the future of broadband daniel ballon pacific research institute broadband summit: connecting...
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The Future of Broadband
Daniel BallonPacific Research Institute
Broadband Summit: Connecting AmericaFCC-NARUC Joint Conference on Advanced Services
November 6, 2008
A Brief History of Broadband
Data provided by Link Hoewing/Verizon
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Access
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Innovation Drives Broadband Growth
Pew Internet, Home Broadband Adoption 2008
Innovation
DemandBroadbandInvestment
BroadbandAdoption
Investment is Limiting Factor Today
Innovation
DemandBroadbandInvestment
BroadbandAdoption
Innovation
DemandBroadbandInvestment
BroadbandAdoption
•Net neutrality debate is good news for broadband
•YouTube consumes more bandwidth today than the entire Internet in 2000
May 7, 1997: WWW = World Wide Wait
“The average Internet user in America spends 25 hours a year waiting for web sites to download.”─Former FCC Chairman William Kennard, February 8, 2000
“We confront a dynamic marketplace, characterized by rapid changes in technology, a new business alignment with every passing day, and lightening-speed changes in the flow of capital.” ─Former FCC Commissioner Susan Ness, January 20, 1999
Investment Today is Strong
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Cumulative Cable Infrastructure Investment (Billions)Total Investment in
Communications Equipment (Billions)
Jeffrey Eisenach, Broadband Policy: Does the U.S. Have it Right After All? Progress and Freedom Foundation
“We should conceptualize broadband capability as a function that can ride on many different electronic platforms. Broadband is not a copper wire. It is not a coaxial cable. It is not a wireless channel. It is all of these things. The capability can ride on many platforms (and should) in order to tailor solutions to consumer patterns and interests.” ─ Former FCC Chairman Michael Powell, October 25, 2001
“We should conceptualize broadband capability as a function that can ride on many different electronic platforms. Broadband is not a copper wire. It is not a coaxial cable. It is not a wireless channel. It is all of these things. The capability can ride on many platforms (and should) in order to tailor solutions to consumer patterns and interests.” ─ Former FCC Chairman Michael Powell, October 25, 2001
Thriving Broadband Competition
Fifth FCC Report on Advanced Telecommunications, June 12, 2008
NOTE: As of March 19, 2008, the minimum “broadband” connection speed was raised to 768 Kbps
•Only 0.1% of zip codes have no broadband providers•89% of zip codes have more than four broadband providers•23% of zip codes have more than ten broadband providers
Explosion in Bandwidth Appetite Cisco Global Internet Traffic Forecast
Informa Telecoms Mobile Forecast
New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 1) High Definition Video-on-Demand
Requirement = 10 Mbps
Customer base for streaming HD VoD will expand 7-fold in 5 years (~30% of all households)
New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 2) Internet TV
Source: iSuppli, May 2007
Source: Ipsos Insight, May 2008
New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 3) Video Conferencing
Three Waves of Internet Traffic Growth
Cisco, 2008 Cisco, 2008
CNET, Inc.
1964 2008
Bell Labs
New Innovations Will Drive Future Broadband Growth 4) Telemedicine 5) Virtual Worlds
6) Online Gaming 7) Cloud Computing
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Broadband Innovation: Cable & DOCSIS 3.0 Data Over Cable Service Interface Specifications (DOCSIS)
Cable360.netLegacyDOCSIS Modem
Cable ModemTerminationSystem (CMTS)
WidebandCableModem
LegacyDOCSIS Modem
Cable ModemTerminationSystem (CMTS)
WidebandCableModem
ARRIS Group
DOCSIS Progression
DOCSIS 1.0
DOCSIS 1.1
DOCSIS 2.0
DOCSIS 3.0
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Broadband Innovation: Cable & DOCSIS 3.0
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Cable Industry Infrastructure Expenditures
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Source: NCTA
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Cable Broadband Availability
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Cable Broadband Customers
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Broadband Innovation: FTTx
VerizonFiOS
AT&TU-Verse
BPONDownstream: 622 MbpsUpstream: 155 Mbps
GPONDownstream: 2.5 GbpsUpstream: 1.5 Gbps
Downstream: 25-37 MbpsUpstream: 6 Mbps
Broadband Innovation: FTTx
Verizon FiOS Customers (Million)
Verizon RVA Research
FTTH Penetration
AT&T U-verse FTTN
AT&T
Broadband Innovation: 4G Wireless Networks
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2G
2.5G
3G
4G
Evolution of Wireless Technologies
Data Transmission Speeds (Mbps)
50 Mbps-1 Gbps60 Kbps-54 Mbps
20 Kbps-171 Kbps
10 Kbps-40 Kbps1995
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2010
Orthogonal Frequency-Division Multiplexing
IEC
WiMAX Backers LTE Backers
Broadband Innovation: 4G Wireless Networks
Broadband Innovation: Satellite Internet?
The Kizuna Satellite
O3b Networks
Conclusions
•The future of broadband looks bright
•Abundant innovation in both content and delivery
•The U.S. is leading the way in many future technologies
•Multiple technologies in direct competition
•Important not to give unfair advantages through inconsistent regulation
•Important not to pick winners through subsidies