the external environment for developing...

June 19, 2008

This monthly brief was prepared by a team of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG), led by Hans Timmer, and comprising Mick Riordan (G-3 countries, foreign exchange); John Baffes (trade); Betty Dow and Shane Streifel (primary commodities), Eung Ju Kim (finance), Cristina Savsecu (production) and Gauresh Rajadhyaksha (high-frequency data and Annex). The note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank

Group.

The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2008

Overview

Inflation moves to the front burner. Recent increases in inflation across the industrial countries have helped shift the focus of monetary policy from supporting growth and shoring up fragile financial systems in the United States and Europe to stemming incipient price pressures. The Federal Reserve has called a “halt” to policy rate cuts for the near term; the ECB has hinted at a 25 basis point increase for July. Across developing countries, central banks are raising rates as well to stem inflation pressures. Recent developments in oil and food markets do not auger well for letup in price pressures soon. Oil reached new highs of $140/bbl, while floods in the U.S. Midwest will affect maize prices adversely.

Emerging market spreads narrow; equities perform poorly in 2008. Bond markets have been fairly conducive for new issuance from EM borrowers, and EMBIG spreads have narrowed from recent peaks in March. But equity markets have underperformed, registering a negative 9.2% return over 2008 to date; bank lending has declined since the start of the year.

Slack in OECD demand; waning export performance. Following better-than expected GDP results for the first quarter, evidence is mounting that consumer and business outlays in Europe and Japan are under pressure from rising inflation and low sentiment levels. Tax rebate checks in the United States have boosted household spending in May, but these effects are likely to be temporary. Of concern, export orders-, shipments and factory production are on a downtrend across the OECD, likely to dampen GDP gains moving forward.

New projections mark down global growth in 2008. Global Development Finance-2008 launched on June 10, features a substantial lowering of activity among OECD countries for 2008 and 2009—but a general resilience among developing economies. Strong import demand in emerging markets supports OECD exports, and cushions global output to move down by a percentage point to 2.7% in 2008. Downside risks include still weaker OECD growth, increased tensions in financial markets and a further run-up in food prices and inflation more broadly.

High-income CPI in 3% range– fastest since early 1990s

Median (aggregate), HICP (EA) Headline CPI (US) ch% year on year

1

2

3

4

5

1992M1 1995M1 1998M1 2001M1 2004M1 2007M1

Euro Area

United States

Source: Thomson/Datastream DECPG calculations

EM spreads down 75 basis points since recent peaks at mid-March

100

125

150

175

200

225

250275

300

325

350

375

Jan-07 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08

Source: JPMorgan-Chase.

Stripped spreads, basis points

EAP

MSCILAC

ECA

June 19, 2008 External Environment for Developing Countries page 2

Projections found in the indicators table are sourced from the just-released Global Development Finance-2008. The DECPG website Global Economic Monitor (GEM) continues to be enhanced—broadening the coverage of daily data and improving data access. We hope you find GEM useful for your daily work.

Global Indicators

Global Indicators

(Percentage change per annum, unless otherwise specified)

2005 2006 2007e 2008f

GDP volume: World 3.4 4.0 3.7 3.6 2.7 3.3 Memo item: World GDP at PPP weights 4.8 5.4 5.4 5.2 4.3 4.9 High-income countries 2.6 3.0 2.6 1.6 2.2 Developing countries 6.8 7.6 7.8 7.4 6.5 7.1 Industrial production: World (incl China) 4.6 5.5 5.5 ... High-income countries 2.1 3.0 2.5 ... Developing countries (incl China) 9.5 10.3 11.3 ...

Export volume (GNFS): World (incl China) 7.9 9.7 7.5 9.2 4.5 7.6 High-income countries 6.3 8.3 6.0 8.2 3.0 6.3 Developing countries (incl China) 12.7 13.4 11.3 12.0 8.1 11.0 Trade Prices ($): Manufacturing (MUV) 0.0 1.6 3.9 6.8 Oil ($/bbl) 53.4 64.3 71.2 108.1 Non-oil commodities 12.0 29.0 17.0 24.1

Nominal interest rates: $LIBOR (percent p.a.) 3.73 5.23 5.30 3.00 LIBOR (percent p.a.) 2.24 3.23 4.30 3.80 Financial flows FDI ($billion) 289 368 460 ... Gross Capital flowsa ($billion) 361 494 683 447 464 Equity placement ($bn) 59 111 194 98 99 Bond financing ($bn) 126 137 146 93 79 Lending ($bn) 175 246 343 256 286

Source: DECPG, June 2008.

Note(s): a. Gross inflows 2008 estimated on data to date. Figures in bold represent changes this month.


United States Stimulus arrives. Retail outlays in May increased sharply as tax rebates arrived and were expended at department stores, electronics outlets and auto dealerships after an extended hiatus in car sales. Total sales jumped 1% in the month on the heels of an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in April (earlier reported as a drop). Retail momentum lofted from “zero” growth in April to a heftier 3.9% pace (saar); and sales excluding autos gained a strong 7.9% on this measure. This is good news for an economy where domestic demand has slowed over the past 6 months. Today’s results also underscore that the stimulus plan and sequential cuts in policy interest rates appear to be working, at least in their intended effect of boosting consumer spending. More checks in the mail in June! Labor market slumps. Whether stimulus measures will be sufficient to jolt the economy onto a stronger growth path is unclear, as labor market conditions continue to deteriorate. Following 28,000 job losses in April, the economy shed another 49,000 during May, a fifth consecutive month of decline. And an influx of new entrants to the labor force (school-leavers and others) bumped the unemployment rate up by 0.5 points to 4.5%. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by a full 25,000 persons in the week of June 7 to a recent high of 384,000. Mounting job losses and low consumer sentiment (tied to the ramp-up in inflation) appear likely to dampen spending after the stimulus checks run out. Fed on hold. As inflation ratchets higher—import prices up 18%-, producer prices 7% and consumer prices 4% (y/y) in May on the back of escalating fuels and food costs, the Fed appears to have decided that rate cuts will be placed on hold. Central Bank attention is shifting to inflation pressures and expectations, as well as the implications of the weak dollar for prices. Will this come at the expense of additional support for economic activity and further shoring up of financial markets? Stay tuned.

U.S. households spend rebates in May Retail sales, ch% saar and 3mma y/y

-2

0

2

4

6

8

May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

Retail sales, saar

Retail sales, year-on-year

Slackening labor markets could dim consumer outlays in coming monthschange in employment 3mma [L], unemployment claims 4wma [R]

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08280

300

320

340

360

380

Source: U.S. Department of Labor.

unemployment claims [right]

employment [left]

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

4-Jun-07

4-Jul-07

3-Aug-07

2-Sep-07

2-Oct-07

1-Nov-07

1-Dec-07

31-Dec-07

30-Jan-08

29-Feb-08

30-Mar-08

29-Apr-08

29-May-08

Fed funds target rate

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

Fed likely to halt rate reductionsat 2% as CPI pressures mount


Japan

Japan GDP revised higher. A stronger tone to business investment was the key factor pushing Japan’s GDP up to a revised 4% growth during the first quarter of the year (saar) from initial estimates of 3.3%. Net exports, which had earlier provided 2.4 points of growth eased to 2.3 points. First estimates of the falloff in government outlays were revised up from -3.2% to -1.7%, and the contribution of stock change was downgraded from 0 to -0.5 points. Business fixed investment picked up from a 1% pace to 3.9% in 2nd estimates, accounting for 0.6 points of the improvement in GDP growth. Despite the markup to GDP, indicators covering April through June show signs of an economy loosing momentum. Faltering trade? Figures for April show a distinct slowing of export growth, tied in part to a physical decline in product shipments to the U.S. market, but also a possible easing in intra-East Asian demand, heretofore robust. Machinery orders dwindled to 1.1% in April (y/y) from 8% in the preceding month and manufacturing production on the same measure dropped to 1.8% from 3% (on an annualized basis output is off 3.6% (saar)). Given the need to generate continued impetus from the foreign sector to keep the economy’s growth above board, it seems likely that GDP gains will diminish over the next quarters. Further evidence for this development stems from a new coincident indicator of which readings prompted the Cabinet Office to state that the economy was at a “turning point”. Inflation rising. The Bank of Japan is holding its key policy rate at 0.5% as it watches inflation risks, focusing on whether higher oil and food prices will threaten economic growth and raise inflationary expectations. Import prices have escalated into double digits, while both corporate goods prices (PPI) and consumer prices are moving at a clip toward decadal highs. The run-up in inflation is sapping consumer purchasing power and lowering sentiment levels. Consumer confidence fell to the second lowest level on record in May, and together with rising unemployment has prompted a scale-back in household purchases.

2.93.3

4.0

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q4-2007 Q1-2008 P Q1-2008 R

Source: Cabinet Office and DECPG calculations.

Japan first-quarter GDP revised up on stronger investment

growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points

Net X

Invest

PCE

Gvt

dStok

Japan’s orders, exports and production falter in April

orders and export volumes [R], IP mfgr [L] ch% 3mma y/y

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08-5

0

5

10

15

20

Source: Cabinet Office-- Thomson/Datastream.

Exports [R]

Production [L]

Orders [R]

Japan’s inflation increasingon fuel prices and weaker yen

Tokyo CPI, PPI- and Import price indexes, ch% 3mma y/y

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-080

3

6

9

12

15

18

Source: Japan Cabinet Office.

import price [right]

CPI [left]

PPI [left]


Euro Area

Sentiment wanes. European business and consumer sentiment are falling sharply, weighed down by increasing inflation pressures, signs of difficulties in export markets and expectations that interest rates will be on an upward path. The respected ZEW survey of German investors plummeted to a reading of (minus) 52.4 in June from (minus) 41.4; at the same time the IFO survey of German business and Banc d’France index showed expectations for growth waning in May. France’s INSEE consumer sentiment index dropped to record lows in that month—a reading of (minus) 41, lowest since the measure was introduced in 1987. And the EEC’s consumer confidence index fell by more than 2 points to (minus) 14.7 in June. Weaker growth ahead. Registering a fifth decline in succession, German factory orders dropped a large 1.8% in April (m/m) on a sharp 3.8% contraction in overseas orders, carrying annualized decline in the latter measure to 14%. German and European manufacturers are hurting as household spending continues in steep decline and the strength of the euro is beginning to weigh on export performance. German output dropped a substantial 0.7% in April (m/m) cutting underlying momentum from a solid 8.8% in the first quarter to 3.6% (saar). Surveys of European purchasing managers in services industries also revealed a cooling in activity from a reading of 52 in April to 50.6 in May. ECB and inflation. Euro Zone inflation ramped-up to 3.7% in May (y/y), the highest in 16 years, as despite the strength of the euro, imported fuels- and food prices continue to pressure inflation higher across the area. The ECB is now in the difficult position of deciding whether to raise policy rates to stem price pressures against a background of economic activity that is displaying increased weakness. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at the recent Bank press conference that the ECB may have to raise benchmark interest rates 25 basis points in July to combat inflation, with a particular concern for “second round” effects on wages.

European surveys broadly lowerIFO ‘expect’, Banc d’France [left], EEC consumer sentiment [right]

95

98

100

103

105

108

110

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

Source: IFO, BdF and EEC through Thomson/Datastream.

EEC consumer [right]

IFO expectations [left]

Banc d’France [left]

German April factory orders plummet--export orders down 14% (saar)

factory orders, domestic, overseas, ch% saar

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08

Source: Bundesbank-- Thomson/Datastream.

Export orders

Domestic orders

HICP breaches 16-year highs pushed by energy costs

HICP [left]; HICP energy [right], ch% year on year

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

HICP [L]HICP Energy [R]

Source: Eurostat through Thomson/Datastream.


Industrial Production Strong but moderating IP growth in developing countries. Growth in industrial production (IP) in developing countries has moderated, easing to a still-strong 9.2% (saar) in the three months ending April from 12.1% in the three months ending March 2008. This remains impressive in contrast with developments in high-income countries, where production growth dipped into negative territory despite surprisingly strong performance in Europe. Euro Zone growth picked-up to 3.3% in the three months through April (saar) from 3% in March. In the United States, output contracted 3.2% in the three months through May, as utilities- and consumer goods producers faltered. Weakness in some developing regions. Disappointing first quarter performance in Brazil and unrest in Argentina weighed on production growth in Latin America, where output plunged to 1.1% (saar) in the first quarter of 2008, from 6% during the final quarter of 2007. IP performed well in Europe and Central Asia’s developing countries, picking up to 10% in the first quarter of 2008. But in broad terms, developing country output growth has started to lose momentum on markedly lower domestic purchasing power due to higher retail fuel and food prices. East Asia outside China is feeling the pinch of slower world growth. The industrial sector in emerging Asia, a manufacturing powerhouse is also feeling the blues of weaker demand from major export markets. Outside China, where government spending on reconstruction and infrastructure will support industrial output, momentum is slowing both on account of weaker export performance as well as reduced purchasing power among domestic consumers.

Developing countries continue to outperform IP in high-income countries

industrial production, ch% (3m/3m saar)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

High Income

Developing countries

Production in ECA holding up, Latin America shows signs of weakness

industrial production, ch% (q/q saar)

0

3

6

9

12

15



Europe and Central Asia

Latin America and the Carribean

IP in China showing moderation,other East Asia in sharp decline

industrial production ch% (q/q saar)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



Other East Asia

China


International Trade

Oil imports skyrocket in 2008. High income oil importers expect to see their oil import bills rise to record highs. Should crude oil prices remain elevated for the remainder of 2008 (currently projected at an average $110/bbl for the year) net oil imports as a share of GDP is expected to reach 4.7% for the Euro area, 4.2% in Japan and 3.7% for the United States. Shares in 1995 averaged 0.75% for the OECD, while it averaged near 1.5% during the early 2000s. The build-up in oil as a proportion to GDP is purely a price phenomenon, as volumes of landed crude oil across the industrial countries have declined moderately over the last decade. U.S. and E.U. capital goods exports retain strong tenor. Exports of capital goods from the United States strengthened to reach 9.6% growth (3mma y/y) during the first quarter of 2008, the sharpest gain since the end of 2006. Exports of machinery and transport equipment from Japan, however, continued weak and dropped to a 4.2% pace during the first quarter, the slowest growth since 2005. Meanwhile capital goods from Germany picked up speed in February-March 2008, following slight negative growth in January (the first time export growth reached negative territory since November 2003). U.S. current account deficit widens on oil. The U.S. current account deficit (CAB) reached $211 billion during the first quarter of 2008, a deterioration of 1% from last quarter and 4% from the first quarter of 2007. Currently oil accounts for 42% of the deficit on merchandise trade up from 26% in 2005. Despite increased oil imports, the CAB/GDP ratio averaged 5% during the first quarter, a little higher than last quarter’s 4.8%, but considerably lower than the 5.8% registered a year ago. The improvement is due to increases in services and income, which reached a surplus of $65 billion in 2008Q1 up from $37 billion in 2007Q1. It should be noted that the U.S. non-oil goods deficit has improved markedly since the start of 2007, in step with improved U.S. export performance and compression of imports accompanying the slowing of domestic demand.

Oil imports as a share of GDP up sharplyoil imports as a share of GP (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

European Union

Source: UN Comtrade, National Sources.

USA

Japan

Fore cast,assum ing pr ice of oilaverage s $110 /bbl in 2008

U.S. and German capital goods exports regaining momentum

exports of capital goods in nominal LCU, ch% (3mma y/y)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2006M1 2006M4 2006M7 2006M10 2007M1 2007M4 2007M7 2007M10 2008M1 2008M4

Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG calculations.

Japan

USA

Germany

U.S. current account deficit widens on oil during first quarternon-oil and oil balances ($bn) [L] and current account as %GDP [R]

-240

-200

-160

-120

-80

-40

0

Q1 2005 Q3 2005 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

non-oil balance

oil balance

CAB/GDP [R]


Commodity Prices

Oil prices rise on supply concerns. Crude oil prices (WTI) increased to near $140/bbl on expectations of tight supply due to strong demand growth in developing countries—particularly in Asia and in oil exporting countries—sluggish non-OPEC supply growth, falling stocks, and OPEC output restraint. Non-OPEC supply has slowed sharply in the past year and was flat in the first quarter of 2008. OPEC, which has shown little inclination to raise output, may provide some relief from its largest exporter. Saudi Arabia said it would raise production 0.3mb/d in June and a further 0.2mb/d increase may be forthcoming. Saudi Arabia has called for an oil producer-consumer meeting in Jeddah on June 22nd, and OPEC meets next on September 9th. Inventories tight. The typical global seasonal build of petroleum stocks in the second quarter will be quite weak and will require a large build in the third quarter to keep the balance comfortable heading into next winter. Crude oil inventories in the United States have declined due to a seasonal upturn in refinery runs and decline in crude oil imports. Product inventories are even tighter, particularly for middle distillates. Refiners are struggling to produce ultra-low sulfur diesel and this is causing refiners to bid up the price of light crudes. And rising volumes of ethanol into the gasoline pool is resulting in lower production of gasoline and other products, thereby contributing the tight diesel market. Non-OPEC supply falters. Non-OPEC oil supply outside the CIS has been disappointing this decade, with non-OPEC growth slumping sharply the past year. Significant gains in places like Brazil, Canada and West Africa have been largely offset by large falloffs in the North Sea, the United States and more recently Mexico. And production in Russia—which provided much of the growth this decade—fell in 1Q-08 for the first in 9 years. Production has been hampered by several factors: shortages of equipment and skilled labor; rising costs; technical problems; depletion of ageing fields; higher taxes; renegotiation of contracts and nationalization and diminishing access to abundant low-cost reserves.

Oil prices higher on supply fears

25

35

45

55

65

75

8595

105

115125

135

Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

$/bbl mb/d

Oil price [L scale]

OPEC-11 Production (x Angola) [R]

Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. fall on higher refinery runs

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

M bbl

5-year high-low ranges

Source: U.S. DOE and DECPG Commodities Group.

Non-OPEC supply growth slumps

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08

OPECOtherFSU

kb/d

Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.


Flooding in U.S. Midwest threatens grain yields. Agriculture prices moderated in April and May, but flooding in the U.S. Midwest has sent corn and soybean prices to new highs. Crop conditions are the worst since 1996 as flooding has ruined some crops and delayed planting. The U.S. corn crop was already expected to decline after farmers planted 8.1% fewer acres and global inventories may fall to the lowest level in 24 years by August 31st according to the USDA. Vegetable oils continue to rise (high substitutability for consumers) because of strong demand for food in Asia and biofuels more widely, and lower planting of soybeans in the United States. Elsewhere, wheat prices have dropped one-third from its peak this year on large expected output in the United States. Metals prices fall on demand concerns and improving supply. Most metals prices eased further in the last month on concerns about the tenor of global demand, rising stocks and improvement in supply expectations. Zinc prices more-than halved from peaks last year due to expansion and commissioning of new mines. Stocks are expected to rise and prices could weaken further. Nickel and lead prices also more- than halved from 2007 peaks due to weak demand (particularly stainless steel for nickel) and new supplies coming on line over the next year. But copper and tin prices moved higher this year on supply constraints and falling stocks, while aluminum prices remain supported by rising costs of energy and raw materials. Freight rates drop from peaks on easing bulk shipments. Dry bulk freight rates plunged 20% from record highs in May on expectations that demand for ships will ease in the near-term. The recent offshore gas explosion in Western Australia may cause a short-term disruption to Australian iron ore (and other resource) shipments, leading to a cancellation of ships. There are also indications that Brazilian producer, Vale, may start turning away ships outside Brazilian ports, as large queues have formed following recent delays in ramping up Brazil’s iron ore production. The slump in rates may be temporary as iron ore and coal shipments are expected to recover from problems this year.

Corn and soybean prices riseon threats of flooding

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Jan-06Jan-07

Jan-08

100

200

300

400

500

600

700c/bushel c/bushel

Soybeans

Corn

Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.

Zinc prices plunge on rebound in mine supply

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

Jan-05Jul-0

5Jan-06

Jul-07

Jan-07Jul-0

7Jan-08

050100150200250300350400450500550600650

$/ton ‘000 tons

Zinc price

LME stocks

Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

Freight rates ease

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08

Baltic dry freight index

Source: Datastream and DECPG Commodities Group.


International Finance

Slowdown in flows. Capital flows to emerging markets retreated to $30 billion in May from $42 billion in April on a sharp falloff in bank lending. Over the year to date, flows stand 37% below the like period of 2007, with all segments diminishing. Bond issuance was steady at $12 billion in the month as corporate-sector issuers continued to dominate the market, accounting for 90% of total volume in May. Bank lending dropped to $10 billion from $17 billion due to a falloff in borrowing from Emerging Europe and Latin America, notably Russia and Brazil. The decline in lending also reflects more-restrained supply, as banks reduce leverage and raise capital. New equity placements fell 40% to $8 billion in the month, with the key adjustment in Indonesia, where volume dropped $4.1 billion. Equities disappoint in 2008. EM equities have performed relatively poorly over 2008 to date, exhibiting much volatility as markets faced several sell-offs over January-March. Following a rebound in April/May, equities are down once more in early June, posting a negative return of 9.2% thus far this year. The only two countries to show gains this year, Brazil and Mexico are up 7.1% and 5.8% respectively. In contrast, China is down 46.8%, and stocks in Hungary and Poland, where interest rates are up sharply, are down 16.9% and 22% respectively. Equities may remain under pressure as concerns regarding inflation begin to influence investor sentiment. Bond spreads narrow. EM bond spreads continued to narrow in June, in line with a tightening of high-yield spreads in the OECD. Along with limited supply and positive technicals, the recent upgrades of Brazil and Peru to investment grade provided solid support. Spreads have remained remarkably stable at lower levels in the last months, despite the sell-off in U.S. Treasuries. EMBIG spreads are now 80 basis points lower than their mid-March peak, though returns declined over the last weeks. EM debt appears to be relatively immune from concerns about a renewed bout of credit weakness, but still unsettled conditions underlying U.S. benchmark interest rates is likely to weigh on market sentiment.

Bank lending falls again in May

Source: DECPG Finance Team.

Gross capital flow s to emerging markets

$ billion

Q1 Total Q 1 Jan-May Total Q1 Apr May YTD

Total 96 494 166 294 683 114 42 30 186

Bonds 42 137 58 88 146 14 13 12 39

Banks 39 246 81 140 343 80 17 10 107

Equity 15 111 26 66 194 20 13 8 41

Lat. America 23 116 38 60 157 18 14 10 41 Bonds 14 41 20 28 45 5 5 6 16

E. Europe 36 179 81 135 252 39 14 11 65

Bonds 17 64 28 43 64 5 7 5 18

Asia 25 153 30 74 213 47 11 5 63

Bonds 8 19 8 13 23 3 0 1 3

Others 12 45 16 25 60 10 3 4 17

2006 2007 2008

EM equities suffer in 2008returns over 2008 to date (%)

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Develo

ped EM

Brazil

Mexico

Russia

Argen

tina

Indone

sia

Hung

ary

Poland In

dia

Turke

yChin

a

Vietna

m

Source: Bloomberg and DECPG Finance Team.

EM bond spreads have remained stable of late

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

Jan-07 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08

Source: Datastream and DECPG calculations.

high-yield OECD bond spead and EMBIG EM spread, basis points

EM spread

HY-OECD


Currencies

Dollar up against majors. Over the last month the dollar’s rebound against euro and yen gained more traction, as the Federal Reserve effectively called a “halt” to policy rate cuts for the near term, and tax rebate checks were spent to push U.S. retail sales up a full percentage point in May, heartening markets. Mr. Bernanke’s comments regarding a “strong dollar” (regardless of lack of effort to attain this result) helped to buoy the U.S. unit. And despite increased likelihood of a 25 basis point hike in ECB rates to stem growing inflation pressures, the dollar firmed against the euro to $1.54 at mid-June; at the same time the yen has declined a full 11% against the greenback since its peak ¥99 levels of mid-March, standing near ¥109 today. Weak yen. The yen has displayed distinct softening over the last months, in part tied to BOJ statements suggesting little chance of policy rate increases in the current environment. Disappointing export results in the wake of strong first-quarter GDP growth is likely a factor. Another possibility in the wake of declines in bourses across many emerging markets is that so-called “carry trades” are being unwound, as investors seek a return to safer havens. The Korean won has declined 15% vis-à-vis the yen over 2008 to date, while the Indian rupee and the Thai baht have also accrued double-digit losses. Proceeds in these currencies are first converted to yen (pressuring local units) in turn yen is converted to dollars, pressuring yen-dollar. Interest differentials stabilize. Market expectations of coming shifts in monetary policy in the United States and Europe have helped stabilize euro-market interest differentials between dollar and euro. ECB President Trichet strongly hinted at a 25 basis point increase in policy rates in the next month; while Mr. Bernanke of the Fed has effectively turned expectations from further cuts in Fed funds to a possible move-up in coming months to stem inflation pressures.

1.410

1.430

1.450

1.470

1.490

1.510

1.530

1.550

1.570

1.590

1.610

Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

Source: Thomson/Datastream.

yen/USD

USD/Euro (inverse)

Dollar moves up on the yen... in trading range on euro $1.54 to $1.58

USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right]

A look at yen cross rates:are carry trades unwinding?

Yen/LCU: change 2008 ytd. vs full year 2007 percent

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Kor won

India Rpe

Thai bh at

Indo Rph

Aus$

Ch RMB

S$

2007 2008Source: Thomson/Datastream.

Appreciation of Local Currency

Libor differentials stabilize: U.S. likely on hold, ECB to raise 25 bp

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

Jan-08 Jan-08 Feb-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08

Source: Datastream and DECPG calculations.

LIBOR-6 months and EURIBOR 6-months, percent

USD LIBOR

EURIBOR

differential: US less euro rates


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 2008

2000 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

World 100.0 3.4 4.6 5.5 5.5 7.7 5.6 4.2 5.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 ..

High-income countries 77.5 1.8 2.1 3.0 2.5 2.7 4.8 1.2 0.8 0.1 -0.8 0.2 ..

Industrial countries 73.0 1.8 2.1 3.2 2.7 2.6 4.9 1.0 0.2 0.1 -0.8 0.3 ..

United States 25.2 2.1 3.3 2.2 1.7 3.2 3.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 -0.7 -0.2

Japan 17.5 0.7 1.8 4.2 2.9 3.1 6.5 2.7 -1.6 2.0 -3.8 -0.1 ..

Euro Area 23.0 1.9 0.8 3.4 2.9 0.7 4.8 0.9 2.4 0.2 -0.7 1.3 ..

United Kindgom 4.1 0.0 -2.0 0.3 0.3 3.0 -1.3 0.9 -0.9 0.3 -0.4 0.2 ..

Other high income 4.5 2.2 4.6 1.6 0.7 6.9 7.4 4.8 13.1 -0.2 0.1 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.2 -3.4 2.4 2.4 -1.5 -4.6 -3.5 8.2 -17.2 -6.1 -7.6 .. ..

Singapore 0.4 6.7 9.2 12.1 6.4 18.7 30.9 -30.8 49.2 2.6 3.9 -9.2 ..

Taiwan (China) 1.1 5.2 3.4 4.6 8.2 24.9 19.2 13.4 -2.5 -2.2 -1.3 2.0 ..

Developing countries 22.5 7.2 9.5 10.3 11.3 16.9 6.3 9.7 12.7 -0.1 2.1 0.3 ..

East Asia and Pacific 8.7 11.0 13.8 14.3 15.9 26.3 8.8 11.5 19.0 -0.5 3.7 -0.3 1.8

China 6.3 13.4 15.6 16.5 17.7 29.2 9.1 12.3 20.1 -0.5 4.5 -0.6 1.8

Indonesia 0.9 1.1 1.9 -2.0 5.6 8.6 -2.0 -3.1 19.1 -2.2 0.2 0.9 ..

Thailand 0.6 7.0 9.1 7.4 8.2 8.0 18.4 16.9 7.9 0.1 -3.7 1.4 ..

Malaysia 0.5 5.1 3.6 5.0 2.3 7.1 4.8 7.6 4.1 -0.8 -4.3 2.5 ..

Europe and Central Asia 3.2 4.9 4.9 8.6 7.1 4.8 4.6 6.3 7.2 -0.2 0.6 2.5 ..

Russian Federation 1.0 4.3 4.3 7.7 6.3 8.8 3.6 7.4 2.1 -1.1 7.8 -1.3 ..

Turkey 0.5 3.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 4.6 5.9 5.0 13.1 1.1 -6.5 4.0 ..

Poland 0.6 6.5 4.7 11.8 9.5 0.3 7.2 8.5 15.6 -0.1 -4.7 7.2 ..

Czech Republic 0.2 5.3 7.3 11.0 8.1 -1.7 1.4 5.6 15.4 -2.1 -4.2 10.4 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 5.9 2.4 4.1 4.5 4.6 5.6 4.7 7.6 0.6 0.0 -1.3 0.3 ..

Brazil 1.5 2.8 3.4 2.9 5.9 10.4 6.6 7.4 2.3 -0.5 0.6 0.2 ..

Mexico 1.7 .. 2.9 5.4 1.8 4.4 3.4 0.6 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 -1.8 ..

Argentina 0.8 2.6 8.0 7.7 5.6 5.9 4.5 21.6 1.5 -1.0 0.6 0.4 ..

Colombia 0.3 2.8 3.9 10.7 10.7 8.1 1.6 9.5 -10.3 3.7 -15.4 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.9 2.5 4.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -3.4 4.5 7.1 0.6 0.5 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.4 4.9 -4.2 -4.7 -2.3 -0.4 19.0 10.7 0.2 0.4 .. ..

Iran 0.4 0.7 3.4 -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 -3.7 1.5 11.2 0.7 0.9 .. ..

Egypt 0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria 0.3 3.7 7.2 0.9 1.1 0.9 -0.7 5.4 1.6 0.2 -0.1 .. ..

South Asia 1.6 6.8 9.1 10.6 9.0 9.5 3.0 4.2 8.0 2.4 0.0 0.9 ..

India 1.3 6.7 7.9 10.6 9.9 6.3 3.0 8.9 6.9 2.2 -0.2 0.9 ..

Pakistan 0.2 7.6 15.0 10.7 5.5 34.9 1.3 -22.0 16.1 3.8 1.5 .. ..

Bangladesh 0.1 .. 12.6 10.8 .. 6.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.1 .. 5.0 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.4 2.2 3.6 4.8 4.2 -0.5 -2.4 11.3 -1.8 3.0 -4.1 7.5 ..

Nigeria 0.2 .. 0.0 0.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 76.2 1.9 2.2 3.4 2.8 2.5 4.8 1.1 0.8 0.1 -1.0 0.6 ..

Developing excl. China 16.2 3.3 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.2 3.6 7.2 5.6 0.2 -0.5 1.4 ..

Developing oil exporters 2.8 0.3 2.6 -1.2 0.9 3.4 -2.2 1.7 10.5 -0.6 0.2 .. ..

Dev. non-oil exporters 19.7 8.2 10.4 11.7 12.3 18.2 7.1 10.3 13.0 -0.1 2.2 0.3 ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.




Real GDP a

High-income countries 78.5 2.5 2.5 3.0 2.6 2.1 4.0 1.8 1.8 .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 75.3 2.4 2.4 2.9 2.5 2.0 3.4 1.5 2.1 .. .. .. ..

United States 10.9 2.9 3.1 2.9 2.2 3.8 4.9 0.6 0.9 .. .. .. ..

Japan 20.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.0 -2.5 0.9 2.9 4.0 .. .. .. ..

Euro Area 27.3 2.2 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.5 2.6 1.2 3.2 .. .. .. ..

United Kindgom 6.4 2.8 1.8 2.9 3.0 3.4 2.6 2.5 1.6 .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.2 4.2 5.5 5.9 6.1 2.5 24.8 10.1 -9.1 .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 0.7 .. 7.1 7.0 6.4 2.6 40.4 19.7 -23.7 .. .. .. ..

Singapore 0.4 5.2 7.3 8.2 7.7 13.4 5.1 -4.8 14.6 .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) 1.4 4.3 4.2 4.9 5.7 -2.2 31.6 11.4 -11.8 .. .. .. ..

Real merchandise imports b

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.6 6.8 4.0 3.3 4.5 3.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 6.0 6.2 2.7 1.5 3.1 2.5 2.1 -0.5 -2.4 2.7 ..

United States 23.8 8.2 5.9 5.7 1.3 2.2 0.5 -0.5 -2.3 2.6 -6.8 2.8 ..

Japan 6.7 5.2 3.5 3.9 -3.1 -3.8 -4.7 -3.5 -2.2 -2.9 1.3 0.2 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 5.7 5.5 6.6 5.4 6.6 5.2 6.9 -1.0 1.2 3.6 ..

United Kindgom 6.7 6.3 6.8 10.6 -4.7 -13.6 3.9 3.2 0.1 -0.8 -3.5 2.2 ..

Other high income 11.7 5.6 9.4 9.4 10.3 11.7 10.9 9.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 6.6 8.5 10.1 10.4 13.0 9.9 10.2 8.2 -11.3 4.5 6.4 ..

Singapore 2.3 5.2 8.6 11.2 6.3 6.1 3.5 8.4 14.6 -4.0 3.4 5.8 -8.9

Taiwan (China) 2.2 .. 1.1 3.8 -0.3 1.1 2.6 0.1 6.4 -2.0 7.9 -11.6 -6.2

Import Prices c

High-income countries 100.0 .. 6.7 6.2 6.5 4.5 5.3 11.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 88.3 .. 7.2 6.6 7.4 5.2 6.2 13.0 17.2 0.7 3.1 1.0 ..

United States 23.8 -0.1 7.5 4.9 4.2 1.9 3.2 10.6 14.1 0.2 3.0 2.4 2.3

Japan 6.7 -1.4 10.2 8.2 10.5 8.3 10.2 18.6 27.3 3.4 4.7 -4.0 ..

Euro Area 37.1 .. 7.6 9.0 8.2 6.3 6.7 13.5 18.1 -0.3 2.6 1.5 ..

United Kindgom 6.7 -1.1 3.6 5.0 10.2 9.2 8.7 12.0 11.7 0.8 3.7 1.0 ..

Other high income 11.7 -1.0 4.4 4.6 3.5 2.0 2.1 6.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 4.1 -1.2 1.9 1.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 0.1 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 ..

Singapore 2.3 -0.2 6.4 7.5 3.5 0.6 1.5 10.6 14.9 0.7 1.9 3.1 3.4

Taiwan (China) 2.2 -1.6 6.4 7.6 8.0 6.2 5.8 13.3 19.7 1.9 3.7 2.4 3.4

Real effective exchange rates d

Euro Area 33.5 1.4 -0.8 0.9 4.1 3.1 2.8 6.4 7.4 0.0 2.6 1.6 -0.5

United States 14.4 -1.0 -2.7 -2.7 -4.7 -3.7 -4.3 -7.7 -9.6 -0.6 -2.4 -0.4 0.6

Japan 7.4 -2.3 -5.1 -8.9 -6.5 -9.5 -6.2 -3.3 4.4 0.2 4.7 -3.0 -1.0

United Kindgom 5.4 0.0 -2.4 -0.2 2.1 3.6 2.0 -2.6 -9.1 -0.9 -1.6 -2.3 -0.3

Canada 3.5 0.5 3.5 3.2 0.8 -1.8 2.8 8.7 5.9 0.1 -1.4 -2.3 1.0

Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -3.7 -2.6 -4.9 -5.1 -4.4 -6.3 -9.3 -1.5 -3.0 -0.4 0.6

Korea, Rep. 2.5 0.6 10.4 6.9 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 -2.7 -6.5 0.1 -5.3 -1.3 -3.2

Singapore 2.3 0.9 4.6 5.4 7.3 9.7 6.1 4.5 3.7 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.8

Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.1 -1.9 0.1 -1.3 0.2 -2.7 -3.4 -3.3 0.4 0.1 3.3 0.8

Switzerland 1.7 -0.7 -3.8 -4.3 -4.9 -6.0 -4.9 -4.2 1.2 0.5 3.5 -0.5 -2.4

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ Real GDP aggregated using 1995 weights.b/ On a customs or BoP basis, as available. Weights are 1995 merchandise import: aggregate calculated as sum of components.c/ Aggregate prices are implicit prices of aggregate US dollar value divided by aggregate constant 1995 dollar volume.d/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest

1995 1998-07 2005 2006 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr May 18-Jun

Policy Rates

United States .. 3.78 3.21 4.96 5.02 5.25 5.09 4.48 3.16 2.60 2.27 1.99 2.06

Japan .. 0.31 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Euro Area .. .. 2.02 2.76 3.84 3.80 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

United Kindgom .. 5.05 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.39 5.74 5.68 5.35 5.25 5.08 5.00 5.00

Ten year bond

United States .. 4.86 4.28 4.78 4.63 4.82 4.74 4.27 3.69 3.56 3.62 3.87 4.07

Japan .. 1.49 1.38 1.74 1.67 1.73 1.72 1.56 1.39 1.32 1.38 1.64 1.84

Euro Area .. .. 3.35 3.73 4.20 4.31 4.35 4.23 3.97 3.84 4.04 4.19 4.52

United Kindgom .. 4.88 4.41 4.48 5.01 5.17 5.19 4.82 4.50 4.44 4.53 4.79 5.12

Spreads (Basis points)b,c

Developing countries .. 455 306 198 197 162 216 235 295 315 295 275 265

East Asia and Pacific .. 243 265 180 161 129 181 197 257 269 254 244 250

China .. 76 58 64 71 51 76 104 140 152 157 128 132

Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Thailand .. .. 50 54 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia .. 134 84 84 87 70 97 109 131 143 136 128 140

Europe and Central Asia .. 352 185 149 158 134 165 185 237 261 244 225 230

Russian Federation .. 348 156 111 121 97 131 152 191 205 185 161 160

Turkey .. 476 274 223 214 193 219 229 292 328 312 296 311

Poland .. 106 51 59 61 52 69 73 108 119 106 101 102

Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean .. 549 364 213 208 167 231 251 314 335 314 290 275

Brazil .. 635 394 233 180 150 187 198 258 276 243 204 184

Mexico .. 221 167 137 126 102 130 150 190 193 171 155 156

Argentina .. 3020 2586 343 320 267 414 388 483 530 556 553 543

Colombia .. 412 323 194 161 127 167 182 251 264 216 179 169

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 324 338 476 434 514 539 546 559 548 508 458

Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. .. 65 79 86 52 80 154 230 253 219 172 140

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. .. 199 199 283 171 374 423 568 571 543 568 674

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 443 277 266 288 270 285 315 402 431 394 368 248

South Africa .. 169 95 90 100 68 118 138 233 272 227 208 208

Nigeria .. 746 417 245 77 23 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Gross inflows e

Developing countries .. .. 361 494 683 191 179 147 114 44 42 30 ..

East Asia and Pacific .. .. 85 111 145 50 38 38 27 11 10 4 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 129 179 252 74 47 49 39 13 14 11 ..

Latin America and Carribean .. .. 87 116 157 31 57 32 18 5 14 10 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 22 16 15 2 6 3 3 2 2 4 ..

South Asia .. .. 22 42 69 20 22 15 20 10 1 1 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 15 30 46 14 9 10 6 3 1 1 ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures, except the last month, which are the values reported on the mentioned date. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of the monthly figures.b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.e/In billions of US dollars.


Weightsb Average 2007 2008 2008 2008


Energy .. .. 188.2 220.9 244.8 228.5 251.1 298.6 331.1 328.4 352.7 376.6 421.3

Coal, Australia .. 6.5 181.4 187.0 250.4 220.6 260.4 318.0 434.3 502.9 450.5 468.6 499.0

Crude oil, average .. 14.0 189.1 227.7 251.9 234.3 260.4 310.3 337.6 330.8 360.8 385.3 434.4

Natural gas , Europe .. 12.1 164.0 219.5 221.7 207.4 216.1 242.9 281.5 281.0 286.1 315.9 320.9

Non-energy 100.00 .. 148.9 192.1 224.8 226.7 228.8 237.3 281.4 282.2 300.9 306.3 307.3

Agriculture 69.10 .. 133.5 150.4 180.5 173.0 183.3 200.9 236.6 238.3 251.7 254.6 258.1

Beverages 16.90 .. 137.2 145.4 169.9 167.9 173.3 179.4 210.7 216.4 222.8 213.7 216.6

Cocoa 3.90 1.9 169.8 175.7 215.5 220.8 220.7 220.5 273.5 276.4 301.0 287.9 296.3

Coffee, arabica 8.00 -4.2 131.9 131.4 141.9 132.9 141.2 154.2 171.1 180.6 172.1 161.6 163.0

Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 122.1 163.1 209.1 206.2 219.5 221.4 270.9 278.8 294.4 268.7 262.9

Food 29.40 .. 133.6 147.0 184.7 172.6 189.7 212.9 257.2 258.3 276.5 282.5 285.1

Fats and oils 10.10 .. 132.2 137.9 208.8 191.1 216.2 259.1 310.2 313.4 325.5 317.8 324.7

Palm oil 2.30 3.6 136.0 154.2 251.5 245.7 265.1 299.0 372.6 373.9 402.6 378.4 389.2

Soybean meal 4.10 1.1 113.3 110.6 162.2 137.6 163.6 212.6 234.4 239.5 234.2 248.5 248.9

Soybeans 2.00 2.7 129.7 126.8 181.3 159.7 186.7 228.8 265.6 270.0 271.4 263.4 270.8

Grains 6.90 .. 126.5 149.8 189.0 174.7 188.3 215.6 274.6 275.3 305.0 340.6 335.3

Maize 1.70 3.4 111.5 137.6 184.9 180.1 172.2 194.2 248.9 248.6 264.7 278.4 275.0

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 0.7 141.4 150.6 161.3 157.7 161.6 169.9 236.2 229.6 293.5 448.1 459.6

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 4.8 133.5 168.3 223.7 180.3 240.9 299.6 360.9 372.5 385.4 317.5 288.2

Other food 12.40 .. 141.8 156.4 149.0 146.5 156.1 149.7 171.9 170.5 186.2 183.3 187.4

Bananas, US 2.30 2.7 142.2 159.7 159.4 166.3 164.8 153.9 197.2 186.9 242.1 228.1 217.7

Sugar, world 7.50 -2.3 96.4 126.1 98.0 94.0 97.3 100.6 118.0 121.2 121.1 117.5 114.2

Raw materials 22.80 .. 131.5 161.4 175.8 176.4 172.8 182.8 199.5 200.6 206.2 207.9 213.7

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 -2.2 93.5 97.3 107.1 97.8 114.3 117.5 129.0 127.1 135.8 127.7 126.0

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 8.5 225.1 315.9 343.3 350.5 320.5 367.4 412.9 421.6 421.0 427.6 459.5

Sawnwood, Malaysia 2.90 2.0 110.9 126.0 135.6 135.8 138.0 134.9 144.7 143.9 153.4 158.2 157.0

Fertilizers 2.70 .. 163.4 168.6 240.1 224.6 240.2 292.0 409.4 384.2 489.9 574.7 646.5

Triple superphosphate 0.90 7.0 146.3 146.4 246.2 240.4 272.3 308.3 519.0 529.7 635.9 747.2 753.0

Metals and minerals 28.20 .. 178.7 280.3 314.0 337.1 320.8 305.7 358.7 360.8 380.5 381.7 369.8

Aluminum 7.90 5.1 122.5 165.9 170.3 178.3 164.4 157.7 177.0 179.3 194.0 191.0 187.4

Copper 9.30 12.1 202.9 370.7 392.5 421.3 425.2 396.3 429.9 435.0 465.4 478.9 462.2

Gold .. 7.7 159.4 216.6 249.7 239.2 244.1 282.4 332.1 330.5 347.1 326.0 318.5

Nickel 2.20 18.3 170.7 280.8 431.0 556.3 349.7 338.3 335.2 323.6 361.5 333.0 297.9

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$) .. 14.0 53.4 64.3 71.1 66.1 73.5 87.6 95.3 93.4 101.8 108.8 122.6

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.




Export valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 14.1 23.1 22.1 19.4 22.1 19.4 33.2 41.5 -5.3 -4.4 9.1 ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 15.7 23.0 23.4 21.7 12.3 16.8 17.2 36.1 -11.7 -4.7 10.1 ..

China 16.7 20.9 28.4 27.2 25.7 10.2 20.7 11.4 41.3 -13.6 -6.3 11.0 8.6

Indonesia 4.2 7.8 19.7 17.7 13.1 27.4 1.6 33.6 70.3 -1.3 6.3 -4.5 ..

Thailand 4.6 10.1 15.0 16.9 17.5 20.2 -0.3 62.0 11.7 -9.6 -2.2 12.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 16.2 21.9 22.9 23.1 25.5 22.6 60.3 64.5 1.0 -4.2 8.4 ..

Russian Federation 7.1 15.1 33.1 24.5 17.1 37.7 20.6 116.7 52.5 -0.1 0.2 3.5 ..

Turkey 1.8 15.1 16.3 16.4 25.3 19.2 9.8 40.3 135.5 -7.1 -12.4 8.2 ..

Poland 2.1 18.4 19.3 24.3 25.6 25.8 20.8 43.8 72.3 6.5 -5.8 7.0 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 9.5 20.4 18.5 12.6 24.9 14.1 30.9 16.5 -0.7 -5.4 6.5 ..

Brazil 3.7 11.7 22.6 16.3 16.7 25.2 -3.1 39.2 2.8 2.2 -20.1 22.3 25.4

Mexico 11.2 9.4 14.0 16.7 8.8 21.8 24.4 11.3 13.9 -3.0 7.9 -1.4 ..

Argentina 1.8 7.8 16.8 15.1 20.1 24.5 40.2 95.6 21.3 -5.3 -16.1 11.4 ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 14.9 31.8 27.8 9.8 40.5 38.1 52.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 12.3 39.4 20.6 2.5 52.8 10.5 52.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 15.1 34.6 32.5 18.2 14.2 6.6 99.4 141.7 -1.6 20.3 .. ..

South Asia 4.3 13.4 27.8 15.7 19.6 76.8 28.7 13.2 29.8 9.9 -6.9 11.8 ..

India 2.8 15.7 31.5 17.0 22.3 88.6 33.9 12.8 27.7 10.7 -7.5 13.0 ..

Pakistan 0.6 7.2 23.2 6.1 2.8 17.3 8.5 24.1 43.6 2.8 -0.9 2.7 2.9

Bangladesh 0.4 .. 14.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 11.6 27.1 21.2 15.5 29.8 19.5 51.4 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 8.5 12.7 12.0 20.1 25.0 -5.3 49.1 17.0 -10.2 6.9 11.8 ..

Nigeria 1.4 13.5 30.7 23.9 9.1 23.3 61.5 77.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Export prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 2.6 7.3 6.4 4.1 7.4 4.4 19.4 .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 36.3 0.3 4.6 3.1 1.6 2.7 -0.6 9.9 5.8 1.0 0.0 -0.5 ..

China 16.7 -1.2 2.9 0.8 0.5 2.0 1.5 4.2 -1.6 -0.2 0.6 0.0 ..

Indonesia 4.2 5.1 15.6 17.0 8.8 47.5 -1.8 29.9 26.0 1.7 5.2 2.5 ..

Thailand 4.6 3.3 7.2 5.2 5.7 11.9 -0.3 13.3 15.0 1.3 0.7 2.4 ..

Europe and Central Asia 20.7 4.7 8.2 8.8 10.7 19.1 15.9 18.5 .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 7.1 9.5 22.8 17.1 21.4 50.4 30.0 32.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Turkey 1.8 1.8 5.7 3.5 12.4 18.7 11.0 29.9 25.5 1.5 3.7 2.0 ..

Poland 2.1 -0.9 -12.8 6.4 0.2 -14.8 1.4 -16.7 .. -0.6 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 24.0 4.1 11.1 10.9 7.7 16.9 15.4 24.8 22.1 1.6 3.2 .. ..

Brazil 3.7 2.3 12.1 12.5 10.5 16.1 19.1 24.8 26.2 0.3 2.5 2.7 ..

Mexico 11.2 4.2 8.2 7.5 5.1 15.4 12.9 20.0 12.7 1.5 3.3 2.3 ..

Argentina 1.8 1.8 1.7 8.6 11.4 13.4 14.0 46.2 56.8 3.5 3.6 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 8.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 5.2 12.9 46.0 22.7 1.7 91.0 28.7 -26.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.9 .. 71.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.3 .. -0.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 4.3 .. 1.5 3.9 .. 10.0 13.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 2.8 2.4 11.0 3.3 9.0 11.6 12.0 11.5 10.2 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6

Pakistan 0.6 .. 0.4 2.5 .. 6.3 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.4 .. -38.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.3 .. 10.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.0 5.0 6.6 8.1 8.9 24.7 7.2 28.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria 1.4 .. 35.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.




Import valuesDeveloping countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. 16.4 31.5 36.3 45.7 1.8 -6.9 8.6 ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 14.3 17.4 16.7 18.7 -1.8 37.5 41.1 46.1 1.3 -10.0 4.8 ..

China 19.3 21.0 17.6 19.9 20.9 -10.1 44.6 42.3 50.4 2.7 -13.8 3.4 13.0

Indonesia 2.1 6.0 24.0 5.8 21.8 43.3 25.4 55.9 82.8 4.9 -3.3 13.2 ..

Thailand 4.2 8.3 25.7 9.0 8.7 24.2 26.0 41.8 65.3 -5.8 -3.0 13.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. 29.3 29.5 35.9 51.0 3.0 -4.9 11.1 ..

Russian Federation 3.9 12.0 28.8 31.0 36.0 83.4 37.3 47.5 2.7 18.4 -3.8 14.7 ..

Turkey 3.2 13.3 19.7 19.5 21.8 9.3 30.4 33.4 101.4 -9.3 -12.6 12.5 ..

Poland 3.6 14.5 13.5 25.5 28.7 30.3 17.8 48.9 87.2 5.3 -2.5 2.6 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 8.6 18.0 19.3 18.7 19.0 34.7 22.1 35.1 2.9 -7.6 11.2 ..

Brazil 3.2 7.3 17.2 24.2 32.0 28.1 56.2 48.2 41.0 8.3 -20.6 24.4 8.1

Mexico 11.6 9.9 12.7 15.4 10.1 23.5 17.5 -1.0 30.4 -0.3 2.2 0.8 ..

Argentina 0.6 3.9 27.8 19.0 30.9 9.6 99.3 18.6 50.8 -0.6 -14.4 26.0 ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 11.3 18.1 8.8 23.0 22.2 38.3 57.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 12.1 18.5 20.2 31.7 32.3 4.0 3.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 13.4 13.3 7.5 18.8 -2.4 39.3 46.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 7.5 54.4 3.9 31.4 27.4 -5.4 127.0 0.7 8.1 -8.7 .. ..

South Asia 5.5 15.7 37.2 21.4 23.0 72.0 3.5 39.0 58.5 -4.3 0.7 12.9 ..

India 3.7 18.5 42.0 21.9 26.9 88.3 -1.8 37.9 45.6 -4.8 1.6 12.9 ..

Pakistan 0.7 10.9 41.3 17.6 9.3 5.8 35.6 43.7 142.9 -1.6 -4.0 12.6 -9.2

Bangladesh 0.5 10.6 12.0 25.1 15.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 12.3 20.5 22.0 21.9 17.4 26.8 29.0 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 11.0 15.6 23.3 18.1 10.4 14.0 38.2 13.4 0.7 5.7 8.6 ..

Nigeria 0.5 18.4 19.7 19.9 29.0 12.2 30.2 42.8 .. .. .. .. ..

Import prices b,c

Developing countries 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 35.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 19.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Indonesia 2.1 8.9 5.1 17.1 14.8 42.6 -2.7 46.3 25.2 1.8 5.9 4.0 ..

Thailand 4.2 1.8 6.3 6.5 5.4 13.8 11.7 18.6 17.8 1.2 1.2 2.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 24.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 3.9 -0.2 6.9 4.6 7.4 8.7 10.2 11.6 13.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

Turkey 3.2 3.1 6.9 10.1 7.9 19.6 11.6 32.9 29.0 1.3 3.5 4.1 ..

Poland 3.6 -1.2 -8.6 6.9 -2.0 -18.6 -4.6 2.5 .. -3.0 .. .. ..

Latin America and Caribbean 22.9 2.3 6.9 5.4 7.1 13.6 10.1 9.7 16.5 2.6 1.5 .. ..

Brazil 3.2 3.0 11.2 6.9 8.2 26.0 14.4 14.7 26.0 3.8 3.4 4.5 ..

Mexico 11.6 2.4 5.1 4.5 5.4 8.6 2.6 7.2 12.1 0.9 1.2 0.7 ..

Argentina 0.6 0.3 4.1 2.3 7.2 12.8 27.6 -10.4 14.1 4.3 1.5 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa 6.9 .. 3.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.2 3.4 3.1 7.4 4.4 7.9 19.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 1.4 .. 3.3 3.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 0.8 .. 0.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 5.5 .. 10.5 -5.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 3.7 .. 21.2 -8.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan 0.7 .. 12.9 10.1 .. 51.0 12.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Bangladesh 0.5 .. -36.4 -0.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 .. 3.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 1.9 4.2 5.9 3.5 5.8 14.8 15.0 31.6 .. .. .. .. ..

Nigeria 0.5 .. 6.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.


US$ bn. % GDP 2007 2008 2008 2008

2007 2007 2005 2006 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

World -450.5 -0.8 -234 -202 -188 -94 -215 -287 -313 -365 -372 -143 ..

High-income countries a -388.2 -1.0 -382 -449 -407 -371 -408 -469 -484 -393 -496 -322 ..

Industrial countries -486.2 -1.3 -536 -638 -557 -516 -552 -628 -630 -571 -614 -485 ..

United States -738.6 -5.4 -767 -817 -794 -797 -779 -812 -819 -839 -796 -847 ..

Japan 209.5 4.8 78 66 93 96 103 83 80 68 84 71 ..

Euro Area 27.4 0.2 22 -14 42 61 38 15 -1 44 -20 41 ..

United Kindgom -88.4 -3.2 -125 -143 -179 -161 -191 -198 -180 -181 -172 -181 ..

Other high income 97.9 6.5 154 189 150 145 143 158 129 164 91 134 ..

Hong Kong (China) 22.9 11.2 -10 -18 -23 -23 -24 -30 -22 -10 -31 -14 ..

Singapore 41.4 26.1 29 33 36 36 41 25 27 36 17 19 21

Taiwan (China) 28.3 7.5 15 20 27 22 24 33 15 18 5 15 33

Developing countries 64.0 0.5 153 255 228 288 203 192 175 9 135 172 ..

East Asia and Pacific 392.4 9.5 140 240 333 383 340 281 273 148 239 350 ..

China 339.4 11.0 101 174 263 304 276 220 222 112 197 301 277

Indonesia 11.0 2.7 28 40 40 42 38 38 41 35 47 28 ..

Thailand 10.5 4.4 -7 1 12 15 7 13 -3 -6 -5 -7 ..

Malaysia 25.8 14.8 26 30 29 29 30 31 37 35 25 50 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 14 -5 -45 -50 -68 -24 3 -9 1 -35 ..

Russian Federation 78.3 5.7 120 143 135 122 121 172 218 199 211 189 ..

Turkey -35.8 -7.1 -43 -54 -63 -58 -66 -70 -78 -77 -67 -81 ..

Poland -16.7 -4.0 -12 -17 -24 -23 -23 -27 -36 -34 -39 -32 ..

Czech Republic -5.9 -3.5 1 2 5 2 6 7 7 5 10 8 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 21.7 0.6 30 32 -2 11 -18 -6 -36 -53 -31 -70 ..

Brazil 5.5 0.5 45 46 40 48 33 34 23 21 18 19 52

Mexico -8.6 -1.0 -7 -6 -10 -14 -11 -2 -13 -21 -5 -12 ..

Argentina 6.3 2.5 12 12 11 11 8 16 14 14 11 5 ..

Colombia -6.2 -3.2 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -4 3 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 10 46 26 27 29 30 .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 98.4 26.5 100 121 105 101 105 126 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 3.1 2.5 -9 -7 -11 -11 -10 -13 -9 -12 -5 .. ..

Algeria 0.0 0.0 20 29 24 27 24 23 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. -56 -73 -97 -100 -90 -109 -133 -115 -133 -152 ..

India .. .. -39 -52 -71 -77 -65 -78 -92 -76 -93 -105 ..

Pakistan -6.9 -4.9 -9 -13 -15 -14 -16 -18 -25 -25 -24 -29 -23

Bangladesh 0.8 1.2 -3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. .. -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -5 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -20.6 -2.5 20 23 14 14 11 23 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa -20.6 -7.3 -3 -10 -10 -8 -12 -11 -11 -14 -14 -13 ..

Nigeria 19.7 13.4 19 25 21 18 22 28 .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 148.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

CAB


Weights Average

Levelb2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest


World 100.0 95.2 1.1 0.8 5.8 4.5 5.6 8.7 10.2 3.2 0.5 -0.9 -0.4

High-income countries 77.7 .. 0.8 0.5 6.1 4.4 5.6 9.2 11.0 3.8 0.4 -1.0 -0.5

Industrial countries 70.1 .. 0.8 0.6 7.0 5.0 6.4 10.4 12.2 4.2 0.4 -1.2 -0.6

United States (SDR/USD) 15.6 0.7 -0.3 -0.4 3.9 3.0 3.3 5.6 6.2 0.9 2.2 -0.8 -0.4

Japan 7.3 116.8 -1.8 -5.2 -1.2 -5.2 -1.3 4.1 13.5 6.3 -1.8 -1.6 -2.1

Euro Area 29.4 .. 0.0 1.0 9.1 7.4 7.9 12.3 14.3 5.2 1.5 -1.3 -0.3

United Kindgom 5.5 0.6 -0.7 1.2 8.7 8.8 7.8 6.8 1.2 2.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.3

Other high income 7.6 101.7 1.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.3 1.4 3.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.2

Hong Kong (China) 3.6 7.8 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Singapore 2.3 1.7 1.6 4.7 5.4 4.3 4.1 7.2 8.7 1.8 1.5 -0.1 -0.2

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.1 3.9 -1.1 -0.9 -2.8 -0.4 1.3 4.4 3.3 0.8 -0.8 0.8

Developing countries 22.3 110.4 1.9 1.6 5.0 4.7 5.6 7.2 7.8 1.3 0.7 -0.4 -0.2

East Asia and Pacific 7.4 101.8 -0.8 4.2 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.1 7.7 1.2 0.3 -0.8 -0.8

China 2.7 8.2 1.0 2.8 4.8 4.4 5.4 5.8 8.4 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.8

Indonesia 1.1 9138.6 -7.9 6.0 0.2 1.6 -1.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4

Thailand 1.3 40.1 0.0 6.2 9.7 9.9 10.7 7.8 9.7 3.4 -0.3 -1.6 -2.8

Malaysia 1.4 3.8 0.3 3.2 6.7 6.4 5.9 8.0 8.5 1.1 0.8 -1.7 -1.2

Europe and Central Asia 4.9 98.5 4.1 1.6 8.4 7.2 8.8 12.0 12.4 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.5

Russian Federation 1.5 26.4 1.9 4.0 6.3 5.2 5.1 7.9 8.5 3.4 0.9 -0.8 0.1

Turkey 0.6 1.1 6.1 -5.9 9.6 7.5 16.6 22.4 17.1 -3.9 -4.7 4.3 0.4

Poland 0.5 3.7 13.0 4.3 12.1 11.2 12.5 18.2 24.2 6.5 4.4 -0.2 0.4

Czech Republic 0.4 29.7 7.3 6.0 11.3 7.8 9.5 17.6 25.5 5.9 2.2 -1.5 2.2

Latin America and Caribbean 5.3 129.6 5.5 1.4 3.0 4.0 3.7 5.2 6.7 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.8

Brazil 1.0 2.3 20.2 11.9 11.7 10.3 13.3 20.5 21.4 1.2 1.1 1.7 1.8

Mexico 1.6 10.2 3.6 0.0 -0.3 2.5 0.0 0.4 1.9 0.4 2.1 0.7 0.8

Argentina 0.4 2.2 0.7 -4.9 -1.3 -0.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.0 -0.6 -0.3 0.5 3.0

Colombia 0.3 2234.1 13.3 -1.7 13.6 20.5 19.0 14.1 16.2 3.3 2.9 1.0 4.2

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 146.1 -0.3 -0.4 1.9 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.9 1.9 0.5 -0.1 -0.1

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.3 5815.4 -3.9 -2.3 -1.2 -1.1 -1.2 -1.2 0.2 3.0 -0.1 -2.0 -0.4

Egypt 0.3 4.8 7.2 0.8 1.7 1.1 1.6 3.5 3.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 0.2

Algeria 0.3 72.2 -1.7 0.9 4.8 3.5 6.3 6.7 7.4 1.9 1.0 2.3 0.0

South Asia 1.5 102.3 1.1 -2.8 6.2 6.7 9.6 9.6 7.8 -1.1 0.0 -4.4 -1.1

India 1.1 44.8 2.8 -2.7 9.6 10.3 14.4 14.0 10.9 -1.5 0.8 -4.9 -1.6

Pakistan 0.2 56.6 -2.1 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -3.7 -5.9 0.8

Bangladesh 0.1 58.2 -7.5 -6.7 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Sri Lanka 0.1 91.0 0.7 -3.3 -6.1 -6.9 -8.0 -3.5 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 105.7 -0.2 -3.0 0.3 -2.8 2.5 7.8 3.1 -0.3 1.3 0.7 -2.0

South Africa 0.5 7.2 1.6 -6.1 -3.9 -8.9 0.8 8.4 -4.2 -3.9 2.6 2.0 -3.9

Nigeria 0.3 109.6 1.2 2.0 2.3 0.7 1.4 6.1 9.2 0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0

Memo:

OECD 73.8 .. 1.1 0.6 6.9 5.2 6.4 10.3 12.2 4.0 0.5 -1.0 -0.5

Developing excl. China 19.6 112.3 2.1 1.5 5.0 4.8 5.6 7.4 7.7 1.3 0.7 -0.5 -0.3

Developing oil exporters 2.7 147.7 -5.8 1.9 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2

Developing non-oil exporters 19.5 105.9 3.1 1.6 5.6 5.3 6.4 8.2 8.8 1.4 0.9 -0.4 -0.2

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Exchange Rates (USD/LCU)(annual percent change except monthly data which is change over previous month a/)

a/ An increase in the USD per LCU implies appreciation of the local currency. The aggregates computed by using trade weights and rebased to year 2000=100 (bilateral total trade i.e. imports plus exports in 1995 constant USD).Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by weight) of countries reported data in that time period.b/ Average levels are LCU vis-a-vis the USD




World 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 ..

High-income countries 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 4.0

Industrial countries 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.0 4.0

United States 2.9 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 4.2

Japan 0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 ..

Euro Area 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.7

United Kindgom 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 3.0 ..

Other high income .. 2.2 1.5 1.6 2.2 1.2 2.4 4.3 .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 5.8 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.0 1.3 1.6 3.5 4.6 6.3 4.1 5.4 ..

Singapore 7.6 2.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 1.0 2.7 4.1 6.6 6.5 6.7 7.5 ..

Taiwan (China) 4.7 1.8 2.3 0.6 1.8 0.3 1.5 4.5 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7

Developing countries 6.9 6.1 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.2 7.1 8.0 8.4 8.3 8.5 ..

East Asia and Pacific 5.9 5.1 7.2 5.1 5.1 4.9 6.0 4.9 6.0 6.9 6.5 8.3 8.7

China 13.4 4.8 1.8 1.5 4.8 3.6 6.1 6.6 8.0 8.7 8.3 8.5 7.7

Indonesia 8.8 6.4 10.5 13.1 6.4 6.0 6.5 6.7 7.6 7.4 8.2 9.0 10.4

Thailand 4.4 2.2 4.5 4.6 2.2 1.9 1.6 2.9 5.0 5.4 5.3 6.2 7.6

Malaysia 3.3 2.0 3.0 3.6 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 ..

Europe and Central Asia 7.7 8.0 4.4 5.6 8.0 4.8 7.1 8.2 9.7 10.7 10.0 11.4 ..

Russian Federation 13.8 9.0 12.7 9.7 9.0 7.9 8.9 11.4 12.9 12.7 13.3 14.3 ..

Turkey 8.2 8.8 8.2 9.6 8.8 9.5 7.1 8.2 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.7 10.7

Poland 4.0 2.4 2.1 1.1 2.4 2.4 2.0 3.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.5

Czech Republic 7.8 2.9 1.8 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.6 4.9 7.4 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.8

Latin America and Caribbean 7.1 6.7 5.4 5.6 6.7 6.2 6.0 8.1 6.1 8.4 5.9 5.7 6.4

Brazil 4.8 3.6 6.9 4.2 3.6 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.6

Mexico 4.3 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.9

Argentina 8.2 8.8 9.6 10.9 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.4 8.8 8.9 9.1

Colombia 5.0 5.5 5.0 4.3 5.5 6.2 5.3 5.4 6.1 6.3 5.9 5.7 6.4

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 2.8 5.4 .. 3.4 5.2 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. 4.2 0.5 2.2 4.2 3.0 4.6 5.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran .. .. 13.4 11.9 .. 16.5 17.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 13.8 9.5 4.8 7.6 9.5 10.1 8.4 7.1 12.3 12.1 14.4 16.4 19.7

Algeria .. 0.1 1.6 2.5 3.5 2.0 5.2 4.1 .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 8.9 8.4 7.0 7.6 8.4 7.1 7.1 9.9 12.4 11.3 14.1 17.2 ..

India 6.6 6.4 4.2 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.7 5.5 6.3 5.5 7.9 7.8 ..

Pakistan 12.6 7.6 9.1 7.9 7.6 7.1 7.1 8.9 12.4 11.3 14.1 17.2 19.3

Bangladesh .. 9.1 7.0 6.8 9.1 8.5 9.9 10.9 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka 25.3 15.8 11.0 10.0 15.8 13.7 16.0 18.8 22.1 21.5 23.8 25.0 26.2

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 6.0 7.5 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.7 6.8 .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 9.0 7.1 3.4 4.6 7.1 7.0 7.0 8.4 9.9 9.8 10.6 11.1 ..

Nigeria .. 5.4 17.9 8.2 5.4 5.1 4.4 5.4 .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1 4.1


Developing oil exporters .. 5.9 11.9 10.1 5.9 5.6 6.5 6.1 .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 6.8 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.1 7.2 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.0


Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ Developing country aggregates computed using median. Industrial aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights. World total is GDP weighted average of developing and high income total. Aggregates are reported when at least 60% (by GDP) of countries reported data in that time period.

For developing countries, aggregate decadal growth rates are median of the decadal growth rates of the components. For high-income countries, aggregate decadal growth rate is GDP weighted sum of decadal growth rates of components.


Weights 2007 2008 2008 2008 Latest1995 2005 2006 2007 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr May 18-Jun

World 100.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High-income countriesb 82.8 2.49 3.57 3.86 3.97 3.94 3.62 2.87 2.56 2.37 2.20 2.19

Industrial countries 80.6 2.49 3.58 3.87 3.99 3.95 3.64 2.88 2.57 2.36 2.19 2.20

United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 3.21 4.96 5.02 5.25 5.09 4.48 3.16 2.60 2.27 1.99 2.06

Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.10 0.24 0.70 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 2.02 2.76 3.84 3.80 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

United Kindgom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 4.65 4.64 5.51 5.39 5.74 5.68 5.35 5.25 5.08 5.00 5.00

Other high income 2.2 2.47 3.31 3.43 3.54 3.46 3.27 2.64 2.45 2.45 2.38 ..

Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 4.73 6.50 6.52 6.75 6.58 6.00 4.25 3.75 3.75 3.50 ..

Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 2.14 3.40 2.68 2.55 2.55 2.33 1.47 1.22 1.10 1.15 1.13

Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.30 1.56 1.96 2.08 2.01 2.04 2.08 2.08 2.11 2.10 2.11

Developing countries 17.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.58 5.86 6.71 6.47 6.90 7.31 7.47 7.47 7.47 7.47 7.47

Indonesia (SBI 90 day rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18

Thailand (14day Repo Rate - BOT) 0.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 2.74 3.39 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 12.98 11.64 10.27 10.43 10.00 10.00 10.16 10.25 10.26 10.50 10.75

Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 16.31 16.76 18.29 18.61 18.48 17.39 16.32 16.17 16.20 16.51 17.28

Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.30 4.09 4.48 4.26 4.67 4.95 5.40 5.67 5.91 5.94 5.96

Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 1.96 2.17 2.86 2.58 3.01 3.34 3.65 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 19.13 15.33 12.05 12.42 11.53 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.50 11.75 12.25

Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 9.32 7.30 7.36 7.32 7.36 7.55 7.52 7.47 7.54 7.59 7.79

Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 3.66 6.45 8.09 7.02 8.39 9.75 8.41 8.07 8.08 10.01 14.22

Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 7.08 6.27 7.94 7.59 8.52 8.70 9.24 9.55 9.74 9.59 9.80

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia (IMF discount rate) 0.4 3.75 5.02 4.79 4.93 4.90 4.36 .. .. .. .. ..

Iran (IMF discount rate) 0.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. ..

India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 5.75 5.97 7.04 6.66 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 6.82 8.58 9.09 8.91 9.08 9.52 9.53 9.68 9.56 9.92 11.38

Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 8.09 9.14 10.43 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. ..

South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 7.14 7.63 9.61 9.13 9.75 10.57 11.00 11.00 11.32 11.50 12.00

Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 13.17 13.25 9.13 9.33 8.00 9.17 9.50 9.50 10.00 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 83.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 14.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 15.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).b/ High-income aggregates use 1995 USD GDP weights.


Weights Average 2007 2008 2008 Latest


World .. 89 91 106 124 126 130 127 115 115 121 122 117

High-income countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States .. 88 90 100 112 114 115 111 100 100 105 107 104

Japan .. 84 84 107 109 116 106 96 79 79 89 92 92

Euro Area .. 96 99 121 148 151 152 153 137 137 142 142 134

United Kindgom .. 88 85 98 106 109 107 106 94 94 100 99 96

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) .. .. 110 127 152 145 162 167 142 142 152 150 143

Singapore .. 102 104 121 171 179 185 176 171 .. .. .. ..

Taiwan (China) .. 74 71 80 94 98 102 93 100 100 104 101 96

Developing countriesa,b .. 136 153 203 275 268 307 323 282 282 301 300 281

East Asia and Pacificc .. 112 111 146 219 212 255 261 216 216 231 220 200

China .. 104 76 109 240 215 308 316 238 238 261 243 209

Indonesia .. 168 188 268 397 377 423 500 462 462 432 457 443

Thailand .. 166 206 231 282 279 307 316 325 325 328 320 290

Malaysia .. 108 107 120 183 186 187 206 182 182 190 184 175

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 237 398 495 479 519 583 508 508 520 578 556

Russian Federation .. 412 457 878 1046 990 1074 1256 1116 1116 1139 1310 1266

Turkey .. 82 96 119 166 156 191 206 130 130 150 145 139

Poland .. 146 166 228 319 338 329 328 313 313 306 309 287

Czech Republic .. 267 361 484 674 644 734 835 853 853 825 899 919

Latin America and Caribbean .. 163 181 263 394 398 436 458 447 447 486 528 504

Brazil .. 153 165 254 398 387 460 506 474 474 544 604 576

Mexico .. 163 182 260 360 387 370 361 376 376 369 393 368

Argentina .. 95 105 150 190 193 198 185 189 189 192 216 213

Colombia .. 282 395 589 685 705 689 736 685 685 778 807 819

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 253 332 366 353 377 429 387 387 408 423 413

Saudi Arabia .. .. 503 527 339 292 327 461 389 389 435 392 404

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt .. 165 248 328 412 395 438 532 573 573 599 562 539

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India .. 164 181 266 411 381 458 576 413 413 457 413 390

Pakistan .. 211 272 370 452 496 469 487 528 528 511 379 390

Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sri Lanka .. 206 280 312 358 352 327 342 330 330 333 323 312

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa .. 188 234 307 378 370 385 392 326 326 362 367 332

Nigeria .. 313 317 450 807 834 842 1030 1096 1096 1029 1024 957

Memo:

OECD .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..


Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Excahnge Composite Index;All Others are IFC/S&P Indices


GDP Gross domestic Product Current Account Balance

2007 2008 2009 2008 2009

Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD Cons. EIU OECD

World 3.6 2.8 2.5 1.7 3.0 2.6 1.5 47 -478 .. 47 .. ..

High-income countries 2.5 1.7 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.4 -367 -478 .. -262 .. ..

Industrial countries 2.4 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.4 -459 -478 .. -360 .. ..

United States 2.2 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.1 1.1 -706 -701 -717 -650 -671 -648

Japan 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 229 205 217 248 205 224

Euro Area 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.4 -8 10 8 -8 0 5

United Kindgom 3.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 -111 -113 -92 -99 -106 -90

Other high income 5.8 4.3 4.3 .. 4.6 4.4 .. 92 .. .. 98 .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 6.0 4.7 4.6 .. 5.0 4.5 .. 22 .. .. 24 .. ..

Singapore 8.0 5.1 4.5 .. 5.6 5.0 .. 41 .. .. 43 .. ..

Taiwan (China) 5.3 4.1 4.3 .. 4.5 4.4 .. 27 .. .. 28 .. ..

Developing countries 7.5 6.7 6.6 .. 6.4 6.2 .. 414.0 0.5 .. 309.4 0.0 ..

East Asia and Pacific 10.2 9.0 8.9 .. 8.5 8.3 .. 397.5 0.5 .. 399.0 0.0 ..

China 11.4 10.0 9.8 .. 9.3 9.0 .. 347.6 0.4 390.2 351.4 0.4 435.8

Indonesia 6.2 5.9 5.7 .. 5.9 5.9 .. 9.7 .. .. 9.8 .. ..

Thailand 4.4 4.7 4.8 .. 5.0 4.6 .. 7.1 .. .. 3.7 .. ..

Malaysia 6.0 5.5 5.8 .. 5.7 5.8 .. 28.1 .. .. 28.9 .. ....

Europe and Central Asia 6.2 5.6 5.3 .. 5.5 5.2 .. -66.4 -0.1 .. -114.7 0.0 ..

Russian Federation 7.5 7.3 7.2 .. 6.7 6.4 .. 80.8 0.1 .. 43.6 0.1 ..

Turkey 4.5 4.0 3.2 3.7 4.8 4.1 4.5 -44.5 .. -42.5 -45.9 .. -46.1

Poland 6.5 5.3 5.1 5.9 4.9 4.3 5.0 -23.7 .. -26.3 -27.0 .. -37.6

Czech Republic 6.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 5.0 5.4 4.8 -6.7 .. -6.4 -6.9 .. -4.8

Latin America and Caribbean 5.4 4.6 4.4 .. 4.0 3.8 .. -12.9 .. .. -41.8 .. ..

Brazil 5.2 4.8 4.6 .. 4.2 3.8 .. -21.7 .. .. -29.8 .. ..

Mexico 3.1 2.6 2.3 2.8 3.1 2.5 3.3 -11.3 .. -10.3 -18.0 .. -21.4

Argentina 8.3 6.8 6.3 .. 4.5 4.5 .. 7.1 .. .. 4.3 .. ..

Colombia 6.6 5.3 5.0 .. 4.9 4.5 .. -7.2 .. .. -7.5 .. ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 4.9 5.0 6.0 .. 4.7 5.6 .. 124.0 0.2 .. 97.6 0.1 ..

Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Egypt 7.3 6.9 6.9 .. 5.8 6.8 .. -1.1 .. .. -1.9 .. ..

Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 8.1 7.4 7.1 .. 7.7 6.8 .. -32.6 .. .. -36.0 .. ..

India 8.6 7.7 7.6 .. 8.1 7.1 .. -22.5 .. .. -25.5 .. ..

Pakistan 6.2 5.9 4.6 .. 5.8 5.1 .. -10.2 .. .. -10.4 .. ..

Bangladesh 6.2 5.9 5.7 .. 6.0 6.0 .. 0.1 .. .. -0.1 .. ..

Sri Lanka 6.8 .. 4.1 .. .. 4.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 4.8 4.1 3.9 .. 4.6 4.4 .. -20.9 .. .. -21.1 .. ..

Nigeria 5.6 7.4 7.0 .. 6.8 6.6 .. 26.5 .. .. 28.3 .. ..

Memo:

OECD 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.5 -555 -479 .. -468 .. ..

Developing excl. China 6.1 5.4 5.3 .. 5.2 5.0 .. 66.3 0.1 .. -42.0 .. ..

Developing oil exporters 6.1 5.7 6.0 .. 5.0 5.6 .. 181.3 0.2 .. 149.2 .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 7.7 6.8 6.6 .. 6.6 6.2 .. 232.6 0.3 .. 160.2 .. ..


Table A.12 GDP and current account forecasts(annual percent change; billions of US dollars)

Sources: Consensus Economics Ltd.; The Economist Intelligence Unit and OECD.Regional Aggregates:Latin America and Carribean: ARG,BOL,BRA,CHL,COL,CRI,DOM,ECU,MEX,PAN,PER,PRY,URY,VENEurope and Central Asia: BGR,CZE,EST,HRV,HUN,KAZ,POL,ROM,RUS,SVK,TUR,UKREast Asia and Pacific: CHN, IDN,MYS,PHL,THAMiddle-East and North Africa: DZA,EGY,IRN,IRQ,JOR,LBN,MAR,OMN,SAU,SYR,TUN,YEMSouth Asia: BGD,IND,PAKSub-Saharan Africa: AGO,BWA,CIV,CMR,GAB,GHA,KEN,MUS,MWI,NAM,NGA,SDN,TZA,UGA,ZAF,ZMB,ZWEOther Aggregates:OECD:AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,CZE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,HUN,IRL,ISL,ITA,JPN,KOR,MEX,NLD,NOR,POL,PRT,SVK,SWE,TUR,USAIndustrial Countries: AUS,AUT,CAN,CHE,DEU,DNK,ESP,FIN,FRA,GBR,GRC,ITA,JPN,KOR,NLD,NOR,PRT,SWE,USAOther High Income: HKG,ISR,SGP,SVNDeveloping Oil Exporters: IDN,NGA,SAU,VEN

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