THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010

Kathleen A. Frankovic

Hawaii Economic Association

August 26, 2010

OVERVIEW

• What are the national prospects for House and Senate?

• What can we expect the role of issues to be in the election campaign? Which issues have shown up in this year’s elections?

• How do political scientists forecast the outcome?

• Will it all be about the economy?

WHERE WE STAND

HOUSE COMPOSITION– 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans– All seats are up

SENATE COMPOSITION – 37 seats up (includes special elections)– Current Senate: 59 Democrats, 41

Republicans– Not up: 40 Democrats, 23 Republicans– Democrats ONLY need 10 wins to keep

control

WILL THIS BE 1994 ALL OVER AGAIN?

• In 1994, Republicans had an 8-point lead in House vote and captured 54 Democratic seats

• This year they need only 39• There are 49 Congressional districts with

Democratic Congressmen that were carried by McCain in 2008

• However, only 11 gave McCain 60% or more of the vote

• Most of those Congressmen seem secure

FORECASTING MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Elections have been nationalized since 1994 and Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America

Before then, many – if not most – of House and Senate races were decided by local and candidate factors

On many of the important issues, Republicans have an edge

And then there’s the Tea Party

POLITICAL SCIENCE’S ATTEMPTS AT PREDICTION

REGRESSION MODELS USING…-- Presidential approval

-- Current or the change over time-- Some measure of economic growth like the change in real disposable income per capita-- Whether party is “exposed” or controls Congress-- President’s victory margin when elected-- What voters say they will do

AND THE MARGIN IS THEN CONVERTED INTO SEATS

THE MODELS HAVEN’T BEEN PARTICULARLY

SUCCESSFUL!!!

________

WHAT ARE THE DATA ABOUT THE ISSUES

AND THE ELECTION?

MOSQUES

MOSQUES

SAME-SEX MARRIAGE

Which comes closest to your view?

Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry.

Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally marry.

There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Marry Civil Unions Nothing

2004

2010

IMMIGRATION

IMMIGRATION

AFGHANISTAN

THE ISSUES

THE ECONOMY

THE ECONOMY

THE ECONOMY

THE PRESIDENT

THE PRESIDENT

THE REPUBLICAN ADVANTAGES IN 2010

• Presidential approval below 50%

• Historical patterns (post-first presidential election)

• Transient issues favor them

• Greater enthusiasm

ENTHUSIASM GAP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

FollowingVery

Closely

Care a Lot

REPUBLICANS

DEMOCRATS

Talked About

THE IMPACT OF ISSUES

Economic concerns usually help Democrats, but this year, Democrats are in control.

Republican lead on most less important issues

BUT…Americans like the Republican Party even less than they like Democrats!

2010 National Congressional Ballot - Latest Poll August 22, 2010

LESS THAN 10 WEEKS TO GO!

THE ECONOMY AND THE VOTERS: 2010

Kathleen A. Frankovic

Hawaii Economic Association

August 26, 2010