The electoral consequences of postal voting at the 2005 general election

Colin Rallings & Michael ThrasherLGC Elections Centre, University of Plymouth

Paper presented at the Elections, Opinion Polls and Parties Annual Conference,9-11 September 2005, Essex University.

Data collected and some analyses conducted for the Electoral Commission. Not for quotation without prior permission.

Outline

The nature of the postal vote electorate The nature of the postal voter Some aspects of the increase in postal voters

The postal electorate

The postal electorate in 2005

Postal ballots

issued

% electors with

postal ballot

Change

2001-5

UK* 5,362,501 12.1 +8.1

GB* 5,334,821 12.4 +8.4

England* 4,739,753 12.8 +8.7

N. Ireland 27,680 2.4 -0.2

Scotland 312,036 8.1 +5.4

Wales 283,032 12.7 +7.8

* Some or all data are missing for 35 constituencies in England and 1 in Wales

Correlates of postal electorate

% prof/manager .048

% owner-occ .010

% renting -.006

% aged 18-24 .036

% aged 65+ .031

% degree .005

% no religion -.059

% no car -.009

% non-white -.064

% majority 2001 .004

Regional aspects of postal electorate

% electors with

postal ballot

Change

2001-5

East Midlands* 13.5 +9.7

Eastern 12.1 +7.3

London 10.9 +7.2

North East* 19.3 +13.6

North West* 12.7 +9.0

South East 12.3 +8.2

South West 13.8 +9.1

West Midlands 10.7 +7.4

Yorks & the Humber* 14.2 +10.5

* All-postal voting at 2004 European/local elections

Distribution of postal electorate by constituency

2005 % electorate issued with pv

44.040.0

36.032.0

28.024.0

20.016.0

12.08.0

4.0

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Std. Dev = 5.23

Mean = 12.4

N = 626.00

Effects of local election postal pilots

2002/3 all-postal pilots

% electors with

postal ballot

Change

2001-5

Pilot 18.3 +13.3

No pilot 11.4 +7.6

Party incumbency and postal electorate

2001 winner % electors with

postal ballot

Change

2001-5

Labour 12.5 +8.6

Conservative 11.6 +7.6

LD 12.6 +8.4

2001 majority and increase in postal electors

% majority 2001 change 2001-5

0 to 5 +8.6 

5 to 10 +8.4

10 to 20 +8.0

Over 20 +8.7

The postal voter

The postal voter in 2005

% turnout postal votes as

mean % of

valid votes cast

UK 76.6 15.0

GB 76.6 15.4

England 76.5 16.0

Northern Ireland 86.3 3.0

Scotland 76.4 10.2

Wales 78.2 15.6

Postal voters by English region

* All-postal voting at 2004 European/local elections

postal votes as % of

valid votes cast

East Midlands* 16.7

Eastern 14.3

London 13.7

North East* 25.1

North West* 17.3

South East 14.8

South West 16.5

West Midlands 13.3

Yorkshire & The Humber* 18.6

Distribution of postal voters by constituency

2005 postal votes as % of total votes counted

56.052.0

48.044.0

40.036.0

32.028.0

24.020.0

16.012.0

8.04.0

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Std. Dev = 6.71

Mean = 15.5

N = 607.00

All-postal pilots and postal voters

2002/3 all-postal pilots Postal votes as % of valid votes cast

Pilot 23.8

No Pilot 14.2

Party incumbency and postal voters

2001 winner Postal votes as % of valid

votes cast

Labour 15.7

Conservative 13.9

LD 15.2

Comparing postal and in-person turnout

Mean % of

postal

voters casting

valid vote

Change

2001-5

Mean % of in-

person

voters casting

valid vote

Change

2001-5

GB 76.4 -3.2 59.3 +1.2

England 76.4 -3.1 59.2 +1.2

Scotland 77.2 -3.1 59.3 +1.8

Wales 75.0 -3.6 60.7 +0.1

Increases in postal votes and change in turnout

% point increase in postal votes cast 2001-5

overall % point change

in turnout since 2001

Less than 4 +1.3

4 to 6 +1.8

6 to 8 +2.2

8 to 10 +2.5

10 or more +2.4

Some aspects of increased postal voting

Comparing in-person and all-postal voting

rank of overall turnout

64

1

60

1

56

1

52

1

48

1

44

1

40

1

36

1

32

1

28

1

24

1

20

1

16

1

12

1

81

411

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

in person turnout

postal turnout

overall turnout

Staffordshire S. is excluded

Postal turnout higher than expected

Doncaster Central Gosport Cambridge

Postal turnout is lower than expected

Hull West and Hessle Liverpool Garston Solihull

A simple model of postal voter turnout

Unstandardised

CoefficientsStandardised Coefficients

Beta

(Constant) 46.68** (1.69)

2005 valid in person turnout 0.51** (0.03) .584

R2=0.34; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.01 level

Postal voting – the regional effect

2005 valid in person turnout

10090807060504030

2005

val

id p

v tu

rnou

t

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

compulsory pv

YES

no

Postal voting – the experiments effect

2005 valid in person turnout

10090807060504030

2005

val

id p

v tu

rnou

t

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

pv experiments

YES

no

Modelling the 2005 postal vote turnout

Unstandardised

CoefficientsStandardised Coefficients

Beta

(Constant) 48.95** (2.71)

2005 valid in person turnout 0.48** (0.04) 0.56

pv experiments 2002-2003 1.61** (0.57) 0.09

Compulsory pv 3.31** (0.47) 0.24

2001 majority shares -0.08** (0.02) -0.20

R2=0.42; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.01 level

Was the spread of postal voters political?

Unstandardised Coefficients

Standardised Coefficients Beta

(Constant) 7.34** (0.31)

pv experiments 2002-2003 5.00** (0.50) 0.38

Compulsory pv 1.73** (0.41) 0.17

2001 majority shares -0.002 (0.01) -0.005

Dependent variable is percentage point change in postal ballots issued as a percentage of total electorate

R2=0.20; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.01 level

Did the increase in postal voters help Labour?

Unstandardised

Coefficients

(Constant) -0.83 (0.62)

pv experiments 2002-2003 -1.12* (0.47)

Party control of seat prior to 2005: Conservative

-3.94** (0.59)

Labour

-5.58** (0.59)

Change in party control 2001/5 -2.66** (0.58)

2001 majority shares -0.05** (0.01)

Percentage points change in postal votes as % of total votes

0.09** (0.03)

Dependent variable is percentage point change in Labour vote share 2001-5

Data are for England only; R2=0.28; standard errors in brackets; ** 0.05 level; * 0.01 level