the federal r&d budget: overview and outlook
DESCRIPTION
The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook. Matt Hourihan February 5, 2014 for the Society of Research Administrators International AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd. *Keep in mind…. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Federal R&D Budget: Overview and Outlook
Matt HourihanFebruary 5, 2014for the Society of Research Administrators International
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
DefenseDiscretionary
NondefenseDiscretionary
Mandatory
Net Interest
Federal Spending as a Percent of GDP, 1962 - 2018
Source: Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2014.© 2013 AAAS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2014
R&D as a Shareof the FederalBudget (LeftScale)
R&D as a Shareof GDP (RightScale)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2014. FY 2013 data do not reflect sequestration. FY 2014 is the President's request.© 2013 AAAS
*Keep in mind… Department of Defense development activities have
declined more than everything else
-16.0%
-13.4%
-14.8%
8.5%
-20.3%
-20.9%
18.9%
18.3%
-30% -10% 10% 30%
Defense Activities
Health (NIH)
Space*
General Science (NSF, DOE SC)
Agriculture
Environment Agencies
Commerce (NIST)
Applied Energy Programs
R&D Change by Budget Function, 2004-2013Percent change from FY 2004 in constant dollars, post-sequestration
* To avoid comparability challenges, "Space" refers to total NASA budget authority rather than R&D spending. It does not include Aeronautics, which is in the "Transportation" function, not shown.Source: AAAS analysis of historical data and current R&D data, agency budget justifications and other budget documents. Select DHS programs were categorized in Defense and General Science in prior years; the above data have been adjusted for comparability.© 2013 AAAS
Recent R&D Budget History R&D down by 8.4 percent between FY10 and FY12
August 2011: Budget Control Act AAAS estimated ~$50 billion R&D cuts in first 5
years
January 2013: American Taxpayer Relief Act
FY 2013: Sequester cuts nearly $10 billion more
Summer 2013: Appropriators operate under two different spending baselines
December 2013 budget deal: 50% sequester rollback for FY14
Department of Defense
DOD R&D cut, but not to S&T programs Basic research at all-time high Nanotechnology, materials
science DARPA: small from FY12 Medical research BIG increase
NIH Continuing stagnation
Most institutes about halfway between sequester and FY12
Largest increases: National Institute on Aging, NCATS Translational medicine,
Alzheimer’s research, BRAIN Initiative, National Children’s Study
Success rates down to 16.8 percent in FY13
Department of Energy Generally good news Science: much closer to Senate
mark Advanced Computing and
Fusion (especially domestic research)
Energy Frontier Research Centers at $100 million
Clean energy programs (EERE, ARPA-E) avoid the guillotine
NNSA R&D also picked up significant funding
DOE R&D at all-time high
NASA Positive outcomes for Science,
Exploration Planetary Science avoids
deeper cuts; Europa Mission? Largest increase for Webb
Telescope Skepticism toward asteroid
mission Clear commitment to next-
generation flights systems, also commercial spaceflight
Aeronautics, Space Tech flat
National Science Foundation Lower number than other
agencies, about even with FY12 Appropriator support for ocean
research, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing R&D, neuroscience
Social Sciences research restrictions lifted
Large Synoptic Survey Telescope to commence construction
Likely to fall short of COMPETES Act doubling target
USDA Another good outcome Intramural R&D: Request
matched Minus poultry research center
Extramural R&D: closer to Dems than GOP Big boost for AFRI
Forest Service dodges cuts Farm Bill establishes ag
research foundation
Other notes Environmental agencies (EPA, USGS) come up short
DHS got (mostly) what it wanted
NIST not looking bad
Patient outcomes research (via Obamacare) not funded
TOTAL
GDP
Looking ahead… President’s budget to be released March 4, for now
Priorities: manufacturing, clean energy, climate, IT and computing, biological innovation, neuroscience, STEM Ed
Discretionary spending limit in FY 2015 has already been agreed And will increase hardly at all 25% of sequester reductions rolled back
Big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged
Beyond FY 2015: back to sequester levels
Current Politics: The “Pong” Model?
Cut spending!
Raise revenues!
The science and innovation budget
Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…!