The Employment Landscape of Rural OregonA Report from the Oregon Employment Department

Damon Runberg, Regional Economist

Oregon’s economy is currently near full employment after recovering from the recession over 4 years ago

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14.0%

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Dec-

07

Apr-

08

Aug-

08

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Seas

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ly A

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Une

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farm

Em

ploy

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Employment Unemployment Rate

However, the recovery from the Great Recession has been uneven15 of Oregon’s 23 rural counties remain below peak.

Rural Oregon

100%

Metropolitan Oregon 112%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 100

104

108

112

116

120

124

128

132

136

140

144

148

Perc

ent o

f Pre

viou

s Pea

k Em

ploy

men

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Months Since Previous Peak

Rural Oregon, for the purposes of our report, included any county characterized as “nonmetro” in federal data sources.

Defining Rural Oregon by County

Baker

Benton

Clackamas

ClatsopColumbia

Coos

Crook

Curry

Deschutes

Douglas

Gilliam

Grant

Harney

Hood River

Jackson

Jefferson

Josephine

Klamath Lake

Lane

Lincoln

Linn

Malheur

Marion

MorrowMultnomah

Polk

Sherman

Tillamook

UmatillaUnion

Wallowa

Wasco

Washington

Wheeler

Yamhill

Urban or Metro

Rural or Nonmetro

Oregon has 23 rural (nonmetro) counties

13 urban (metro) counties.

Rural Oregon had 244,000 jobs in 2018 …about 13 percent of statewide employment.

Defining Rural Oregon by County

Baker

Benton

Clackamas

ClatsopColumbia

Coos

Crook

Curry

Deschutes

Douglas

Gilliam

Grant

Harney

Hood River

Jackson

Jefferson

Josephine

Klamath Lake

Lane

Lincoln

Linn

Malheur

Marion

MorrowMultnomah

Polk

Sherman

Tillamook

UmatillaUnion

Wallowa

Wasco

Washington

Wheeler

Yamhill

Urban or Metro

Rural or Nonmetro

~76% private-sector jobs

~24% government jobs

12 of the top 15 highest rates of unemployment are ruralBut, levels of unemployment are at or near historically low levels

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

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Unemployment Rates in Oregon Counties Current Rate and Max for 2007-2009 Recession, Seasonally Adjusted

Current Recession Max Lowest since 1990

Job expansion most notable along the Columbia River, the Willamette Valley, and Deschutes County

Bulk of jobs lost were from high-wage industries, but early jobs gains were concentrated in lower-wage industries

-9,010

-6,129

-11,374

13,721

10,114

6,016

-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Lower-wage industries

Mid-wage industries

Higher-wage industries

Net Change in Number of Jobs

Rural Oregon Lost Many High-Wage Jobs in RecessionNonmetro Counties Private-Sector

Job Loss and Job Growth*

2Q2009-2Q20162Q2007-2Q2009

Source: Oregon unemployment insurance wage records

*after nearly seven years of recovery

+

+

+

Job recovery in rural communities slower due to industry composition

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Private sector

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Financial activities

Information

Mining, logging, and construction

Manufacturing

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Leisure and hospitality

Public sector

Rural Percentage Point Difference from Urban Industry Employment Concentrations

How Does Rural Oregon Compare with Urban Oregon?

An aging workforce leading to more retirements and workforce challenges

0%

10%

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80%

90%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Perc

ent o

f Rur

al O

rego

n W

orkf

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Rural Oregon's Workforce Much Older Today

55 and Older

25 to 54

24 and Younger

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics

Replacing retiring workers a challenge with slower population growth

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0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

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Slower projected job growth in rural communities, but opportunities will abound do to retirements and churn

17%

20%

22%

24%

25%

25%

27%

28%

30%

32%

34%

39%

40%

83%

80%

78%

76%

75%

75%

73%

72%

70%

68%

66%

61%

60%

0% 100%

Southeast Oregon

South Coast

Northeast Oregon

South Central Oregon

Columbia Basin

Northwest Oregon

Douglas County

Rogue Valley

Mid-Valley

Columbia Gorge

Lane County

Portland Tri-County

Central Oregon

Share of Total Regional Job Openings

Most Job Openings Occur Due to Replacement, 2014-2024Growth Openings Replacement Openings

Join the conversation:Twitter @EastSlopeEcon

Damon Runberg, Regional EconomistDamon.M.Runberg@oregon.gov

541-706-0779