the euro · —exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 us gdp trend analysis 2010 2015 1990...

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The Euro Joseph E. Stiglitz

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Page 1: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

The Euro Joseph E. Stiglitz

Page 2: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Real GDP is just recovering to earlier levels

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Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2017

Page 3: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

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Many countries have lower GDP than before crisis

Page 4: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

For some countries downturn was worse than Great Depression

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Page 5: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Growth in output per member of working-age population is lower than before the crisis for Europe

Source: Economic Report of the President 2016

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Page 6: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

High unemployment

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Unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, January 2000 – February 2017

Source: Eurostat

Page 7: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

And even higher youth unemployment

Source: Eurostat

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Youth unemployment rates, EU-28 and EA-19, seasonally adjusted, January 2000 – February 2017

Page 8: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Current account imbalances

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Page 9: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Euro area has performed much more poorly than the US—even though the crisis originated in US

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Page 10: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Current accounts improvements

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Page 11: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Troika’s remarkably poor models

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Page 12: The Euro · —Exponential trend based on 1980-98 15 1980 1985 US GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 1980 Euro Area GDP Trend Analysis 2010 2015 1985 1995 2000 2005

Poorly performing countries today had performed well before 2007: no change in structure

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