the economics of marijuana markets: michigan and beyond
TRANSCRIPT
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FulllegalizationandMedicalCannabis:8+DC
ComprehensiveMedicalOnly:21states
CBD/IneffectiveMedicalOnly:19
• DC– Noregulatedsystemforfulllegalization
Noprogress:2
States With Regulated Cannabis Laws
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National Market Research• In2016,nationalsaleswereabout$6.2billion with21statesandDCactivelycontributing tothemarket• By2018,over28statemarketsareforecastedtocontribute toa$10.6billionnationalmarket• Estimatedtoincreaseto$16.9billionbytheendof2020
$0$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000$1,500,000,000$2,000,000,000$2,500,000,000$3,000,000,000$3,500,000,000$4,000,000,000$4,500,000,000$5,000,000,000
California Colorado Washington Michigan Massachusetts
TopFiveStateCannabisMarketsin2020Combinedmedicalandadult-use
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
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Medical Potential• Medicalcannabisiseffectivefordozensofdifferentseriousconditions• Growingmedicalacceptancebythegeneralpopulation,politicians,andphysicians• Michigancouldeasilyhaveoneofthetopfivelargestmedicalcannabismarketsbytheendof2020
Currentlyabout1.7millionmedicalcannabispatientsin2017andwillgrowtoover2.2millionby2020
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Number of Cannabis Consumers• About8.4%ofadults,about20.4millionpeople,consumedcannabisinthepastmonth(2015)
• Thesefiguresareunadjustedforunderreporting• Peopleinstateswerecannabisislegalconsumeathigherratesbutarealsolikelytobemorehonestabouttheiruse
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Segmented “National Market”• Federalillegalityandpatientresidencyrestrictionspreventalmostallconsumersandproductsfromtravelingacrossstatelines• Residencyrequirementsinsomestatestoownoroperateacannabisbusinessfurthercomplicatematters• Todealwiththisrestrictionsomecompanieslicensetheirintellectualpropertytomarijuanabusinessesineachstate• Regulatorystructuresandrequirementsvarysignificantlybetweendifferentstates
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Short Term National Growth• Overthenextfewyearsnationalgrowthwillbeleadbynewstatesimplementinglargecommercialadult-useandmedicalmarketsoAdult-use– CA,NV,MA,MI,(DC?)oMedical– AR,FL,MD,MI,OH,PA•Medicalmarijuanaislegalinmanystatesthatcouldhaveseriousmarketsbutwillnotbecauseofoverlyrestrictivepolicy(IL,NY,TX)• Expandingthesemarketscanincreasenationalmarketpotentialjustasmuchifnotmorethanlegalizingmedicalmarijuanainnewstates
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Major Risks• Federallaw
• IRSProvision280E
• Politicalpowershifts
• Changingregulations
• Localopposition
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Michigan Cannabis Market Overview• Populationofabout9.93millionpeople(10th largest)• About995thousandadultpastmonthcannabisconsumers (6th largest)• Patientpopulationof218,556(December2016)• Patienttopopulationratioof2.06%• Likelythesecondlargestinthecountry• Estimated474thousand pounds ofconsumerdemandand124thousandpounds ofpatientdemandin2017• Couldbemuchlargerifexistingmarketcapturedentirepatientconsumption
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Michigan Past Month Consumers• Michigancurrentlyhasabout995thousandadultpastmonthcannabisconsumers
• In2016,about22%ofallpastmonthconsumers
registeredaspatients
• Basedonself-reporting,about31%ofMichigan’sadultpastmonthconsumersare18-25
• About35%ofMichiganpastmonthconsumersusedcannabis20ormoredaysinthelastmonth
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1-5days 6-10days 11-15days 16-20days 21-25days 26-30days
NumberofConsumers TotalPoundsperYear
Michigan Past Month Cannabis Consumers
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Identifying Areas of Growth• Withoutalimitonlicensesstatewide,Michiganwillhavemanymorecannabisbusinessesthanrecentmedicalstates• SignificantbenefitforthosetypesofdirectorancillarybusinessesthatrelyoncannabisbusinesscustomersoSecuretransportersoCannabistestinglaboratoriesoBusinessservices• Michiganhasahighpatienttopopulationratio- 2.06%(Dec2016)oRegionaldisparitiesoGrowthwillcomewithcapturingexistingpatientdemand
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Top Five Michigan Counties
County #OfPatients(Dec2016) Population(July2016)PatienttoPopulationRatio
Wayne 34,941 1,749,366 2.00%
Oakland 24,416 1,243,970 1.96%
Macomb 19,455 867,730 2.24%
Kent 8,754 642,173 1.36%
Genesee 14,802 408,615 3.62%
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Projected Michigan Regulated Market Growth• Michigan’smedicalmarketbeganin2008butwithoutstatelicensing
• Estimatesarebasedonprojectedpatientpopulations,patientdemand,andregulated
marketcaptureofmedicalconsumption
• Projectionassumesadult-uselegalizationin2018andadult-usesaleswillbeginin2020
• RegulatedMedicalSalesin2017- $536million
• RegulatedMedicalSalesin2018- $807million
• RegulatedMedicalandAdult-useSalesin2020- $1.42billion
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$200,000,000
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$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ProjectedMichiganRegulatedCannabisMarketGrowth