

source EDRGroupusingTransportationEconomicImpactSystem(TREDIS),2011.note Totalsmaynotaddduetorounding

Table12★totalcostsDuetoDeficientandDeterioratinginfrastructure (billions of 2010 dollars)

Table11★transitModeBreakdownofPercentVMtoperatingonDeficiencies overtimeGivencurrentFundinglevels


Figure5showhowthedeficienciesfortran-sitmodesareexpectedtoincreasefrom2010to2040,assumingtoday’sfundinglevels.Itshouldbenotedthatthedeficiencyofdemandresponsefleetswillrisedisproportionatelyastheagingpopulationplacesincreasingdemandonparatransitservicesforthenondrivingpop-ulation.Thisisespeciallyimportantforthenation’seconomy,astheabilityofthisrapidlygrowingsegmentofthepopulationtopartici-pateinconsumerandlabormarketswillbeadverselyaffectedifdemand-responseser-vicesarenotsufficienttokeeppacewithrisingdemand.

Regardlessofthetypeoftransit,defi-cienttransitfleetsaremoresusceptibletointerruptionsinservice,costinghouseholdsandbusinessestimeandreliabilitydueto

unanticipateddelaywheninterruptionsoccur.In2010,thereweremorethan430interruptionsperrevenuemileonpassengerbusservices,57interruptionsperrevenuemileondemand-responseservices,349interruptionspermileonlightrail,and123interruptionspermileonotherrailservices.Astransitfleetsbecomeincreasinglydeficientrelativetodemand,inter-ruptionsandtheircostsareexpectedtoimposeanincreasingburdenontheeconomy,espe-ciallyinthegrowingdemand-responsetransitsector,whichservesnondriving(andoftennonurban)populationswithfeweralterna-tivetransportationoptions.Inadditiontomorelikelyinterruptions,deficienttransitvehiclesarealsolessfuelandenergyefficient,resultinginincreasedoperatingcostspermile,placingaddi-tionalcostontheAmericaneconomy.

Overall,deficienciesinbustransit(fixed-routeanddemand-response)areestimatedtohaveimposed$49billionincostontheAmeri-caneconomyin2010.Itisanticipatedthatby2020,thepresentvalueofcumulativebustran-sitdeficiencycostswillnear$400billion,andwillreachnearly$680billionby2040.Defi-cienciesinrailtransitvehiclesareestimatedtohaveimposedmorethan$41billionincoststotheU.S.economyin2010,andcumulativelywillhaveexceeded$170billionby2020andwillhavereachednearly$370billionby2040.Table12showshowtheoveralleconomiccostsoftransitdeficiencieswillincreaseintheU.S.economyto2040.

as transit f leets become increasingly deficient relative to demand, interruptions and their costs are expected to impose an increasing burden on the economy, especially in the growing demand-response transit sector, which serves nondriving (and often nonurban) populations with fewer alternative transportation options.


supporTeD by currenT

year oF neeD ToTal neeD FunDing level % FunDeD

Cumulative to 2020 $68 $59 87%

Cumulative to 2040 $172 $126 73%

averageannual $5.7 $4.2 75%

source EDRGroupanalysisusing2010USDOTHighwayEconomicRequirementsSystemforStates(HERS-ST)(FiscallyConstrained)and2008HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS)data.

Maintenanceneedsareacriticalaspectofhighwayinvestmentrequirements,andareexpectedtoincreaseovertime.Unmetmaintenanceneedsspeedupthedeteriora-tionofinfrastructureandmaybringaboutthecostsandadverseeconomicimpactsgiveninthisreportonafastertimetable,andwithmagnitudesexacerbatedbeyondwhatisincludedintheformaleconomicanaly-sisofunmetcapitalimprovementneeds.Unmetmaintenanceneedsalsooftenpres-entthemselvesasurgentneeds,anddivertinvestmentfrommorelong-terminvest-mentsofthetypethatwouldultimatelyberequiredtoovercomemanyofthecostsandadverseimpactsexploredinthisreport.

Wheninfrastructuremaintenance,repairs,andimprovementsarenotfullyfunded,short-term“band-aid”solutionsareoftenimplementedtoenabletheinfrastructuretocontinuefunctioningatlessthanminimumtolerableconditions.Whentheseshort-termsolutionsareimplemented,inadditiontotheusercostofoperatingthedeficientinfrastruc-ture,thecostofoperatingandmaintainingtheinfrastructureisgreaterthanitwouldbeiftheinfrastructurewereinpropercondition.Table13givesanestimateofhowmainte-nanceneedsmaydevelopovertime,andhowunmetneedsmayincreaseiftoday’sfundinglevelsdonotchange.

Table13 ★MaintenanceneedsinBillionsofconstant2010Dollars (assumingcurrentcapitalinvestmentlevels)

iMPlications of Maintenance funding (and a funding gaP)7


conclusions and furtHer researcH8

ThecostofcontinuingtofundimprovementsforAmerica’ssurfacetransportationsystematcurrentlevelsproducesamountingbur-denofdeficiency,whichshiftseconomiccoststothenextgenerationofAmericanhouse-holdsandbusinesses.Thisburdentakestheformofhighercostsofdoingbusiness,feweropportunitiesforfirmstoinvest,andlessdis-posableincomeforfamilies.TheburdenalsocompromisesAmerica’scompetitivepositionintheworld’seconomyandleadstoloweroverallprofitabilityformostbusinesssectors.Althoughtoday’sfundinglevelshavebeen

effectiveingraduallyimprovinghighwaypavementandbridgeconditions,themount-ingcostsimposedbydeficienttransitandurbancongestionwillcontinuetoaccruelongintothefuture.Furthermore,today’sfundinglevelsdonotaccountforimportantdemo-graphicshifts.From2010to2040,theU.S.populationisexpectedtogrowbyone-third,andtheproportionofAmericansage75yearsandolderisexpectedtonearlydouble.Thisagingpopulationwillincreasinglydependondemand-responsetransitsystems.ProjecteddemographicshiftsareshowninTable14.

populaTion percenTage 0F householDs civilian jobs

year (millions) populaTion 75+ (millions) (millions)

2010 310 6% 118 142

2020 341 7% 131 162

2040 406 11% 157 190

sources Thetotalnumberjobsiscalculatedfromvarioussources,withtheBureauofLaborStatisticsbeingtheprimarysource.PopulationdatawereobtainedfromtheU.S.Census,andthepopulationprojectionsareguidedbytheprojectionsoftheSocialSecurityAdministration.AggregatedbytheInforumResearchUnitoftheUniversityofMaryland.

Table14★u.s.Demographicchange,2010–2040


Theanalysispresentedinthisreportrepresentsageneral,“sketch-level”understandingofhowdifferenttypesofsurfacetransportationinfra-structuredeficienciesaffecttheU.S.economy,andwillcontinuetodosointhefuture.Althoughthereisaclearadverseimpactofdoingnothingbeyond“businessasusual”toaddressAmeri-ca’ssubstantialbacklogofhighway,transit,andrailtransportationneeds,thereareopportuni-tiesforsignificantlymoreresearchthatcanlendgreaterunderstandingtotheissuesraisedinthisreport.Akeyareaforfutureresearchisdevel-opingbestpracticesforstate-levelplanningandprogrammingeffortstoincorporateforward-lookingassetmanagementandperformancebenchmarkingtoolsliketheFHWAHighwayEconomicRequirementsforStates(HERS-ST,highways),NationalBridgeInvestmentAnalysisSystem(NBIAS,bridges),andtheFTATransitEconomicRequirementsModel(TERM,transit)usedinthisreportinconjunctionwitheconomicimpactandtrademodelsofthetypealsousedinthisanalysis.Thisreportisintendedtohighlightnotonlyhowinfrastructuredeficienciesimposecostsontheeconomy,butalsohowthesecostsrelatetotheproductivityandcompetitivenessofindustriesaswellastheprosperityofhouse-holds.Furtherresearchinbestpracticesforconsistentlyincorporatingthisrelationshipasaregularpartoftransportationplanningandpro-grammingisencouragedtobuildontheworkofthisreport.

Anotherareaforfutureresearchpertainstodeterminingthetrulyefficientlevelofinvest-mentinsurfacetransportationinfrastructure.Althoughthisreportestablishesthedegreeandmannerinwhichdeficientsurfacetrans-portationassetsweakenthenationaleconomy,moreresearchisneededtoestablishbreak-evenfundinglevelsatwhichtheseadverseeco-nomicimpactsoutweightheeffectsofincurringimprovementcostsassociatedwithtranspor-tationinvestment.Furthermore,theanalysisleadingtothisreportsuggeststhatresearchon

theefficiencyofprioritizingtransportationinvest-mentaroundprojectsofnationalor(multistate)regionalsignificancemayprovideleveragetomini-mizetheongoingimpactofunmetneeds.

Thisreporthasestablishedthattransporta-tiondeficiencies,andtheircosts,haveasignificantimpactonexports,productivity,andthecompeti-tivenessofindustries.Thefindingsoninternationalcompetitivenesspointtoapotentialemergingareaofresearchintothecomparativeeconomicadvan-tagesofinfrastructuresufficiencyintheglobaltradeenvironment.FurtherresearchneedstobeconductedintohowmajorU.S.tradingpart-nersandinternationalcompetitorsmeasureandbenchmarktransportationperformance,andthecomparativeefficienciesofforeignsurfacetrans-portationsystemsrelativetotheU.S.mayaffectindustrialcompetitivenessandthetermsoftrade.

ThefindingsofthisstudyalsosuggestthemeritoffutureresearchontheroleandsufficiencyoftheInterstateHighwaySystem,andspecificallyintheimpactofurbancapacitydeficienciesonnationalintrastatetrafficflows.Thefindingsleadingtothisreportsuggestthatcapacitydeficienciesonurbaninterstateswillbealeadingdriveroftransporta-tioncostintheU.S.economyto2040,andalsocanhavetrafficassignmenteffectsplacingdemandsonurbanarterialandruralfacilities.Understand-ingthetruenationaltransportationperformanceandeconomicimpactsofdeterioratinglevelsofser-viceonurbaninterstatesandfreewaysiscriticalforappropriatelyrespondingtodifficultinvestmentchoicesfortheU.S.surfacetransportationsystem.

Finally,thefindingsregardingtransitsuffi-ciencypointstoaneedformoreresearchintotheadequacyoftoday’sdemand-responsefleetsforagrowingnondrivingpopulation.Althoughconsid-erableresearchhasbeendoneontransportationalternativesforthissegmentofthepopulation,furtherresearchisneededintothesystem-leveleconomicimpactsofdifferentlevelsmobilityanddemand-responsetransitsufficiency,aswellaseconomicandperformancetrade-offswheninvest-mentchoicesariseforthistypeoftransit.


sources and methodsAlthoughthereisnosinglemodelordatasourceaccountingforallthefindingsinthisreport,theeconomicanalysisrepresentsahigh-levelsyn-thesisoftheUniversityofMaryland’sLIFT/INFORUMglobaltradeandeconomicimpactmodel,withausercostanalysisbasedontheTransportationEconomicDevelopmentInfor-mationSystem(TREDIS),whichwasdevelopedbyEDRGroupandiscurrentlybeingusedin40U.S.statesandCanadianprovinces.

Thebasisforestablishingfuturetransporta-tionconditionsunderpresenttrendsinvestmentscenarioswasbasedonwidelyacceptedmodelsoftransportationsufficiency,costs,conditionsandperformance,andbuttressedbyaliteraturereview.

Highwayneedsandanticipatedfuturedefi-ciencies(andperformancelevels)atdifferentfundinglevelsarebasedonanapplicationof2010HERS-STusing2008HPMSdatafromeachofthe50statesusingthedefaultminimumtolerableconditions,unitcosts,runspecifi-cations,andparametersprovidedwiththeHERS-STsoftware.HERS-STdefaultparam-eterswereadjustedtoassumesystemexpansionneedswouldnotexceedamaximumof16lanes(representedinthefullyfundedorsufficientbasecase),andno“high-costlanes”highwaywideningwouldbeconsideredasaneedincaseswheretheHPMSsamplehadconsideredwiden-inginfeasible.Insuchcases,preservationneedswereassumedtoaccrue,butwideningwasnotcountedasamongtheneeds.

Consequently,theanalysisassumesthatsomelevelofcongestionwilloccur,evenwithafullyfundedsystemandthefullyfundedbasecasedoesnotassume“free-flow”conditions.Inaddition,whendevelopingthetransportationanalysisforthisreport,wedeliberatelyavoidedincludingcostsofcatastrophessimilartotheI-35bridgecollapse.Inotherwords,weassumedthatinfrastructurefailureresultsincongestionsandvehiclecosts,butnotnational-leveltragedies.Overall,thisapproachisconsistentwithavoid-inga“gold-plated”infrastructureinvestmentscenario,andisconsistentwiththeASCE Report Card for America’s Infrastructure.Furthermore,thetrafficgrowthratesinstateHPMSfileswerecontrollednottoexceedmaximumannualhis-toricratesofgrowthordeclineforanygivenfunctionalclassificationofroadinanygivenstate.FuturevolumesinHERS-STwerealsoadjustedbyfunctionalclassificationbasedonaCUBEVoyagerassignmentofnationalpassen-gercarandtrucktrafficontheFreightAnalysisFramework(FAF)networktoaccountforpoten-tialreassignmentduetocongestedspeedsonurbanfacilitiesfoundbyHERS-ST.

★|about tHe studY

The basis for establishing future transportation conditions under present trends investment scenarios was based on widely accepted models of transportation sufficiency, costs, conditions and performance, and buttressed by a literature review.


Bridgeneedsandusercostsarebasedonesti-matesofstructurallydeficientorfunctionallyobsoletebridgesfoundbyananalysisofthe2010nationalbridgeinventoryusingtheNationalBridgeInvestmentAnalysisSystem(NBIAS),thelatestandmostcomprehensivebridgemodelusedbytheFHWA.Theusercostsforbridgedeficien-ciesarebasedonapplyingtofutureyearstherateofbridgerestrictionsperdeficient/obsoletebridgeinthe2010nationalbridgeinventorywiththeaveragebridgedetourbyfunctionalclassifi-cationfromtheNBIA’scostmatrix.

Transitneedsandusercostsarebasedoncur-rentdeficiencylevelsbyassettypefoundinaninitialrunoftheFTA’sTERM,projectedfor-wardinproportiontothedifferencebetweenfutureconstrainedandunconstrainedfuturetransitcapitalinvestmentneedsfoundbyTERM,andappliedtorevenuemilesbyassettypeforeachBEAregion.Theserviceinterrup-tionsperdeficientrevenuemile(foreachregionandassettype)arebasedonthe2010nationaltransitdatabase,andareappliedtodeficiencylevelsassociatedwithfuturetransitinvestmentshortfalls.

Theoverallneedsanddeficienciesfoundbythevariousmodelsused(HERS-ST,TERM,NBIAS,andCUBE)werecomparedagainstthetrendsreportedinfederalhighwaystatistics,theUSDOT2008ConditionsandPerformancereport,andthe2007TransportationPolicyandRevenueCommissionreportforconsistencyandreasonableness,allowingfordifferentdatayearsandsources.Theanalysispresentedinthisreportisintendedtodescribetheimplicationsofunmetneedsinnationaleconomicterms,andisnotofferedasasubstituteformorespecificnational,state,ormetropolitan-levelanalysisofneedsanddeficienciesforplanningandprogrammingpurposes.


1.StateofGoodRepairforTransitisdefinedbytheFederalTransitAdministrationas“Assetmeetscertainperformancelevelsatacertainpercentageoftime(e.g.,safetyincidents,servicereliability,andcurrentindustrystandards).”

2.FreeFlowConditionsarerelatedtohighwaycondi-tions,andisdefinedas:“Trafficflowsatorabovethepostedspeedlimitandallmotoristshavecompletemobil-itybetweenlanes.Theaveragespacingbetweenvehiclesisabout550feet(167m)or27carlengths.Motoristshaveahighlevelofphysicalandpsychologicalcomfort.Theeffectsofincidentsorpointbreakdownsareeasilyabsorbed.”—AmericanAssociationofStateofHighwayTransportationOfficialsGreenBook

3.AnalysisbyEDRGroupusingTREDIS(TransportationEconomicDevelopmentImpactSystem),andincludesbothon-the-jobtravelandpersonaltravel.

4.FederalHighwayAdministration,2007;andAmericanPublicTransportationAssociation,2009.

5.FederalHighwayAdministration,2007;andAmericanPublicTransportationAssociation,2009.

6.MinimumTolerableConditionsforhighwaysarecon-sideredasthenationaldefaultsprovidedbyU.S.DOTasdeficiencylevelsintheHERS-STsystem,eitherstructuralsufficiencyoralevelbetterthanfunctionalobsolescenceintheNBIASbridgemodel,andtransitsufficiencyrat-ingsbetterthan“marginal”intheFTATERMinvestmentmodel.

7.Inthisreport,“congestionmitigation”investmentsrefertoenhancementsofsurfacetransportationsystemthataddressexistingorexpectedfuturecongestion,andtherebysustainorimprovetheirperformance.Thiscanincludeanycombinationofchangesincapacity,operationsormodalfacilities.

8.Percentagesdonotincludebacklogoraccruingneedsonheavyrailservicesthatmayotherwisebeconsideredtransit

9.Reliabilityisthemeasureofthevariationoftraveltimebetweenanytwopoints.TheFederalHighwayAdminis-trationdefinesreliabilityas“consistencyordependabilityintraveltimes,asmeasuredfromday-to-dayand/oracrossdifferenttimesoftheday.”

10.Otherinstrumentsincludephotographicandphoto-copyingequipment,automaticenvironmentalcontrols,industrialprocessvariableinstruments,totalizingfluidmetersandcountingdevices,electricityandsignaltest-inginstruments,analyticallaboratory,instruments,watch,clock,andothermeasuringandcontrollingdevices,andlaboratoryapparatusandfurniture.

11.Includeshouseholdaudioandvideoequipment.

12.BasedondatafromtheEuropeanSurveyonWorkingConditionsandtheUSCensusBureau,andreportedinTheEconomist,April28,2011,theaveragedailyU.S.,com-mutetakesmoretimethancommutesintheNetherlands,Poland,Germany,Sweden,Spain,BritainandItaly,andisshorterthanHungaryandRomania.

13.SeeTransportation for Tomorrow: Report of the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commis-sion,http://transportationfortomorrow.com/.ThestudywaspreparedtoaddressSection1909oftheSafeAccount-able,FlexibleandEfficientTransportationEquityAct—ALegacyforUsers(SAFETEA-LU).

14.PlanningFactor#8ofSAFETEA-LU(TheSafe,Accountable,Flexible,EfficientTransportationEquityAct:ALegacyforUsers)explicitlycallsforanemphasisonsystempreservation.Also,thefollowingtextfromtheVirginiastatewideplanispertinent:Atthenationallevel,AASHTOhasrecognizedtheimportanceofthisissuethroughactionssuchasadoptingtransportationassetmanagementasapriorityinitiative,formingtheAASHTOSubcommitteeonAssetManagementandpublishingtheTransportationAssetManagementGuidein2002.3Like-wise,theFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)hasformeditsOfficeofAsset

15.“Sufficient”interstatespeedsaredefinedspeedsthatwouldoccurifinterstatecapacitieswerebuilttominimumtolerableconditionsforpredictedtrafficlevels(asdefinedintheHERS-STsoftwaredefaults)exceptincaseswhere(1)wideningisdeemedinfeasibleintheHPMSsampleor(2)whenwideningwouldresultinmorethaneightlanesineachdirection.Inthesecases,interstatecongestioncostsareconsideredtobeeitherunavoidableorrepre-sentedasneedsaccruingonothermodes.Thisstudydoesnotadvocateaparticularmethodofresolvingdeficiencies,butmerelyassessesthecostandimpactofnotaddressingdeficienciesthatarenotcurrentlybeingaddressed.Forhighways,theminimaltolerableconditionisdefinedbytheFHWAwithacombinationofcapacityandsafetyfactors,includingvolumes,pavementconditions,curves,grades,andshoulderwidths.

16.Forexample,anurbanbottleneckonaninterstateinSt.LouisaffectsnotonlytrafficconditionsinSt.Louis,butwillaffectnationalandregionalroutingsofinter-citytruckandcartrafficthroughSt.Louisaswellastherout-ingbywhichcarsandtrucksenterandexitthecity.

17.ThesourceforthebacklogandaccruingtransitneedsisEDRGroup’ssynthesisofresultsfromtheTERMmodelappliedthe2010NationalTransitDatabase(NTD)withinthecontextofthe2007revenuecommissionanalysis.ThehighwaybacklogisbasedontheapplicationoftheHERS-STmodeltothe2010HPMSdatabase.

18.MinimumtolerablepavementconditionsandcongestedroadsaredefinedintermsofthedefaultvaluesoftheFHWAHERS-STeconomicrequirementssoftware.

19.DerivedfromneedsanalysisinUSDOTpubliclyavail-ablemodels:TransitEconomicRequirementModel,andfromHERS-ST,asruninMay,2011,appliedto2010HPMSandNTDdatabases.

★|endnotes

aBoUT eDR GRoUpEconomic Development Research Group, Inc. (EDR Group) is a consulting firm focusing specifically on applying state-of-the-art tools and techniques for evaluating economic development performance, impacts, and opportunities. The firm was started in 1996 by a core group of economists and plan-ners who are specialists in evaluating impacts of transportation infrastructure, services, and technol-ogy on economic development opportunities. Glen Weisbrod, president of EDR Group, was appointed by the National Academies to chair the TRB Committee on Transportation and Economic Development.

EDR Group provides both consulting advisory services and full-scale research projects for public and private agencies throughout North America as well as in Europe, Asia and Africa. The firm’s work focuses on three issues:

• Economic Impact Analysis

• Benefit / Cost Analysis

• Market / Strategy Analysis

The transportation work of EDR Group includes studies of the economic impacts of road, air, sea and railroad modes of travel, including economic benefits, development impacts and benefit/cost relationships. The firm’s work is organized into three areas: (1) general research on investment benefit and produc-tivity implications; (2) planning studies, including impact, opportunities, and benefit/cost assessment; and (3) evaluation, including cost-effectiveness implications.

Senior staff at EDR Group have conducted studies from coast to coast in both the U.S. and Canada, as well as studies in Japan, England, Scotland, Finland, Netherlands, India and South Africa. EDR Group is also nationally recognized for state-of-the-art analysis products, including the Transportation Economic Development Impact System (TREDIS).

Economic Development Research Group, Inc.2 Oliver Street, 9th Floor, Boston, MA 02109www.edrgroup.com / [email protected]: 617-338-6775; fax: 617-338-1174

acKnoWLeDGmenTS For the opportunity to conduct this research, EDR Group wishes to thank Brian Pallasch, Jane Howell and Caroline Macheska of ASCE; and Allison Dickert, formerly of ASCE and ASCE’s Committee on America’s Infrastructure. We gratefully acknowledge the assistance of Ron Horst, Doug Mead, and Jeffrey Werling of the University of Maryland Economics Department. The transportation analysis, which is the founda-tion of projected economic impact would not have been possible without Christopher Chang and Steve Sissell from the U.S. Department of Transportation, who provided inputs and data for the HERS and NBIAS models; Keith Gates of the Federal Transit Administration and Richard Laver of Booz Allen Hamilton, who provided results from the TERM model; David Hurst of Wilbur Smith Associates / CDM, for assistance in interpreting NBIAS; and Colby Brown of Citilabs, Inc., for assistance in acquiring and applying the FAF network to national traffic patterns.

World Headquarters1801 Alexander Bell DriveReston, Virginia 20191

Washington Office101 Constitution Avenue, NWSuite 375 EastWashington, DC 20001

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