the future delivery of housing steve normington director of economy
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The Future Delivery of Housing Steve Normington Director of Economy Confident Places Scrutiny Committee. National policy context. Nationally, housing delivery has dropped from the peak in 2007/08, continuing low levels. Affordability and access to the market continues to be problematic. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Future Delivery of Housing
Steve NormingtonDirector of Economy
Confident Places Scrutiny Committee
Confident Place, Confident People.
National policy context
• Nationally, housing delivery has dropped from the peak in 2007/08, continuing low levels.
• Affordability and access to the market continues to be problematic.
• New housing and planning policy – NPPF, New Homes Bonus aims to encourage greater delivery.
• Financial support – HelptoBuy, Affordable Homes Programme, Self financing of Housing Revenue Account
• Welfare reform – impact on social sector
Confident Place, Confident People.
Local policy context
• Wigan Core Strategy now adopted • Housing requirement of 15,000 to 2026• 25% affordable housing requirement• SHLAA 2013 update• Housing Strategy priorities
– Increasing housing delivery – Welfare reform – Private rented sector – Connecting housing with care
Confident Place, Confident People.
Wigan’s Market Context
• Average property price in Wigan is £132,700• Continued low levels of sales transactions• Prices below GM, NW and national average• Above average owner occupation rates (68%)• Significant growth in private rented sector, 148%
increase in period 2001-11• Above average proportion of semi-detached
(46%), very few flats/apartments (9%)• Low numbers of empty homes
Confident Place, Confident People.
Demographic trends
• Wigan’s population was 317,800 (Census 2011) - an increase of 16,300 (5.6%) from 2001
• 1 in 6 people are aged 65 or above• Average household size is reducing and average age
increasing• More people living alone • More people living longer with long term health
conditions• Forecasts for 2021:
– Population to grow by 6%– Population aged 65+ to grow by 24%– Household growth of 8%, 11,000 additional households
Confident Place, Confident People.
Population forecast to 2021
Confident Place, Confident People.
Affordable Housing NeedsBedroom Requirement
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1 2 3 4 5 or more
No of bedrooms
Appl
ican
ts Transfer
Waiting list
• 3,300 on council waiting list, 1,600 requesting a transfer• 62% require one bedroom, 24% two and 10% three
Applicants by houshold type
13%
49%
24%
10%4%
single
couple
2 bed family
3 bed family
4+ family
Confident Place, Confident People.
Affordable housing needs
• Overall increase in need – estimated shortfall in delivery of 358 units per year
• Hidden need in the Private Rented Sector – 33% of applicants
• Smaller households – singles and couples 62% of applicants
• Ageing population – 24% aged 60 or over• Specialist accommodation • Need for a more diverse housing offer to
address these needs.
Confident Place, Confident People.
Affordable housing trajectory
• Planning to deliver 689 new affordable homes over 5 yrs • 90% committed as rental, need to increase delivery of
affordable home ownership• Focus on working with private developers to provide
access to the market – shared equity
New affordable housing delivery 2013 -17
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18
Year
Un
its Rent
Sale
Confident Place, Confident People.
Future affordability
• Forecast increase in house prices / rents • Forecast increase in wages • Economic performance• Living costs / inflation • Interest rates • Supply and type• Housing policy and investment• A number of scenarios could apply!
Confident Place, Confident People.
New housing delivery
• New build delivery has decreased from a peak in 2007/08
• Housebuilders generally building large detached houses
• Very few smaller homes, apartments and bungalows
• Lack of diversity in housing offer
• Large proportion of affordable homes (24% of new homes in 2012/13)
Confident Place, Confident People.
Net housing completions
Net completions
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Confident Place, Confident People.
Housing trajectory
• Delivery anticipated to increase as large schemes come forward, including Northleigh and the Broad Locations
Housing trajectory
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
2025
/26
Year of the Core Strategy plan period
Num
ber
of d
wel
lings
Estimated housing delivery
Core Strategy annual averagetarget 1,050 dwellings (gross)
Source: Wigan Core Strategy
Confident Place, Confident People.
Housing land supply• 5.19 year supply
(2013-18)
• 16.62 year supply (2013-28)
• Over 80% of land supply in the east-west core
• Source: SHLAA 2013 update
Confident Place, Confident People.
North Leigh
• Key Strategic Site
• Outline permission for mixed use development
• 1,800 homes
• New road infrastructure
Confident Place, Confident People.
South of Hindley
• Broad location for new development
• 2,000 homes
• New road infrastructure
• Links to Greenheart
• Outline planning application in 2014
Confident Place, Confident People.
Landgate, Bryn• Broad location for new
development
• Approx 300 homes
• New road infrastructure
• Links to Greenheart
• Outline planning application in 2014
Confident Place, Confident People.
East of Atherton
• Broad location for new development
• Approx 600 homes
• Proximity to Atherton Station, Cutacre and M61
Confident Place, Confident People.
Garrett Hall, Astley
• Broad location for new development
• Approx. 600 homes
• Outline permission (subject to s106)
• Proximity to Leigh Guided Busway and A580
Confident Place, Confident People.
Westwood Park, Wigan
• Pending Outline application
• 430 homes
• Associated retail and employment development
• Council ownership
• Strategic location
Confident Place, Confident People.
Standish
• 1,000 homes
• Early delivery
• Greenfield sites
Confident Place, Confident People.
Golborne and Lowton
• 1,000 homes
• Early delivery
• Greenfield sites
Confident Place, Confident People.
Wigan SHMA 2014
• SHMA 2014 in preparation
• Different policy and market context
• Analysis of demographic, economic and housing market signals
• Identify breakdown of house type, tenure and size needed
• Our ability to meet these needs through future supply
Thank you for your timeand attention.
Questions and Answers