the effect of gia models on mass-balance estimates in antarctica riccardo riva, brian gunter, bert...
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The effect of GIA models on mass-balance estimates in
Antarctica
Riccardo Riva, Brian Gunter, Bert Vermeersen, Roderik Lindenbergh and Hugo Schotman
Department of Earth Observation and Space Systems (DEOS)Delft University of Technology
GRACE Science Team Meeting, Potsdam, 17 October 2007
Introduction
• Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA):• Ice model (ice distribution at LGM, melting history)• Earth model (lithospheric thickness, mantle viscosity, lateral
variations)
• Secular geoid changes:• Surface mass variations• Internal mass redistribution (GIA, seismo-tectonic processes,
…)
• Antarctic mass variability:• Snow accumulation up to 2000 Gt/yr• Predicted unbalance up to 200 Gt/yr
Ice models: IJ05 and ICE-5G
IJ05 by Ivins and James (2006):
• for Antarctica
• mainly from geological data
• free from a specific Earth model
• local constraints on total ice melt
• earlier and gradual deglaciation
• ice melting in East Antarctica
mainly along the coast
ICE-5G by Peltier (2004):
• for the whole Earth
• mainly from sea-level data
• tied to Earth model VM2
• global constraints on total ice
melt
• later and sudden deglaciation
• ice melting also on internal
East Antarctica
Antarctic eustatic sea-level rise from LGM
Ice load at 21 kyr before present (LGM)
IJ05 ICE-5G
Ice load at 11 kyr before present
IJ05 ICE-5G
Ice load at 7 kyr before present
IJ05 ICE-5G
Present-day GIA
IJ05 ICE-5G
RL04 GSM mass variability (2006-2003)
GIA-corrected GRACE
GRACE - IJ05 GRACE - ICE-5G
GIA variability I: IJ05
Min: 40 Gt/yr(litho 120, UM 1021, LM 1023)
Max: 90 Gt/yr(litho 65, UM 1021, LM 4x1021)
GIA variability II: ICE-5G
Min: 25 Gt/yr(litho 120, UM 1020, LM 1021)
Max: 150 Gt/yr(litho 65, UM 1021, LM 1022)
GIA variability III: upper vs. lower mantle viscosityand lithospheric thickness
GIA: northern hemisphere contribution
Ice model: ICE-5GEarth model: VM2
Mass change: 17 Gt/yr
Antarctic mass change estimates
• IJ05: 82 ± 25 Gt/yr• ICE-5G: 105 ± 64 Gt/yr
• GRACE: 44 ± 20 Gt/yr
• GRACE - IJ05: -38 ± 32 Gt/yr (0.10 mm/yr e.s.l.)• GRACE - ICE-5G: -61 ± 67 Gt/yr (0.15 mm/yr
e.s.l.)
Conclusions
• Antarctic ice mass loss derived from GRACE is in the range 0-120 Gt/yr, (0-3 mm/yr e.s.l.) depending on the GIA model (40-170 Gt/yr).
• Due to different ice distribution and deglaciation history, IJ05 andICE-5G have very different GIA signatures, especially regarding their response to mantle viscosity.
• Peak GIA values are mostly smaller than GRACE values, but GIA total mass change can still be larger due to its positiveness.
• GIA due to ice loads in the northern hemisphere, though locally small, represents and important contribution to the total mass change.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
1 confidence band
Gig
ato
ns
(GT
)
Months since October 2003
Total Mass Difference (TMD) TMD - IJ05 TMD - ICE5G
-76.2 GT/yr
-54.8 GT/yr
44.3 GT/yr
RL04 GSM Mass Variability
GIA: West vs. East Antarctica
Leakage I
Leakage II