Keith HallCommissioner

Bureau of Labor StatisticsNovember 2010

The Economy Today: What our measures tell us about the

current labor market

2

3

235 25 12 22

37 4713

-2 -7

6

-6

27

-19 -9

121

-53 -63 -49

3

-39

38

-11-26

-2-23

5072

381

-236

-183

-144-148

-8

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Over-the-month change, 2008-10

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, November 5, 2010.

B-19. Employment in government

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Note: Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

4

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34

Inde

x w

here

firs

t mon

th o

f the

rece

ssio

n =

100

Month

B-21. Index of local government employment from beginning of recession, seasonally adjusted

1990

2001

2007

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, November 5, 2010 Note: Business cycle peak as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

Civilian unemployment rate1990-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010.

5

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Unemployment rate = 9.6% in Oct. 2010

Civilian labor force and unemployment levels, 2007-2010

6

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands

Note: The shaded area represents a recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010.

7

8

58.0

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

58.0

59.0

60.0

61.0

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

October 2010 Level: 58.3

Change: -0.2

Employment-population ratio1990-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010.Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index. 9

Concurrent Indicators

January 2009

11

12

13

14

Industries

16

4,400

4,900

5,400

5,900

6,400

6,900

7,400

7,900

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

Thou

sand

s

Construction employment, 1990-2010, seasonally adjusted

October 2010 = 5,625,000

Sep 96

Division of Current Employment Statistics, National Estimates Branch,  Release Date:  November 5, 2010Created by: Adam Hadi X16465  Supervisor:  Angie Clinton X16551

17

18

19

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

14,000

14,500

15,000

15,500

16,000

2000-10

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey, November 5, 2010.Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Most recent 2 months of data are preliminary.

B-13. Employment in retail trade

Seasonally adjusted, in thousands

October 2010

Level: 14,488.3

Change: +27.9

YEAR SEPT. LEVEL OCT. NOV. DEC.

PERCENT BUILDUP

THRU OCT.

2005-06 8,264.0 120.6 392.7 199.2 1.5

2006-07 8,241.3 150.8 423.4 185.7 1.8

2007-08 8,442.1 108.4 462.2 204.9 1.3

2008-09 8,292.8 74.0 259.1 140.8 0.9

2009-10 7,877.1 66.7 335.7 152.2 0.8

Average 8,223.5 104.1 374.6 176.6 1.3

2010-11 7,888.6 146.0 1.9

Note:

RETAIL TRADE

(unadjusted, in thousands)Holiday Season Employment Buildup/Layoff

Includes employment only from Furniture and home furnishings stores, Electronics and appliance stores, Other specialty food stores, Health and personal care stores, Clothing and clothing accessories stores, Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores, General merchandise stores, Miscellaneous store retailers, and Electronic shopping and mail-order houses.

OVER-THE-MONTH CHANGE

20

21

Household Survey

Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment 1992-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010. 23

High school graduates, no college

Bachelor's degree and higher Some college or associate degree

Less than a high school diploma

Unemployment rates for whites, blacks or African Americans, and persons of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity 1990-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

24

Blacks or African-Americans

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

Whites

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010.

Alternative measures of labor underutilization 1994-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

25

U-4U-5

U-6

U-3 Unemployment rate U-2

U-1

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010.

Long-term unemployment rate27 weeks and over, 1994-2010

Seasonally adjusted, percent

26

Long-term unemployment rate =4.0% in October 2010

Unemployment rate

Long-term unemployment rate

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, November 5, 2010.

Comparisons with Prior Recoveries

28

29

30

31

32

Components of private sector gross job gains and gross job losses at opening and closing establishments, seasonally

adjusted, March 1999 – December 2009

33