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The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Special Advisor Ministry of Economic Trade and Industry (METI), Gov. of Japan OECD NAEC

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Page 1: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty

Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet Office, Government of Japan Special Advisor – Ministry of Economic Trade and Industry (METI), Gov. of Japan

OECD NAEC

Page 2: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

1991

Programming

Protocol Standard

Policy

(25+ years!)

Page 3: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet
Page 4: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Investor

Board Member

Teacher

Advisor

TV Commentator

Entrepreneur

Who am I?

Page 5: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Cyber3 International Cybersecurity Conference

内閣府 Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

www.npr-event.jp/cyber3/

Page 6: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

World Economic Forum (WEF) - Davos

Fourth Industrial Revolution

Page 7: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

3 M’s

World is changing increasing faster…

Market

Mother Nature

Moore’s Law

…at the same time!

Page 8: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Market

Page 9: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Data = New Oil

Page 10: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Data = “New Oil”

1Q2017

Net Revenue = $25B

Page 11: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Mother Nature

Page 12: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Moore’s Law

Page 13: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

ICT IoT

ICT =

Information

Communication

Technology

Transistor

Communication

Storage

Sensors

$

Internet

Cybersecurity

Troubles

Page 14: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

ICT IoT

ICT =

Information

Communication

Technology

Transistor

Communication

Storage

Sensors

Combining to create

Platforms

< IoT

Page 15: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Moore’s Law - Exponential Growth

exp (n) log (n)

Page 16: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Exponential Growth

In the last 20 years…!

1,000x ↓

1,000,000x ↓

1,000,000,000x ↓

Page 17: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

10% → 10X Growth

Page 18: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Being Human…

Page 19: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

… Being Human

Communication Teamwork

Network

Page 20: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Networked Businesses - World’s largest….

Media company

Movie company

Taxi company

Hotel

Retailer

Page 21: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Networked Businesses - World’s Largest… (cont.)

taxi firm Uber owns no cars

media firm Facebook creates no content

TV company Youtube creates no content

retailer Alibaba carries no stock

accomodation provider Airbnb owns no property

information provider Google creates no content

phone company Skype/WeChat owns no telco infrastructure

bank SocietyOne owns no money

software vendor Google doesn't write the applications

venture capital Kickstarter isn't the investor

photo company Instagram sells no camera

movie company / tv network Netflix owns no cinema / lays no cable

retailer* Amazon

car company* Tesla

$52B market cap

1Q2017 = 25K cars (GM = 2.3M)

1.3B miles of data

$70B market cap

Biggest data pool on supply (driver)

and demand (passenger)

Trust :

1 Minute = 400 hours of

video uploaded

Page 22: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

IoT?

Internet of Things

-or-

Internet of Threats

-or-

Insecurity of Things

Internet of Secure Things

IoST

Page 23: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Cybersecurity

Page 24: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Business = Security

Academic tool Business tool

Internet + Security = Business!

Security is the fundamental enabling technology of the Internet

1969 ARPANET

1983 TCP/IP

1992 Commercial use

1993 Mosaic/WWW

1995 Secure Socket Layer (SSL)

2000 RSA

Page 25: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

ABC’s of Security

Atomic

Biological

Chemical

Digital 0101

101010

0101

Page 26: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

ABC vs. “D”

Not constrained by Physics

Speed of Light…

… From Anywhere

Simultaneously

Page 27: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

“D” to Nation State vs. Sovereignty

“Cold War” “Code War”

Non-State Actors

Attribution

Asymmetric

Page 28: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

The Threat Actors

National Interest

Personal Gain

Personal Fame

Curiosity

Ru

ns S

cri

pts

Ba

sic

P

rog

ram

min

g

& N

etw

ork

ing

Sys

tem

Le

vel

Pro

gra

mm

ing

&

Ne

two

rkin

g

Sp

ecia

lize

d

Sk

ills

&

Kn

ow

led

ge

Vandal

Trespasser

Thief

Professionals / Spy

Author

Page 29: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Welcome to the Dungeon ©

1986 Brain & Amjads (pvt).

BRAIN COMPUTER SERVICES 730

NIZAM BLOCK ALLAMA IQBAL

TOWN LAHORE-PAKISTAN PHONE:

430791,443248,280530. Beware

of this VIRUS.... Contact us

for vaccination...

Risk: Logical Physical

Damage Disruption Destruction Death

Logical Physical (Kinetic)

Brain - 1st PC virus

January 1986

Idaho National Laboratory Demo

March 2007

Page 30: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Security is Complicated

Authentication

Confidentiality

Privacy

Integrity

Authorization

Accountability

Non Repudiation

Availability

Page 31: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Security is Complicated

Authentication

Confidentiality

Privacy

Integrity

Authorization

Accountability

Non Repudiation

Availability

O B

Page 32: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

New Paradigm = “Security by Design”

Makes things better

Increases efficiency

Increases ease of use

Reduce costs & lowers TCO

Enhances system robustness

Increases functionality & resilience

Security

Usability Cost

Cybersecurity is NOT a technical issue.

It is a management and leadership issue.

Cyber Risk

Page 33: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

National Diet Fukushima Nuclear Accident Investigation Commission

3.11

Page 34: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Accident Findings – All the same

People make mistakes

Machines break

Accidents happen

No 100%

Failure is normal

Page 35: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

Resilience

re·sil·ience noun /ri-ˈzil-yən(t)s/

an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change

12/31/99

1/1/00

Page 36: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

The Fourth Industrial Revolution – 6 D’s

Digitized

Deceptive growth

Disruptive

Dematerialized

Demonetized

Democratized

Page 37: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

New Networked World

5,000+ sensors

10 GB/s per engine

2.04 Tbps for Boeing 737MAX (Formula 1 car = 12.28Gbps)

Page 38: The Fourth Industrial Revolution - OECD · The Fourth Industrial Revolution Rewriting the rules of business, leadership and sovereignty Dr. William H. Saito Special Advisor – Cabinet

@whsaito