the european organisation for the safety of air navigation ian middleton, deputy director...
TRANSCRIPT
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
Ian Middleton, Deputy Director
EUROCONTROL - Directorate Single Sky Amsterdam, 27 April 2012
SINGLE EUROPEAN SKY versus NEXTGEN (US) FROM A REGULATORY PERSPECTIVE
Agenda
• The challenges driving R&D
• Airports and the Network
• Meeting the challenges - R&D within a Regulatory Framework
– NEXTGEN versus SESAR
• Conclusion
General Presentation 3
EUROCONTROL but not EU
EUROCONTROL & EU
EUROCONTROL39 Member States39 Member States
UAC MaastrichtUAC Maastricht
Central Flow Management UnitCentral Flow Management Unit
Central Route Charges OfficeCentral Route Charges Office
Institute of Air Navigation Services Institute of Air Navigation Services
Experimental Centre Experimental Centre
Headquarters – SES SupportHeadquarters – SES Support
Network ManagerNetwork Manager
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Flig
hts
in E
uro
pe
(M
illio
n)
An
nu
al G
row
th
Long-TermAverage Growth
Long-TermTrend
Traffic in Europe
AnnualGrowth Forecast
Trafic
ActualTraffic
IFR traffic in Europe1960-2010 historical figures
2011-2030 forecast
USA Traffic Growth
• US air traffic will increase by the equivalent of two major hub airports each year through 2020.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
13019
99
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Inde
x (1
999=
100)
US Europe
Source: EUROCONTROL PRC/ FAA
How Robust is the Growth?
Traffic
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Time
Gulf War1991
KosovoCrisis1999
9/112001
SARS2002
IRAQ War2003
Oil Price Rises2005+Oil Crisis
1980
Economic Boom
1987-88
IT Boom1997-98
2009
Global Recession2008
2012
.
.
1.5 million flights will go un-accommodated if extra capacity is not provided
2000
8.0 Million Flights8.0 Million Flights 16.0 Million Flights16.0 Million Flights
Traffic tripled over last 25 years Traffic will double over next 20 years
Capacity.
2033
Delays
Airlines
Airports
En-RouteMiscSecurity
Weather
Primary Delay Distribution for 2011
27.7 million minutes of delays (2010) costing €2.0 Bn.27.7 million minutes of delays (2010) costing €2.0 Bn.
20% of flights will be delayed by 2020 if system is not modernised 20% of flights will be delayed by 2020 if system is not modernised
Environment
• Top of political agenda
• Aviation must continue to make significant effort to reduce its impact on environment
Airports and the Network
• Runway and Airport capacity limitations can block growth
• Need to make more efficient use of existing capacity
– Efficient surface management
– Connectivity with ATM Network
• Airports are a key component of ATM Network
• Must integrate airports into the Network
Airport constraints
Flights in Europe - 2030• In most-likely scenario (C), 2 million flights not accommodated
Airports are a small but persistent source of primary delay
Breakdown average delay per flight 2007-2011
13,412,6
10,7
14,7
10,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ave
rage
dep
artu
re d
elay
per
flig
ht in
min
utes
Airport Primary Other Primary En-Route Primary Reactionary
Source: www.eurocontrol.int/coda
The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation
Meeting the ChallengesR&D within a Framework
Single European Sky (SES) Framework• To address defragmentation
• Legislation adopted by EU Council and Parliament
– 20 April 2004, amended November 2009.
• 4 SES Regulations
Fra
me
wo
rk
Se
rvice Pro
vision
Airsp
ace
Intero
pera
bility
Performance-drivenPerformance-driven
Single European Sky ATM Research(SESAR)
SESAR
• Technical/operational change, supported by Single European Sky legislation
• Public Private Partnership
• Direct involvement of aviation industry in all phases
• Address European needs and Global interoperability
SESAR
• Technical/operational change, supported by Single European Sky legislation
• Public Private Partnership
• Direct involvement of aviation industry in all phases
• Address European needs and Global interoperability
Needs:
• Turn off fragmented approach
• Accelerate evolution in response to challenges
• Synchronise plans and actions
– from research to operations
Needs:
• Turn off fragmented approach
• Accelerate evolution in response to challenges
• Synchronise plans and actions
– from research to operations
A new ATM System is required
19
• Public-private partnership to manage the SESAR Development Phase
– Execute the European ATM Master Plan
– One single ATM R&D programme in Europe
• Innovation from private sector
• Public financial stability & enforcement power
• 2 founding members:
• 15 industry members:
• SJU Budget: ~2.1 B€, till 31 Dec 2016
SESAR Joint Undertaking
NEXTGEN ARRANGEMENTS
• Strong regulatory basis – FAA is Regulator and manages NextGen programme
• Funding – Lacks a permanent spending bill
– FAA Reauthorisation and Reform Act of 2011 passed in the U.S. House of Representatives on April 1, 2011 included a critical amendment authorising a public-private partnership (PPP)
• FAA governance supported by the NextGen Advisory Committee (NAC) – FAA can solicit a consensus-based set of recommendations
– Forum to obtain a commitment of resources and/or synchronised planning between government and industry
– Identify opportunities for industry participation in NextGen implementation.
SESAR/NEXTGEN COOPERATION
• European and US authorities agreement on the cooperation of SESAR and NextGen.– Agreement is technical annex to European Commission
and US Federal Aviation Administration memorandum of co-operation for civil aviation research and development.
– Contributes to essential standardisation of ATM systems, to be pursued through the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
– Interoperability essential for airspace users operating in US and EU airspaces.
Regulatory Impact of SESAR and NextGen on Airports
• Through SESAR and Next Gen, EC and FAA will define areas in which Airports need to focus their investments
• The SESAR and NextGen Standardisation and Regulatory Roadmaps will provide the basis for a more global approach
• EC and FAA will work with ICAO in attempt to establish a global Regulatory Roadmap – On ANC12 Agenda– Airports will be consulted through normal EASA/EC
Rulemaking processes
• Total estimated cost for SESAR deployment in Europe is 30 Billion Euro– Covers aircraft, ATM Airport and military equipage costs
SESAR versus NEXTGEN (1)
• Both benefit from established regulatory frameworks
• Europe more fragmented but USA and FAA face same issues of buy-in and governance complications
• Programmes share similar aims
• SESAR
– stable funding
– EUROCONTROL’s expertise at its core
• NEXTGEN
– unstable funding to date
– PPP?
SESAR versus NEXTGEN (2)
• SESAR
– stable funding
– time limited – what happens post-2016?
– EUROCONTROL’s expertise at its core
• NEXTGEN
– unstable funding to date
– greater longevity
Conclusions
• Capacity requires ATM network-wide actions
• Airports can impede traffic growth
• SESAR and NEXTGEN will facilitate the definition of global and regional regulatory requirements for airports
– regulatory roadmaps
• Airports to be integrated in the overall network
• Europe and FAA both pro-active in achieving a common set of equipment and procedures