the future of influence nate elliott research director forrester research october 23, 2008

The Future of InfluenceNate ElliottResearch DirectorForrester Research

October 23, 2008

3Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.

As the nature of influence changes,

marketers must choose which type can help

them reach their goals


Agenda

• The lasting appeal of influential consumers

• Who are the new influentials?

• The changing nature of consumer influence

• How to leverage the power of influence


Marketers Have Always Used Consumer-to-Consumer Influence

Source: JupiterResearch (9/08)


Agenda






Definitions

–New Influentials are Internet users who maintain a weblog or personal homepage; who join in discussions on Internet message boards, forums, or chat rooms; or who regularly update their social networking profile page.

–Classic Influentials are Internet users who say they are the first person others come to for recommendations on music, films, TV programmes, books, consumer electronics, and technology.

–Combination Influentials are Internet users who fit into both categories.


New Influentials Exert Active Influence but Are Rarely Sought Out

Source: JupiterResearch (9/08)

!

!

!

!

!

!

?

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New Influentials Classic InfluentialsPrimarily exert active influence by

proactively giving advicePrimarily exert passive influence byresponding to requests for advice


Young Men Are Most Likely to Exert Influence on Others

Female

Male

35+

25 to 34

15 to 24New influentials

Classic influentials

Average users

Base: European online consumers

Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07)


Influential Consumers are Well-Positioned to Advise Others on Media

Listen toonline audio

Use file-sharing

Watchonline video

New influentials


Average users




Influentials are Also Early Adopters of New Consumer Technologies

Use mobileInternet

Own DTTdecoder

Play PCgames

New influentials


Average users




Agenda






New Influence Will Continue to Grow As Social Computing Becomes More Popular

Technology classicinfluential

Media classic influential

Use message boardsand forums

Maintain weblog orhomepage

2007

2006


Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Consumer Survey (9/07, 9/06)


As Users Grow Overwhelmed by Influence, They Will Look for Greater Context

Difficultyidentifying

relevant advice

Trust ofconsumer

advice

ValueOf New

Influence

Not enoughreviews

Present FuturePast

Too few centralized sources of

advice

Critical mass of reviews

Richer, deeper advice

Privacy concerns

Spread ofreviewerprofiles

Integrationof social

graph


Solicited Recommendations from Known Sources Will Carry Highest Value

Solicited RecommendationsUnsolicited Recommendations

Per

son

alR

eco

mm

end

atio

ns MEDIUM INFLUENCE

Highest volume:55% of new influentials make

personal product recommendations

Medium trust:Unsolicited recommendation

from a known source

Example: IM from friend, Facebook Beacon

Bro

adca

stR

eco

mm

end

atio

ns WEAK INFLUENCE

Lowest volume:12% of classic influentials make

broadcast product recommendations

Medium trust:Solicited recommendationfrom an unknown source

Example: Message boards, forums

STRONGEST INFLUENCE

High volume:46% of classic influentials make

personal product recommendations

High trust:Solicited recommendation

from a known source

Example: Personal request

WEAK INFLUENCE

Low volume:20% of new influentials make

broadcast product recommendations

Lowest trust:Unsolicited recommendation

from an unknown source

Example: Reviews on commerce sites


Agenda






Marketers Must Identify and Prioritize Different Types of Influentials

Brand awareness

Brand affinity

Purchase intent

Purchase

NewInfluentials

Classic Influentials


Look for Actions that Help You Understand What Type of Influence People Have

21%

24%

24%

28%

31%

38%

45%

Visit our site

Identified bysurvey

Forward ourcontent to friends

Talk about us onmessage boards

Register for oure-mail lists

Blog about us

Talk about us onsocial networks

Base: European social marketers

Source: JupiterResearch/ClickZ Social and Mobile Marketing Executive Survey (2/08)

NewInfluence

Classic Influence


Marketers Must Help Users Influence Each Other in Person, Through E-mail and IM

Post about productsonline (e.g., on a blog or

message boards)

Tell others aboutproducts on e-mail or

instant messenger

Tell others aboutproducts in person or on

the phone

New influentials


Average users




ContinentalEurope

UK

Base: European online advertisersSource: JupiterResearch/ClickZ Social and Mobile Marketing Executive Survey (2/08)

Have4%

Have Not96%

Base: European online usersSource: JupiterResearch/Ipsos

Consumer Survey (9/07)

Only Advanced Social Marketers Should Focus on Building Widgets

European Users Who Have Put Widgets on Their Own Pages

European Marketers Who Offer Branded Widgets

21%

10%


Summary

• Marketers have always leveraged influence; new technologies have introduced new forms of influence

• New influentials are proactive, while classic influentials are reactive

• As users become overwhelmed by influence, they will look for ways to assign value to influential messages

• Recommendations from known sources will always carry the highest value

• Marketers must set their goals, then reach out to the influentials who can help them achieve those goals


Thank you

Nate Elliott

+49 (0)30 40 50 4889

[email protected]

twitter.com/nate_elliott

www.forrester.com

the future of influence nate elliott research director forrester research october 23, 2008

Documents

entire contents

new influence

power of influence

consumer electronics

consumer influencesource

active influence

nature of influence

definitionsnew influentials