the future of coal hal quinn president & ceo national mining association annual state of the...
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of CoalHal QuinnPresident & CEONational Mining Association
Annual State of the Energy Industry United States Energy AssociationJanuary 18, 2012
Global Growth in Coal Consumption
Source: EIA’s Rising Asian demand drives global coal consumption growth
Asian Growth in Coal Consumption
Source: EIA’s Rising Asian demand drives global coal consumption growth
Page 4
Hyper-Urbanization
Half the population resides in urban
centers today—75% by 2050
Explosion in ‘world middle
class’
Rising middle class in
developing world is shifting
global consumption and supply
patterns
Technology
2 billion connected people and 1 trillion
connected objects=more energy
Global Megatrends
Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)
India Brazil China Russia U.S.0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Page 5
New Coal Generation 2011-2015 (GW)
China 250India
75
Other Asia 27
Eu-rope16
U.S. 8
ROW 16
• ~400 GW of new coal generation
• ~1.4 billion tons of new annual coal supply over next five years
Page 6
Global Metallurgical Coal Demand
Global Metallurgical Coal Demand
YearTons
(Millions)Growth
2010 920
2015 1,185 ~30%
2020 1,140 ~60%
• China, India and Brazil steel intensity in acceleration stage
• China largest steel producer internal met coal production not keeping pace with demand
• Brazil and India rely on imports for majority of met coal needs
Page 7
Page 8
Regulatory Accounting
Regulations Projected Impacts
Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
Utility MACT Rule
GHG Performance Standards
Coal Ash
Cooling Water Intake Structures
AnalystRetirement Projection (GW)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
81
EVA 51
NERA Economic Consulting
48
U.S. Energy Information Administration
45-73
North American Electric Reliability Corporation
33 -77
Environmental Protection Agency
14
