The First Year SFMR Surface Wind Observations from The First Year SFMR Surface Wind Observations from AFRC WC-130J Aircraft: Impact on Operational AFRC WC-130J Aircraft: Impact on Operational

Hurricane Forecasts and WarningsHurricane Forecasts and Warnings

Peter G. Black (1), Jonathan Talbot (2), Ivan Popstefanija (3), Eric Uhlhorn (4), James Franklin (5)

(1) Naval Research Laboratory and SAIC, Inc., Monterey, CA(2) AFRC, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS

(3) ProSensing, Inc., Amherst, MA(4) NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division, Miami, FL

(5) NOAA/NWS/NCEP National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

Interdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceInterdepartmental Hurricane ConferenceCharleston, South CarolinaCharleston, South Carolina3-7 March, 20083-7 March, 2008

2007 SFMR Advisory Statistics2007 SFMR Advisory Statistics

Atlantic TC’sAtlantic TC’s•Number: 16Number: 16•Depressions Only: 2Depressions Only: 2•Sub-Tropical Cyclones: 1Sub-Tropical Cyclones: 1•Tropical Storms: 8Tropical Storms: 8•Hurricanes: 6Hurricanes: 6•Major Hurricanes: 2 (both CAT5)Major Hurricanes: 2 (both CAT5)

Satellite-based Advisories: 214Satellite-based Advisories: 214Aircraft-based Advisors: 56Aircraft-based Advisors: 56SFMR-based advisories: 25SFMR-based advisories: 25

•NOAA: 3NOAA: 3•AFRC: 22AFRC: 22

2007

TA Doppler True Vmax vs. along-track Vmax

UNDER SAMPLING ISSUE

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

o A 9-year SFMR data set from 1998-2006, where SFMR mainly not A 9-year SFMR data set from 1998-2006, where SFMR mainly not assimilated in real time, shows that Best Track estimates of maximum wind assimilated in real time, shows that Best Track estimates of maximum wind over-estimated SFMR maximum wind estimates by 10-17%.over-estimated SFMR maximum wind estimates by 10-17%.

o However, in 2007 when SFMR assimilated in real time, half the points are However, in 2007 when SFMR assimilated in real time, half the points are overestimates and half are underestimates, suggesting on average that overestimates and half are underestimates, suggesting on average that Best Track and SFMR estimates are now aligned with each other.Best Track and SFMR estimates are now aligned with each other.

o With 3-5 AFRC aircraft flying in 2007, 31 inter-comparison cases were With 3-5 AFRC aircraft flying in 2007, 31 inter-comparison cases were amassed, plus 3 from NOAA aircraft, whereas 9 years were required for 54 amassed, plus 3 from NOAA aircraft, whereas 9 years were required for 54 comparison cases in developmental data set. In 2008, all 10 AFRC WC-130J comparison cases in developmental data set. In 2008, all 10 AFRC WC-130J aircraft will be flying SFMRs in addition to the two NOAA P3s as well as the aircraft will be flying SFMRs in addition to the two NOAA P3s as well as the NOAA G-IV.NOAA G-IV.

o We are at a historic turning point in history for improving hurricane We are at a historic turning point in history for improving hurricane intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the intensity observation and forecasting where the capability to observe the TC surface wind domain matches the improved coupled model capabilities TC surface wind domain matches the improved coupled model capabilities to assimilate and model it. This alignment should provide the next best to assimilate and model it. This alignment should provide the next best opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.opportunity for improving hurricane intensity and structure forecasting.