The energy challenge adopting clean tech - how quickly will (can) the world change? 

Prof Ray Wills

Director and PartnerDuda&Wills

Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia

Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia

Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years

Shaun A. Marcott,* Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix 2013, Science 339, 1198

Adoption of technology

The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.

However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’

The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.

Roger’s diffusion curve

Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)

NY Times

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption - manufacturers

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates - vehicles

Zoepf 2011

Technology adoption rates

Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication

between consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security

Renewable energy growth

Data IEA

Global renewables 2013?

Data UNEP

Electricity generation - Europe

Electricity generation - UK

Electricity generation - Australia

Australian electricity demand 2012…

Data AEMO

Electricity market projections – WA

Sustainable energy and energy efficiency

Energy efficiency in all forms Distributed, renewable energy Known costs, resource life 1000++ years Stored energy in commodities, desal Energy storage key to:

improved energy delivery increased reliability reduced emissions

Technology energy use

www.epri.com

Global electricity growth

Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010

How clean are Europe’s cars?

Global renewables

Rapid change - Personal mobility

Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive

Private transport

Electric mass transit

Siemens Bordeaux light rail

Bombardier wireless light rail

Slim Ride -15 passengers Series 700 Shinkansen

train – 285 km/h

Electric mass transit

Commercialvehicles

Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybrids London Bus Haul Pak + Earthmover Honda prime mover BYD Electric forklift Oshkosh Military Vehicle

Flying and floating fuels

February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight

October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane

February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels

September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption

Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning

Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators

Green cities

Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE

Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne Stirling City Centre, Perth City of Fremantle Yanchep – 2 x 100 000

Local government critical

Solar on Australian homes

955,614 solar installs in Australia, total 2.31 GW of capacity; output estimated 2500 GWh of electricity in the 12 months to November 2012.

WA - 127 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 275 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) – over 6300 homes, 11.7 MW of capacity Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode

6055) next two largest - similar numbers ~ 4000 homes and ~ 8 MW.

Solar on Australian homes

WA - 104 000 rooftops with solar, a total of 218 MW of solar capacity Mandurah (postcode 6210) - over 5200 homes and 9.4 MW of capacity Canning Vale area (postcode 6155) and the Wanneroo area (postcode

6055) next two largest - similar numbers 3200 homes and 6.4 MW.

Solar on WA homes

City of Cockburn

Solar on your home

Solar in South Australia

When the winds of change blow,some people build walls

and others build windmills.

Chinese proverb