THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING

ERIC GARLAND

Forecasting has been, is, and will always be about collecting data,

applying analytical tools, and convincing decision makers.

THE FUTURE:

More data collectedMore help from softwareConsiderably more complexityStill the same human activity

TL;DR

EVERYBODY FORECASTS• CEOs

• Financial forecasters

• Product managers

• Supply chain engineers

• Geopolitical risk analysts

• Subject matter experts

• Futurists

• Bankers

• People getting a puppy

• Kids picking a college major

• Anyone who has babies

• Anyone who wants to retire

FORECASTING: WE ALL SUCK

AT IT

Let’s do some mid-term normative scenarios on rain

and saber-toothed tigers.

Same impulse, crappy data set, crappy tools

“What sir? You would make a ship that sails against the winds and tides? I have no time for such nonsense.”

- Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803

“It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications.

The device is inherently of no use to us.”

- Western Union, internal memo, 1876

OMG THIS TECHNOLOGY

WILL LEAD TO WORLD PEACE!

WORLD PEACE!

WORLD PEACE!

WORLD PEACE!

How did we miss this?

In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen once per million years.

OUR CURRENT PREDICAMENT: We try to fit mechanistic, incremental

forecasting into a complex, transformative world

WHERE WE GO FROM HERE: Trends driving the

future of forecasting

STRATEGIC TRENDSMoore’s Law Continues

Advanced sensor arrays

Quantum computing

Massive Data™

Advanced algorithms

Virtual reality

People remain people

INTEL FORECAST: MOORE’S LAW WILL

FUNCTION THROUGH 2021 AND BEYOND

SENSORS EVERYWHERE

MICROSOFT FORECAST: FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026

MASSIVE DATA

A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS

MEGATREND: PEOPLE WILL

REMAIN PEOPLE

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@ERICGARLAND

ERIC GARLAND