the european elections - yougovcdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/cm3jia833s... · it has...

The Public Opinion Context

The European Elections

Head of Political & Social Research EMEAJoe Twyman Jane Carn

Director Qualitative Research

Europe, the European Elections and the rise of Ukip

Fruitcakes, Loonies, Closest Racists & Winners?

Sticks & Stones

‘Ukip is sort of a bunch of ... fruit cakes andloonies and closet racists mostly’

David Cameron, 4th April 2006

Three key themes approaching the European Elections

The rise of Ukip Britain’s membership of the European

Union Wider attitudes towards the EU

5

The rise of Ukip

The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)

Sample: c1,000 British adults per month

Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring survey

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April 2004December 2013

The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 - 2013)

Sample: c1,500 British adults per day

Source: YouGov Daily Polling for News UK

R² = 0.71

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3rd Jan 2012 9th May 2014

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The Rise of Ukip: The Westminster Context (2004 – 2013)Source: House of Commons Library

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April 2004 May 2014

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The Rise of Ukip: the European Election Context

European ElectionResult

(May 2009)Seats

Conservative 28% 27UKIP 17% 13Labour 16% 13Liberal Democrat 14% 11Green 8% 2BNP 6% 2SNP / Plaid 3% 3

10

The Rise of Ukip: the European Election Context

Sample: 1,933 British adults

Source: YouGov fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014

European ElectionResult

(May 2009)

European ElectionVoting Intention

(May 2014)

Conservative 28% 23%UKIP 17% 31%Labour 16% 25%Liberal Democrat 14% 9%Green 8% 8%BNP 6% 1%SNP / Plaid 3% 3%

11

The Ukip vote: Winning here?


Source: YouGov Daily Polling Fieldwork: 31 March – 30 April 2014

13

15

15

20

24

24

26

29

30

30

31

32

33

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36

42

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

ScotlandUnder 40

Voted Lab in 2010Voted Lib Dem in 2010

ABC 1LondonWomen

AllMidlands / Wales

NorthMen

40-59South excl. London

C2DEAged 60+

Voted Con in 2010

Percentage Voting Ukip in 2014 European Elections

12

Most important issues facing the country


Source: YouGov for New UK Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014

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2

3

7

10

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12

14

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17

18

28

34

51

57

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

None of theseDon’t know

TransportFamily life & childcare

TaxThe environment

CrimePensions

EducationEurope

HousingWelfare benefits

HealthImmigration & Asylum

The economy

Percentage of All Voters

13

Most important issues facing the country


Source: YouGov for New UK Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014

1

0

2

3

6

4

10

12

5

49

13

28

25

85

45

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

None of theseDon’t know

TransportFamily life & childcare

TaxThe environment

CrimePensions

EducationEurope

HousingWelfare benefits

HealthImmigration & Asylum

The economy

Percentage of Ukip Voters

14

Support for Europe


Source: YouGov for BES Continuous Monitoring Survey

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10

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60

70

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Approve of Brit Membership of EU

April 2004 December 2013

15

Support for Europe vs Support for Ukip



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60

70

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UKIP Support

Approve of Brit Membership ofEU


16

The importance of Europe as an issue



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70

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UKIP Support

Approve of Brit Membership ofEU


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The Three D’s

Dissatisfied Distrusting Disapproving

18

‘Most British politicians are personally corrput’


Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014

82

94

16

29

19

31

16

47

29

31

31

28

2523

38

22

33

847 4

8

17 3 411

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60

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80

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100

GB Adults Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

Perc

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Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don't know

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In general, how much do you trust leading politicians from the main parties in Britain to tell the truth?



2 4 2 2 0

20

36

18

34

4

36

40

39

35

28

36

18

3720

67

6 2 49

1

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Perc

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Trust a great deal Trust to some extent Do not trust much Do not trust at all Don’t know

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On balance, do you think Britain is better or worse place in which to grow up than it was thirty or forty years ago?



1826

19

38

6

19

23

20

19

11

55

4555

36

82

8 5 6 61

0

10

20

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60

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80

90

100


Perc

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It is better today than 30-40 years ago Neither better nor worse It is worse today Don’t know

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From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is?


Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014

88

99

85 84

72

6

1

312

28

60

123

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100


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Safe (All) Unsafe (All) Don’t know

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From what you have heard, how safe do you think the MMR vaccination is?


Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 7-8 April 2014

1 0 0 0

13

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Dangerous

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Net rise in total support for the single largest nationalist and Eurosceptic parties in Europe since last European elections

Sample: >1,000 adults per country

Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014

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6

18

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15

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Britain Germany France Denmark Sweden Finland

Net

Per

cent

age

Incr

ease

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Membership of the European Union

25

Would you support or oppose holding a referendum on Britain’s relationship with Europe within the next few years?

Sample: 948 British adults

Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 20-21 May 2013

58

77

4252

93

24

12

41

34

6

1712

17 14

1

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Support Oppose Don't know

Would you support or oppose holding a referendum on Britain’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest within the next few years?

Sample: 966 British adults

Source: YouGov Fieldwork: 20-21 May 2013

32 34 36

22

39

4446 45

56

33

24 19 18 2227

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Support Oppose Don't know

27

If there was a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote? (excluding WNV / DK)



5142

65

79

4

4958

35

21

96

0

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100


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I would vote to remain a member of the European Union I would vote to leave the European Union

28

If there was a referendum on[COUNTRY]’s membership of the European Union, how would you vote? (Excluding WNV/DK)


Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014

51 51

7165

5662

49 49

2935

4438

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I would vote to remain a member of the European Union I would vote to leave the European Union

29

Attitudes to Europe

30

Best things about the European Union


Souce: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014

It has helped free trade between European countries 38%

It has given people the freedom to move to and live in other European countries 27%

It has ensured peace and stability in Europe 21%

It has allowed co-operation on issues like the environment and terrorism 19%

It has led to more cultural understanding and friendship between European countries 13%

Has given Europe a stronger voice in the world 19%

It has helped develop democracy in the countries of Eastern Europe 10%

It has protected human rights and freedoms in Europe 15%

It has made Europe richer and more prosperous 6%

Other 1%

None of these - there is nothing good about the European Union 17%

Don't know 12%

Best things about the European Union


Souce: YouGov Fieldwork: 28 April – 6 May 2014

It has interfered too much in how member countries run their affairs 45%

It has allowed too many immigrants from Eastern Europe to come to countries like Britain 43%

It costs too much money 38%

It has lead to too much bureaucracy and regulation for businesses 27%

The single currency has made the economic crisis worse 23%

It has allowed fraud and corruption 20%

It has not been democratic enough or listened to European people's views 13%

It has been too protectionist, putting up trade barriers against developing countries 5%

It has stopped Britain building relationships with emerging countries 4%

Other 1%

None of these - there is nothing bad about the European Union 2%

Don't know 12%

‘[COUNTRY] will be a member of the European Union 20 years from now’


Source: YouGov Eurotrack Fieldwork: 20-27 February 2014

614 13 14 14 11

32

45

32

43 3935

18

26

22

1513

18

16

6

9

10

9 166

3

7

6

7

922

618 12

1713

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‘I understand why the European Union exists’



1217 13 14

20 18

5148

41

5349 52

19 19

19

16 16 14

9 9

12

7 6 103 3

96 5 36 3 6 4 3 4

0

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‘[COUNTRY] gets a good deal from being a member of the European Union’



411

5 5 6 10

22

31

26 2936

36

23

28

2529

25 19

26

20

2219

17 18

15

7

15 1011 10

114

7 8 5 5

0

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‘All things considered, the European Union is a good thing’



7 10 7 8 8 9

31

39

3139 35 35

22

26

23

2322 23

21

15

19

1519 19

9

7

1510 12 10

93 5 5 3 4

0

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36

‘Life in [COUNTRY] would be better if it was NOT a member of the European Union



10 9 12 10 10 10

2618

2419 22 18

1725

20

1721

20

22 27 20

2722 29

1315

16 18 16 15

126 9 9 8 8

0

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‘The way the European Union works needs significant reform’



31 28 29 26 23 21

38 43 4441 45

41

1620 14

21 1925

4

55 4 4 61

13 1 1 110

4 6 8 7 6

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Which of these options would you prefer?



A more integrated European Union, with more decisions being taken by the EU 3%

Keeping broadly the current balance of powers between the EU and individual member states 18%

A less integrated European Union, with a number of powers being returned to member states 42%

Britain leaving the European Union altogether 24%

Don’t know 13%

39




24 2717

9

69

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Britain leaving the European Union altogether

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24 25

12 1319 15

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[COUNTRY] leaving the European Union altogether

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2014 European Elections in Context

The rise of Ukip is on a different scale to previous occasions and is not just about Europe

Part of a wider scepticism across many parts of Europe

EU failing to win big narrative battles with reform the preferred option

European Elections have major implications for 2015 General Election

42

Twitter: @JoeTwyman

Email: [email protected]

43

European Election – the qualitative study

We ran online focus groups across four European countries

YouGov panel members 8-10 participants in each country

Mix of ages, gender and political affiliation Mix of those planning/not planning to vote in the EU elections

Moderated locally by our qualitative teams in UK, France, Sweden and Germany

45

How European do you think you are?

“I see myself as being from Derbyshire, the East Midlands, then British.”

"I can’t identify myself as European. Europe, as it is

now is not united, it's every man for himself."

“I identify myself strongly as a European, but not only as that. I probably have more affinity to northern

Europe when it comes to values.”

LeastMost

“I identify myself as a person who lives in Germany and I am happy about the

strong cooperation in Europe on the political

level”

46

How do the countries perceive their role in the EU?

“The passenger”

“The money lender”

“End of the affair ”

“The eco warrior”

47

The rise of Euro scepticism in Britain and France

• UKIP is shaping the agenda – and UKIP supporters are placing much more emphasis on Europe within the agenda

• Immigration has become a topical issue – dividing opinion

• BUT: many feel that Britain has lost its way in Europe – want to be part of it, but don’t know how

• We don’t know what our role is or what input we really have in Europe – lack of clarity and certainty

• We are more open to reform than leaving

• In France problems in the French economy are overshadowing perceptions of the EU

• Feeling that France’s influence is fast diminishing and economic issues compounding this

• Although they believe that without Europe, the French economy would be even worse, they want a number of powers to be returned to

the states and for Europe to be less integrated

• Euro crisis has created negativity “every man for himself”

48

In Germany and Sweden there is a stronger sense of place in the EU

• While those in Germany recognise that Germany is setting the EU agenda, this does always lead on to positive feelings about EU membership.

• Many feel that whilst Germany is strong and influential in Europe and in the world generally “we are the second most influential country after the US”

• Many criticized the “money lender” role that they feel Germany has been forced to adopt in the Euro crisis

• However, they tend to still be happy with things the way they are when it comes to the level of integration in Europe.

• In Sweden many value the co-operation that the EU allows and recognizes it gives Sweden a more prominent voice.

• They accept that Sweden may not set the agenda but it does allow them the platform to make their voice heard on issues such as animal rights, welfare and the environment

49

Love or Loathe? High media interest and everyone has an opinion on the EU elections in the UK

50

• Voters are now seeing the elections as an in/out vote on Europe rather than a vote to elect a an MEP to the European Parliament

Everyone is talking about Europe…

“The in/out syndrome makes it different this

year.”

The prominence of UKIP The referendum debate The 2015 general election

• UKIP were felt to be more prominent than ever before and there was high levels of awareness of the UKIP campaign and anti-EU anti-immigration stance.

“I think UKIP have woken people up and all

sides of the debate.”

• The 2015 general election is also shaping the EU election this year –some are voting for the party they expect to vote for next year to show support.

51

BUT in the rest of Europe… what elections?

52

Mixed Interest in France

"I am very interested in these elections, but

there is too little explanation"

Voters feel it is important to vote at the EU elections the lack of media coverage and information means their interest is mixed

Limited media coverage Lack of information and transparency

• Voters do not feel that the media is covering in enough detail and find the debates on TV/radio sterile.

"The media speak little about it but I’m

interested in this election as it represents

an important choice"

• They also feel that there is a lack of information from the parties and question the role of French MEP’s at the EU.

But despite this…

French participants are planning to vote and most had decided who they are going vote for.

53

Business as usual in Sweden

“I think the smaller parties have a bigger chance to get

confidence of the voters as they seem to have stronger people.”

While those in Sweden feel it is their duty to vote, there is limited interest in the EU elections this year – it is business as usual in Sweden.

2014 general election Single issue parties

• The EU elections have been overshadowed by the general election in Sweden – and the campaign messages have not combined.

"Will vote the same as in the general elections. I am interested, but not enough too go looking

for information."

• Many felt that the smaller parties would will have a bigger impact this year than previously, but there are an array of small single issue parties rather than dominated by one party.

54

No party or issue is dominating the agenda

“Merkel will benefit the most although she is not eligible. The

other political figures are not that present”

There is no special topic and no special political party dominating the campaign. Angela Merkel will benefit most.

Low interest Angela Merkel

• Most intended to vote – but had not yet decided who to vote for.

• They were not aware of any key issues this year apart from the role of Martin Schulz as candidate of the European Commission as so-called “rescuer” of the EU.

• With no party or issues dominating the debate, Angela Merkel was seen as the figure who would benefit most from the Elections because she can present herself as the face of Germany in the world/EU.

“I saw the discussion if Martin Schulz is able to recover the EU”

55

What’s the verdict?

"Participants show a real interest in the European elections, although they feel they are not sufficiently informed about the elections and criticize the media about this.

The key issues of European elections in France are primarily employment and economic situation.

The majority of them already know who they will vote for in the European elections. The balance of power in the focus group was in line with the results of the EuroTrack : the Front National leader, followed by the UMP. According to respondents, the Parti socialistewill suffer another defeat, after Municipal elections in March."

56

What’s the verdict?

“In Sweden it is a big election year this year with the upcoming national election in September. This explains why people are not as interested in the EU election to some extent, as the general election is demanding media attention - the current government is up for a fight after 8 years in power.

Voters are confused about which is which debate but many believe it will be the single-question parties who will get more votes than normal in the European elections. They feel more free to choose parties they normally don't vote for as the EU election is not as important!”

57

What’s the verdict

“Those we spoke to weren’t very interested in the European Elections. Most of them don’t know who to vote for and they are still in the process of collecting information about the key issues/debate. Most don’t know the top candidates of the parties. Only Martin Schulz from the Socialdemocratic Party (SPD) is well known because he wants to become president of the European Commission.

This means that many feel they will rely on previous voting habits or try and collect more information in the next weeks up to the Elections.”

58

What’s the verdict

“The media interest in the EU elections has certainly had an impact, with most of our focus group respondents certain they will turn out to vote on May 22nd this year – it’s serious business

However, very few of them are actually focusing on the issues of Europe itself – they are seeing this election as a chance to show how they feel about the political situation in the UK and demonstrate their feelings about the main political parties. Whilst there has been a clear rise in anti-Euro UKIP, many of our respondents remain confused or undecided about the future of Britain in the EU and are reluctant to see us leave it behind”

59

Overall

• Divergent opinions• Uncertainty about the future • EU plays a valuable role – but where is it going? How is it changing

and adapting • How does the EU fit into the global picture

60

Email: [email protected]

61

Questions

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