the future of mobile (i.e. everything) futurist speaker gerd leonhard
Post on 15-Sep-2014
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The slides for my presentation at Mobile Convention Amsterdam May 23 2013 see http://www.mobileconventionamsterdam.nl/ Next Five years in Mobile “Marketing as we know it is over. More than ever mobile devices are becoming our ears, eyes and brains. ‘Nowness’ takes its toll.” Says Gerd Leonhard, (media)Futurist and one of the keynote speakers during Mobile Convention Amsterdam on the 22nd and 23th of May in the Beurs van Berlage. Leonhard states that marketers are nowadays looking at gauging feelings and pleasure by using electronic gadgets that can read brain activity. Leonhard reveals several interesting mobile developments in the future, for example about Google Glass and Over-the-top-content (OTT), what these developments mean for consumers and marketers and whether or not ‘offline’ the new luxury is.TRANSCRIPT
The next 5 years in Mobile* i.e. everything
‘Business as Usual’ is dead
Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013Nest Smart Meter App
Image via Ericsson
Image via Ericsson
A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to come from products and services that don’t even exist today
The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is nearMediaTelecomBankingMoneyMedical Pharma
Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter
Cloud Culture: Abundant...EverythingPhoto by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH
Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is endingReed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Future of Netflix: Movies + TV: GQ via Quartz.com
“Hastings call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainment ecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”
The point of managed dissatisfaction is waiting. You’re supposed to wait for your show that comes on Wednesday at 8 p.m., wait for the new season, see all the ads everywhere for the new season, talk to your friends at the office about how excited you are...”
The Internet of Everything
1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’
Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube
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Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
http://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/enterprise-d-in-hd-captains-log-next.html
‘Business as Usual’ is deadETA: 2017
Used to be Is (almost) Soon for some Beyond soon but quite likely
Mobility (R)Evolutions: Huge social, economic, ethical implications
Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally
2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere
Most products become services
From ownership to access
Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpf
Being human in a ‘totally digital’ society
Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution
Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity ☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile devices ☯ Cloud computing culture ☯ Video is the new text ☯ Social-everything ☯ Ultra-smart electronic agents ☯ The Internet of Things / M2M
=
Mobile Devices are our external brains
Total Convergence
Online
Offline
Human
Machine
ThingsEventsInformationData
Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs
0
23
45
68
90
Today 2015 2020 2040
Machines, Software Agents, AI, Robots Trad. HumanONLY Human * supported by Machines
Source: Gerd Leonhard Projection
Traditional human labor will shift to machines, dramatic rise of highly ie only-human work
Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale
Most of us already are or will become Knowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers
...using real-time information and intelligence supplied by an exponentially growing digital network that will leverage the IoT / IoE and Smart Machines
Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms
Next: fabricated realities...?Realness will prevail
Brands: make sense not noise:)
Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/
Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_archive.html
Locked LooseBusiness Models: the direction is clear!
Liquid
Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized
Data is the new Oil (again:::)
If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do things differently, this time
The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipation
Volunteered Observed Inferred
Personal Data. Granular Permissions. Timely Knowledge. Precise Location Awareness. Highly
Contextual. Totally Realtime = Predictive Powers.
37
The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)
We are being searched...sought-
out...found
Most technologies that we used to direct will start
conducting themselves
Searching for something
Informationseeking us
i.e. we are ‘being searched’
Everything becomes:DynamicReal-time
SocialMobileLocalFluid
Predictive
In order for any of this to work, we will need a
Gigantic Opt-in
http://www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-sold-anything/
We need to consider the social implications of IoT and IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies
Let’s not kill the golden goose
Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXUR
Do we really need more‘intelligentmarketing’
just to create the next
Generation of Human
ConsumptionMachines...?
Attention Economy ☯ Intention Economy
Via Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Economy grows around buyers, not sellers. It leverages the simple fact that buyers are the first source of money, and that they come ready-made. You don't need advertising to make them" Despite the advancement internet businesses are still seller oriented.
Searls gives an example of intention economy scenario:
"A car rental customer should be able to say to the car rental market, 'I'll be skiing in Park City from March 20-25. I want to rent a 4-wheel drive SUV. I belong to Avis Wizard, Budget FastBreak and Hertz 1 Club. I don't want to pay up front for gas or
get any insurance. What can any of you companies do for me?' — and have the sellers compete for the buyer's business."
Yet we must retain places like this
48
And we will certainly need seriously reliable
Ways to Opt-Out
“We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility - but with the technological capability of adults”
Nick Bostrom (Oxford University)BBC News - How are humans going to become extinct?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22002530
Faustian Bargains everywhere?
Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtEx
A love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?
5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back
From mousetraps to magnets
Summary & Key Take-Aways
Thanks for your time and attention!Visit GerdCloud.com to download this PDF
(and many others incl. my free books)