The Federal Life Sciences Budget: Update and Outlook

Matt HourihanMarch 25, 2015for the San Antonio Life Sciences Institute Academy Innovation Forum

AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Federal Industry Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Research as a Share of GDP by Funder

Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other

Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Federal Research Funding by Disciplineas a Share of GDP, 1978-2014

Life Sci

Physical Sci

Engineering

Environ Sci

Math / Comp

Social Sciences

Source: National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research and Development series. FY 2013 and 2014 are preliminary. GDP figures are from OMB. © 2015 AAAS

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

0.45%

University R&D as a Share of GDP by Source

Total Federal State and Local Industry Institution funds All other

Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series, and GDP data from OMB. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

University R&D Funding by Source

Other Sources Institutional Funds Industry State and Local Federal

Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2015 AAAS

-40.3%

-20.5%

-14.2%

-10.6%

-9.7%

-7.3%

19.1%

51.3%

52.7%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Transportation

Defense Activities

Agriculture

Health (NIH)

Environment Agencies

NASA Budget*

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Commerce (NIST)

Applied Energy Programs

R&D Change by Budget Function, 2005-2015Percent change from FY 2005 in constant dollars

*NASA has changed its R&D reporting and classifications multiple times over the years. Total agency budget is shown here rather than R&D.Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other budget documents. Select DHS programs changed functions over the years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability. © 2015 AAAS

Defense Discretionary

$528 [Defense R&D]$77

Nondefense Discretionary

$495

[Nondefense R&D]$69

Social Security$938

Medicare$583

Medicaid$351

Other Mandatory$670

Net Interest$283

Composition of the Proposed FY 2016 BudgetTotal Outlays = $4.0 trillion

outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2016. Projected deficit is $474 billion. © 2015 AAAS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Composition of the Federal BudgetOutlays as share of total budget, 1962 - 2016

Payments toIndividuals

All Other

Defense (non-R&D)

Investments(research, edu,infrastructure)

Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. "Investments" include outlays for R&D, education and training, direct nondefense infrastructure, and other grants, primarily for transportation. "Payments to Individuals" are primarily entitlement programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, but also include many other public assistance programs. © 2015 AAAS

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

$900

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline

BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law

President's FY 2016 Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

6.4%

-35.5%0.9%

2.2%

5.0%

8.1%

12.6%

17.8%

20.5%

23.3%

44.8%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

TOTAL

Justice (DHS)

Space

Health (includes NIH)

General Science (NSF, DOE SC)

Defense Activities

Environment Agencies

Transportation

Agriculture

Applied Energy Programs

Commerce (includes NIST)

FY16 R&D in the Base Budget by Functionpercent change from FY 2015, nominal dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and agency budget documents. © 2015 AAAS

DOD, $71.9

HHS (NIH), $31.0

DOE, $12.5

NASA, $12.2

NSF, $6.3

USDA, $2.9

Commerce, $2.1All Other, $6.2

Total R&D by Agency, FY 2016budget authority in billions of dollars

Source: OMB R&D data, agency budget justifications, and other agency documents and data. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2015 AAAS

Total R&D = $145.3 billion

Major Funding Priorities for FY16 Advanced Manufacturing Low-carbon energy Climate research and earth observation Agricultural R&D Infrastructure R&D Antibiotic Resistance* Precision Medicine* Discovery Science:

Neuroscience; advanced computing

COMPETES Agencies R&D: $12.1 billion, +6.6%

*New for FY16

National Institutes of Health $1 billion increase (+3.3%) Largest relative increases:

Alzheimer’s research, translational science

New initiatives: Antibiotic Resistance: $100

million for NIAID $200 million for Precision

Medicine

Large increase for Big Data BRAIN Initiative contribution

increases to $135 million Success rate: 19.3%

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)

ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other

Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

National Institutes of Health Obligations, 2003-2014Percent change since FY03, adjusted for BRDPI

Source: Historical obligations data and BRDPI deflators from the NIH budget office. © 2015 AAAS

NIH Total

Most individual ICs fall within this band

NIAID

National Science Foundation Total Budget: +5.2%

Highest relative changes: SBE: +7.1%; Engineering: +6.4%

EHR: +11.2%

New priority areas: Food-water-energy; climate resilience; several cross-agency initiatives boosted

BIO: +2.3% Most of the increase in

Division of Emerging Frontiers

BioMaPS: +12.1% Neuroscience + BRAIN Initiative

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

CISE ENG GEO BIO SBE MPS

AverageRequest SinceFY10*

FY 2016Request

Past and Current NSF Budgets by DirectorateNominal percentage increase

*Excludes FY12 and FY14, years for which the request was formulated before appropriations were finalized. Source: AAAS analysis of past and current NSF budget data. © 2015 AAAS

Defense, Veterans and Energy

Defense Dept: 8.3% cut to basic research; mixed bag for medical programs

Veterans: 3.2% increase in medical & prosthetics research resources

DOE BER: Biological sciences programs trimmed (-1.9%) Focus is on climate research

instead

$0

$2

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$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

Trends in DOD Science & Technologyin billions of constant FY 2015 dollars

ARRA Medical researchAdv Tech (6.3) Applied (6.2)Basic (6.1)

Source: DOD R-1 and historical data. Medical Research is appropriated outside RDT&E title. © 2015 AAAS

Looking Ahead Budget resolutions out…ultimate spending levels still TBD

Efforts to get around the caps… American Cures Act and American Innovation Act (Durbin)

Would fund several science agencies at 5% above inflation, in excess of sequester levels

Accelerating Biomedical Research Act (DeLauro, Mikulski) NIH spending cap exemption

Medical Innovation Act (Warren) Would require large drug companies that settle with the government for

wrongdoing to pay a small portion of their annual profits for five years for NIH and FDA; the “swear jar” approach

War funding? Reserve funds?

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester BaselineActual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)President's FY 2016 Budget House BudgetSenate Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. Excludes war funding proposals.© AAAS 2015

$470

$490

$510

$530

$550

$570

$590

$610

Limits on Defense Spending Base billions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester BaselineActual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)President's FY 2016 Budget House BudgetSenate Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from FY16 request. Does not include war funding. © AAAS 2015

$400

$420

$440

$460

$480

$500

$520

$540

$560

$580

$600

Limits on Nondefense Spending Basebillions of constant 2015 dollars

BCA: Original Baseline BCA: Sequester BaselineActual Base Budget Authority Current Law (Sequester Levels)President's FY 2016 Budget House BudgetSenate Budget

Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015

Looking Ahead: Appropriations Labor, HHS, Education subcommittee (governs NIH)

House: Cole; DeLauro Senate: Blunt; Murray

Commerce, Justice, Science (NSF) House: Culberson; Fattah Senate: Shelby; Mikulski

Energy & Water House: Simpson; Kaptur Senate: Alexander; Feinstein

Defense House: Frelinguysen; Visclosky Senate: Cochran; Durbin

3. agency notes R&D STEM

For more info…

mhouriha@aaas.org

202-326-6607

http://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program