The Future of Healthcare and Big Data

Copyright © 2016. ConfidentialDo not circulate or use without express permission.

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Charles J Barnett

Charles J BarnettHealthcare Strategy and InnovationCognitiveScaleFebruary 26, 2016CognitiveScale

Agenda

Economics

Demographics

Epidemiology

Explosion of Data

Continuous Care

Big & Small Data

Latent & Real time Data

US Spending is Highly Concentrated30% of people consumed 90% of cost Per capita spend higher for ages 60+

Source: Milliman USA Health Cost Guidelines— Claim Probability Distributions, Healthcare Will Not Reform Itself, George C. Halvorson, 2009.

Source: Fischbec, Paul. “US-Europe Comparisons of Health Risk for Specific Gender-Age Groups.” Carnegie Mellon University, September 2009.

*Source: KPMG: The Accelerating Transformation of US Healthcare: Forces, Implications, and Actions – Sept 2012

US Per Capita Healthcare Spending Must Come DownCBO Estimated Government Outlays and Revenues (% of GDP)

State of Health

Percentage of the U.S. population with an emergency room visit in the past 12 months from 2000 to 2012, by age

Source: CDC; ID 184432

Note: United States

Under 18 years 18-44 years 45-64 years 65 years and over 0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2000 2009 2010 2011 2012

Per

cent

age

of U

.S. p

opul

atio

n in

%

Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 8.

United States' population projection for 2015-2060

Population projections for the United States from 2015 to 2060 (in millions)

Source: US Census Bureau; ID 183481

Note: United States; 2010

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 20600

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

321.36

333.9

346.41

358.47

369.66380.02

389.93399.8

409.87420.27

Num

ber

of r

esid

ents

in m

illion

s

Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 8.

Chronic Conditions and Disease in the U.S-$2.4 Trillion

Changing Needs for Health Care and Services

At the beginning of the twentieth century, infectious diseases were the leading cause of death worldwide. In the United State, three diseases-tuberculosis, pneumonia and diarrheal disease-caused 30% of deaths. By the end of the twentieth century, in most of the

developed world, mortality from infectious diseases had been replaced by mortality from chronic illnesses such as heart disease, cancer and stroke.” M.L. Cohen, Changing Patterns of Infectious

Disease

Chronic Conditions and Disease in the U.S

“As of 2012, about half of all adults-117 million people-have one or more chronic health condition. One of four adults has two or more chronic health conditions” (CDC)

“Eighty-four percent of all health care spending in 2006 was for the 50% of the population who have one or more chronic medical conditions.” (CDC)

“By 2020 the number of people (adults and children) with chronic conditions is projected to be 157 million people.” (Rand Corporation)

Managing costs associated with treatment of Chronic diseases will directly impact healthcare quality and costs in the US

State of Health

Chronic disease incidence rates in the United States from 1997 to 2011

Source: Brookings Institution; ID 328899

Note: United States

1997-1999 2000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-20110.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

11.7%11.4% 11.5% 11.3% 11.3%

6% 6.1% 6.3% 6.2% 6.4%

3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2%

2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6%

6.5%6.9% 7%

7.4%8%

0 0

21.5%21%

21.9%

5.4%

6.3%6.9%

7.7%

8.6%

Heart disease Coronary heart disease Heart attack Stroke Cancers Arthritis Diabetes

Inci

denc

e ra

te

Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 8.

There is no doubt. Data is the “new oil”

@cognitivescale

1 in 2business leaders don’t have access to data they need

83%of CIOs cited BI and analytics as part of their visionary plan

2.2Xmore likely that top performers use business analytics

60%of the world’s data lies outside the enterprise wall

90% of clients struggling with access to data

50-60%Gap in skills supplyand demand by 2018

If Data is the New Oil, there are no refineries, pipelines, resources ..

@cognitivescale

Data is growing at an alarming rate

Transactional & Application Data

Machine Data

Social Data

Enterprise Content

Data at Rest Data in Motion Data in Doubt Data in Many Forms

However, 80% of Data goes beyond the traditional data types

@cognitivescale

Most of this growth is in unstructured data that computers cant easily interpret

20202010

@cognitivescale

Percentage of Unstructured Data Percentage of Unstructured Data

Dark Data

Dark Data represents data that is generally neglected by enterprises

The biggest insights come from shining a light on Dark data

Deloitte

@cognitivescale

Notes in an EMR

Weather

News

Social Feeds

Maps

ReviewsPollen Counts Census Data

Ambient Data

Putting 11 Billion sensors to work is a challenge, along with deciding which of the 1.5 Trillion objects around the world

should be connected and for what purpose

The goal is not the Internet of Everything; it should be the network of some things, deliberately chosen

and purposefully deployed

. . .

Deloitte Tech Trends@cognitivescale

Data that is too big to fit on a single server

The global size of Big Data in Healthcare is estimated at 150 exabytes in 2011 and is increasing at between 1.2 and 2.4

exabytes a year.

(1 Exabyte = 250 million DVDs of data)

Peter Hinssen, editor, The Age of Data-Driven Medicine

too continuously flowing to fit into a static data warehouse

too unstructured to fit into a row-and-column database

Healthcare is continuing to shift to consumer-driven, value-based care

“Hiding within those mounds of data is knowledge that could change the life of

a patient or change the world.”— ATUL BUTTE, STANFORD SCHOOL

OF MEDICINE

Continuous Care requires new delivery vehicles that extend care, services and support into all dimensions of an individual’s life

Challenge: Chronic care

must go beyond traditional settings

Clinical

Lifestyle

Behavioral

Socio-economic

Demographic

Environmental

Hospital Clinic PortalHealth Home Tele Health Mobile

Today

Care Delivery

Car

e C

ateg

orie

s

157 million Americans will have one or more chronic conditions by 2020*84% of all health care costs are related to chronic conditions*80% of a Clinical intervention’s effectiveness is impacted by socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral factors

*Center for Disease Control

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In this new age, adoption requires a change in behavior, and mitigation of negative impacts of socioeconomic and environmental conditions

.

..

ProvidersWhich patients are at risk for chronic diseases?

How to engage patients to improve their medication compliance?

How do I monitor and replicate physician best practices?

PatientsHow do I know more about my

disease, drugs, doctors?How do I understand my lifestyle

options?How do I connect with patients

like me?

PayorsWhich members are at risk for

chronic diseases?How do I “nudge” high risk members

towards wellness and medication compliance?

How do I motivate Providers to reduce avoidable hospitalizations?

Based on the Triple Aim goal of aligning all stakeholders in increasing the engagement of patients, improving the health of populations, and reducing the per capita cost of healthcare

Individuals, Patients

& Populations

Big Data = Big Problems

Big Data deployments are surprisingly still low.

In a recent Gartner study, in 2014 only

13%of the respondents report deploying

their big data project.

Big Data is static while the world

around us is ever changing.

*Deloitte Tech Trends

Traditional Big Data Analytics:

PlanStop

Execute

Cognitive Small Data Insights

Data Capture

Machine Learning&

AI Analytics

Actionable Insights Actionable Insights

Ongoing PerformanceImprovements Made

Machine Learning&

AI Analytics

Data Capture

ThankYou!

Copyright © 2016. ConfidentialDo not circulate or use without express permission.

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