the eu pigmeat market current situation and futureprospects · the eu pigmeat market current...

The EU pigmeat market

Current situation and futureprospects

Judit KROMMER

European Commission, DG AGRIRakvere, 22 November 2019

Some key figures of EU pig production

▪ Pig population: 148 million pigs (2018)

▪ Production: 23.8 million tonnes carcass weight of

pigmeat (2018)

▪ Self sufficiency: 112%.

▪ Exports: 2.3 million tonnes carcass weight (11% of EU

pigmeat production), processed products and offals

excluded.

EU PIG SECTOR KEY FIGURES

EU PIG SECTOR KEY FIGURES

The importance of the EU pig sector

▪ Pigmeat represents 50% of total EU meat production.

▪ Pigmeat is the most exported out of all the meats produced

in the EU. Pigmeat exports represent 58% of EU total meat

exports (2017 data).

EU: an important player in the globalpork market

WORLD

P I G PRODUCERS

EUROPEAN UNION

P I G M A R K E T

EU MEMBER STATES

main producers

DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

E X P O R T S

PIG MAIN EXPORTERS

E U

E U

Uni

ted

States

Uni

ted

States

Ca

na

da

Ca

na

da

Bra

zil B

razil

China

+ H

.Kon

g

China

+ H

.Kon

g

Ch

ile C

hi

leMex

ico (u

p to

Aug

)

Mex

ico (u

p to

Aug

)

Rus

sia (u

p to

Aug

)

Rus

sia (u

p to

Aug

)

3 500

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0

Qty in

100

0To

nnes

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to September).

2018 (up to September).

Source : GTA

2019 (up to September).

Excl. Live animals

DG

AG

RI

G3

21 N

ovem

ber

2019

W O

R L

D

P I

GM

A R

K E

T

I M P

O R

TS

PIG

MA

INIM

PO

RT

ER

S

China + H.Kong

China+H.Kong

Japan

Mexico (up toAug)

SouthKorea

United States

Philippines (up to Aug)

Canada

Australia

Japan

Mexico (up to Aug)

SouthKorea

United States

Philippines (up to Aug)

Canada

Australia

0 500

10

00

15

00

20

00

25

00

Qty in 1000Tonnes

Ma

inIm

po

rte

rs

of

PIG

Pro

du

cts

(up

toS

ep

tem

be

r).

30

00

20

18

(up

toS

ep

tem

be

r).

So

urc

e :

GT

A

20

19

(up

toS

ep

tem

be

r).

Ex

cl. L

ive

an

ima

ls

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG PRICES

EU, BR, CAN, US

50

70

190

170

150

130

110

90

210

World weekly average Pig prices 2016 -2019 in Euro/ 100kg carcase

(EU, Brazil, Canada andUSA)

EU BR US CAN

EU = weighted average of MS prices for classes S (64.12%) and E(35.88%).


US = weekly USDA national weighted average carcassprices

(https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/amsdashboard/swine/Swine_Dashboard_Option_1.html)

BR = average of Valor Vista prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/indicador/suino.aspx)

CAN = Quebec Index 100 Hogs Weighted Average prices (agr.gc.ca)

141.72 84.80 117.26185.80

Current EU pig market situation

P I G P R I C E S EU E V O L U T I O NE

UP

rice

s

EUPrices Evolution since lastweek

185.8Average

(S-E)+0.4%

+0.5%Class S 186.5

184.5Class E +0.4%

57.9Piglet +2.8%€/head

€/100

kg

ca

rc

as

sw

eig

ht

Evolution since last

month

Evolution sincelast

year

+0.8%

+0.8%

+0.9%

+9.3%

+36.2%

+36.2%

+36.0%

+63.7%


46

P R I C E S

C A R C A S ES

E U E V O L U T I O N

AVERAGE CLASSES S & E

115

130

145

160

evolution of the EU pig carcass prices (average class E & S)

Average (14 -18) 2018 2019


Week 46 latest price ==> 185.80 EUR/100 kg/cw

190Evolution compared same period last year : + 36.2%

175

P R I C E S

C A R C A S ESEU E V O L U T I O N

O ct-2018 O ct-2019 O ct-2018 O ct-2019

EL

CY

BG

SI

RO

PT

HU

DE

AT

SK

HR

DK

FR

CZ 1

LV

ES

IE

PL

UK

LT

NL 0

EE 0

SE

FI

BE

EU

Oct-2018 Oct-2019

172.50 207.96

185.91 202.25

172.30 199.07

153.39 194.84

146.04 193.04

157.87 192.13

144.31 192.02

141.48 190.32

143.38 188.77

145.74 188.40

144.19 185.68

126.89 183.46

131.35 181.00

138.60 179.82

143.00 179.71

136.13 179.54

139.97 178.62

134.73 178.17

165.23 178.16

135.71 174.24

121.62 172.43

148.28 170.47

164.12 168.05

163.28 165.58

104.47 154.82

1 3 8 . 0 8 1 8 2 . 7 4

Classe E Classe S Classe R

IT 198.04 212.90

LV 115.55 17 9.36

SK 128.02 17 7.46

ES 141.16 168.64

DE 114.55 160.31

LT 125.89 158.83

FI 138.92 134.06

UK 125.83 121.55

DK 97.59

EU 165 .86 207.54

SI 162. 05

209.93

EL 172.50 207.96

AT 155 .22 200. 17

HU 14 8.41 194 .92

DE 144.39 193 .75

SK 14 7.84 193 .19

RO 14 9.26 193 .08

PT 156 .77 192 .90

DK 132.24 19 0.50

FR 139.35 18 9.19

HR 14 6.85 185.79

CZ 142.53 184.92

ES 140.19 181.34

UK 168.2 181.28

PL 137.29 181.08

IE 140.09 179.02

EE 154 .64 177.12

LT 139.43 176.75

LV 140.19 176.21

NL 122.76 173.28

SE 168.1 171.50

FI 168.6 170.52

BE 111.67 162.37

EU 14 0 .21 18 5 .06


P R I C E S

P I G L E T SEU E V O L U T I O N

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

65

evolution of the EU average piglet prices

(€/head)

Average (14 - 18) Piglet - 2018 Piglet - 2019


Week 46 latest price ==> 57.90EUR/head

Evolution compared same period last year : + 63.7%

P R O D U C T I O N

11

.6%

10

.0%

8.2

%

5.5

% 5.2

%

4.5

%

3.8

% 3.6

%

3.1

%

1.1

%

0.5

%

0.0

%

- 0.4

%

- 0.5

%

- 0.8

%

- 1.4

%

- 1.5

%

- 2.0

%

- 2.0

%

- 2.1

%

- 2.3

%

- 3.4

%

- 4.6

%

- 5.2

%

- 5.8

%

- 6.6

%

- 9.2

%

- 9.3

%

- 1.5

%

-20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

LT BG SK NL HR EE LV SI IT ES CY UK FR IE CZ PT FI LU SE AT HU DEBE MT PL DK ELRO EU

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 Heads)

2019/2018 (up toAugust)

Source:Eurostat

% E V O L U T I O N

IN HEADS


P R O D U C T I O N

11

.6%

9.9

%

8.6

%

7.2

% 6.7

% 6.7

%

6.1

%

4.5

%

1.6

% 1.6

%

0.7

% 0.3

% 0.1

%

0.0

%

- 0.4

%

- 0.7

%

- 0.9

%

- 0.9

%

- 1.1

%

- 1.7

%

- 2.2

%

- 2.8

%

- 3.0

%

- 3.1

%

- 4.4

%

- 4.4

%

- 5.4

%

- 6.2

%

- 0.9

%

LT SK BG NL LV HR SI EE ES UK CY HU FR FI MT IE PT CZ LU IT AT SE DE BE EL PL RODK EU

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000tonnes)

2019/2018 (up toAugust)

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Source:Eurostat

-20%

% E V O L U T I O N

IN TONNES


PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N

T O T A L P I G

Real Slaughter

2017 vs. 2016 2018 vs. 2017 2019 vs. 2018Expe rts 2019

vs.

Expe rts 2 018

Expe rts 2020

vs.

Expe rts 2 019

GIP 2 02 0

vs.

GIP 2 019

Q1 -1.0% +2.2% -1.1% +0.8% +0.5% -1.4%

Q2 -3.3% +2.6% -2.0% -1.6% +1.4% -2.1%

Q3 -0.8% +0.5% -0.5% +0.1%

Q4 +0.0% +1.2% -0.4% +0.2%

Full year -1.3% +1.6% -0.4% +0.5%

2017 vs.2016 2018 vs.2017 2019 vs.2018 Experts2019

vs.

Experts2018

Experts2020

vs.

Experts2019

GIP2020

vs.

GIP2019

Change in EUpigmeat slaughter(2019Q3-2020Q4forecastbasedonGIPandexpertsestimations) ('000 heads)

+5%

+3%

+1%

-1%

-3%

-5%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year


The importance of the EU pig exports

EU

trad

e o

f PIG

pro

du

cts

DG

AG

RI

G3

21 N

ovem

ber

2019

T R

A D

EE

UT

R A

DE

BA

LA

NC

E

46135

59720

71937

51641

63800

55918

56077

54499

72276

22612

21730

32368

43179

59838

51789

44193

37655

36967

34487

35245

33064

32788

36384

33566

27114

881 011

943 405

1 083 230

1 238 138

1 556961

1 545907

1 331808

1 526563

1 509302

1 780568

1 938455

2 089363

1 910908

2 569 087

2 386 245

2 627 630

3 246486

3 247956

3 242414

3 036539

3 370 209

4 159093

3 848961

3 869605

3 363897

4 5

00

00

0

4 2

50

00

0

4 0

00

00

0

3 7

50

00

0

3 5

00

00

0

3 2

50

00

0

3 0

00

00

0

2 7

50

00

0

2 5

00

00

0

2 2

50

00

0

2 0

00

00

0

1 7

50

00

0

1 5

00

00

0

1 2

50

00

0

1 0

00

00

0

75

00

00

50

00

00

25

00

00

0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Jan-Sep19

Tonnes carcaseweight

EU

Tra

de o

f PIG

pro

du

cts

IMP

OR

TS

EX

PO

RT

S

EU imports of selected PIGproductsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcassweight)

T R A D E EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

IMPORT

2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep 19 Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 18

Switzerland 20 225 61% 22 257 68% 22 922 63% 19 430 58% 13184 49% -13%

Serbia 1 819 6% 614 2% 2 694 7% 3 618 11% 3 605 13% 45%

Norway 2 315 7% 1 989 6% 2 303 6% 2 702 8% 3 440 13% 62%

Chile 2 896 9% 2 958 9% 2 434 7% 2 664 8% 2 501 9% 15%

USA 1 769 5% 1 711 5% 1 707 5% 1 566 5% 1 400 5% 10%

China 378 1% 250 1% 1 315 4% 841 3% 349 1% -46%

Other 3 663 11% 3 010 9% 3 010 8% 2 745 8% 2 635 10%

Extra-EU 33 064 32 788 36 384 33 566 27114

% change - 1% + 11% - 8% + 4.7%


EUimports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcassweight)

1689915129

13184

2183

2125

2478

2501

3440

3556

18411864

33414035

26610 2590427114

0

5000

10000

3605 15000

20000

25000

30000

Jan-Sep17 Jan-Sep18 Jan-Sep19

50.948.1 47.6

15.513.3 12.9

6 7 6.7

8 8 7.8

7.0 10.1

14.8 11.49.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


T R A D E EU I M P O R T S



Germany

892

23%

Denmark

586

15%

Netherlands

480

12%

Poland

253

6%

France

232

6%

Others

628

16%

EU MAIN EXPORTERS

(1 000 TONNES - 2018 DATA)

Germany SpainSpain 1.380 1.719870 19% 24%22%

Denmark

1.254

17%

Netherlands

825

11%

Poland

359

5%

France

401

6%

Others

1.336

18%

EU MAIN EXPORTERS

(MILLIONS EUROS - 2018 DATA)

T R A D E EU MAIN


EXPORTERS

China

1358

34%

Japan

455

12%

SouthKorea

345

9%

Philippines

289

7%HongKong

232

6%

USA

170

4%

Others

1 089

28%

EU PIGMEAT EXPORTDESTIINATIONS

(1 000 TONNES - 2018DATA)

China

1830

25%Japan

1368

19%

SouthKorea

806

11%

Philippines

301

Hong Kong4%

382

5%USA

565

8%

Others

2 022

28%

EU PIGMEAT EXPORT DESTIINATIONS

(MILLIONS EUROS - 2018 DATA)

T R A D E EU PIGMEAT EXPORTDESTINATIONS


EU exports of selected PIGproducts:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcassweight)

2015

tonnes %

2016

tonnes %

2017

tonnes %

2018

tonnes %

Jan-Sep 19 Comparedto

Jan-Sep 18tonnes %

China 1 141 484 33.9% 1 866 110 44.9% 1 406 733 36.5% 1 353 489 35.0% 1 547 752 46.0% + 55%

Japan 364745 10.8% 405311 9.7% 425761 11.1% 433429 11.2% 365430 10.9% +7%

South Korea 241569 7.2% 260593 6.3% 276136 7.2% 335126 8.7% 208440 6.2% -15%

Philippines 191891 5.7% 216514 5.2% 251492 6.5% 284044 7.3% 198043 5.9% -9%

Hong Kong 292651 8.7% 363251 8.7% 383948 10.0% 231825 6.0% 150194 4.5% -16%

USA 105123 3.1% 116806 2.8% 155461 4.0% 165460 4.3% 105954 3.1% -19%

Australia 102645 3.0% 101174 2.4% 95351 2.5% 96870 2.5% 86710 2.6% + 24%

Vietnam 38290 1.1% 53483 1.3% 41637 1.1% 86357 2.2% 75317 2.2% + 28%

Ukraine 96619 2.9% 75547 1.8% 86944 2.3% 107065 2.8% 69798 2.1% -12%

Taiwan 53701 1.6% 47825 1.1% 64443 1.7% 55537 1.4% 44542 1.3% +3%

Serbia 47488 1.4% 41151 1.0% 54924 1.4% 65583 1.7% 37348 1.1% -28%

Ivory Coast 50240 1.5% 36825 0.9% 41475 1.1% 52288 1.4% 36116 1.1% +6%

Other 643762 19.1% 574504 13.8% 564656 14.7% 602533 15.6% 438252 13.0%

Extra-EU 3 370 209 4 159 093 3 848 961 3 869 605 3 363 897

% change + 23% - 7% + 1% + 16.2%

T R A D E E U E X P O R T S



EU exports of selected PIGproductsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

3 363897

2872904 2 894211894037

828548 909342 150194198043

274535 178012 208440365430191736 217137

205903 246414

1 547752

334719 342046

1 037463 1 001261

0

500000

1 000000

1 500000

2 000000

2 500000

3 000000

3 500000


Tons(cw).

4 000000

1539 1314

2643

10761036

1174224575

235534

493230552

289

21919051882

1915

57965321

6721

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


inM

illi

on

sE

UR

T R A D E EU E X P O R T S



450 000

400 000

350 000

300 000

250 000

200 000

150 000

100 000

50 000

0|

Jan 172017 |

Jan 182018 |

Jan 192019

in Tonnes

(carcase weight)EU Exports of selected PIG

T R A D E EU E X P O R T S



The current challenges for the EU pigexports

ASF REGIONALISATION

Thank you for your attention!

Follow market updates via the Meat Market Observatory

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/meat/index_en.htm >Pigmeat
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/meat/index_en.htm

the eu pigmeat market current situation and futureprospects · the eu pigmeat market current...

Documents