the end of stuff? · source: ipfi digital music report, 2015. the end of ownership? housing &...
TRANSCRIPT
Trajectory Trends Breakfast
27th April 2017
The End of Stuff?
Introduction
“If we look on a global basis, in the
west we have probably hit peak stuff.
We talk about peak oil. I’d say we’ve
hit peak red meat, peak sugar, peak
stuff…peak home furnishings.”
- Steve Howard, CEO, IKEA
Challenging Stuff
The Experience Economy“As services, like goods
before them, increasingly
become commoditised –
think of long-distance
telephone services sold only
on price – experiences have
emerged as the next step in
what we call the progression
of economic value”.
B. Joseph Pine II &James H. Gilmore,
Harvard Business Review, 1998
Shared Experience
e.g. 86% of event organisers use ‘Attendee satisfaction’ as a metric, 73% use ‘Number of attendees’ etc.
Source: Welcome to the Experience Economy; Raconteur.net
Metrics used by event organisers to gauge an event’s
success; 2014
FOMO
6. Last minute activities (e.g. museum, cinema etc.)
7. A regular Friday/Saturday night out
8. Festivals
9. Hen/Stag Parties
10. Baby Showers & Christenings
1. Holidays
5. Concerts & Gigs
4. Dinner Parties
2. Birthday Parties
3. Engagement Parties & Weddings
Top 10 Activities Brits Fear Missing Out On20%Say missing out on social occasions
makes them feel depressed
£1463UK Average annual spend on
activities you “can’t say no to”
16%State they’re unable to say no to events
despite not being able to afford them
Source: VoucherCodes.co.uk; 2013
Cultural Capital& Connoisseurship
“Connoisseurship has never been more popular.
Long confined to the serious appreciation of high art and classical music, it is now applied to an endless
cascade of pursuits.
Leading publications, including The New York Times,
routinely discuss the connoisseurship of coffee,
cupcakes and craft beers; of cars, watches, fountain
pens, lunchboxes, stereo systems and computers; of
tacos, pizza, pickles, chocolate, mayonnaise, cutlery
and light.”
- John Peder Zane, 2013
Forms of
Capital
Economic
Social
Cultural
Source: Bourdieu, 1986
The De-materialisation of Stuff
Permanent
Downloads,
52%
Subscription
Streams Income
23%
Other
12%
Ad-supported
Streams Income
9%
Mobile Personalisation
3%
Global Digital Revenues by Sector (2014)
Source: IPFI Digital Music Report, 2015
The End of Ownership?
Housing & Ownership
69% 70% 69% 69% 69% 68% 68% 67% 66% 65% 65% 64% 63% 63% 62%
10% 10% 12% 12% 12% 14% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 19% 20% 20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Dwelling stock in England by tenure;
Percentage of total dwellings
Owner Occupied Privately Rented
57%52%
42%
33%
25%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1
Poorest
2 3 4 5
Richest
Overall
Proportion of non-owners saying they never expect to
buy a home by equivalised household income, 2015
Source: Dwelling stock estimates in England, 2014; ONS Source: Bank of England, NMG Survey, 2015
Sharing is Car-ing
54%
78%
58%
76%
37%
17%
31%
18%
7%3%
8%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Before After Before After
Longer-term Members New Members
Car ownership before and after joining
a car club
3
2
1
0
Source: Carplus Annual Survey of Car Clubs, 2015/2016
1%
2%
2%
5%
6%
9%
12%
13%
14%
37%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
My employer joined a CC and I joined through
my employer
I sold or disposed of at least one car and
joined a CC
I joined a CC to gain access to a vehicle while
studying
I live in a residential development with a
designated CC and I joined through it
Owned at least one car, but needed another
so joined a CC
A car of mine stopped working, and instead of
replacing it I joined a CC
Owned one car, but I joined a CC and sold or
disposed of the car
I joined a CC for other reasons
My household did not have a car, but
changes in life required a car so I joined a CC
My household did not have a car, so joined a
CC to gain additional personal freedom
Reasons for joining a car club (CC)
Urbanisation
1960
78%
1980
78%2000
79%
2020
84%
2040
87%
1960
34%
1980
39%
2000
47%
2020
56%
2040
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
20
40
20
45
20
50
Percentage of population at mid-year residing in
urban areas; UK, 1950 to 2050
United Kingdom Global
Source: World Urbanisation Prospects, 2014
People increasingly living in
close geographical proximity
Socioeconomic context places
people under financial pressure
‘Underuse’ of products creates
surplus which can monetised
Surplus can be ‘shared’; 2nd
homes create surplus, Airbnb
mediates use of this surplus
The Endism of Ownership
Nuanced Ownership
The Pillars of the Sharing Economy
Digital platforms that
connect spare capacity
and demand
Access over Ownership Collaborative forms of
consumption
Branded
experiences that
drive emotional
connection
Renting
Lending
Subscribing
Reselling
Swapping
Donating
Ultimately this is an economy consisting of transactions based on trust.
Source: PWC Consumer Intelligence Series – The Sharing Economy (2016)
Impact and Sectors
Source: JustPark – The Sharing Economy Index
Source: BusinessInsider
The Library of Things & The Economy of Hours
Hybrid Experiences
“In our society, the public space of the
social movements is constructed as a hybrid
space between the Internet social networks
and the occupied urban space: connecting
cyberspace and urban space in relentless
interaction, constituting technologically and
culturally, instant communicates of
transformative practice
… the networked space between the digital
space and the urban space, is a space of
autonomous communication.”
Manuel Castells, Networks of Hope and Outrage, 2012
Stuffocation & Decluttering
Conspicuous Consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015
Paid Subscribers to Subscription Services
(Millions)
3.2 million vinyl
records sold in the UK in 2016
Source: British Phonographic Industry - Official UK Recorded Music Market Report for 2016 Source: International Federation of the Phonographic Industry - Global Music Report 2016
eBooks
29%
3%
16%
7%
21%
4%
30%
6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
I will not change my behaviour
and refuse to buy electronic
books, newspapers, and
magazines.
In the future, I will only read
eBooks and electronic
newspapers/magazines.
What are your future plans regarding
eBooks and eReaders?
Germany US UK The Netherlands
Source: PWC – The Future of eBooks (2016)
3%
7%
12%
15%
18%
21%
23%
0%2%
3%
6%
9%
12%
14%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Market Share of eBooks – 2009 to
2015
Germany US UK Netherlands
The Future of Stuff
Online Content & Ownership
“Despite promotional language – in giant letters – with the words "buy" and "purchase", you are only buying a license to use the material yourself, and legally that's all.”
- The Guardian, ‘The Bruce Willis dilemma? In the digital era, we own nothing’, 2012
Losing Access to Data
38%
29%
20%
7%6%
40%
20%
22%
14%
5%
44%
27%
18%
2%
9%
40%
29%
19%
5%
7%
36%
33%
23%
4%5%
42%
29%
18%
7%
4%
27%
42%
18%
8%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Sad - there are memories
stored on those devices that I
would never get back
Calm - I have memorised the
things that matter and keep
hard copies of the pictures
Panic - it's the only place I
have my images and contact
information
I do not have any connected
devices to store my
information on
Other
Emotional Impact of Loss of Data and/or Access to Data
All UK Germany Spain Italy France Benelux Countries
Source: Kaspersky Lab: The Rise & Impact of Digital Amnesia (2015)
Composite storage and memories
Our relationship to ‘things’ is changing
“There’s two motors, there’s 10 printed circuit boards, there’s a scanner, there’s a microprocessor, there’s a
wireless chip, wireless antenna. There’s 775 aircraft-grade aluminum. There’s a gear box. There’s latches that support
16,000 pounds of force …”- Doug Evans, Juicero CEO
Source: Bloomberg- ‘Silicon Valley’s $400 Juicer may be feeling the squeeze’
What will ‘stuff’ mean in the future?
Trajectory
22 Upper Ground, London, SE1 9PD
+ 44 (0)20 8004 4869
trajectorypartnership.com
@TrajectoryTweet