the end of broadcast media and publishing's hidden radicalism - robert wheaton - tech forum...
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The End of Broadcast Media and Publishing’s Hidden RadicalismRobert Wheaton Chief Operating Officer Penguin Random House Canada @rjwheaton
PUBLISHING DATA CHAOS HOPEFive ideas about publishing’s future
We publish too many books, no one gets their work done, and we make decisions from partial data
Two Inventions
1
The Publishing Business Model
1. THE PUBLISHING BUSINESS MODEL
2. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
3. HOW TO STRENGTHEN IT
1. THE PUBLISHING BUSINESS MODEL
2. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
3. HOW TO STRENGTHEN IT RESPONSIBLY
2
?
PUBLISHING DATA CHAOS HOPE
“the end of broadcast media”
“the end of broadcast media”
1. Decline in reach of traditional (mass audience) media
2. Decline in reach traditional (centralized buying) retail
3. Fracturing of “mainstream” audiences
U.S. Recorded Music Revenues by Format (1999-2015)
U.S. Recorded Music Revenues by Format (1999-2015)
h!ps://www.wsj.com/articles/plummeting-newspaper-ad-revenue-sparks-new-wave-of-changes-1476955801
h!ps://www.wsj.com/articles/plummeting-newspaper-ad-revenue-sparks-new-wave-of-changes-1476955801
h!p://media-cmi.com/downloads/CMI_Discussion_Paper_Digital_Divides_082015.pdf
h!p://media-cmi.com/downloads/CMI_Discussion_Paper_Digital_Divides_082015.pdf
Where were you browsing/searching when you became aware of this book? (N=2,690)
How Canadians Buy Books 2015, BookNet Canada (September 2016)
1. Decline in reach of traditional (mass audience) media
2. Decline in reach traditional (centralized buying) retail
3. Fracturing of “mainstream” audiences
“Reading a paper book… is a statement, a human being's answer to being
increasingly surrounded, and now even threatened, by machines…”
–Leonid Bershidsky, BLOOMBERG
business model is destiny
“The Long Tail”
'-
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Publishing
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1. PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
2. ADVANCES PAID
3. RISK GATE-CHECKS
ACQUISITION PLANNINGSALES CYCLE & PRE-RELEASE
ON-SALE & MARKETING BACKLIST
Submission enthusiasm Sales in other territories Acquisition auction/negotiation Acquisition P&L Foreign rights sale
Internal launch enthusiasm Sales team response & planning Marketing response & planning Announcement response
Media/publicity response Library holds Account response (various channels) Initial orders Call-to-print P&L Galley/ARC requests Excerpt placement/sale
Point of sale data Bestseller lists Media reviews Reorders Point of sale forecast Library circulations
Rinse & repeat (second format) School & academic adoption
ACQUISITION PLANNINGSALES CYCLE & PRE-RELEASE
ON-SALE & MARKETING BACKLIST
Submission enthusiasm Sales in other territories Acquisition auction/negotiation Acquisition P&L Foreign rights sale Indie publishing performance Wa"pad performance Author social media presence
Internal launch enthusiasm Sales team response & planning Marketing response & planning Announcement response
Media/publicity response Library holds Account response (various channels) Initial orders Call-to-print P&L Galley/ARC requests Excerpt placement/sale Pre-orders Webpage performance Cover reveal Asset / metadata performance Goodreads shelf adds Netgalley response Blogger/influence response
Point of sale data Bestseller lists Media reviews Reorders Point of sale forecast Library circulations Online reviews Online bookclub adoptions eBook price promotion Reader response data Digital advertising Social media asset Online word-of-mouth
Rinse & repeat (second format) School & academic adoption Consumer insights data
ACQUISITION PLANNINGSALES CYCLE & PRE-RELEASE
ON-SALE & MARKETING BACKLIST
Submission enthusiasm Sales in other territories Acquisition auction/negotiation Acquisition P&L Foreign rights sale Indie publishing performance Wa"pad performance Author social media presence
Internal launch enthusiasm Sales team response & planning Marketing response & planning Announcement response
Media/publicity response Library holds Account response (various channels) Initial orders Call-to-print P&L Galley/ARC requests Excerpt placement/sale Pre-orders Webpage performance Cover reveal Asset / metadata performance Goodreads shelf adds Netgalley response Blogger/influence response
Point of sale data Bestseller lists Media reviews Reorders Point of sale forecast Library circulations Online reviews Online bookclub adoptions eBook price promotion Reader response data Digital advertising Social media asset Online word-of-mouth
Rinse & repeat (second format) School & academic adoption Consumer insights data
We publish too many books
1. THE PUBLISHING BUSINESS MODEL
2. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
pragmatic theory of truth
“The best way to good ideas is more ideas”
–Peter Coughlan, IDEO
climate change
job automation
globalization
“Erratic demand is more and more the norm in our business”
–Noah Genner
What happens when you introduce social signals into a market for cultural products?
1. Increase inequality in market share for individual products 2.Increase unpredictability in which products will achieve
highest market share
Source: Experimental Study of Inequality and Unpredictability in an Artificial Cultural Market https://www.princeton.edu/~mjs3/salganik_dodds_watts06_full.pdf
Publishing
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1. THE PUBLISHING BUSINESS MODEL
2. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
3. HOW TO STRENGTHEN IT
PUBLISHING DATA CHAOS HOPE
2
hindsight refraction device
hindsight refraction device
hindsight refraction device
ACQUISITION PLANNINGSALES CYCLE & PRE-RELEASE
ON-SALE & MARKETING BACKLIST
Submission enthusiasm Sales in other territories Acquisition auction/negotiation Acquisition P&L Foreign rights sale Indie publishing performance Wa"pad performance Author social media presence
Internal launch enthusiasm Sales team response & planning Marketing response & planning Announcement response
Media/publicity response Library holds Account response (various channels) Initial orders Call-to-print P&L Galley/ARC requests Excerpt placement/sale Pre-orders Webpage performance Cover reveal Asset / metadata performance Goodreads shelf adds Netgalley response Blogger/influence response
Point of sale data Bestseller lists Media reviews Reorders Point of sale forecast Library circulations Online reviews Online bookclub adoptions eBook price promotion Reader response data Digital advertising Social media asset Online word-of-mouth
Rinse & repeat (second format) School & academic adoption Consumer insights data
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data
negotiate BRD receive (or, scrape) validate clean map warehouse headphones & sql time query normalize, outliers, etc. explain, converse ignore the “exception proves the rule” people benchmark dashboard report exceptions
CONFUSION
ENLIGHTENMENT
negotiate BRD receive (or, scrape) validate clean map warehouse headphones & sql time query normalize, outliers, etc. explain, converse ignore the “exception proves the rule” people benchmark dashboard report exceptions
CONFUSION
ENLIGHTENMENT
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from consumers
hindsight refraction device
A/B test
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from consumers
open a store
publish online
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from consumers
ACQUISITION PLANNINGSALES CYCLE & PRE-RELEASE
ON-SALE & MARKETING BACKLIST
Submission enthusiasm Sales in other territories Acquisition auction/negotiation Acquisition P&L Foreign rights sale Indie publishing performance Wa"pad performance Author social media presence
Internal launch enthusiasm Sales team response & planning Marketing response & planning Announcement response
Media/publicity response Library holds Account response (various channels) Initial orders Call-to-print P&L Galley/ARC requests Excerpt placement/sale Pre-orders Webpage performance Cover reveal Asset / metadata performance Goodreads shelf adds Netgalley response Blogger/influence response
Point of sale data Bestseller lists Media reviews Reorders Point of sale forecast Library circulations Online reviews Online bookclub adoptions eBook price promotion Reader response data Digital advertising Social media asset Online word-of-mouth
Rinse & repeat (second format) School & academic adoption Consumer insights data
— a digression on process —
–Encyclopedia Britannica
“The bildungsroman traditionally ends on a positive note, though its action may be tempered by resignation and nostalgia. If the grandiose dreams of the hero’s youth are over, so are many foolish mistakes and painful disappointments, and, especially in 19th-century novels, a life of usefulness lies ahead. In the 20th century and beyond, however, the bildungsroman more o#en ends in resignation or death.”
CMS
Assemble and send Excel POS reports
Inventory reports, same thing
Enter sales estimates
Build one-off catalogues
Aggregate preorder reporting
Maintain media contacts in discrete lists
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from your audiences
PRACTICE ABOVE PROCESS • inspect processes
why does my screen look different from yours?
what are permission groups?
but I don’t want anyone to see the dra# yet
what do you mean there are “hidden characters”?
Instinct (n.) 1. The accretion of small experiences which aggregate
to judgement in ways which resist subsequent justification at the granular level.
2.What young people think experienced people say when they can't be bothered to do any work.
Sub TwoCompsSocial()
'Open the Excel workbook. Change this to where you stored the EXCEL FILE xlsFile = "C:\Users\apunja\Desktop\QuickDeck\Sales ops Presentation\SampleData.xlsx" Dim OWB As Excel.Workbook Set OWB = Excel.Application.Workbooks.Open(xlsFile) Dim WS As Excel.Worksheet Set WS = OWB.Worksheets(1) 'Set the Images path Dim strImagePath As String strImagePath = "C:\Users\apunja\Desktop\QuickDeck\Sales ops Presentation\Images\" 'reference the template slides Set myPres = Application.ActivePresentation Set firSl = myPres.Slides(1) Set secSl = myPres.Slides(2) 'Loop through each used row in Column A For i = 1 To WS.Range("A65353").End(xlUp).Row
ActivePresentation.Slides(1).Copy myPres.Slides.Paste (myPres.Slides.Count + 1) x = myPres.Slides.Count myPres.Slides(2).Copy myPres.Slides.Paste (myPres.Slides.Count + 1) y = myPres.Slides.Count 'Forma!ing a Date value (clean this up later) osd = Format(WS.Cells(i, 1), "[$-en-US]mmmm d, yyyy;@") tle = 3 isbn = WS.Cells(i, 4) authr = WS.Cells(i, 5)
Sub TwoCompsSocial()
'Open the Excel workbook. Change this to where you stored the EXCEL FILE xlsFile = "C:\Users\apunja\Desktop\QuickDeck\Sales ops Presentation\SampleData.xlsx" Dim OWB As Excel.Workbook Set OWB = Excel.Application.Workbooks.Open(xlsFile) Dim WS As Excel.Worksheet Set WS = OWB.Worksheets(1) 'Set the Images path Dim strImagePath As String strImagePath = "C:\Users\apunja\Desktop\QuickDeck\Sales ops Presentation\Images\" 'reference the template slides Set myPres = Application.ActivePresentation Set firSl = myPres.Slides(1) Set secSl = myPres.Slides(2) 'Loop through each used row in Column A For i = 1 To WS.Range("A65353").End(xlUp).Row
ActivePresentation.Slides(1).Copy myPres.Slides.Paste (myPres.Slides.Count + 1) x = myPres.Slides.Count myPres.Slides(2).Copy myPres.Slides.Paste (myPres.Slides.Count + 1) y = myPres.Slides.Count 'Forma!ing a Date value (clean this up later) osd = Format(WS.Cells(i, 1), "[$-en-US]mmmm d, yyyy;@") tle = 3 isbn = WS.Cells(i, 4) authr = WS.Cells(i, 5)
FAVOUR MAGIC — FIGHT SORCERY • be transparent • use off-the-shelf so#ware • scripting, not markup • accept the time/consensus tradeoff • data in everyone's role
FAVOUR MAGIC — FIGHT SORCERY • be transparent • use off-the-shelf so#ware • scripting, not markup • accept the time/consensus tradeoff • data in everyone's role
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from your audiences
PRACTICE ABOVE PROCESS • inspect processes • favour magic — fight sorcery • explode the content model
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from your audiences
PRACTICE ABOVE PROCESS • inspect processes • favour magic — fight sorcery • explode the content model
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from your audiences
PRACTICE ABOVE PROCESS • inspect processes • favour magic — fight sorcery • explode the content model
We publish too many books, no one gets their work done
PUBLISHING DATA CHAOS HOPE
“The best way to good ideas is more ideas”
–Peter Coughlan, IDEO
BEHAVIOUR 1. read about the Sony hack 2.assume it will happen to you 3.behave accordingly
PREVENTION • Enable two-factor authentication • Different password for every service • Don't store your passwords in a file • (It’s 2017: use a password manager) • Don't click to find out if it was suspicious or not
Gamergate
PUBLISHING DATA CHAOS HOPE
PUBLISHING DATA CHAOS HOPE
1. THE PUBLISHING BUSINESS MODEL
2. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT
3. HOW TO STRENGTHEN IT RESPONSIBLY
DATA ETHICS
DATA ETHICS • eschew data trails
DATA ETHICS • eschew data trails • gatecheck on data sharing
DATA ETHICS • eschew data trails • gatecheck on data sharing • new standards for data management
DATA ETHICS • eschew data trails • gatecheck on data sharing • new standards for data management
KEEP THE VALUE CHAIN DIVERSIFIED
We publish too many books, no one gets their work done, and we make decisions from partial data
DATA ETHICS • eschew data trails • gatecheck on data sharing • new standards for data management
KEEP THE VALUE CHAIN DIVERSIFIED
PRACTICE EMPATHY IN CHANGE
– Cornel West
“Empathy is not simply a matter of trying to imagine what others are going through, but having the will to muster enough courage
to do something about it. In a way, empathy is predicated upon hope.”
Thank you
@rjwheaton
DATA ETHICS • eschew data trails • gatecheck on data sharing • new standards for data management
KEEP THE VALUE CHAIN DIVERSIFIED
PRACTICE EMPATHY IN CHANGE
DECREASE UNKNOWNS • monitor demand signals • find tangential demand signals • share data • learn from your readers
PRACTICE ABOVE PROCESS • inspect processes • favour magic — fight sorcery • explode the content model