the elbe 2002 case daniela jacob, stefan hagemann, sven kotlarski philip lorenz, susanne pfeifer,...
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The Elbe 2002 Case
Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Daniela Jacob, Stefan Hagemann, Sven Kotlarski Philip Lorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf PodzunLorenz, Susanne Pfeifer, Ralf Podzun Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyMax-Planck-Institut for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
heavy precipitation heavy precipitation
flooding, land slides…..flooding, land slides…..
heat waves heat waves
drought, fires…..drought, fires…..
local to regional extension with high impact to local to regional extension with high impact to societysociety
Will Europe face more extremes?
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Dresden, August 2002Dresden, August 2002
• Century flood of Rhine and Moselle in December 1993Century flood of Rhine and Moselle in December 1993
• Century flood again of Rhine and Moselle in January 1995Century flood again of Rhine and Moselle in January 1995
• Century flood of the Oder in July 1997Century flood of the Oder in July 1997
• Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance in May 1999Flood of the Danube and Lake Constance in May 1999
• Extensive and long-lasting floods in western Europe, inExtensive and long-lasting floods in western Europe, in particular south England and Wales, in the autumn of 2000 particular south England and Wales, in the autumn of 2000
• Flood of the Vistula in July 2001 Flood of the Vistula in July 2001
• Flood of the Danube in August 2002Flood of the Danube in August 2002
• Century flood of the Elbe in August 2002Century flood of the Elbe in August 2002
• Extreme precipitation and dreadful floods in southernExtreme precipitation and dreadful floods in southern France in September 2002 France in September 2002
• Severe flooding in parts along German rivers in JanuarySevere flooding in parts along German rivers in January 2003 2003
source: Spiegel Nr. 7 2003; Quarterly report of the DWD, special topic July 2003source: Spiegel Nr. 7 2003; Quarterly report of the DWD, special topic July 2003
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Elbe catchment area
A = 148.268
km2
(65.6 % D, 33.7 % CZ)
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Rudolf & Rapp (2003) :
The century flood of the river elbe in August 2002: synoptic weather development and climatological aspects
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Aus Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2002) : Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Aus Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (2002) : Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Dresden Wittenberg Magdeburg
Wittenberge Neu Darchau
Catchments
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Precipitation [mm / 72h]
catchment REMO climate REMO forecast Observations *
Elbe 52 (65%) 68 (83%) 80
Dresden 82 (82%) 89 (90%) 99
Magdeburg 64 (72%) 71 (79%) 89
Wittenberge 58 (68%) 74 (87%) 85
Wittenberg 82 (80%) 91 (89%) 102
Neu Darchau 56 (70%) 72 (92%) 79
All data: 2002-08-11 06:00 UTC to 2002-08-14 06:00 UTC
* Observations taken from: Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde: „Das Augusthochwasser 2002 im Elbegebiet“
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
REMO + HD, DRESDEN
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
REMO + HD, Wittenberg
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
REMO + HD, Magdeburg
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
Is it possible to simulate such extreme precipitation events as sub grid scale processes in regional climate models (this is a prerequisite for climate change studies)?
Which role plays the microphysics?
Microphysics versus realistic simulation of the synoptic scale?
Conclusions / Questions
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Daniela Jacob, WMO/ ICMW, Hamburg, July 2004
The COSMOS project- a community effort to build and use an ESM with focus on specific regions
If you like to join COSMOS, please contact [email protected]