The End of Industrialism“Going Home”

Planning for Hard Times

Presented by

Pat Murphy, Executive DirectorCommunity Solutions

Yellow Springs, OH 45387October 27, 2007

Community Solutions – Vision & Mission Vision – To reduce energy consumption everywhere in every

way through community and personal action

Mission – To provide knowledge and practices to support low energy lifestyles in the household economic sector (food, housing, transportation)

Key Assumptions Peak Oil and Climate Change are interrelated Must become “sustainable” – watchword of our times “Sustainability” can be, and must be, measured

Community Solution Historical View For 10,000 years the world was “Agrarian”

200 + years ago Industrialism began Steam Engine – James Watt – 1769 (technology) Wealth of Nations – Adam Smith – 1776 (philosophy) Fundamental to colonialism – past and present

Industrialism – based on fossil fuels, machines and competition Agrarianism – based on land, biology (water, air) and cooperation

Industrialism is not sustainable Agrarianism is sustainable

World will become more Agrarian – one way or the other An Agrarian world can include bypass surgery and Internet There are many intermediate technologies

Fossil Fuel History and Future

Major increase in coal burning from 1875 – 1925 Oil usage began in first quarter of 20th century Oil/Natural gas hyper growth from 1945 Accelerated population growth

Population Increase and CO2

From 2.4 billion people in 1945 to 6.6 billion in 2007 Fossil fuels “feed our economy” – and our population 1 pound of fossil fuel generates 2.6 pounds of CO2

1945

2007

The Beginning of the End

Running low on oil Petroleum Geologists (ASPO) All fossil fuels finite Predictions began in 1970s

Running low on atmosphere Climate scientists (NOAA) Carbon absorption finite Predictions began in 1970s

2006

Sustainability – Defined and Measured

Sustainability defined – ~ 1 ton/CO2 per person per year 20 of ~200 nations with 70% of population

Sustainable ~1 ton/person

The Industrial Century: 1930 – 2030

Olduvai Gorge Metaphor – Richard Duncan – Oil, Gas, Coal 1945 – Country still “Agrarian” – just before hyper growth Went from 3 boe/c to 12 boe/c – 4 to 1 increase

Energy (and CO2) Inequity

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Energy CO2

US OECD-L ROW

Ratio of US and OECD–L

to ROW (ROW=1)

US per capita energy use/CO2 – 7/ 8 times ROW citizens

US with 4.5% of population has generated 27% of CO2

Region % Pop.

US 4.5% 300m

OECD-L 10.5% 700m

ROW 85% 5,700m

World and U.S. Household Sector Energy

Measure of per capita barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) Each American uses more energy for food than 5.7 billion

people use for everything!

Global Use US Use

World US

The “Inconvenient” Truth

Western Industrial “life style” is threatening life itself

China & India (2.5 billion people) have chosen industrialism Consumerism replaced socialism/communism Ecological deterioration is accelerating

“What kind of world will we leave our children, grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will they say of us? Will our great grand children say, "What kind of monsters must they have been?“

– US Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Rep) ASPO 2006

Beginning the Change (to Sustainability?) Three options – Plan A, Plan B, Plan C

Plan A – Business as usual (new fuels). Same lifestyle Plan B – Replace fossil fuels with wind/solar. Same lifestyle Plan C – The Party’s Over. Change lifestyle. Cut back fuels

Plan A – Denial – Fuel Cell, Nuclear Fusion, Carbon Capture The record is bleak. Big potential for war.

Plan B – Substitution – Wind, solar, biofuels Wind & solar still about 1%. Agri-fuels (food of the poor)

Plan C – Redesign – Curtailment and Community Use “intermediate” technologies Reduce consumption – change life style Focus on household sector – food, house, car

Community Solutions Targets

Vision & Mission Summarized To reduce energy consumption through community and

personal action in the household economic sector including food, housing, and transportation

Agrarian Food System – This presentation

House Deep Retrofit – Linda Wigington

Smart Jitney – Bob Steinbach

U.S. Food System – “10 for 1” Ratio

Replaced labor with fossil fuels

From .05 to 10 fossil calories

Labor efficient, energy negative land inefficient, soil destructive

Varies by food type All foods – 1 for 10 Factory meat – 1 for 16 Sodas – 1 for 30

ROW (5.7 billion) is quasi Agrarian – Mostly Sustainable Takes no fossil fuel calories to provide food calories This means 25–50%, or more, of people grow food

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Post WWII Policy – Destroy Family Farm

In 1945 US was still “Agrarian” to a degree

US “Declared War” on Farmers in late 1940s Ezra Benson – Eisenhower era (1950s) “Get Big or Get Out” Earl Butz – Nixon era (1960s) “Adapt or Die” Battle was over by the 1970s

Needed to Slander Agrarians

We are: worldly–wise, cool, hip, sophisticated, blasé, trendy, upscale, tony, chic (we being machine people)

They are: provincial, unsophisticated, hayseeds, bumpkins, yokels, hicks, peasants, hillbillies, natives, indigenous, county-cousins, rednecks, clodhoppers, (they being land people)

Our work – empowering. Theirs – back breaking & mind numbing

Probably the biggest blunder (or crime) in history Hurt 100s of millions of people around the world

Including 10s of millions of Americans Assault continues with WTO programs Indigenous farmers (U.S. & worldwide) are becoming serfs

Industrial vs. Agrarian Comparison

Agrarian countries use more labor – for healthier foods, soils Agricultural workers: US 1%, China 38%

China gets 6 times the calories per acre – while preserving soil

US generates 6 times the CO2 per person

Country US China Ratio

Population (106) 300 1,320 4.400

Total area (acres) (106) 2,378 2,370 0.997

Cropland – acres (106) 437 306 0.700

Ag workers ((106) 3 510.8 170.267

CO2/capita 19.7 2.9 0.147

Cropland/ag workers (acres) 145.7 0.6 0.004

Cuba’s Move to Modern Agrarianism

Experienced Peak Oil 1990 Severe and Rapid

Extreme societal change Searched country for farmers

In 18 months became 80% Organic

Major reforestation program

Urban gardens 50% of vegetables

Cubans diet changed Pork to veggies

Free Medical Care/Education/Sports Few cars/goods, tiny houses

Cuba Before

Rapid change dictated

by hunger, not Fidel

Average Cuban lost 20 lbs.

Government changed land policies rapidly (like Roosevelt)

Cuba only country to achieve sustainable development award! World Wildlife Fund 2006 Living Planet report UN Human Development Index & Ecological Footprint

Understanding the Food System

Can’t manage if you can’t measure – “to measure is to know” Need to understand energy/food numbers

Ignore the Supermarkets (Agribusiness) – Look in the fields

Two key divisions of our food system Meat and Animal Products – “Feed” and Fodder

Contained Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO) Corn, Soybeans, Hay as raw materials Most of acreage devoted to this

Plants – Food Basic food is healthy – grains, vegetables, grass-fed meat Manufacturing process depletes plant food value

Harvested Acreage – The Basic Numbers

268 million acres planted – the source of our food All food is plant based – animals are intermediaries The top 3 support manufactured/CAFO products

Grains – Main Staples (Calorie) Crops

Grains are the basis of animal “manufacturing” process Limited grains for personal consumption

The Big Grain Crop – Corn

US is world’s largest corn producer 11.8 billion bushels produced in 2004 – 10 billion domestic Land provides 1,900 pounds per person per year

2,200 pounds average food weight per year per person

Little corn eaten directly – a raw material for meat and sweets 6.2 billion bushels used for CAFO meat Much of rest for High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)

“Heroin” of the food system Michael Pollan – “We are the corn people”

Grains – Wheat

Largest grain crop after corn Used primarily for human food rather than feed Domestic use 1,172 million bushels 184 pounds unprocessed wheat consumed per person

Wheat for humans is highly processed – (97% white flour) White flour (1907) is a nutritionally stripped product Vitamins added back by processors inadequate – 20 out, 4 in Raw material for poor quality manufactured foods

Processing removes fiber, vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals Fed to animals along with 79 million bushels plain wheat

Other grains – sorghum, barley, rice, oats, millet, rye – 12% Example of lack of variety

Oilseeds

Soybean – Unnatural food for animals; bad fats for humans Barely existed in early 20th century

Soybeans

US is world’s largest soybean producer 3,123 million bushels produced in 2004 2,021 million bushels used for domestic consumption 400 pounds per person per year

For animal feed and manufactured food

Soy beans consist of oil, meat, and hulls After oil extracted, carbohydrate residue fed to animals Made into harmful trans-fats (hydrogenated soybean oil)

“Cocaine” of the food system

Sunflower, peanut, canola, flaxseed, safflower, mustard – 6%

Hay – Largest crop after grains and oilseeds Largest crop after corn & soybeans

Perennial grasses/legumes used as feed 158 million tons in 2004 1,073 pounds per person

Enters American diet through beef cattle

and dairy cows

If corn provides meat, hay provides milk

Healthier Crops

Very small part of acreage planted

Priority is for bad food

Sugars, Legumes and Nuts

Sugars Sugars mostly replaced with high fructose corn syrup Sugar acreage 60% beets and 40% cane

Legumes Dried beans, dried peas and lentils Low energy replacements for CAFO products .7% U.S. harvested acreage for beans, peas and lentils Two pounds of beans about equal to one pound meat

Nuts .3% of harvested acreage for nuts Nuts can replace some CAFO meat

Fruits, Vegetables, Nuts (F-V-N)

Surprisingly small amount of acreage Americans eat about half what’s recommended

Vegetables

Vegetables divided into fresh vegetables and vegetables for processing.

30 Main Vegetables artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, lima beans, beets, broccoli,

cabbage, carrots, cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers, eggplant, endive, escarole, garlic, head lettuce, romaine and leaf lettuce, mushrooms, onions, bell peppers, potatoes, radishes, spinach, sweet potatoes, tomatoes, green peas, chili peppers, spinach, and other miscellaneous vegetables

Only 1.1% of farmland is used for growing vegetables.

Very Little Vegetable Diversity – (lbs)

Most potato consumption is French Fries

Fruits

Divided into fresh fruits and fruits for processing.

35 Main Fruits apples, apricots, avocados, bananas, cherries, cantaloupes,

cranberries, grapes, grapefruit, honeydew, kiwifruit, lemons, limes, mangoes, nectarines, oranges, papayas, peaches, pears, pineapples, plums, prunes, strawberries, tangelos, tangerines, temple oranges, watermelon, blackberries, boysenberries, cranberries, dates, figs, loganberries, olives, raspberries, and other miscellaneous fruit and berries.

1.1% of farmland allocated to fruit production

Lack of Fruit Diversity

Much of the fruit is consumed as beverages

Acreage Distribution Implications

Most of acreage for meat products and manufactured foods Corn for CAFO feed and HFCS for grocery manufacturing Soybeans for CAFO feed and hydrogenated oil for

manufactured foods Wheat for white flour

Industrialized Food Results

Bad Health $5,000 yearly medical expenses, $2,300 food expenses Cheap food contributes to bad health

Tortured animals

Lack of Diversity

Deteriorating soil

Poisoned waterways

Fossil water drawdown

Bad Food and Poor Health

U.S. is the unhealthiest of industrialized rich nations Life expectancy of 77, lower than Canada’s 80

U.S. medical costs per capita twice European countries Cheap food means expensive medical care

Two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese

Food system the main culprit Two major flaws – CAFO meat and Manufactured Foods Two major destructive foods – Corn and Soybeans

Foolishness vs. Wisdom US spends ~$2,500 for food and $5,000 for medical care EU spends ~$3,500 for food and $2,500 for medical care

Atwood Study – Poor Food Choices Nutritional Density Popularity What People Should Eat What people Eat Highest to lowest Lowest to highest Broccoli 1 Tomatoes Spinach 2 Oranges Brussels Sprouts 3 Potatoes Lima Beans 4 Lettuce Peas 5 Sweet Corn Asparagus 6 Bananas Artichokes 7 Carrots Cauliflower 8 Cabbage Sweet Potatoes 9 Onions Carrots 10 Sweet potatoes Sweet corn 11 Peas Potatoes 12 Spinach Cabbage 13 Broccoli Tomatoes 14 Lima beans Banana 15 Asparagus Lettuce 16 Cauliflower Onions 17 Brussels Sprouts Oranges 18 Artichokes

Torturing Food Animals for Cheap Meat Animals, like humans, have a natural way of life

Cows, goats, and sheep graze, pigs root, chickens scratch

CAFOs deny these natural behaviors Extreme stress (pain) for the animal No sunshine (constant artificial lighting!) No fresh air (never go outside) Many other torments Very short horrible lives

Live in fecal material (ground/air) Antibiotics required to keep animals alive High risk to human health

Animal Products – Not Grandparent’s Meat Animals earlier always part of diet

Hunting and grazing

Animals no longer graze freely Inhumane CAFO conditions

Fed wrong foods Diet injures them

Growing feed crops requires enormous amounts of fossil fuels FAO Report – Livestock's long shadow 2006 Livestock rearing creates more CO2 equivalent than cars

Americans eat twice what they used to US-271 lbs, Asia-60 lbs, Africa-40 lbs,

Central America-103 lbs

Manufactured Foods – Little Diversity

320,000 food and beverage products in U.S. Average supermarket carries 30,000- 40,000

People don’t eat 30,000 to 40,000 different things Recipes not food –combinations of white flour, corn

sweeteners & hydrogenated soybean oil with chemical flavoring & coloring

America’s “Flavor Industry” along New Jersey Turnpike Manufactures 2/3 of flavor additives sold in U.S. Flavoring/ coloring industry annual sales - $1.4 billion Also provides shaping and texturing products

Takes a lot of fossil fuels for a small number of foods

Soil Destruction & Water Drawdown Agriculture uses most of U.S water

Ogallala Drawdown occurring Irrigation vital to food supply Not sustainable

Erosion Topsoil becoming more shallow Part of giant monocultures

Quality of top soil declining – pesticides 1948–50 million lbs. 7% loss to insects 1965–35 million lbs. 1989–806 million lbs. 2000–985 million lbs. 13% loss to insects

Agrochemicals changing soil composition

Why Don’t We Know This?

Major cigarette companies are major food companies Grocery Manufacturers of America control food info Michael Pollan – “If it has a health claim, don’t eat it” $30 billion advertising for food – $10 billion for children

Conspiracy with USDA

Marion Nestle – Food Politics Explains corporate control

Recommends: Eat less, eat fruits, vegetables and whole grains, avoid junk food Following her advice would

destroy industrial agriculture And harm medical providers

Food companies control nutrition And information USDA supports agribusiness

Summary – Changing Times

Peak Oil and climate change will dramatically alter our future Can’t have 10-to-1 fossil fuel to calorie ratio any longer

At the core of the change will be a changed diet

Sustainability implies “measurable” Agrarianism Must reverse tragic move from agrarianism to industrialism From 2% of employment farmers to 25% (or more) U.S. will become more Agrarian – like it or not Agrarianism implies health–of people, animals, landscapes,

soils

Industrial Agriculture is destructive of almost everything Food consumerism is a disease, not a lifestyle

Recommendations

1. Learn – Ignorance of food system is appalling Due to deliberate action of food industry and USDA Learning includes understanding plight of workers & animals Everyone must master nutrition

2. Cut consumption to minimal healthy levels – 40% less

3. Change your diet to a healthier one – starting NOW Coming crisis cannot support current medical spending Eat seasonally and locally

4. Buy from Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) farmers Rebuild family farms

5. Plant a backyard garden – Must see food as life

Wendell Berry – The Unsettling of America “Earth’s growing numbers raises the specter of a famine more

catastrophic than the world has ever seen.” Wendell Berry: …we should be at work overhauling all our

assumptions about ourselves and what we have done….If we are heading toward apocalypse, then obviously we must undertake an ordeal of preparation. We must cleanse ourselves of slovenliness, laziness and waste. We must learn to discipline ourselves, to restrain ourselves, to need less….We must understand what the health of the earth requires, and we must put that before all other needs...let us undertake the labors of wisdom and make the necessary sacrifices of luxury and comfort”. – The Unsettling of America, 1977