the end of growth?
TRANSCRIPT
The end of growth?
Nicolas Meilhan Member of les Econoclastes and of ASPO France
0 500 1000 1500 2000
World GDP - 0 to 2008 -
“Anyone who believes in indefinite growth in anything physical, on a physically finite planet, is either mad or an economist”
Kenneth Boulding
3
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
World GDP - Billions of 1990 dollars, 0 to 2008 -
Source: Angus Maddison
2008
1988
1964
1950
1870
Oil is by far the main source of energy (and economic growth)
Sources: Shilling et al., 1977, et BP Statistical Review, 2013
Evolution of world primary energy consumption - Million tons of oil equivalent , 1860 to 2012 -
4
30%
27%
22%
8% 6% 4% 2%
80% Biomass
Nuclear
Natural gas
Coal Oil
Hydro
Wind, solar & geothermal
Four of the last five global recessions were preceded by an oil shock
Economic Recession vs. Oil Price
Source: Steven Kopits, June 2009, Douglas Westwood, Oil: What price can America afford?, EIA, NBER
5
Can we still grow our economy if we run out of oil?
Growth in GDP , oil supply and energy supply - Three years average growth, world ,1976 to 2013 -
6
Source: Gail E. Tverberg, « Energy and the Economy - Twelve Basic Principles », Our Finite World, August 2014
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
3 y
ea
rs a
ve
rag
e g
row
th r
ate
Pétrole Energie PIB
Données : BP 2014 & USDA 2013
Oil Energy GDP
Higher cost new oil projects require $80/bbl+ oil price to be profitable …
7
Breakeven of non-producing & recently on stream oil assets - Marginal Top 400 oil fields -
Bre
ake
ven
pri
ce (
$U
S/b
arr
el)
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative peak production (thousands barrels per day)
…while oil demand (hence GDP per capita) contracts when oil price surpasses $120
8
Oil
pri
ce in
$2
01
1 p
er b
arr
el
Oil price vs. Crude oil extraction - 1965 à 2013 -
Source : Jean Laherrere, ASPO France, EIA
Oil extraction in millions barrels per day
We will extract all the oil that we can afford –less than $120 per barrel and we’ll leave the more expensive in the ground!
Source : Patrick Brocorens, ASPO Belgique
9
All liquid fuels extraction - 1900 to 2100 -
Extr
act
ion
in b
illio
ns
of
oil
ba
rrel
s p
er y
ear
Peak “all oil” is already a reality since January 2011 putting aside US shale oil production…
Crude oil extraction - January 2009 to September 2014-
Source : EIA
Extr
act
ion
in m
illio
ns
of
b
arr
els
of
oil
per
da
y
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
10
60
65
70
75
80World - USA USA
… which might peak as soon as 2015
11
US crude oil extraction - Millions barrels per day, January 2012 to May 2015 -
Extr
act
ion
in m
illio
ns
of
b
arr
els
of
oil
per
da
y
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Jan
15
Tho
usa
nd
s
Source : EIA
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9.5
No
v 1
4
Dec
14
Jan
15
Feb
15
Mar
15
Ap
r 1
5
May
15
Peak « all oil » is likely to mean the growth party is over
12 Source : Graham M. Turner 2012 – « On the Cust of Global Collapse? Updated Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Historical Data » GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, Volume 21, Number 2, June 2012, pp.116-124